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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
The SARB kept the repo rate unchanged at 7%, opting for a hawkish hold despite June's upside inflation surprise. In this note, we unpack why the MPC looked through the near-term inflation shock, the key changes to its forecasts and scenarios, and what the decision means for the outlook for interest rates, inflation and economic growth.
Read MoreWhat changed in the BER's thinking since April? In this Brief from the Chief, we take clients inside the BER's quarterly forecasting meeting and explore how two days of debate are shaping our latest economic outlook.
Read MoreThe political window to reform the South African Police Service (SAPS) is narrow, but President Cyril Ramaphosa has been handed a rare opportunity to do so. The Madlanga Commission's revelations have exposed the depth of criminal infiltration and institutional decay within the police, creating both an urgent need and a unique opening for reform.
Read MoreThe South African economy extended its growth streak to six consecutive quarters in Q1, with GDP expanding by a better-than-expected 0.5% q-o-q. Beneath the encouraging headline, however, underlying momentum remained subdued. Domestic demand contracted, investment spending weakened and inventory accumulation deteriorated, leaving net exports and the services sector to do most of the heavy lifting.
Read MoreFrom the recent rate hike to the latest election polls, the 2026 BER conference offered a stimulating morning of discussion in Sandton earlier this week. This is a summary of the main conference highlights.
Read MoreThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to increase the policy interest rate by 25 bps. This takes the policy interest rate to 7% and the prime to 10.5%. This increase comes just three meetings after the SARB’s most recent rate cut (in November 2025, the SARB cut by 25bps to 6.75%).
Read MoreThe Constitutional Court has ruled Parliament’s decision to block an impeachment inquiry into the Phala Phala report unconstitutional, reviving scrutiny over President Cyril Ramaphosa’s handling of the scandal. The judgement strengthens constitutional accountability but places Ramaphosa and the ANC under renewed political pressure.
Read MoreGrowth is back on the agenda for the Democratic Alliance (DA), as it transitioned to a new, youthful leadership core at its elective congress over the weekend, with the party’s new federal leader, Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, unequivocal about ensuring that the DA becomes the largest party in SA.
Read MoreRising energy prices are causing growth to slow and inflation to rise globally. Whether this evolves into a full-blown global recession will depend largely on the duration of the shock. To help clients unpack the risks, the BER commissioned the following analysis from two international academic experts. Their sobering conclusion is that the Iran war will likely be protracted and could even broaden into a global conflict.
Read MoreThe SARB held rates steady, but the policy narrative has shifted. A higher oil price outlook has lifted near-term inflation and pushed out expected rate cuts, with the MPC adopting a more cautious stance. With risks now skewed away from easing, further hikes cannot be ruled out if the shock persists.
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