BER press release
Inflation Expectations 2019Q1
Last updated: Mar 28 2019 1:08PM
In the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups
relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to
5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge
read moreIn the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups
relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to
5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge up marginally to 5.3% in 2021. Of all the social groups, business people
made the biggest downward adjustment in their expectations, namely from 5.7% to 5.1% in respect of 2019
and from 5.8% to 5.3% for 2020. Trade unions scaled their forecasts for 2019 and 2020 back by 0.5 and 0.3
percentage points (% pts) and analysts by 0.5 and 0.1% pts respectively.
FNB Civil Confidence Index 2019Q1
Last updated: Mar 26 2019 8:51AM
After remaining largely unchanged in 2018Q4, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed 8 points to register its lowest level ever of 10. Confidence was lower largely on the back of weaker activity growth, which also weighed on profitability.
read moreAfter remaining largely unchanged in 2018Q4, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed 8 points to register its lowest level ever of 10. Confidence was lower largely on the back of weaker activity growth, which also weighed on profitability.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q1
Last updated: Mar 18 2019 8:16AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 7 points to reach an almost eight-year low of 25. During the quarter, two of the six sub-sectors registered higher confidence. Of the four that registered lower confidence, manufacturers (-24) and hardware retailers
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 7 points to reach an almost eight-year low of 25. During the quarter, two of the six sub-sectors registered higher confidence. Of the four that registered lower confidence, manufacturers (-24) and hardware retailers (-23) saw the biggest decline. Overall, the results suggest an intensification of the weak demand conditions plaguing the sector over the past few quarters, with little relief on the horizon
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q1
Last updated: Mar 13 2019 11:54AM
A broad-based weakening in activity pushed confidence down to worrying lows. The RMB/BER BCI declined by a further three points to 28 in the first quarter of 2019. This is the lowest level since the 27 index points recorded in the second quarter of 2017, and
read moreA broad-based weakening in activity pushed confidence down to worrying lows. The RMB/BER BCI declined by a further three points to 28 in the first quarter of 2019. This is the lowest level since the 27 index points recorded in the second quarter of 2017, and before that, the deep recession of 2009. Striking in the first quarter results is how broad-based the weakness in activity has become. Since taking over the reins, President Ramaphosa has launched several initiatives to help reverse South Africa’s decline. But more than this is necessary to get South Africa out of its low-growth bind. Forceful, and in some instances, unpopular structural reforms must also form part of the mix.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2018Q4
Last updated: Jan 24 2019 10:01AM
After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked
read moreAfter falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate.
Inflation Expectations 2018 - Quarter 4
Last updated: Jan 17 2019 1:34PM
In the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3%
read moreIn the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3% in 2018 to 5.6% in 2020. In the fourth quarter, they revised their forecast slightly downwards to 5.1% and 5.4% respectively.
FNB Civil Confidence Index 2018 - Quarter 4
Last updated: Dec 11 2018 9:17AM
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained one point to register a still very depressed level of 18 in 2018Q4. Underpinning the low confidence was a significant decline in construction activity as well as a deterioration in order books.
read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained one point to register a still very depressed level of 18 in 2018Q4. Underpinning the low confidence was a significant decline in construction activity as well as a deterioration in order books.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2018Q4
Last updated: Dec 6 2018 8:55AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index shed 3 index points to register a level of 32 in 2018Q4. Of the four sub-sectors which reported lower confidence, the sharp increase in pessimism among architects and quantity surveyors was of particular concern. This was
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index shed 3 index points to register a level of 32 in 2018Q4. Of the four sub-sectors which reported lower confidence, the sharp increase in pessimism among architects and quantity surveyors was of particular concern. This was underpinned by a marked fall in activity
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2018Q3
Last updated: Nov 28 2018 9:51AM
Consumer confidence levels deteriorated substantially during 2018Q3, with the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) falling from +22 in the second quarter to +7 in the third quarter. Consumer sentiment deteriorated across all income groups, but the drop in
read moreConsumer confidence levels deteriorated substantially during 2018Q3, with the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) falling from +22 in the second quarter to +7 in the third quarter. Consumer sentiment deteriorated across all income groups, but the drop in confidence levels of low-income consumers was particularly severe. A confluence of adverse economic developments in all likelihood deflated the confidence levels of consumers in recent months. Despite the negative correction in consumer sentiment during the third quarter, the latest CCI reading still reflects an above-average level of optimism.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2018Q4
Last updated: Nov 27 2018 10:52AM
After falling from 40 to 34 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI deteriorated marginally further to 31 in the last quarter of 2018. (In addition to the survey results for the fourth quarter, this release also incorporates the outcome of a revision of the
read moreAfter falling from 40 to 34 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI deteriorated marginally further to 31 in the last quarter of 2018. (In addition to the survey results for the fourth quarter, this release also incorporates the outcome of a revision of the surveys. Previously, the BCI had a reading of 39 in the second quarter and 38 in the third quarter of 2018.) Even though improvements have been modest, it’s nonetheless encouraging to see confidence having risen in three out of the five sectors surveyed. In fact, if it wasn’t for the unusually large drop in new vehicle dealer confidence, the RMB/BER BCI would have risen for the first time in almost a year. Yet, concerns continue to linger; in aggregate, seven out of every 10 respondents remain unhappy with prevailing business conditions, while confidence continues to track below the neutral-50 mark in all the sectors.