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In a paper prepared for the BER’s Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab, former National Treasury economist Andrew Donaldson charts the evolution of South Africa’s pension fund industry spanning the past 40 years. He shows that the increase in assets under management has been accompanied by a relative decline in investment in public sector debt. The analysis raises important questions about sustainable financing of growth and development.
Read MoreThe following slides accompany the research paper with the same title.
This comprehensive document, "Pick a Bird. Any Bird: Scenarios for the South African economy (2026-2030)" outlines a detailed route to economic success: growth that lifts South Africans out of poverty and creates a platform for sustained long-term prosperity.
Read MoreThis slide deck contains captivating images created by cartoonist Carlos Amato for the BER's "Pick a Bird. Any Bird" scenarios project. They show what the South African economy would look like under the Hadeda, the Marabou and the African Fish Eagle scenarios.
Read MoreThe BER commissioned Prof Johan Fourie, Chair in Economics, History and Policy at Stellenbosch University, to explore why some countries achieve sustained economic growth and create jobs while others stagnate. He highlights three lessons for South Africa: crises can create reform opportunities if a credible political agreement is in place; the order in which reforms are implemented matters; and strong institutions are essential to ensure reforms last.
Read MoreThe Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is introducing a new reform barometer. We assess whether structural reforms are translating into measurable improvements in economic performance
South Africa’s mining industry is typically seen as a sunset sector. However, its decline is largely due to policy, regulatory and bureaucratic obstacles rather than geological exhaustion. These binding constraints have significantly reduced the sector’s potential. Fix them, and SA’s great mineral potential could contribute significantly to faster economic growth. Mining could be a sunrise industry once again.
Read MoreThe authority of GDP is hard to escape, but there is a growing need to broaden our gauge of economic activity. This note makes the case for complementing GDP with a transparent, high-frequency “barometer” as a sense-check of South Africa's economy.
Read MoreThe 2020 electricity regulatory reforms, intended to allow municipalities to procure from independent power producers (IPPs), were seen as a breakthrough for energy security. However, by early 2025, not a single municipality had successfully added any new kilowatt-hours to the grid from IPPs for long-term use.
Read MoreThis is the second in our series of BER Research Notes examining the effect of fast and affordable internet on township communities. Our previous note showed that home fibre encouraged online job search among Kayamandi’s labour force. In this note, we test whether that behavioural shift translated into better employment outcomes. We find that, although home fibre did not address structural unemployment, it supported transitions from casual work to more stable, full-time jobs and increased the likelihood of self-employment among respondents with home fibre.
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