BER press release
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release
Last updated: Mar 31 2020 8:01AM
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.
read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release
Last updated: Mar 24 2020 8:55AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity.
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity.
Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q1
Last updated: Mar 19 2020 2:16PM
The downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly
read moreThe downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly decline since the current downward trend started. All social groups have lowered their expectations for the current and the next calendar year by about 0.4% pts to below 5%.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q1
Last updated: Mar 16 2020 10:00AM
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail
read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail sales in general and durables goods in particular. Non-durable goods will continue to benefit from the stable confidence of low- and middle-income earners.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2020Q1
Last updated: Mar 11 2020 11:02AM
The RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the
read moreThe RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the globe all played a role. January’s 25 basis point interest rate cut was a small positive, but not enough to compensate for the negative developments. Since the survey was completed in early March, things have gone from bad to worse on the global front. The RMB/BER BCI will in all likelihood continue to trend lower in the period ahead, with obvious negative consequences for private sector fixed investment.
Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q4
Last updated: Jan 16 2020 3:07PM
In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously),
read moreIn the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), 4.8% in 2020 (-0.2% pts) and 5.0% in 2021 (-0.1%). Average inflation expectations for 2019 have fallen by 1.5% pts over three years – from 6.0% when surveyed for the first time in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.5% currently.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Jan 14 2020 9:55AM
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stayed unchanged during the fourth quarter of 2019. At -7 index points, consumer confidence remained at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2017 (-8). The confidence gains since Mr. Ramaphosa's election
read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stayed unchanged during the fourth quarter of 2019. At -7 index points, consumer confidence remained at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2017 (-8). The confidence gains since Mr. Ramaphosa's election have now been completely reversed and South Africa's grim economic reality has become apparent to consumers. (The fieldwork for the fourth quarter CCI was completed before the implementation of stage 6 load shedding in December.)
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Dec 9 2019 8:52AM
After improving in 2019Q3, construction activity gained further ground in 2019Q4. The higher activity lifted the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index to 22, from 15 in 2019Q3. This marks the first time since 2017Q2 that confidence has been above 20.
read moreAfter improving in 2019Q3, construction activity gained further ground in 2019Q4. The higher activity lifted the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index to 22, from 15 in 2019Q3. This marks the first time since 2017Q2 that confidence has been above 20.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Dec 4 2019 8:58AM
After receding to a 20-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index edged higher to 25 in 2019Q4. Four sub-sectors registered higher confidence in 4Q2019 namely, hardware retailers (+19), architects (+18), sub-contractors (+12) and main
read moreAfter receding to a 20-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index edged higher to 25 in 2019Q4. Four sub-sectors registered higher confidence in 4Q2019 namely, hardware retailers (+19), architects (+18), sub-contractors (+12) and main contractors (+8). This was almost entirely offset by a 35-index point drop in building material manufacturer confidence.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Nov 27 2019 11:46AM
After dropping from 28 in the second quarter to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rose to 26 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rebounded in three of the five sectors making up the BCI namely the building, manufacturing and retail
read moreAfter dropping from 28 in the second quarter to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rose to 26 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rebounded in three of the five sectors making up the BCI namely the building, manufacturing and retail trade. It declined in the new motor trade and remained essentially unchanged in the wholesale trade sector. Though the fourth quarter rebound in the RMB/BER BCI is encouraging, some realism is necessary: the improvement was a mere five index points and was not broadly-based across sectors. Moreover, at 26, the BCI remained deep in net negative terrain, with a strong majority of respondents still expressing a sense of pessimism.