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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
In-depth analysis of important political developments in South Africa.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
Politics, markets and macroeconomics collided this week. Elections in Brazil and Israel shifted the political backdrop, while Alphabet’s sharp sell-off revived questions about the economics of the AI investment boom. In the US, strong GDP growth and persistent inflation strengthened the case for another Fed hike. Closer to home, Stats SA’s GDP rebasing showed that the SA economy is larger than previously measured, but has grown more slowly in recent years. Attention now turns to next week’s US midterms and SA local government election.
Read MoreDomestic developments were relatively supportive this week: September inflation surprised slightly to the downside, the MTBPS confirmed that government debt has stabilised and SA bonds rallied on lower issuance and a new buyback programme. But renewed pressure on global oil prices remains a major risk. Meanwhile, with the local government election approaching, coalition arithmetic is moving to the fore, particularly in Johannesburg and Gauteng.
Read MoreUS inflation surprised to the upside in September as higher gasoline prices amplified the energy shock, while SA mining production weakened further. This week’s Review also looks ahead to the MTBPS, where the near-term fiscal picture remains relatively supportive but weaker real growth, persistent inflation pressure and the design of the proposed fiscal anchor will be key issues. We also assess the outlook for possible fuel-price relief, global bond markets and the latest political developments.
Read MoreDomestic economic data disappointed this week, with rising fuel costs weighing on private-sector activity and manufacturing production. Globally, however, stronger retail sales in the eurozone and higher industrial production in Germany pointed to some resilience amid the ongoing fuel price shock. Similarly, sustained expansion in the US services sector suggested that the economy continues to hold up. The full Weekly considers whether this resilience can withstand a further escalation in the Iran war and the resulting surge in oil prices.
Read MoreOil-market pressure has started to ease as crude flows through and around the Strait of Hormuz recover, but Brent remains elevated and global bond yields have risen sharply. This week’s review looks at the implications for SA, including the rand, domestic bond yields, the latest Absa PMI, the SARB’s Quarterly Bulletin and another sizeable fuel-price increase next week.
Read MoreOil remains above $100/bbl, the Fed and BoJ hiked, but SA’s weak demand backdrop and easing inflation expectations argue for patience.
Oil surged back above $100/bbl this week as renewed US-Iran hostilities and tighter shipping conditions revived concerns about a more persistent energy shock. At the same time, global bond yields climbed further, while SA’s Q2 GDP contraction increased downside risk to the BER’s 2026 growth forecast. The Review also looks at the ANC’s candidate-list court battle, Cosatu’s electoral dilemma and renewed inflation pressure abroad.
Read MoreRenewed fighting between Iran and the US has pushed oil prices higher again and reversed some of the recent optimism around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, global bond yields remain under pressure amid persistent fiscal concerns and expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer. In SA, the rand has remained resilient despite the latest BER business surveys pointing to weak current conditions. This Weekly also looks at the Phala Phala court challenge and the Madlanga Commission.
Read MoreThis week’s BER Weekly Review looks at the US escalation of its economic campaign against Iran, tentative progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and why oil prices nevertheless remain vulnerable to renewed disruption. We also assess the continued strength of AI investment following Nvidia’s latest results, persistent pressure in global bond markets, the escalation in US-Canada trade tensions, and the rand’s recent strength.
Read MoreThis week’s BER Weekly Review looks at renewed pressure in global bond markets, the US Treasury’s decision to increase long-dated bond buybacks, and the implications of higher oil prices for inflation. In SA, softer July CPI offered some relief, while the Government-Business Partnership shifted attention towards sector-specific opportunities in mining, agriculture and tourism.
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