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After a public fight over the inflation target, the South African Reserve Bank and National Treasury now face an oil price shock from the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They must coordinate, using temporary fuel-levy relief to curb inflation without breaking the bank. This article first appeared in News 24 on April 27.
Read MoreTo achieve a sustainable recovery in investment and growth, South Africa needs to mobilise patient capital on stable, affordable terms. However, in what has arguably been a substantial misallocation of capital, the country’s collective savings have been systematically steered, over the past 20 years, towards equities and offshore investments at the expense of domestic government bonds. This article first appeared in Business Day on 17 April 2026
Read MoreThere is consensus in SA that the fastest way to raise the economic growth rate is to accelerate the pace of economic reform. But to do this, the Government of National Unity (GNU) needs to really work. Other countries offer lessons for assessing whether the GNU is on a path toward prosperity or stagnation. This article, written by Prof Johan Fourie and Claire Bisseker, first appeared in Business Day on 7 April 2026.
Read MoreSouth Africa’s new National Director of Public Prosecutions, Andy Mothibi, has just two years to achieve what has eluded reformers for over two decades: full independence for the National Prosecuting Authority. Despite broad political support and longstanding recommendations, progress has stalled, leaving the NPA vulnerable to administrative and financial control. This analysis explores whether meaningful reform is finally within reach and what’s at stake for the country’s criminal justice system if it isn’t.
Read MoreGlobal tensions are shaking the economic outlook, with rising fuel prices, inflation risks, and uncertain growth paths ahead for South Africa. While conditions at home are improving on the surface, the recovery remains fragile and exposed to external shocks. The real test isn’t the crisis itself—but whether the country has built the resilience to withstand it.
Read MoreFor firms deciding where to invest, for the Reserve Bank setting interest rates, and for a government setting its budget, more immediate ways of measuring economic activity would be useful. SA needs to create a real-time barometer, a composite index that goes beyond GDP. Fortunately, it has the tools to do so. This article, written by Johan and Helanya Fourie, first appeared in the Business Day on 6 March 2026.
Read MoreThe 2026 budget marks a turning point. South Africans remain sceptical, but with fiscal credibility up and funding stress down, the Holy Grail of debt stabilisation is finally within reach. This article, written by Claire Bisseker, first appeared as the cover story in the Financial Mail on 5 March 2026.
Read MoreRamaphosa’s reform push is finally gaining momentum. As a result, SA is currently enjoying a more stable macroeconomic backdrop than it has in years. But will it last or will the president be recalled by his party before his term is up, like his two predecessors. The BER’s analysts think Ramaphosa is just hitting his stride and will avoid becoming a lame duck. This article written by Natasha Marrian and Claire Bisseker, first appeared in The Business Day on 20 February 2026
Read MoreSeveral commentators are arguing that SA has turned the corner fiscally, but though the country finds itself with more wiggle-room in the run-up to the national budget, it is far from clear that we are winning the war against debt. This article written by Claire Bisseker, first appeared in the Business Day on 6 February 2026.
Read MoreThe latest First National Bank/BER civil construction confidence numbers suggest that infrastructure is picking up. If reform momentum accelerates, 2026 could be the year in which we finally see a more meaningful lift off in fixed investment. This article first appeared in the Business Day on 23 January 2026
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