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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
This week’s review explores how persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated and narrowing the SARB’s room for policy patience. We assess the implications for inflation, interest rates, and the potential role of further fuel levy relief, alongside key global data releases. We also highlight a renewed focus on domestic political and institutional risks, including developments in policing and growing electoral pressures in KwaZulu-Natal.
Read MoreThis week’s review explores how tentative progress in US-Iran talks has lifted market sentiment and eased immediate energy risks, even as underlying supply constraints persist. We unpack the implications for oil markets and South Africa’s fuel prices, alongside key global data releases and a renewed focus on domestic political developments, including the sentencing of EFF leader Julius Malema and evolving dynamics within the DA and the ANC-SACP alliance.
Read MoreThis week’s review examines how a fragile Iran ceasefire has eased immediate worst-case risks, but left oil markets, shipping flows and global sentiment highly sensitive to further developments. We explore the implications for commodity prices, financial markets and South Africa’s outlook, alongside key global data releases and important domestic political developments, including reforms to professionalise the public service, evolving coalition dynamics and expectations around a potential Cabinet reshuffle.
Read MoreThis week’s review unpacks how fragile Middle East diplomacy is driving volatility in global commodity markets, with oil prices rising sharply and sentiment swinging between optimism and risk-off caution. It also explores the SARB’s more cautious policy stance in response to supply-side inflation pressures, alongside growing domestic political risks and weakening confidence in South Africa’s democratic institutions.
Read MoreA sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict sent oil prices higher this week, rattling markets and complicating the inflation outlook. We explore the knock-on effects for central banks, financial markets and South Africa’s fuel prices and policy path. The review also covers local inflation trends, political developments and the key data releases shaping the near-term outlook.
Read MoreThis week’s Weekly Review examines the global market reaction to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices above $100/barrel and heightened concerns about inflation and growth. We also cover South Africa’s stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP outcome and renewed diplomatic tensions with the US.
Read MoreGeopolitical tensions escalated sharply this week following military strikes involving the US, Israel and Iran, pushing oil prices higher and triggering bouts of volatility in global financial markets. Meanwhile, domestic data offered some encouraging signals for the South African economy, with business confidence rising further and vehicle sales remaining robust. However, manufacturing conditions deteriorated again in February, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery.
Read MoreSouth African markets rallied in the wake of the 2026 National Budget, as a commodity-driven revenue overrun allowed government to scrap proposed tax increases and reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. The rand strengthened, bond yields fell and equities advanced, reflecting improved investor confidence despite a slightly wider deficit path over the medium term. Globally, uncertainty around US tariff policy unsettled markets after a Supreme Court ruling forced a reset of President Trump’s trade measures. A new universal tariff, legal challenges and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, kept investors on edge, even as global equities ended the week higher
Read MoreThe week was characterised by cautious optimism ahead of the National Budget, following a smooth SONA and signs of a modest improvement in the fiscal outlook. Globally, oil markets were rattled by renewed tensions around Iran, while the Fed struck a hawkish tone, keeping interest rate uncertainty elevated.
Read MoreThe week was dominated by politics at home and abroad. Domestically, President Cyril Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to announce a Presidency-led overhaul of SA’s criminal justice system. At the same time, residents of Johannesburg continued to grapple with an escalating water crisis, prompting Ramaphosa to take personal charge of a newly established National Water Crisis Committee.
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