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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
Renewed fighting between Iran and the US has pushed oil prices higher again and reversed some of the recent optimism around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, global bond yields remain under pressure amid persistent fiscal concerns and expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer. In SA, the rand has remained resilient despite the latest BER business surveys pointing to weak current conditions. This Weekly also looks at the Phala Phala court challenge and the Madlanga Commission.
Read MoreThis week’s BER Weekly Review looks at the US escalation of its economic campaign against Iran, tentative progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and why oil prices nevertheless remain vulnerable to renewed disruption. We also assess the continued strength of AI investment following Nvidia’s latest results, persistent pressure in global bond markets, the escalation in US-Canada trade tensions, and the rand’s recent strength.
Read MoreThis week’s BER Weekly Review looks at renewed pressure in global bond markets, the US Treasury’s decision to increase long-dated bond buybacks, and the implications of higher oil prices for inflation. In SA, softer July CPI offered some relief, while the Government-Business Partnership shifted attention towards sector-specific opportunities in mining, agriculture and tourism.
Read MoreOil prices rebounded as hopes of a near-term Strait of Hormuz agreement faded, while softer US inflation and labour data pushed near-term rate expectations lower even as long-term Treasury yields remained under pressure. In SA, the rand benefited from favourable interest-rate differentials, but weak jobs, mining and manufacturing data underscored the subdued domestic growth picture.
Read MoreGlobal markets rebounded as investors grew more hopeful that a deal could ease disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices sharply lower. But the proposed arrangement remains politically fraught, while at home, new polling highlights the growing role MKP could play in shaping coalition governments after the 2026 local elections.
Read MoreThe Middle East conflict widened further this week, even as diplomatic efforts reportedly continued, leaving oil markets volatile. The US Federal Reserve offered little guidance on its policy path, contributing to higher long-term bond yields. In South Africa, major developments at IDAC and the Public Investment Corporation highlighted the tension between institutional weakness and ongoing efforts to rebuild governance.
Read MoreThe SARB held interest rates despite higher inflation, oil climbed above $100/bbl, and political turmoil intensified around the PIC, the Madlanga Commission and Phala Phala. We unpack the week's key economic and political developments.
Read MoreThe Strait blockade has returned just days before the SARB's next interest rate decision, once again pushing oil prices higher and complicating the inflation outlook. In this week's Weekly Review, we assess what the renewed tensions in the Middle East mean for monetary policy and what the latest global data say about the world economy. We also examine the governance crisis at the PIC and review the week's key economic developments.
Read MoreTreasury's decision to withhold funding from Johannesburg highlights the growing macroeconomic consequences of municipal dysfunction, while renewed Middle East tensions remind markets that geopolitical risks remain far from resolved. We also assess the latest manufacturing data, global inflation developments and what to watch in the week ahead.
Read MoreFinancial markets have largely looked past ongoing geopolitical tensions, shifting their focus instead to the rapid recovery in global oil supply and the implications for inflation and interest rates.
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