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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
In-depth analysis of important political developments in South Africa.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
South Africa's economy is now measured to be 5.3% larger following Stats SA's latest GDP rebasing exercise. While the upward revision to nominal GDP improves key fiscal ratios, including government debt relative to GDP, revised estimates also point to weaker real economic growth in recent years. We unpack the changes to the size, growth and composition of the economy, and what they mean for South Africa's economic outlook.
Read MoreThis is a summary of the BER’s post-medium-term budget webinar with the National Treasury’s Duncan Pieterse. He was questioned by Lisette IJssel de Schepper, Claire Bisseker and Shannon Bold
South Africa’s fiscal turnaround remains on track, with government debt stabilising and stronger-than-expected revenue collections providing some breathing room. The 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement delivers welcome additional fuel levy relief and introduces a bond buyback programme, but the proposed fiscal anchor may disappoint those hoping for stronger fiscal guardrails. With the medium-term debt outlook less favourable than in February and economic growth remaining subdued, the challenge is to translate fiscal stability into stronger investment and sustainable growth.
Read MoreThe SARB lifted the policy rate by 25 bps to 7.25% as renewed energy-price pressures and concerns about second-round inflation effects outweighed softer current inflation and weaker growth. The decision appears more about insuring against future persistence than responding to a clear deterioration in underlying inflation.
Read MoreSouth Africa’s economy contracted in Q2, but the underlying picture was more nuanced. Domestic demand remained relatively resilient, while weakness was concentrated in trade, manufacturing and mining. Even so, the softer first-half growth profile raises the hurdle for the remainder of 2026.
Read MoreThe ANC’s delayed decision on its Johannesburg mayoral candidate exposes a deeper problem for the party: voter loyalty can no longer be taken for granted, while internal structures remain deeply invested in factional contests over who leads. With Joburg set to be the key battleground of the 2026 local elections, the eventual choice could shape not only the ANC’s campaign, but also its post-election coalition options.
Read MoreSouth Africa has absorbed the global energy shock better than initially feared, but resilience should not be mistaken for acceleration. More stable electricity supply, improved fiscal credibility, reform progress and a firmer rand provide stronger shock absorbers. Even so, growth remains too weak to generate a sustained improvement in employment or living standards, with private investment still the central constraint.
Read MoreThe Public Investment Corporation's governance crisis enters a new phase as suspended CEO Patrick Dlamini challenges his suspension in court and government prepares to appoint an interim board. While the immediate focus is on restoring stability, the episode has reignited questions about whether the PIC's governance framework requires more fundamental reform.
Read MoreThe SARB kept the repo rate unchanged at 7%, opting for a hawkish hold despite June's upside inflation surprise. In this note, we unpack why the MPC looked through the near-term inflation shock, the key changes to its forecasts and scenarios, and what the decision means for the outlook for interest rates, inflation and economic growth.
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