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Detailed bi-annual forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 5-6 years.
Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects.
Monthly survey of leading South African economists who forecast key macroeconomic variables.
South Africa’s outlook is best characterised as one of cautious stabilisation rather than acceleration. Macroeconomic credibility has strengthened and downside risks have receded, but structural constraints continue to limit growth. Unlocking a meaningfully higher trajectory will require sustained investment, improved infrastructure performance and disciplined policy execution.
Read MoreSA’s near-term economic outlook has improved modestly, supported by lower inflation, a stronger currency, and some unexpected momentum in activity. However, structural impediments continue to hinder the pace and durability of the recovery.
Read MoreThe near-term outlook for SA has improved modestly. Nonetheless, persistent structural constraints and slow reform progress, fiscal vulnerabilities, and uncertainty around global trade policy continue to limit the upside to medium-term growth.
Read MoreWe have revised our GDP growth forecast downward relative to our April projections, reflecting deepening global and local uncertainty as well as weaker-than-expected domestic data.
The South African economy underperformed in 2024, with economic growth slowing relative to the load-shedding-ridden year of 2023. While prospects for 2025 were significantly more upbeat, the outlook has deteriorated. We have made a downward revision to our GDP growth forecast.
Read MoreDespite the absence of load-shedding through most of 2024, the economy is unlikely to have grown faster than 1% last year. The outlook for 2025 is more positive, with some cyclical support set to push real growth to about 2%. Still, we have made a slight downward revision to our growth forecast for 2025. While local growth dynamics are important, this is, to some extent, overshadowed by the uncertainty coming from the global political landscape.
Read MoreWe have made slight downward revisions to our 2024 and 2025 real GDP growth forecasts. Although the consumer had a strong end to 2024 and should still do better this year relative to last year, private investment continues to disappoint. Structural reform progress has been too slow to ignite faster growth.
Read MoreIn many ways, 2024 is turning out much better than expected. Most notably, the extended absence of load-shedding and positive noises from the newly established Government of National Unity (GNU) about much-needed structural reform are welcome developments. However, despite shifts in some of the underlying components, our headline real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is unchanged at ‘just’ 1%
Read MoreIn many ways, 2024 is turning out much better than expected. Most notably, the extended absence of load-shedding and positive noises from the newly established Government of National Unity (GNU) about much-needed structural reform are welcome developments. However, despite shifts in some of the underlying components, our headline real GDP growth forecast for 2024 is unchanged at ‘just’ 1%.
Read MoreThere have been some significant developments since our last forecast update. Politically, the peaceful national elections have resulted in a government of national unity (GNU). On the domestic economic front, the potential positive effects of a sustained period of no load-shedding have been offset by a much weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP outcome. Indeed, following the disappointing Q1, we have downwardly adjusted our forecast for 2024. However, we have made an upward revision to 2025.
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