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In the fourth quarter of 2025 (the first survey after the inflation target changed to 3%), the two- and five-year inflation expectations of the three professional groups, on average, fell to a record low of 3.7% (from 4.2% before). Next-year expectations were also down by a significant margin (0.4% pts) to 3.8%. Household inflation expectations resumed its downward trend, after a brief pause in the third quarter; one-year expectations were observed at 5.3% (5.5% previously).
Read MoreRetailers’ business confidence jumped from 32% to 43% during the fourth quarter of 2025, bouncing back above the long-term average to align with levels seen during the first half of the year. This significant recovery in retailers optimism points to solid consumer spending momentum during the fourth quarter.
Read MoreA rise in consumer confidence suggests retail tills will jingle loudly this festive season, as the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rebounded to -9 index points in the fourth quarter, after falling from -10 to -13 in the third quarter of 2025.
Read MoreAfter slipping one index point to 35 in 3Q2025, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index increased to 43 in 4Q2025. This is, along with 4Q2023, the best reading in a decade and higher than the long-term average for the series of 40. A 21-point increase in sentiment among hardware retailers boosted the composite index. However, the uptick in activity among main contractors, led by residential builders, and activity among architects is also encouraging.
Read MoreFollowing two consecutive quarters of declines, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by five points to 44 in the fourth quarter of 2025, putting confidence three points above its long-term average. This means that 44% of respondents are satisfied with prevailing business conditions.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained two points to register a level of 43 in 2025Q3. The business mood improved despite a marked weakness in activity growth. However, this is likely due to base effects and actual spending on civil construction is unlikely to be as downbeat.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) slipped from -10 to -13 in the third quarter of 2025, moving further below the relatively positive levels observed during the second half of 2024.
Other Services confidence ticked up by one point in 2025Q3. However, at 46 index points, it remains below the long-run average, and underlying activity indicators remain weak. While overall confidence held (more or less) steady in the Other Services sector in Q3, the underlying conditions do not support this result. A weak consumer and challenging operating environment continue to weigh on sentiment in this sector.
Read MoreThe latest BER Retail Survey revealed that business confidence among retailers retreated to 32% in 2025Q3, down from 42% in Q2. This 10-point drop brings confidence back below the long-term average (40%) for the first time in a year and puts the latest reading at a similar level to those at the start of 2024.
Read MoreIn the third quarter of 2025, on average, the three social groups lowered their longer-term inflation expectations. They now expect headline inflation in the next five years to average 4.2% (compared to 4.4% before). This is the lowest forecast since the addition of this question to the survey (in 2011). Near-term expectations were down by 0.1% pt for both 2025 and 2026, to 3.8% and 4.2%. The one and five-year-ahead expectation is thus equal, at 4.2%.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a level of 35 in 2025Q3, from 36 in 2025Q2. This marks the third consecutive decline in building sentiment. Moreover, the index has been moving within a narrow – albeit low – band since the middle of last year. This means that, while sentiment in the industry isn’t tanking, there is little lifting the business mood across the building value chain
Read MoreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) slipped further by one point to 39 following a five-point decline in the second quarter of 2025. This is three points below the long-term average level of 42, and implies that just over 60% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. The underlying results point to an economy that is muddling through, with many activity and demand indicators in line with 20-year average levels.
Read MoreThe second quarter survey reflects a broad-based and significant decline in the inflation expectations of the survey respondents. Inflation expectations of all three social groups, (business people, trade union representatives and analysts) declined, with the downward adjustment extending across the forecast horizon. On average, the respondents expect that headline consumer inflation will be 3.9% during 2025, then rise gradually to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index declined for the third consecutive quarter to register a level of 41 in 2025Q2. This means that just under 60% of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.
Read MoreAfter plunging from -6 to -20 index points during the first quarter of 2025, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered some lost ground, rebounding to -10 in the second quarter.
In the second quarter of 2025, the confidence reading in Other Services fell to 45, below its long-run average again. While the Other Services survey has been relatively upbeat over the last year, boosted by interest rate easing, a more stable government, and a robust tourism season, many of these factors started to fade during the survey period. This weighed on activity and eroded confidence in this sector.
Read MoreThe BER’s Retail Survey revealed business confidence amongst retailers fell by 8 percentage points (%pts) to 42% in 2025Q2, registering a second successive quarterly decline but remaining above the long-term average. This trend suggests a moderation in retail sales growth, particularly as two-pot withdrawal-fuelled spending winds down.
Read MoreAfter gaining one point in 2025Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index shed five points to register a level of 36 in 2025Q2. Overall building activity was lower this quarter. However, this was disproportionately affected by much weaker residential building activity. While also lower, non-residential building activity remains somewhat more resilient.
Read MoreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence index (BCI) declined by five points to 40 in the second quarter of 2025, after the recovery that started in the first half of 2024 stalled in the first quarter. This implies that only four out of ten business respondents in the most cyclically sensitive sectors of the economy were satisfied with prevailing business conditions.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed three points to register a level of 45 in 1Q2025. Weaker overall profitability and business conditions largely account for the deterioration in sentiment. Activity, however, improved while the rating of the lack of new demand as a constraint was moderately lower.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plunged from -6 to -20 index points during the first quarter of 2025, as tax shock rocks consumer sentiment.
Retailer confidence declined marginally from 54% to 50% in the first quarter. This suggests a slowdown in positive momentum, but confidence still remains 10 percentage points (%pts) above the long-term average.
Read MoreIn the first quarter of this year, the survey respondents, on average, downwardly revised their forecast of headline consumer inflation during 2025 to 4.3%, from 4.5%. They foresee it rising gradually to 4.7% in 2027. Over the next five years, they expect it to stabilise at 4.7%, slightly above the targeted midpoint. The one-year-ahead inflation expectations of households fell to 5.7%, from 6.6% previously. It is now the lowest it has been in three years.
Read MoreBusiness confidence in the Other Services sector declined by 5 points to 52 in 2025Q1, despite an increase in business volumes and improved business conditions. However, at 52, confidence remains at its long-term average, indicating a balanced outlook—neither overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic. This level also means that just over half of respondents are satisfied with current business conditions. However, with the exception of transport, confidence is still either at or slightly better than the long-term average level.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index remained relatively stable in 2025Q1, gaining one point to record a level of 41. The results were mixed in terms of activity but, overall, reflected a sector which saw a slight worsening in current work. Near-term prospects for work, however, are encouraging from both contactors’ own expectation and also from the better activity reported by architects which reflects the building pipeline.
Read MoreFollowing three consecutive increases, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained unchanged at 45 index points in the first quarter of 2025. While a touch above the long-term average reading of 43 points, and well above the sentiment level recorded at the start of last year, it is worrying that four of the five sectors saw confidence slip relative to the fourth quarter of last year. New vehicle dealers saw a 29-point surge in confidence, which offset the decline in confidence from all other sectors
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