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The BER has modelled three options for the South African economy (2026-2030) - the Hadeda, the Marabou and the African Fish Eagle scenarios - to illustrate the choices that could allow the country to enjoy the high road to economic success and how to avoid idling in low gear or taking the low road to economic ruin.
Read MoreAfter recovering from -13 to -9 index points in the fourth quarter of 2025, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) extended its gains to reach -7 in the first quarter of 2026. Buoyant high-income sentiment underpinned this improvement, though geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict loom.
Read MoreOther Services confidence declined by 14 points to 55 in the first quarter of 2026. Though this is a statistically significant decline, at 55, confidence remains comfortably above both the 2025 average and the long-run average. The results suggest that the decline in confidence largely reflects a normalisation from the exceptionally strong fourth quarter rather than a broad deterioration in the sector.
Read MoreIn the first quarter of 2026 (the second survey after the inflation target changed to 3%), the average five-year inflation expectations of the three professional groups declined slightly to a record low of 3.6% (from 3.7% previously). Next-year expectations also declined marginally (0.1% pts) to 3.6%. In contrast, household inflation expectations reversed its downward trend; one-year expectations were measured at 5.4% (5.3% previously), while five-year expectations rose from 7.7% to 8.4%.
Read MoreAccording to the latest BER Retail Survey, business confidence among retailers declined from 43% to 36% in the first quarter of 2026. After a year of solid optimism, supported by strong retail sales and consumer spending, retailer confidence lost momentum in 2026Q1. However, the survey details suggest the retail sector may simply be taking a breather rather than heading for a downturn.
Read MoreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index remained relatively stable in 2026Q1, losing one point to register a level of 42. Sentiment edged lower despite a broad improvement in activity and overall profitability. The important exceptions, however, were residential builders and building material manufacturers.
Read MoreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) rose by a further 3 points to 47 in the first quarter of 2026, building on the improvement in the fourth quarter of 2025. The BCI now stands six points above its long-term average and a solid 20 points above the post-COVID low reached in 2023Q2.
Read MoreSentiment among civil contractors, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose to a joint 11-year high in 2025Q4. The improvement in the business mood was supported by significantly better readings for activity growth and overall profitability.
Read MoreConfidence in the Other Services1 sector jumped by 23 points to 69 in 2025Q4, making it only the second time this metric is above 65 since 2008Q3, and marking a post-GFC2 record. This rise is driven by significant gains in business volumes, conditions, and profitability, all of which are now well above long-term averages. Concurrently, average selling price inflation fell in line with lower inflation in South Africa.
Read MoreIn the fourth quarter of 2025 (the first survey after the inflation target changed to 3%), the two- and five-year inflation expectations of the three professional groups, on average, fell to a record low of 3.7% (from 4.2% before). Next-year expectations were also down by a significant margin (0.4% pts) to 3.8%. Household inflation expectations resumed its downward trend, after a brief pause in the third quarter; one-year expectations were observed at 5.3% (5.5% previously).
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