At 2.4%, our revised forecast is that real GDP growth in 2012 may be slightly better than the 2.2% forecast three months ago. For 2013, the growth forecast has remained unchanged at 2.6%. However, the composition of growth is expected to be somewhat different than previously thought. Most notably, the downward revision to consumer spending for 2013 (from 3.4 to 3%) was counteracted by a significant upward revision to fixed investment (from 3.6 to 5.3%). For 2014, we have downscaled the GDP growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.8%. This mainly reflects the combination of softer consumer spending growth and a less robust increase for inventories.

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