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Since 2013, South Africa has experienced a remarkable growth reversal. Per capita income has fallen almost every year, the country’s growth potential has been reduced, productivity has fallen, and fixed investment growth, having slowed to a crawl, has lately turned negative. This article, written by Dr Roy Havemann and Claire Bisseker, first appeared in the Business Day on 30 September 2025.
Read MoreThe Johannesburg water crisis should serve as a wake-up call to the whole country. South Africa ranks among the top 25 water-stressed countries in the world but is wasting nearly half of its treated water.. This article, written by Claire Bisseker and Robert Botha, first appeared in the Business Day on 26 September 2025
Read MoreIn response to our Q3 business surveys, we received over 300 comments from businesses. In the non-compulsory question, we prompt them to think about negative and positive developments. Unfortunately, the recent feedback is mostly negative and provides a sobering reality check.
Read MoreSouth Africa was first urged by the OECD to introduce a comprehensive strategy to increase competition in 2008 but nearly 20 years later, our product markets remain overregulated and deeply uncompetitive. This article, written by Nomvuyo Guma, first appeared in the Business Day on 29 August 2025.
Read MoreThe inflation target shift has big implications for the economy and lies at the centre of our baseline forecast and two alternative scenarios.
The Sector Education and Training Authorities (Seta) system is an expensive, inefficient model that has failed miserably. It should be scrapped, allowing firms to contract directly with training providers. This article first appeared as the Financial Mail cover story on 14 August 2025 and is written by Claire Bisseker.
Read MoreThe Reserve Bank’s surprise announcement that it is shifting to targeting the bottom of the 3%- 6% target range without explicit National Treasury approval is understandable but not ideal. Arguably, coordination trumps a lower target. This article was written by Dr Roy Havemann and Claire Bisseker and first appeared in The Business Day on 1 August 2025.
Read MoreThere was a moment last year when the business press sounded almost hopeful. South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) had taken shape, and for a glimmering moment, sentiment shifted. There was hope for a better economy, accelerated economic reform, and a more stable and capable state. This article is written by Nadia Matulich and Claire Bisseker, and first appeared in The Business Day on 18 July 2025.
Read MoreAfter four years of talking about lowering the inflation target, the Reserve Bank is becoming increasingly strident, arguing that now is the time to lock in lower inflation at little cost. But not everyone is convinced.
Read MoreThe extent of formal properties in South Africa’s urban areas that lack accurate title deeds represents a silent crisis. But it is also a significant untapped opportunity that could unlock vast economic potential and support wealth-creation in some of the country’s poorest neighbourhoods. This article first appeared in the Business Day on 20 June 2025.
Read MoreSouth Africa’s growth rebound has faltered; we cannot risk losing further momentum.
Universities are battling to make ends meet. NSFAS, caps on enrolments and residence fees, and now proposed curbs on tuition fees, are making matters worse.
South Africa has suffered through three budgets in three months. The debacle nearly broke the Government of National Unity, has undermined the authority of the National Treasury, and unnerved society. Was it all worth it? This article first appeared in the Financial Mail on 29 May 2025
Read MoreAs much as we fixate on the official debt numbers, it is important not to lose sight of the broader, less examined risks that lurk on the public balance sheet.
There is an old saying: the best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second-best time to plant is now. The promise of a second phase of Operation Vulindlela (OV), South Africa’s flagship economic reform programme, was the glue that bound the Government of National Unity (GNU) together. While it has taken the GNU almost a year, the tree was finally planted last week. This article first appeared in the Business Day on 9 May 2025
Read MoreFinance minister Enoch Godongwana has finally been forced to do what he should have done from the start – concede to scrapping the Vat hike and tabling a less expansive budget. He now has a third opportunity to get the 2025 budget right. But will he take it?
Read MoreSouth Africa has postponed making critical health financing reforms for almost 20 years as it has waited for National Health Insurance (NHI) to fill the void. But now the cracks in our existing medical aid system are showing up without a workable alternative in place. This article, written by Dr Anja Smith and Claire Bisseker, first appeared in the Business Day on 25 April 2025
Read MoreSouth Africa is reeling from the twin shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz as well as its home-grown budget bungle, which has fractured the government of national unity.
Successive administrations, including the Government for National Unity (GNU), have stressed the need for infrastructure investment to form a cornerstone of the country’s economic development. Yet the latest data tells us that very little is actually happening on the ground.
Read MoreThe tabling of a politically unsupported budget has forced South Africa into uncharted territory. It faces a critical moment - ripe with huge opportunity but beset with equally large dangers. This article first appeared in the Financial Mail on 20 March 2025
Read MoreIn the face of ongoing global economic and political instability, the rand has surprisingly performed well. But what’s behind this performance, and is it sustainable? We have had several media requests about this, and this note provides a summary of the topics discussed and key points for consideration.
Read MoreThe debate on land reform, equitable distribution of land and expropriation of land in South Africa is often informed by an incomplete picture of land statistics. To correct the many misconceptions, the BER collaborated with the Bureau of Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) and Johann Bornmann to prepare this infographic. The total surface area of South Africa is 122 million ha. We show how this is allocated amongst the different uses: white farmers own 47% of land in South Africa, black farmers own 11% with the government owning another 2% of freehold farmland. In addition other State land (9%) is used for forestry, conservation, defence, correctional services and water purposes. Like in any country, farmland and natural conservation areas cover the biggest land area in South Africa. Only 10% of SA’s land surface area is urbanised, excluding the former homelands. We also include our latest estimates of how farmland has been redistributed and restituted to highlight the progress with the redistribution of farmland. The progress of land reform can only be tracked where we have surveyed land and land with title deeds registered. Even then it is tricky as the title deeds do not record the race of the registered owner. To understand the progress with land reform it is important to start from the correct base. In 1994, total farmland with title deeds (thus outside the former homelands and scheduled areas) covered 77.58 million hectares of the total surface area of South Africa of 122 million hectares. We emphasise that out of the 77.58 million ha freehold farmland, only 18 million hectares can be considered arable (suitable for crop production, irrigation, and horticultural production). The rest is of medium to low potential with 44 million hectares located in the semi-arid to arid Karoo and Kalahari regions.
Read MoreWhile the business cycle clock is still pointing to an upswing, South Africa is moving in the wrong direction. This article first appeared in the Business Day on 14 March 2025.
Who would have thought that Barbara Streisand and the National Treasury would have anything in common, but after the aborted budget last week, the National Treasury briefly tried to ban the 2025 Budget Review. Within minutes, the document was on WhatsApp groups. It has been one of the most read budgets in years. This article first appeared in the Business Day on 28 February 2025.
Read MoreThe postponement of the 2025 Budget has created a rare opportunity for the GNU to design more democratic budget processes and develop lasting fiscal solutions. The National Treasury has suffered the indignity of having its 2025 Budget rejected by the cabinet on the very day of the budget, but it is possible the fallout could lead to a strengthening of the country’s fiscal architecture and more decisive policymaking. It could even accelerate the pace of economic reform.
Read MoreFiscal rules are there to promote discipline, ensure that debt can be paid, and enhance a government’s credibility. But will a fiscal rule help improve South Africa’s fiscal position and, in turn, reduce borrowing costs?
Read MoreResearchers at the BER collaborated with the team at The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) in presenting the facts about the performance of the South African agricultural sector during the first 30 years of democracy. The following document provides a short summary and some key messages from the report.
Read MoreThe recent matric results have put South Africa’s education system in the spotlight. It is widely accepted that an education is one of the most powerful ways to uplift people and transform societies. But not any education will do. Several studies show that it is the quality of education that drives economic development, not pass rates or years of schooling. Countries with better quality education grow faster. This article first appeared in the Business Day on 31 January 2025.
Read MoreSouth Africans take the annual soaring matric pass rate with a pinch of salt, but the true state of education is even more worrying than most imagine. The rising matric pass rate highlights a deep, systemic problem – the fact that neither universities nor the job market can absorb more than a fraction of new matriculants.
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