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Detailed quarterly forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 18-24 months
Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects.
Monthly survey of leading South African economists who forecast key macroeconomic variables.
We have upwardly revised our 2025 real GDP growth forecast relative to our July update. Our view on the medium-term growth trajectory, however, remains largely unchanged. Economic Outlook describes the narrative driving our medium-term forecast, as well as the risks and sources of uncertainty, and includes the full set of forecast data.
Read MoreThe South African economy underperformed in 2024, with economic growth slowing relative to the load-shedding-ridden year of 2023. While prospects for 2025 were significantly more upbeat, the outlook has deteriorated. Domestic structural reform progress remains too slow to accelerate growth, some positive momentum that was driven by the consumer is stalling, and the global environment has become notably more uncertain. As such, we have made a downward revision to our GDP growth profile.
Read MoreEconomic Outlook provides a summary of our medium-term forecast (up to 2029) and includes a discussion of the risks to the baseline forecast. In many ways, 2024 is turning out much better than expected. Most notably, the extended absence of load-shedding and positive noises from the newly established Government of National Unity (GNU) about much-needed structural reform are welcome developments. However, despite shifts in some of the underlying components, our headline real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is unchanged at ‘just’ 1%.
Read MoreWe have downwardly revised our medium-term GDP growth outlook has also been revised lower, with growth expected to average just below 2% from 2026-2029. The reason for the downward revision to GDP growth is generally our expectation of lower domestic demand relative to our earlier forecast.
Read MoreRelief on the inflation and interest rate fronts should start to kick in from the second half of next year. Along with an assumption of reduced load-shedding, a continuation of the green-energy investment boom, and with the caveat that the 2024 election does not lead to unstable multiparty coalitions in some key provinces, this should lay the groundwork for a push towards 2% real GDP growth from 2025 onwards.
Read MoreWe continue to peg medium-term (2025-28) SA real GDP growth at around 2% on average. Crucially, this view relies on the realisation of a green-energy fixed investment boom and, over time, the associated easing of the debilitating power constraint.
Read MoreDriven by an expectation for much faster green-energy driven private sector fixed investment, SA real GDP growth of 2% is projected over the medium term (2025-27). This would be a substantial improvement on the pre-COVID (2015-2019) period.
Read MoreOver the medium term (2024-27), SA real GDP growth is expected to average 2%. To a large extent, this view is contingent on unlocking the blockages holding back a green-energy-induced private investment spurt.
Read MoreAssuming that some progress is made on private sector green energy investments, the latest forecast is for average medium-term (2023-26) real GDP growth of just below 2%.
Beyond the initial 2021, and to a lesser extent the projected 2022 bounceback in GDP, average real GDP growth of 2% is forecast between 2023-26. If achieved, this would be more than double the paltry real GDP growth rate of only 0.8% during the five years read more
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