Macroeconomic forecast

Macroeconomic forecast

Macroeconomic forecasting is one of the BER's core competencies. The BER's regular economic forecasts are the result of three integrated main activities, i.e.

• The BER employs a suite of models approach in its analysis and forecasting of the South African macro economy. Its core macroeconometric model is a medium sized semi-structural demand-orientated model with specific supply side elements. The BER's models are actively maintained to account for structural economic changes and the latest econometric forecasting techniques. Furthermore, the experience, expertise and judgment of the BER economists play a determining role when producing final forecasts, particularly in these days of intense structural economic and political volatility.
• The BER's quarterly business surveys in the trade, manufacturing and building sectors provide unique and up-to-date business cycle information. These surveys shed light on which trends are likely to emerge in the near-term future.
• The BER's economic research activities include the study of selected local and foreign literature, as well as in-depth interviews with key figures in the private and public sectors of the economy. The BER also gains invaluable insight into the state of the economy from its close contact with its clients.

A detailed update of the short-term (18-24 month) forecast is done during January, April, June and October each year and published in Economic Prospects. Minor revisions to the short-term forecast are done throughout the year. A 6-year quarterly forecast, including a risk scenario analysis, is updated in April and October and published in Economic Outlook.