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A cornerstone of the BER's work over the years has been its regular business surveys
- business executives' rating of current business conditions and their immediate
and short-term expectations. This information (which the BER processes into workable
time series data) has a proven track record as exceptionally reliable and as leading
economic indicators. The BER's business and consumer confidence indices are two
of the best-known indicators. The surveys also have a sectoral and regional focus.
More detailed background information on business surveys are provided below.
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The business survey questionnaire contains a small number of questions. These questions
are qualitative in nature, e.g.
"Compared to the same quarter a year ago, are the volume of sales
up,
the same or
down?"
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The survey results are published in quarterly reports, namely Retail Survey, Manufacturing
Survey and Building & Construction. In the reports the results are interpreted
and presented in the form of tables and graphs.
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Who? The best person to complete the questionnaire is someone well informed
about the firm's overall performance, such as the chief executive, financial
director, marketing director, senior sales manager, proprietor or shopkeeper. Participation
is totally voluntary.
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When? Participants receive the questionnaire at the beginning of March, June,
September and December and have to return it by no later than the third
week of the month. The date of return is always specified on the questionnaire.
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How? Participants only have to tick off if a particular activity (e.g.
sales, orders, stocks and employment) is up, the same or down. Any manager who is
aware of the firm's current business condition will therefore be able to complete
the questionnaire within a few minutes, as no figures are requested.
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The summary of survey results provides the most up to date information on
how fellow executives experienced the quarter that just ended and their expectations
for the next quarter regarding sales volumes, orders placed, stocks, purchase prices,
the general business climate etc.
Example: If the percentage of respondents rating sales volumes higher / the same
/ lower than the same quarter a year ago is as follows;
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Higher
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Same
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Lower
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70
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10
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20
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We can conclude that the majority of participants experienced higher sales. A net
majority (i.e. the percentage of respondents rating sales higher less the percentage
rating sales lower) of 50% is registered in the above example. A net majority of
-10% for example would have indicated a decline in sales volumes.
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The individual respondent could therefore ask him or herself: Did my firm participate
in these higher sales? If not, why? The results provide benchmarks. They enable participants
to compare their firm's performance with that of the rest of the sector
without having to directly ask competitors for such information.
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Short-term planning is hampered as official statistics are released with a lag in
time. The business survey results reveal what happened between the release of the
last official figure and the current state of affairs. In addition, the
results indicate what respondents expect (or forecast) for the next quarter. This
is unique information.
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Furthermore the survey results of successive quarters provide a means of tracking
cyclical movements, pinpointing trend changes and establishing forecasts.
Knowledge about the current state of the business cycle is crucial for planning.
For example, during a cyclical downturn it is difficult to match the previous year's
sales growth, assuming all other things remain the same. It is also crucial to detect
a cyclical upturn in advance to place orders to benefit from the expected increase
in sales.
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The survey results not only reveal, in advance, the direction of sales, selling
prices, employment etc. (for which official figures are published), but also provide
unique information, such as retailer confidence, rating of business conditions or
sales expectations, for which no official figures exist. It is now widely
recognized that these subjective individual expectations play a key role in economic
developments.
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