BER press release
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2021Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 20 2021 5:47PM
After falling to 13 in 2021Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged higher to 17. The index has been around the 20-point mark since the middle of 2017. The current index level means that the vast majority (more than eighty per cent) of respondents are
read moreAfter falling to 13 in 2021Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged higher to 17. The index has been around the 20-point mark since the middle of 2017. The current index level means that the vast majority (more than eighty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.
Retail survey results 2021Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 20 2021 8:48AM
Retailer confidence increased marginally by 2 index points to reach a 7-year high of 56 in the third quarter of 2021 – up from 54 in the second quarter. At this level, sentiment is essentially above its long-term average of 39. While this is certainly a
read moreRetailer confidence increased marginally by 2 index points to reach a 7-year high of 56 in the third quarter of 2021 – up from 54 in the second quarter. At this level, sentiment is essentially above its long-term average of 39. While this is certainly a positive development, especially in the aftermath of violent protests and stricter trade restrictions amid a third wave of infections, this confidence was unfortunately not broad-based. Confidence was largely driven by non-durable goods (food and beverages) and hardware retailers on the back of improved sales volumes in these categories. Despite this improvement in sentiment, retailers faced a tough operating environment overall.
Absa Manufacturing Survey 2021Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 15 2021 9:39AM
The Q3 Absa Manufacturing Survey saw a slight dip in overall sector confidence, with business confidence falling five points to 41 during the quarter.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, 2021Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 14 2021 7:58AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index declined to 35 in 2021Q3, from 39 in 2021Q2. This means that, across the building sector pipeline, 65% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. While the composite index remains higher than the
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index declined to 35 in 2021Q3, from 39 in 2021Q2. This means that, across the building sector pipeline, 65% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. While the composite index remains higher than the average of the past few years, it is concerning that the index excluding the hardware retail and building material manufacturing sector – a measure of confidence in the “core” building sector – fell to 20, from 25 in 2021Q2.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 8 2021 8:55AM
After surging by 15 points to 50 in the second quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence index (BCI) retreated to 43 in the third quarter. The unexpected shock of the looting, combined with a variety of other negatives, knocked business confidence hard in the
read moreAfter surging by 15 points to 50 in the second quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence index (BCI) retreated to 43 in the third quarter. The unexpected shock of the looting, combined with a variety of other negatives, knocked business confidence hard in the third quarter. However, retail and wholesale trade confidence (which held up relatively well) cushioned the blow, while manufacturing confidence only fell by five points after the strong 21-point gain in the second quarter. Thanks to this resilience, the adverse developments in the third quarter are likely to only deliver a temporary setback to what otherwise remains a cyclical economic recovery.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, 2021Q3, press release
Last updated: Sep 6 2021 8:59AM
Having slipped from -9 to -13 index points during the second quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered some lost ground to -10 in the third quarter of 2021. The partial recovery can be ascribed to upticks in the household
read moreHaving slipped from -9 to -13 index points during the second quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered some lost ground to -10 in the third quarter of 2021. The partial recovery can be ascribed to upticks in the household financial position and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. Fiscal support in the form of the reintroduction of the SRD grant and cash allowances for government employees to a large extent countered the adverse impacts of the civil unrest on consumer confidence. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations to the 35-49 age group from 15 July and subsequently to the 18-35 age group from 20 August probably also bolstered the confidence levels of these age groups. In all, the latest reading points to a level of resilience among consumers and by extension consumer spending during the third quarter of 2021.
Research Note: The changing landscape of sustainable finance, Press release
Last updated: Aug 19 2021 3:16PM
The climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research
read moreThe climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research Note explores how climate change might affect financial stability and how trends in sustainable finance could help respond to the associated threats and opportunities.
Inflation Expectations Press 2021Q2
Last updated: Jul 22 2021 2:59PM
Inflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts
read moreInflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts respectively in the most recent survey. Respondents, on average, expect inflation to edge up from 4.2% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023.
Other services survey results 2021Q2, press release
Last updated: Jun 30 2021 8:24AM
Confidence in the other services sector rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, from 30 in the first quarter to 34 in the second quarter. Despite the increase, the level of confidence remained low relative to the other sectors covered by the BER, bar the
read moreConfidence in the other services sector rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, from 30 in the first quarter to 34 in the second quarter. Despite the increase, the level of confidence remained low relative to the other sectors covered by the BER, bar the building sector. The upswing in real estate activity and land freight transport gained further traction. In contrast, the improvement in activity in hotels, restaurants and business services was modest. The move to adjusted alert level 4 on 28 June (i.e. after the completion of the survey), which prohibited alcohol sales and limited restaurants to take-aways, is likely to set back the recovery of restaurants and lead to another round of permanent closures and job losses.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release
Last updated: Jun 28 2021 11:15AM
After recovering further from -12 to -9 index points during the first quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) backpedalled to -13 in the second quarter of 2021.