BER press release
Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q3
Last updated: Sep 19 2019 12:41PM
In the third quarter, analysts, business people and trade unionists on average expect inflation to pick up from 4.6% (4.8% previously) in 2019 to 5.0% (5.0%) in 2020 and 5.1% (5.2%) in 2021.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q3
Last updated: Sep 17 2019 8:09AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six sub-sectors surveyed reported lower confidence, led by a 22- index-point drop in building sub-contractor confidence. In contrast, building material manufacturer confidence increased to 39.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q3
Last updated: Sep 11 2019 11:01AM
The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up
read moreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up the BCI. The only sector that showed an improvement was the motor trade, but even so, the index is still low. Not only did a growing majority of respondents in the third quarter experienced worse business conditions than 12 months ago, but it would appear if more and more business people participating in the survey are simply giving up hope. Courageous leadership is required to reverse this concerning development.
Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q2
Last updated: Jul 18 2019 10:45AM
In the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in
read moreIn the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021, down from the 5.2% and 5.3% previously.
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2019Q2
Last updated: Jun 24 2019 3:03PM
Business sentiment among civil contractors remained in the doldrums in 2019Q2. After falling to an all-time record low of 10 in 2019Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence index edged a mere one point higher to 11 in 2019Q2.
read moreBusiness sentiment among civil contractors remained in the doldrums in 2019Q2. After falling to an all-time record low of 10 in 2019Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence index edged a mere one point higher to 11 in 2019Q2.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q2
Last updated: Jun 18 2019 8:17AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a gain of 4 points to 29 in 2019Q2. While confidence was higher, growth in activity was broadly unchanged. In contrast, activity at the start of the building pipeline (architects and quantity surveyors)
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a gain of 4 points to 29 in 2019Q2. While confidence was higher, growth in activity was broadly unchanged. In contrast, activity at the start of the building pipeline (architects and quantity surveyors) improved.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q2
Last updated: Jun 13 2019 11:50AM
The RMB/BER BCI flatlined at a worryingly low 28 in the second quarter. Sentiment improved in the building, retail and wholesale trade. Yet, improvements on balance were marginal and fully offset by a renewed sharp drop in the confidence of new vehicle
read moreThe RMB/BER BCI flatlined at a worryingly low 28 in the second quarter. Sentiment improved in the building, retail and wholesale trade. Yet, improvements on balance were marginal and fully offset by a renewed sharp drop in the confidence of new vehicle dealers while the confidence of manufacturers slid even further. The latest survey results have dampened hopes of a strong bounce-back following the first quarter’s contraction in GDP.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, 2019Q2
Last updated: May 29 2019 9:47AM
After wilting during the first quarter of 2019, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered slightly during 2019Q2. Following the shock implementation of stage 4 load shedding by Eskom during the first quarter, significantly fewer blackouts during
read moreAfter wilting during the first quarter of 2019, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered slightly during 2019Q2. Following the shock implementation of stage 4 load shedding by Eskom during the first quarter, significantly fewer blackouts during the second quarter probably heartened some consumers. More importantly, the opportunity to vote in South Africa’s 6th democratic election since the end of apartheid most likely buoyed consumers’ hopes for the future. However, household budgets remain constrained by higher personal income taxes, sharp fuel and electricity price hikes and rising unemployment rates. All in all, we expect a further deterioration in real consumer spending growth during 2019.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2019Q1
Last updated: Apr 24 2019 9:53AM
After holding steady between the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) renewed its downward trajectory during 2019Q1. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during the first quarter mirrors the drop in the RMB/BER
read moreAfter holding steady between the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) renewed its downward trajectory during 2019Q1. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during the first quarter mirrors the drop in the RMB/BER business confidence index and points to dismal growth in consumer spending in the first half of 2019. Although the national election in May could see a transitory uptick in consumer sentiment, real after-tax household income will likely remain under pressure throughout 2019.
Inflation Expectations 2019Q1
Last updated: Mar 28 2019 1:08PM
In the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups
relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to
5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge
read moreIn the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups
relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to
5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge up marginally to 5.3% in 2021. Of all the social groups, business people
made the biggest downward adjustment in their expectations, namely from 5.7% to 5.1% in respect of 2019
and from 5.8% to 5.3% for 2020. Trade unions scaled their forecasts for 2019 and 2020 back by 0.5 and 0.3
percentage points (% pts) and analysts by 0.5 and 0.1% pts respectively.