BER press release
Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q4
Last updated: Jan 16 2020 3:07PM
In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously),
read moreIn the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), 4.8% in 2020 (-0.2% pts) and 5.0% in 2021 (-0.1%). Average inflation expectations for 2019 have fallen by 1.5% pts over three years – from 6.0% when surveyed for the first time in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.5% currently.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Jan 14 2020 9:55AM
The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stayed unchanged during the fourth quarter of 2019. At -7 index points, consumer confidence remained at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2017 (-8). The confidence gains since Mr. Ramaphosa's election
read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stayed unchanged during the fourth quarter of 2019. At -7 index points, consumer confidence remained at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2017 (-8). The confidence gains since Mr. Ramaphosa's election have now been completely reversed and South Africa's grim economic reality has become apparent to consumers. (The fieldwork for the fourth quarter CCI was completed before the implementation of stage 6 load shedding in December.)
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Dec 9 2019 8:52AM
After improving in 2019Q3, construction activity gained further ground in 2019Q4. The higher activity lifted the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index to 22, from 15 in 2019Q3. This marks the first time since 2017Q2 that confidence has been above 20.
read moreAfter improving in 2019Q3, construction activity gained further ground in 2019Q4. The higher activity lifted the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index to 22, from 15 in 2019Q3. This marks the first time since 2017Q2 that confidence has been above 20.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Dec 4 2019 8:58AM
After receding to a 20-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index edged higher to 25 in 2019Q4. Four sub-sectors registered higher confidence in 4Q2019 namely, hardware retailers (+19), architects (+18), sub-contractors (+12) and main
read moreAfter receding to a 20-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index edged higher to 25 in 2019Q4. Four sub-sectors registered higher confidence in 4Q2019 namely, hardware retailers (+19), architects (+18), sub-contractors (+12) and main contractors (+8). This was almost entirely offset by a 35-index point drop in building material manufacturer confidence.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q4
Last updated: Nov 27 2019 11:46AM
After dropping from 28 in the second quarter to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rose to 26 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rebounded in three of the five sectors making up the BCI namely the building, manufacturing and retail
read moreAfter dropping from 28 in the second quarter to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rose to 26 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rebounded in three of the five sectors making up the BCI namely the building, manufacturing and retail trade. It declined in the new motor trade and remained essentially unchanged in the wholesale trade sector. Though the fourth quarter rebound in the RMB/BER BCI is encouraging, some realism is necessary: the improvement was a mere five index points and was not broadly-based across sectors. Moreover, at 26, the BCI remained deep in net negative terrain, with a strong majority of respondents still expressing a sense of pessimism.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2019Q3
Last updated: Nov 5 2019 9:11AM
After holding firm amid a year of very weak economic growth and rising unemployment rates, consumer sentiment finally slumped deep into negative territory during 2019Q3. The latest reading of -7 index points is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2017.
read moreAfter holding firm amid a year of very weak economic growth and rising unemployment rates, consumer sentiment finally slumped deep into negative territory during 2019Q3. The latest reading of -7 index points is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2017. Household budgets are increasingly being strained by rising unemployment, slow wage growth, high tax rates, and soaring electricity prices. The decline in consumer confidence during 2019Q3 signals a further deterioration in consumers' willingness to spend.
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2019Q3
Last updated: Sep 26 2019 7:49AM
After rising by 1 point in 2019Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged 4 points higher to 15 in 2019Q3. This index has now been below 20 for two years. While confidence remained low, activity showed a marked increase which, in
turn, lifted
read moreAfter rising by 1 point in 2019Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged 4 points higher to 15 in 2019Q3. This index has now been below 20 for two years. While confidence remained low, activity showed a marked increase which, in
turn, lifted profitability.
Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q3
Last updated: Sep 19 2019 12:41PM
In the third quarter, analysts, business people and trade unionists on average expect inflation to pick up from 4.6% (4.8% previously) in 2019 to 5.0% (5.0%) in 2020 and 5.1% (5.2%) in 2021.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q3
Last updated: Sep 17 2019 8:09AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six sub-sectors surveyed reported lower confidence, led by a 22- index-point drop in building sub-contractor confidence. In contrast, building material manufacturer confidence increased to 39.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q3
Last updated: Sep 11 2019 11:01AM
The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up
read moreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up the BCI. The only sector that showed an improvement was the motor trade, but even so, the index is still low. Not only did a growing majority of respondents in the third quarter experienced worse business conditions than 12 months ago, but it would appear if more and more business people participating in the survey are simply giving up hope. Courageous leadership is required to reverse this concerning development.