BER press release
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2018Q4
Last updated: Jan 24 2019 10:01AM
After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked
read moreAfter falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate.
Inflation Expectations 2018 - Quarter 4
Last updated: Jan 17 2019 1:34PM
In the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3%
read moreIn the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3% in 2018 to 5.6% in 2020. In the fourth quarter, they revised their forecast slightly downwards to 5.1% and 5.4% respectively.
FNB Civil Confidence Index 2018 - Quarter 4
Last updated: Dec 11 2018 9:17AM
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained one point to register a still very depressed level of 18 in 2018Q4. Underpinning the low confidence was a significant decline in construction activity as well as a deterioration in order books.
read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained one point to register a still very depressed level of 18 in 2018Q4. Underpinning the low confidence was a significant decline in construction activity as well as a deterioration in order books.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2018Q4
Last updated: Dec 6 2018 8:55AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index shed 3 index points to register a level of 32 in 2018Q4. Of the four sub-sectors which reported lower confidence, the sharp increase in pessimism among architects and quantity surveyors was of particular concern. This was
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index shed 3 index points to register a level of 32 in 2018Q4. Of the four sub-sectors which reported lower confidence, the sharp increase in pessimism among architects and quantity surveyors was of particular concern. This was underpinned by a marked fall in activity
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2018Q3
Last updated: Nov 28 2018 9:51AM
Consumer confidence levels deteriorated substantially during 2018Q3, with the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) falling from +22 in the second quarter to +7 in the third quarter. Consumer sentiment deteriorated across all income groups, but the drop in
read moreConsumer confidence levels deteriorated substantially during 2018Q3, with the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) falling from +22 in the second quarter to +7 in the third quarter. Consumer sentiment deteriorated across all income groups, but the drop in confidence levels of low-income consumers was particularly severe. A confluence of adverse economic developments in all likelihood deflated the confidence levels of consumers in recent months. Despite the negative correction in consumer sentiment during the third quarter, the latest CCI reading still reflects an above-average level of optimism.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2018Q4
Last updated: Nov 27 2018 10:52AM
After falling from 40 to 34 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI deteriorated marginally further to 31 in the last quarter of 2018. (In addition to the survey results for the fourth quarter, this release also incorporates the outcome of a revision of the
read moreAfter falling from 40 to 34 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI deteriorated marginally further to 31 in the last quarter of 2018. (In addition to the survey results for the fourth quarter, this release also incorporates the outcome of a revision of the surveys. Previously, the BCI had a reading of 39 in the second quarter and 38 in the third quarter of 2018.) Even though improvements have been modest, it’s nonetheless encouraging to see confidence having risen in three out of the five sectors surveyed. In fact, if it wasn’t for the unusually large drop in new vehicle dealer confidence, the RMB/BER BCI would have risen for the first time in almost a year. Yet, concerns continue to linger; in aggregate, seven out of every 10 respondents remain unhappy with prevailing business conditions, while confidence continues to track below the neutral-50 mark in all the sectors.
BER Research Note: Ten years after the Lehman collapse – SA’s post-crisis performance in perspective
Last updated: Oct 10 2018 1:05PM
In marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, the latest BER Research Note looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The relatively simple “back-of-the-envelope” calculations contained
read moreIn marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, the latest BER Research Note looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The relatively simple “back-of-the-envelope” calculations contained in the study provides some insight into the order of magnitude of the cost of the stagnation in the SA economy between 2010 and 2017.
FNB Civil Confidence Index 2018 - Quarter 3
Last updated: Sep 25 2018 7:29AM
Civil contractors remain pessimistic as reflected by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index which, at 17, has been below 20 for more than a year.
Inflation Expectations 2018 - Quarter 3
Last updated: Sep 20 2018 12:51PM
In the third quarter, average headline CPI inflation expectations were 5.3% for 2018, up by 0.1 percentage point (% pt). For 2019 the expectations were 5.6% (up 0.2% pt) and for 2020 they were also 5.6% (up 0.1% pt).
read moreIn the third quarter, average headline CPI inflation expectations were 5.3% for 2018, up by 0.1 percentage point (% pt). For 2019 the expectations were 5.6% (up 0.2% pt) and for 2020 they were also 5.6% (up 0.1% pt).
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2018Q3
Last updated: Sep 18 2018 7:29AM
As in 2018Q2, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a level of 29 in 2018Q3. Although the overall index was flat, there were noteworthy changes in confidence among the sub-sectors which make up the index, particularly a sharp drop in sub-contractor
read moreAs in 2018Q2, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a level of 29 in 2018Q3. Although the overall index was flat, there were noteworthy changes in confidence among the sub-sectors which make up the index, particularly a sharp drop in sub-contractor confidence.