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The Absa Manufacturing Survey is a brisk quarterly report on the results and implications of the latest BER survey of manufacturing firms.
A brisk quarterly report on the results, as well as implications, of the latest BER survey in the trade sectors.
The BER Other Services Survey provides the latest trends and outlook for hotels, restaurants, transport, real estate and business services.
A brisk quarterly report on the results and implications of the latest BER survey in the building and construction industry.
The global energy shock, due to the war between the US and Iran, had a negative impact on the inflation expectations of all four social groups. For the professional groups, current-year expectations surged from 3.6% to 4.4%. Similarly, their five-year expectations increased from 3.6% to 4.1%. Household inflation expectations increased further following a marginal uptick in the first quarter; one-year expectations were measured at 6.0% (5.4% previously), while five-year expectations rose from 8.4% to 9.1%.
Read MoreThe global energy shock, due to the war between the US and Iran, had a negative impact on the inflation expectations of all four social groups. For the professional groups, current-year expectations surged from 3.6% to 4.4%. Similarly, their five-year expectations increased from 3.6% to 4.1%. Household inflation expectations increased further following a marginal uptick in the first quarter; one-year expectations were measured at 6.0% (5.4% previously), while five-year expectations rose from 8.4% to 9.1%.
Read MoreIn the first quarter of 2026 (the second survey after the inflation target changed to 3%), the average five-year inflation expectations of the three professional groups declined slightly to a record low of 3.6% (from 3.7% previously). Next-year expectations also declined marginally (0.1% pts) to 3.6%. In contrast, household inflation expectations reversed its downward trend; one-year expectations were measured at 5.4% (5.3% previously), while five-year expectations rose from 7.7% to 8.4%.
Read MoreIn the first quarter of 2026 (the second survey after the inflation target changed to 3%), the average five-year inflation expectations of the three professional groups declined slightly to a record low of 3.6% (from 3.7% previously). Next-year expectations also declined marginally (0.1% pts) to 3.6%. In contrast, household inflation expectations reversed its downward trend; one-year expectations were measured at 5.4% (5.3% previously), while five-year expectations rose from 7.7% to 8.4%.
Read MoreIn the fourth quarter of 2025 (the first survey after the inflation target changed to 3%), the two- and five-year inflation expectations of the three professional groups, on average, fell to a record low of 3.7% (from 4.2% before). Next-year expectations were also down by a significant margin (0.4% pts) to 3.8%. Household inflation expectations resumed its downward trend, after a brief pause in the third quarter; one-year expectations were observed at 5.3% (5.5% previously).
Read MoreIn the fourth quarter of 2025 (the first survey after the inflation target changed to 3%), the two- and five-year inflation expectations of the three professional groups, on average, fell to a record low of 3.7% (from 4.2% before). Next-year expectations were also down by a significant margin (0.4% pts) to 3.8%. Household inflation expectations resumed its downward trend, after a brief pause in the third quarter; one-year expectations were observed at 5.3% (5.5% previously).
Read MoreIn the third quarter of 2025, on average, the three social groups lowered their longer-term inflation expectations. They now expect headline inflation in the next five years to average 4.2% (compared to 4.4% before). This is the lowest forecast since the addition of this question to the survey (in 2011). Near-term expectations were down by 0.1% pt for both 2025 and 2026, to 3.8% and 4.2%. The one and five-year-ahead expectation is thus equal, at 4.2%.
Read MoreIn the third quarter of 2025, on average, the three social groups lowered their longer-term inflation expectations. They now expect headline inflation in the next five years to average 4.2% (compared to 4.4% before). This is the lowest forecast since the addition of this question to the survey (in 2011). Near-term expectations were down by 0.1% pt for both 2025 and 2026, to 3.8% and 4.2%. The one and five-year-ahead expectation is thus equal, at 4.2%.
Read MoreThe second quarter survey reflects a broad-based and significant decline in the inflation expectations of the survey respondents. Inflation expectations of all three social groups, (business people, trade union representatives and analysts) declined, with the downward adjustment extending across the forecast horizon. On average, the respondents expect that headline consumer inflation will be 3.9% during 2025, then rise gradually to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
Read MoreThe second quarter survey reflects a broad-based and significant decline in the inflation expectations of the survey respondents. Inflation expectations of all three social groups, (business people, trade union representatives and analysts) declined, with the downward adjustment extending across the forecast horizon. On average, the respondents expect that headline consumer inflation will be 3.9% during 2025, then rise gradually to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.
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