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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
Financial markets have largely looked past ongoing geopolitical tensions, shifting their focus instead to the rapid recovery in global oil supply and the implications for inflation and interest rates.
Read MoreMarkets have rapidly priced out the Middle East war premium, sending oil prices back to pre-war levels and paving the way for sizeable fuel price cuts in South Africa from 1 July. While the outlook for inflation has improved, the focus is now shifting to inflation expectations and whether recent geopolitical optimism proves justified.
Read MoreMarkets spent the week transitioning from pricing war to pricing peace. Investors have responded positively to the latest US-Iran memorandum of agreement, despite many of the underlying issues remaining unresolved. This week's BER Weekly examines the implications for oil prices, inflation and monetary policy, including Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting as Chair and a noticeably more hawkish Fed. We also assess the latest SA inflation data, growing tensions within the GNU and the political and security risks surrounding the 30 June anti-immigration deadline.
Read MoreMarkets spent the week navigating the increasingly blurred line between military escalation and diplomacy as hopes of a US-Iran deal grew despite fresh attacks across the region. This week’s review explores the implications for oil prices, inflation and interest rates, including the ECB’s first rate hike in nearly three years and shifting expectations around US monetary policy. We also assess stronger-than-expected SA GDP growth, growing anti-immigration tensions ahead of the 30 June deadline and the political challenges facing the ANC in the run-up to November’s local government election.
Read MoreSA business confidence faltered in the second quarter as higher fuel costs and rising geopolitical uncertainty weighed on sentiment, even as markets became increasingly optimistic about the prospects of a US-Iran deal. This week’s review unpacks the latest developments in the Middle East, the implications of renewed US protectionist rhetoric and the outlook for inflation and interest rates. We also assess the sharp deterioration in business confidence, growing anti-immigration tensions and the political pressures facing President Cyril Ramaphosa ahead of November’s local government election.
Read MoreMarkets welcomed growing signs that the US and Iran may be moving closer to a deal, helping ease oil prices and support risk appetite. This week’s review assesses the implications of the SARB’s precautionary rate hike and Moody’s revision of SA's outlook to positive. We also examine the latest developments in the Middle East and the political dynamics shaping the run-up to the 2026 local government election.
Read MoreFinancial markets ended the week somewhat calmer as hopes of a renewed US-Iran deal gained momentum, even as global bond markets continued to signal concern about persistent inflation and structurally higher interest rates. We assess the implications of renewed diplomatic activity involving the US, China and Russia, alongside tightening oil market conditions and rising pressure on central banks. Locally, attention shifted increasingly toward Johannesburg’s deteriorating financial position, mounting Eskom arrears and the growing link between municipal fiscal stress and broader sovereign risk perceptions.
Read MoreThis week’s review explores how fading ceasefire optimism and renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have shifted market focus back toward inflation and interest rate risks. We unpack the implications for global oil and refined fuel markets, central bank expectations and financial markets, alongside key domestic data releases, including a sharp deterioration in SA’s labour market. We also assess the political implications of the Constitutional Court’s Phala Phala ruling, mounting pressure on President Cyril Ramaphosa and his firing of Social Development Minister Sisisi Tolashe amid corruption and nepotism allegations.
Read MoreThis week’s review explores how growing optimism around a possible US-Iran agreement has supported global equity markets and eased oil prices, even as bond markets continue to signal concern about persistent inflation and geopolitical risk. We unpack the implications for energy markets, commodities and South African assets, alongside key global data releases and mounting political tensions at home, including anti-immigrant protests, Johannesburg’s deepening fiscal crisis and the formal start of the local government election season.
Read MoreThis week’s review explores how persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping oil prices elevated and narrowing the SARB’s room for policy patience. We assess the implications for inflation, interest rates, and the potential role of further fuel levy relief, alongside key global data releases. We also highlight a renewed focus on domestic political and institutional risks, including developments in policing and growing electoral pressures in KwaZulu-Natal.
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