BER press release
Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q2
Last updated: Jul 23 2020 3:05PM
Average inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged
read moreAverage inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.8% relative to the first quarter survey.
All social groups lowered their expectations for 2020. Analysts revised their forecasts for 2020 downwards by a larger margin than business people and trade union representatives. While analysts and trade unionists expect inflation in 2021 and 2022 to be at or below the midpoint of the 3% to 6% target range, business people expect inflation to be above 5%.
Other services survey results 2020Q2, press release
Last updated: Jul 21 2020 8:07AM
The second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of
read moreThe second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of the BER’s other services survey showed that business confidence in the sector plummeted from an already-low level of 17 in the first quarter to a meagre 7 in the second quarter. This is a record low in the 15-year history of the survey. The survey revealed that activity in restaurants, hotels and real estate came to a complete standstill, while transport and business services registered historically unprecedented falls in the second quarter. Along with the record low Q2 reading for the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index and the close to all-time low for the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index , the results of the other services survey provide further evidence that South Africa suffered a historic GDP decline in the second quarter.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release
Last updated: Jul 7 2020 9:42AM
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods
read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods dropped to a historic low of -64. Of all the income groups, the low-income group posted the largest decline in confidence.
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release
Last updated: Jun 25 2020 8:48AM
After rising from 10 to 24 between 2019Q1 and 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 5 in 2020Q2. Underlying the fall in confidence was a steep drop in activity.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release
Last updated: Jun 18 2020 7:53AM
From an already depressed 13 in 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 4 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the fall in sentiment was a sharp drop in building activity, as
expected given the hard lockdown in April and partial shutdown
read moreFrom an already depressed 13 in 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 4 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the fall in sentiment was a sharp drop in building activity, as
expected given the hard lockdown in April and partial shutdown in May.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2020Q2
Last updated: Jun 10 2020 11:52AM
COVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975.
read moreCOVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975.
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release
Last updated: Mar 31 2020 8:01AM
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.
read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release
Last updated: Mar 24 2020 8:55AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity.
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity.
Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q1
Last updated: Mar 19 2020 2:16PM
The downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly
read moreThe downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly decline since the current downward trend started. All social groups have lowered their expectations for the current and the next calendar year by about 0.4% pts to below 5%.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q1
Last updated: Mar 16 2020 10:00AM
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail
read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail sales in general and durables goods in particular. Non-durable goods will continue to benefit from the stable confidence of low- and middle-income earners.