General
Publications & Data
Join the conversation
Social Links
Social Links
Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
Rising energy prices are causing growth to slow and inflation to rise globally. Whether this evolves into a full-blown global recession will depend largely on the duration of the shock. To help clients unpack the risks, the BER commissioned the following analysis from two international academic experts. Their sobering conclusion is that the Iran war will likely be protracted and could even broaden into a global conflict.
Read MoreThe SARB held rates steady, but the policy narrative has shifted. A higher oil price outlook has lifted near-term inflation and pushed out expected rate cuts, with the MPC adopting a more cautious stance. With risks now skewed away from easing, further hikes cannot be ruled out if the shock persists.
Read MoreCyril Ramaphosa’s second term as ANC president ends in December 2027. Historically, the election of the ANC president was the single most important political event watched at home and abroad to determine the country’s prospects. This comment explains the state of play in ANC succession politics and why the race for the party presidency could mark a significant shift from established practice within the party, driven by electoral concerns.
Read MoreThis presentation-style comment summarises updates to the BER’s baseline forecast and presents three alternative scenarios with varying assumptions regarding the duration and extent of the oil price shock. Prof. Esterhuyse’s slides, “Middle East Escalation & the New Global Order,” as presented during the BER client webinar on 13 March 2026, are attached at the end of the BER presentation.
Read MoreThe South African (SA) economy ended 2025 on a slightly stronger note than expected. Real GDP expanded by 0.4% q-o-q in the fourth quarter, a touch above both our forecast and the consensus expectation of 0.3%. This was the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, indicating that the gradual recovery remained intact towards year-end. However, the full-year outcome was somewhat softer than anticipated.
Read MoreThe escalation of conflict following US and Israeli strikes on Iran presents South Africa with a familiar but delicate balancing act - and markets are watching closely. While the situation remains in flux, this comment briefly unpacks the transmission channels through which the conflict could affect SA over time
Read MoreThe 2026 Budget reflects hard-won fiscal gains, with improved revenue performance, entrenched primary surpluses and a projected peak in the debt ratio. Taxpayers emerge as clear beneficiaries, but the medium-term deficit path remains sensitive to growth and market conditions. While the outlook has improved, sustained reform implementation will determine whether fiscal stability endures.
Read MoreThe City of Johannesburg is ground zero ahead of the upcoming local government election. The battle for political dominance in the country’s economic heartland will be brutal and could again culminate in messy coalitions
Read MoreDemocratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen formally announced his withdrawal from the party’s succession race during a media briefing in KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday. The move has been long in the making, with talks around Steenhuisen’s potential exit beginning toward the end of 2025. The key question is whether a refresh in the upper echelons of the DA leadership can, first, reignite support from its base and, second, attract new voters to the party.
Read MoreThe majority of the Monetary Policy Committee members of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) voted to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. While two members voted for a 25bps cut, four members voted for a hold. This means that the repo rate is unchanged at 6.75% (prime at 10.25%).
Read More
