BER press release
Other services survey results 2020Q3, press release
Last updated: Oct 7 2020 8:39AM
Confidence in the other services sector bounced back from 7 to 17 in the third quarter. The performance of the respective sub-sectors related closely to the lifting of the lockdown restrictions. It was too early to estimate the impact of the lifting of the
read moreConfidence in the other services sector bounced back from 7 to 17 in the third quarter. The performance of the respective sub-sectors related closely to the lifting of the lockdown restrictions. It was too early to estimate the impact of the lifting of the inter-provincial leisure travel ban on hotels. Activity in restaurants remained weak. Property sales bounced back, but property management struggled. Business services contracted at the same rate than previously.
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 22 2020 7:54AM
Sentiment in the civil construction sector, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index, increased to a still low level of 11 in 2020Q3, from 5 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the low confidence was continued pressure on activity, which, while improved compared
read moreSentiment in the civil construction sector, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index, increased to a still low level of 11 in 2020Q3, from 5 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the low confidence was continued pressure on activity, which, while improved compared to 2020Q2, is likely well below the level recorded in 2019Q3.
Retail survey results 2020Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 21 2020 8:22AM
The COVID-19 lockdown restrictions narrative continued to find expression in the third quarter of 2020. While retail, wholesale and motor dealer confidence edged up in Q3, trading conditions remain tough for the sector given weak sales volumes and a bleak
read moreThe COVID-19 lockdown restrictions narrative continued to find expression in the third quarter of 2020. While retail, wholesale and motor dealer confidence edged up in Q3, trading conditions remain tough for the sector given weak sales volumes and a bleak macroeconomic environment.
Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q3
Last updated: Sep 17 2020 2:25PM
During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations
read moreDuring the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations are now at a new 15-year low after first achieving this feat in the second quarter.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 15 2020 7:50AM
Building sector confidence, as measured by the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased to 24 in 2020Q3, from 4 in 2020Q2. Leading this rise in confidence was a jump in sentiment among hardware retailers and building material manufacturers. This was
read moreBuilding sector confidence, as measured by the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased to 24 in 2020Q3, from 4 in 2020Q2. Leading this rise in confidence was a jump in sentiment among hardware retailers and building material manufacturers. This was supported by better-than-expected sales growth.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, 2020Q3 (press release)
Last updated: Sep 9 2020 11:19AM
After falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth
read moreAfter falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth and the RMB/BER BCI, the third quarter survey results foreshadow an improvement in the third quarter relative to the second quarter.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 7 2020 9:57AM
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from -33 to -23 in the third quarter. The partial recovery can be ascribed to increases in the household finances and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. The COVID-19 pandemic and related economic
read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from -33 to -23 in the third quarter. The partial recovery can be ascribed to increases in the household finances and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. The COVID-19 pandemic and related economic restrictions delivered a profound blow to consumers' willingness and ability to spend.
Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q2
Last updated: Jul 23 2020 3:05PM
Average inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged
read moreAverage inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.8% relative to the first quarter survey.
All social groups lowered their expectations for 2020. Analysts revised their forecasts for 2020 downwards by a larger margin than business people and trade union representatives. While analysts and trade unionists expect inflation in 2021 and 2022 to be at or below the midpoint of the 3% to 6% target range, business people expect inflation to be above 5%.
Other services survey results 2020Q2, press release
Last updated: Jul 21 2020 8:07AM
The second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of
read moreThe second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of the BER’s other services survey showed that business confidence in the sector plummeted from an already-low level of 17 in the first quarter to a meagre 7 in the second quarter. This is a record low in the 15-year history of the survey. The survey revealed that activity in restaurants, hotels and real estate came to a complete standstill, while transport and business services registered historically unprecedented falls in the second quarter. Along with the record low Q2 reading for the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index and the close to all-time low for the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index , the results of the other services survey provide further evidence that South Africa suffered a historic GDP decline in the second quarter.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release
Last updated: Jul 7 2020 9:42AM
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods
read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods dropped to a historic low of -64. Of all the income groups, the low-income group posted the largest decline in confidence.