The BER, a proud economic research institute of Stellenbosch University

Turning the 3% growth fairy tale into reality

RESEARCH NOTE: The 2024Q3 contraction in GDP underlines the need for a programme of economic reform to restart economic growth. At this stage, the BER’s baseline forecast is for growth to average just below 2% from 2026 to 2029. While this would be faster than the decade prior to the pandemic, this is not enough. In this Comment, the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab evaluates four areas of focus for policy reform that could lift growth over 3%. But the crux is in the implementation, and any further delays will mean that 3% becomes more and more difficult to reach. This feature allows users to view, track and compare various datasets from Stats SA and the SARB. Although this is a beta version, it provides quick and easy access to key economic data and statistics in one, centralised, place.

Economic Prospects, 2025Q1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DOCUMENT We have made slight downward revisions to our 2024 and 2025 real GDP growth forecasts. Although the consumer had a strong end to 2024 and should still do better this year relative to last year, private investment continues to disappoint. Structural reform progress has been too slow to ignite faster growth.

A fiscal anchor for South Africa

RESEARCH NOTE: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that South Africa adopt fiscal rules, and the National Treasury has committed to a process of consultations on fiscal rules, and to release a discussion by the end of March 2025. This research note explores what fiscal rules are and whether they could improve South Africa’s fiscal sustainability and fiscal credibility. It highlights guiding principles and considerations for fiscal rule design and outlines a possible fiscal rule to initially stabilise debt followed by a debt reduction phase.


A sensible SONA as Trump tangoes with tariffs and targets SA

BER Weekly | 7 February

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The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) started the year on the back foot, declining by 0.9 points to 45.3 points in January 2025. This suggests that the loss of momentum observed at the end of 2024 has not reversed at the start of the year. However, it was encouraging that activity and demand improved from low levels – albeit remaining in contractionary terrain.

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Business Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index
Purchasing Managers' Index
Building Confidence Index
Civil Confidence Index

After increasing to an eight-year high of 50 in 2024Q3, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index slipped to 48 in 2024Q4. Sentiment was lower amid renewed weakness in activity growth. However, an improvement in overall profitability partly counteracted this.

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Economic Forecast

We have made slight downward revisions to our 2024 and 2025 real GDP growth forecasts. Although the consumer had a strong end to 2024 and should still do better this year relative to last year, private investment continues to disappoint. Structural reform progress has been too slow to ignite faster growth.

Read our latest economic forecast.

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The release calendar will be updated each quarter. Please note that these dates may change.

Wednesday
5 March 2025

RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)

Monday
10 March 2025

FNB/BER Building Confidence Index

Tuesday
18 March 2025

Absa Manufacturing Survey

Tuesday
25 March 2025

FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

Wednesday
12 March 2025

Other Services Survey

Monday
24 March 2025

Retail Survey

Thursday
27 March 2025

FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index

Monday
17 March 2025

Inflation Expectations Survey

Thursday
3 April 2025

Building Cost Report (BCIS)

The first working day of each month

Absa PMI

The first working day of each month

Update

The first week of each month

Trends

Every Friday

BER Weekly

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The BER Economist Internship Programme provides practical training to appropriately qualified previously disadvantaged individuals. The programme equips trainees to function as economists in the private and/or the public sector.

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