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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
Oil prices rebounded as hopes of a near-term Strait of Hormuz agreement faded, while softer US inflation and labour data pushed near-term rate expectations lower even as long-term Treasury yields remained under pressure. In SA, the rand benefited from favourable interest-rate differentials, but weak jobs, mining and manufacturing data underscored the subdued domestic growth picture.
Read MoreGlobal markets rebounded as investors grew more hopeful that a deal could ease disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices sharply lower. But the proposed arrangement remains politically fraught, while at home, new polling highlights the growing role MKP could play in shaping coalition governments after the 2026 local elections.
Read MoreThe Middle East conflict widened further this week, even as diplomatic efforts reportedly continued, leaving oil markets volatile. The US Federal Reserve offered little guidance on its policy path, contributing to higher long-term bond yields. In South Africa, major developments at IDAC and the Public Investment Corporation highlighted the tension between institutional weakness and ongoing efforts to rebuild governance.
Read MoreThe SARB held interest rates despite higher inflation, oil climbed above $100/bbl, and political turmoil intensified around the PIC, the Madlanga Commission and Phala Phala. We unpack the week's key economic and political developments.
Read MoreThe Strait blockade has returned just days before the SARB's next interest rate decision, once again pushing oil prices higher and complicating the inflation outlook. In this week's Weekly Review, we assess what the renewed tensions in the Middle East mean for monetary policy and what the latest global data say about the world economy. We also examine the governance crisis at the PIC and review the week's key economic developments.
Read MoreTreasury's decision to withhold funding from Johannesburg highlights the growing macroeconomic consequences of municipal dysfunction, while renewed Middle East tensions remind markets that geopolitical risks remain far from resolved. We also assess the latest manufacturing data, global inflation developments and what to watch in the week ahead.
Read MoreFinancial markets have largely looked past ongoing geopolitical tensions, shifting their focus instead to the rapid recovery in global oil supply and the implications for inflation and interest rates.
Read MoreMarkets have rapidly priced out the Middle East war premium, sending oil prices back to pre-war levels and paving the way for sizeable fuel price cuts in South Africa from 1 July. While the outlook for inflation has improved, the focus is now shifting to inflation expectations and whether recent geopolitical optimism proves justified.
Read MoreMarkets spent the week transitioning from pricing war to pricing peace. Investors have responded positively to the latest US-Iran memorandum of agreement, despite many of the underlying issues remaining unresolved. This week's BER Weekly examines the implications for oil prices, inflation and monetary policy, including Kevin Warsh's first Federal Reserve meeting as Chair and a noticeably more hawkish Fed. We also assess the latest SA inflation data, growing tensions within the GNU and the political and security risks surrounding the 30 June anti-immigration deadline.
Read MoreMarkets spent the week navigating the increasingly blurred line between military escalation and diplomacy as hopes of a US-Iran deal grew despite fresh attacks across the region. This week’s review explores the implications for oil prices, inflation and interest rates, including the ECB’s first rate hike in nearly three years and shifting expectations around US monetary policy. We also assess stronger-than-expected SA GDP growth, growing anti-immigration tensions ahead of the 30 June deadline and the political challenges facing the ANC in the run-up to November’s local government election.
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