FNB Civil Confidence Index

FNB Civil Confidence Index Documents

Sentiment among civil contractors, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose to a joint 11-year high in 2025Q4. The improvement in the business mood was supported by significantly better readings for activity growth and overall profitability.

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The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index reached an almost eight-year high of 47 in 2024Q1. In 2024Q2, sentiment edged lower to 44. The slight deterioration in the business mood mimics the slowdown in activity. Nonetheless, the activity growth indicator is still well above its long-term average.

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After gaining two points in 2023Q3, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index reverted back to the level of 41 in 2023Q4. The current reading means that almost 60% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. The sub-indices, however, especially growth in activity and overall profitability, were more upbeat than in 2023Q3.

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After rising to 17 in 2021Q3, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index slipped to 15 in 2021Q4. The current index level means that the vast majority (eighty-five per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Importantly, sentiment declined this quarter even though key indicators such as activity and profitability improved.

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In 2020Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index fell to only five. Sentiment improved to 11 in 2020Q3 and by a further five points to 16 in 2020Q4. Although better, the current index level means that the vast majority (more than eighty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.

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After improving in 2019Q3, construction activity gained further ground in 2019Q4. The higher activity lifted the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index to 22, from 15 in 2019Q3. This marks the first time since 2017Q2 that confidence has been above 20.

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The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained one point to register a still very depressed level of 18 in 2018Q4. Underpinning the low confidence was a significant decline in construction activity as well as a deterioration in order books.

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The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 4 points to register a level of 19 in 2017Q4. This lifts the index from the 17-year low recorded in 2017Q3. Despite the slight uptick in confidence, growth in construction activity slowed further in the quarter.

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Following a cumulative 24 index point rise during 2016Q2 and 2016Q3, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed 17 points to register a level of 35 in 2016Q4. A number of factors contributed to the drop in confidence, including lower activity growth, keener competition and, consequently, also weaker profitability.

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An improvement in overall profitability saw the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edge higher to 42 points in 2015Q4, from 39 in 2015Q3. Nonetheless, the current level of confidence still suggests that close to 60% of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions amid restrained growth in construction activity.

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