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The global energy shock, due to the war between the US and Iran, had a negative impact on the inflation expectations of all four social groups. For the professional groups, current-year expectations surged from 3.6% to 4.4%. Similarly, their five-year expectations increased from 3.6% to 4.1%. Household inflation expectations increased further following a marginal uptick in the first quarter; one-year expectations were measured at 6.0% (5.4% previously), while five-year expectations rose from 8.4% to 9.1%.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index was steady at 43 in 2026Q2. The effect of weaker activity growth and keener tendering price competition on sentiment this quarter was offset by stable overall profitability and somewhat better order books.
Read MoreConfidence in the Other Services sector declined by 4 points, reaching 51 in the second quarter of 2026 and one point above its long-term average. This decline in confidence coincided with deteriorating business conditions driven by rising geopolitical uncertainty and growing concerns about the domestic operating environment.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dropped from a 15-month high of -7 in the first quarter of 2026 to -19 in the second quarter. The 12-point decline in consumer confidence indicates a notable reduction in consumers' willingness to spend as higher domestic fuel costs weighed on household budgets, particularly the high- and middle-income groups. These dynamics are likely to lead to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in real consumer spending during the second quarter of 2026, with discretionary spending expected to face substantial downward pressure.
Read MoreAgainst the backdrop of surging fuel costs and a subsequent resurgence of inflationary pressures in the broader economy, and tighter monetary policy. Business confidence among retailers continued to fade into the second quarter, falling by five percentage points (% pts) to 31%.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to 38 in 2026Q2, from 42 in 2026Q1. The softer sentiment reading reflects the fact that both activity and overall profitability weakened substantially this quarter.
Read MoreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell by 8 points to 39 in the second quarter of 2026,reversing the gains recorded over the previous two quarters and leaving the index just below its long-term average of 40. While the recovery in business sentiment has lost momentum, importantly, confidence remains well above the recent low of 27 reached in 2023Q2.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index declined to 43 in 2026Q1, from 52 in 2025Q4, returning to its 2025Q3 level. Sentiment weakened despite relatively supportive trends in activity, profitability and order books when compared to long-term averages.
Read MoreThe BER has modelled three options for the South African economy (2026-2030) - the Hadeda, the Marabou and the African Fish Eagle scenarios - to illustrate the choices that could allow the country to enjoy the high road to economic success and how to avoid idling in low gear or taking the low road to economic ruin.
Read MoreAfter recovering from -13 to -9 index points in the fourth quarter of 2025, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) extended its gains to reach -7 in the first quarter of 2026. Buoyant high-income sentiment underpinned this improvement, though geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict loom.
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