Business and Consumer Surveys

• They are simple and rapid surveys, designed to meet the needs of short-term analysis of business conditions in the trade, manufacturing, construction and other services sectors.
• The business survey questionnaire contains a small number of questions. These questions are qualitative in nature, e.g. "compared to the same quarter a year ago, are the volume of sales up, the same or down?"
• The sample remains the same from one survey to the next, which means that a panel is in effect established. This sample is divided according to the main product types of merchandise. Each firm gets a weighting in relation to turnover to provide for widely differing sizes.
• The business survey results are published in quarterly reports, namely Retail Survey, Manufacturing Survey, Building and Construction and Other Services Survey (only available to subscribers to the BER's macro services).

What is the international standing of business surveys

• IFO in Germany, INSEE in France and ISAE in Italy developed the business tendency survey method in the late 1940s. South Africa was one of the first seven countries to start using this method when the BER conducted its first survey in March 1954.
• Currently this method is applied in many countries across the world. Some of the best known surveys are those of the European Union and the Tankan in Japan. These surveys have a high international standing and financial markets closely monitor these results.
• Research and progress made on the business survey technique are presented every two years at an international conference organised by CIRET (Center for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys). The European Commission and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also hosts a biennial workshop on developments in business and consumer surveys.

• The BER has been conducting business surveys among manufacturers and retailers since 1954. Click here for a set of survey results from 1955. Building contractors and sub-contractors were added in 1969. In 1975, the coverage of the surveys was broadened to differentiate between subsectors in the manufacturing, domestic trade (retail, wholesale and motor trade) and building sectors. Architects and quantity surveyors were added in 1986, civil engineers in 1997, manufacturing purchasing managers in 1999, banks in 2002 and asset managers and life insurers in 2003 (note: the financial survey was suspended in 2017). Quantity surveyors complete an additional questionnaire, which is used to calculate a building cost index. Since 2005 the BER also covers selected other services sectors, namely hotels, restaurants, transport, real estate and business services. The results were made public for the first time in 2020.
• The consumer survey was launched amongst white consumers in 1975. Black consumers were included in 1982. In 1994, the coverage of the consumer survey was expanded to all population groups.

• Questionnaires are sent out quarterly to the panel of respondents. The survey panel is maintained by regular recruitment.
• A hybrid system is used, whereby respondents can indicate their preferred method of communication. These include receiving the questionnaire per regular mail (and returning the completed questionnaire per post, fax or email) or receiving an email with a link to the online survey (which is compatible with mobile devices). In some cases, the regular questionnaire is sent (and returned) per email.

Completion of the questionnaire - who, when and how?

• Who? The best person to complete the questionnaire is someone well informed about the firm's overall performance, such as the chief executive, financial director, marketing director, senior sales manager, proprietor or shopkeeper.
• When? Participants receive the questionnaire around the middle of February, May, August and October and have to return it by no later than the first week of the next month. The date of return is always specified on the questionnaire.
• How? Participants only have to tick off if a particular activity (e.g. sales, orders, stocks and employment) is up, the same or down. Any manager who is aware of the firm's current business condition will therefore be able to complete the questionnaire within a few minutes, as no figures are requested. In addition, participants have to complete a "participant details" form every few years to ensure that they are correctly classified.

Participation is totally voluntary and all information is treated as confidential. All respondents receive an exclusive, free copy of the summary of the survey results as a token of our appreciation for taking part in the survey. This has proved to be an indispensable planning tool.

• The summary of survey results provides the most up-to-date information on how fellow executives experience the current quarter and their expectations for the next quarter regarding sales volumes, orders placed, stocks, purchase prices, the general business climate etc.
• The results provide benchmarks and they enable participants to compare their firm's performance with that of the rest of the sector without having to directly ask competitors for such information.
• Short-term planning is hampered as official statistics are released with a lag in time. The business survey results reveal what happened between the release of the last official figure and the current state of affairs. In addition, the results indicate what respondents expect (or forecast) for the next quarter. This is unique information.
• Furthermore, the survey results of successive quarters provide a means of tracking cyclical movements, pinpointing trend changes and establishing forecasts. Knowledge about the current state of the business cycle is crucial for planning. For example, during a cyclical downturn it is difficult to match the previous year's sales growth, assuming all other things remain the same. It is also crucial to detect a cyclical upturn in advance to place orders to benefit from the expected increase in sales.
• The survey results not only reveal, in advance, the direction of sales, selling prices, employment etc. (for which official figures are published), but also provide unique information, such as business confidence, rating of business conditions or sales expectations, for which no official figures exist. It is now widely recognised that these subjective individual expectations play a key role in economic developments.

• Consumer surveys originated at the Survey Research Centre at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor in the USA in 1946. Today these surveys are also carried out by other institutes in the USA (e.g. the Conference Board in New York), Europe and Japan. The BER started its consumer survey based on the University of Michigan method in 1975. The survey is conducted by personal interviews of a representative sample of 2500 adults.
• Respondents are asked about the economic performance of the country in 12 months’ time, the household financial position in 12 months’ time, and their rating of the present time to buy durable goods.
• Consumer surveys provide regular assessments of consumer attitudes and expectations and are used to evaluate economic trends and prospects. The surveys are designed to explore why changes in consumer expectations occur and how these changes influence consumer spending and saving decisions.