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September rate cut by Fed back into play; local May data disappoints

BER Weekly | 12 July

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The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to reach 45.7 points in June 2024, compared to 43.8 in May 2024. The improvement is welcomed, but it was the second consecutive month that the PMI remained below the 50-point mark. Following a very strong start to the second quarter, which was also reflected in solid growth in official manufacturing production data, May and June have been poor. Indeed, the business activity index average is barely higher in Q2 than in Q1.

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Business Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index
Purchasing Managers' Index
Building Confidence Index
Civil Confidence Index

Economic Forecast

Read our latest economic forecast.

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During the second quarter of 2024, analysts, business people, and trade union officials all lowered their CPI inflation forecast for the entire three-year horizon. On average, they now anticipate inflation of 5.3% in 2024, 5.0% in 2025, and 4.9% in 2026. Their five-year inflation forecast fell below 5% (to 4.9%) for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021. One-year-ahead inflation expectations of households continued to trend downward in the second quarter of 2024. It reached 6.4%, from a recent peak of 8.1% a year ago.

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The release calendar will be updated each quarter. Please note that these dates may change.

4 September 2024

RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)

25 September 2024

FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index

23 September 2024

Retail Survey

12 September 2024

Inflation Expectations Survey

The first working day of each month

Absa PMI

The first working day of each month


Every Friday

BER Weekly

9 September 2024

FNB/BER Building Confidence Index

17 September 2024

FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

11 September 2024

Absa Manufacturing Survey

19 September 2024

Other Services Survey

The first week of each month


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The BER Economist Internship Programme provides practical training to appropriately qualified previously disadvantaged individuals. The programme equips trainees to function as economists in the private and/or the public sector.

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