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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
The South African economy extended its growth streak to six consecutive quarters in Q1, with GDP expanding by a better-than-expected 0.5% q-o-q. Beneath the encouraging headline, however, underlying momentum remained subdued. Domestic demand contracted, investment spending weakened and inventory accumulation deteriorated, leaving net exports and the services sector to do most of the heavy lifting.
Read MoreFrom the recent rate hike to the latest election polls, the 2026 BER conference offered a stimulating morning of discussion in Sandton earlier this week. This is a summary of the main conference highlights.
Read MoreThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to increase the policy interest rate by 25 bps. This takes the policy interest rate to 7% and the prime to 10.5%. This increase comes just three meetings after the SARB’s most recent rate cut (in November 2025, the SARB cut by 25bps to 6.75%).
Read MoreThe Constitutional Court has ruled Parliament’s decision to block an impeachment inquiry into the Phala Phala report unconstitutional, reviving scrutiny over President Cyril Ramaphosa’s handling of the scandal. The judgement strengthens constitutional accountability but places Ramaphosa and the ANC under renewed political pressure.
Read MoreGrowth is back on the agenda for the Democratic Alliance (DA), as it transitioned to a new, youthful leadership core at its elective congress over the weekend, with the party’s new federal leader, Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, unequivocal about ensuring that the DA becomes the largest party in SA.
Read MoreRising energy prices are causing growth to slow and inflation to rise globally. Whether this evolves into a full-blown global recession will depend largely on the duration of the shock. To help clients unpack the risks, the BER commissioned the following analysis from two international academic experts. Their sobering conclusion is that the Iran war will likely be protracted and could even broaden into a global conflict.
Read MoreThe SARB held rates steady, but the policy narrative has shifted. A higher oil price outlook has lifted near-term inflation and pushed out expected rate cuts, with the MPC adopting a more cautious stance. With risks now skewed away from easing, further hikes cannot be ruled out if the shock persists.
Read MoreCyril Ramaphosa’s second term as ANC president ends in December 2027. Historically, the election of the ANC president was the single most important political event watched at home and abroad to determine the country’s prospects. This comment explains the state of play in ANC succession politics and why the race for the party presidency could mark a significant shift from established practice within the party, driven by electoral concerns.
Read MoreThis presentation-style comment summarises updates to the BER’s baseline forecast and presents three alternative scenarios with varying assumptions regarding the duration and extent of the oil price shock. Prof. Esterhuyse’s slides, “Middle East Escalation & the New Global Order,” as presented during the BER client webinar on 13 March 2026, are attached at the end of the BER presentation.
Read MoreThe South African (SA) economy ended 2025 on a slightly stronger note than expected. Real GDP expanded by 0.4% q-o-q in the fourth quarter, a touch above both our forecast and the consensus expectation of 0.3%. This was the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, indicating that the gradual recovery remained intact towards year-end. However, the full-year outcome was somewhat softer than anticipated.
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