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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
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This week’s review unpacks how fragile Middle East diplomacy is driving volatility in global commodity markets, with oil prices rising sharply and sentiment swinging between optimism and risk-off caution. It also explores the SARB’s more cautious policy stance in response to supply-side inflation pressures, alongside growing domestic political risks and weakening confidence in South Africa’s democratic institutions.
Read MoreA sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict sent oil prices higher this week, rattling markets and complicating the inflation outlook. We explore the knock-on effects for central banks, financial markets and South Africa’s fuel prices and policy path. The review also covers local inflation trends, political developments and the key data releases shaping the near-term outlook.
Read MoreThis week’s Weekly Review examines the global market reaction to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed oil prices above $100/barrel and heightened concerns about inflation and growth. We also cover South Africa’s stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP outcome and renewed diplomatic tensions with the US.
Read MoreGeopolitical tensions escalated sharply this week following military strikes involving the US, Israel and Iran, pushing oil prices higher and triggering bouts of volatility in global financial markets. Meanwhile, domestic data offered some encouraging signals for the South African economy, with business confidence rising further and vehicle sales remaining robust. However, manufacturing conditions deteriorated again in February, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery.
Read MoreSouth African markets rallied in the wake of the 2026 National Budget, as a commodity-driven revenue overrun allowed government to scrap proposed tax increases and reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. The rand strengthened, bond yields fell and equities advanced, reflecting improved investor confidence despite a slightly wider deficit path over the medium term. Globally, uncertainty around US tariff policy unsettled markets after a Supreme Court ruling forced a reset of President Trump’s trade measures. A new universal tariff, legal challenges and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, kept investors on edge, even as global equities ended the week higher
Read MoreThe week was characterised by cautious optimism ahead of the National Budget, following a smooth SONA and signs of a modest improvement in the fiscal outlook. Globally, oil markets were rattled by renewed tensions around Iran, while the Fed struck a hawkish tone, keeping interest rate uncertainty elevated.
Read MoreThe week was dominated by politics at home and abroad. Domestically, President Cyril Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to announce a Presidency-led overhaul of SA’s criminal justice system. At the same time, residents of Johannesburg continued to grapple with an escalating water crisis, prompting Ramaphosa to take personal charge of a newly established National Water Crisis Committee.
Read MoreThe past few days presented a story of abrupt reversals. After precious metals raced to record highs, last Friday brought a historic rout, with gold tumbling and commodity markets swinging wildly. The turmoil coincided with a major political development in the US, where Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Trump’s nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding another layer of uncertainty to the global policy outlook. Locally, Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen announced that he will not seek a third term, clearing the way for a leadership transition ahead of the 2026 local government elections.
Read MoreCentral banks paused, markets moved sharply, and geopolitics stayed front and centre this week. The SARB and Fed both held rates as policymakers emphasised caution amid persistent uncertainty, while a weaker dollar fuelled large swings in precious metals and supported the rand. Domestically, the focus also turned to the criminal justice system, as a new head at the NPA will inherit a complex agenda amid heightened scrutiny of crime, corruption and institutional reform.
Read MoreGlobal markets faced another bout of volatility as geopolitical tensions flared and policy uncertainty lingered. We unpack the latest developments around US trade threats, global bond market moves, and why the rand continued to outperform. We also examine key domestic political developments, including the resumption of the Madlanga Commission, and preview the week ahead with SARB and Fed policy decisions in focus.
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