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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
South African markets rallied in the wake of the 2026 National Budget, as a commodity-driven revenue overrun allowed government to scrap proposed tax increases and reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. The rand strengthened, bond yields fell and equities advanced, reflecting improved investor confidence despite a slightly wider deficit path over the medium term. Globally, uncertainty around US tariff policy unsettled markets after a Supreme Court ruling forced a reset of President Trump’s trade measures. A new universal tariff, legal challenges and rising geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, kept investors on edge, even as global equities ended the week higher
Read MoreThe week was dominated by politics at home and abroad. Domestically, President Cyril Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to announce a Presidency-led overhaul of SA’s criminal justice system. At the same time, residents of Johannesburg continued to grapple with an escalating water crisis, prompting Ramaphosa to take personal charge of a newly established National Water Crisis Committee.
Read MoreThe past few days presented a story of abrupt reversals. After precious metals raced to record highs, last Friday brought a historic rout, with gold tumbling and commodity markets swinging wildly. The turmoil coincided with a major political development in the US, where Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Trump’s nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding another layer of uncertainty to the global policy outlook. Locally, Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen announced that he will not seek a third term, clearing the way for a leadership transition ahead of the 2026 local government elections.
Read MoreCentral banks paused, markets moved sharply, and geopolitics stayed front and centre this week. The SARB and Fed both held rates as policymakers emphasised caution amid persistent uncertainty, while a weaker dollar fuelled large swings in precious metals and supported the rand. Domestically, the focus also turned to the criminal justice system, as a new head at the NPA will inherit a complex agenda amid heightened scrutiny of crime, corruption and institutional reform.
Read MoreGlobal markets faced another bout of volatility as geopolitical tensions flared and policy uncertainty lingered. We unpack the latest developments around US trade threats, global bond market moves, and why the rand continued to outperform. We also examine key domestic political developments, including the resumption of the Madlanga Commission, and preview the week ahead with SARB and Fed policy decisions in focus.
Read MorePolitical pressure, geopolitical risk, and trade uncertainty dominated the week. We examine escalating tensions around the US Federal Reserve, Iran’s unrest, and shifting global trade dynamics, and what these mean for markets and SA. We also preview the key economic data and policy decisions to watch in the coming days.
Read MoreThis week’s Weekly Review examines why financial markets remain relatively composed despite escalating geopolitical tensions, including developments in Venezuela and renewed global trade frictions. We also assess mixed domestic data, early signals from global and local PMIs, and key political developments following the appointment of a new National Director of Public Prosecutions.
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