BER press release
BER Research Note: Ten years after the Lehman collapse – SA’s post-crisis performance in perspective
Last updated: Oct 10 2018 1:05PM
In marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, the latest BER Research Note looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The relatively simple “back-of-the-envelope” calculations contained
read moreIn marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, the latest BER Research Note looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The relatively simple “back-of-the-envelope” calculations contained in the study provides some insight into the order of magnitude of the cost of the stagnation in the SA economy between 2010 and 2017.
FNB Civil Confidence Index 2018 - Quarter 3
Last updated: Sep 25 2018 7:29AM
Civil contractors remain pessimistic as reflected by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index which, at 17, has been below 20 for more than a year.
Inflation Expectations 2018 - Quarter 3
Last updated: Sep 20 2018 12:51PM
In the third quarter, average headline CPI inflation expectations were 5.3% for 2018, up by 0.1 percentage point (% pt). For 2019 the expectations were 5.6% (up 0.2% pt) and for 2020 they were also 5.6% (up 0.1% pt).
read moreIn the third quarter, average headline CPI inflation expectations were 5.3% for 2018, up by 0.1 percentage point (% pt). For 2019 the expectations were 5.6% (up 0.2% pt) and for 2020 they were also 5.6% (up 0.1% pt).
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2018Q3
Last updated: Sep 18 2018 7:29AM
As in 2018Q2, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a level of 29 in 2018Q3. Although the overall index was flat, there were noteworthy changes in confidence among the sub-sectors which make up the index, particularly a sharp drop in sub-contractor
read moreAs in 2018Q2, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a level of 29 in 2018Q3. Although the overall index was flat, there were noteworthy changes in confidence among the sub-sectors which make up the index, particularly a sharp drop in sub-contractor confidence.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2018Q3
Last updated: Sep 11 2018 11:00AM
Following a new president inspired jump in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) to 45 in the first quarter, sentiment fell back to 39 in the second quarter and 38 in the third quarter. Although confidence rose marginally in two of the five sectors
read moreFollowing a new president inspired jump in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) to 45 in the first quarter, sentiment fell back to 39 in the second quarter and 38 in the third quarter. Although confidence rose marginally in two of the five sectors covered in the survey, not a single sector in the third quarter had a number above the neutral level of 50 – an infrequent and worrying development.
Inflation Expectations 2018 - Quarter 2
Last updated: Jul 19 2018 2:51PM
In the second quarter, average headline CPI inflation expectations for 2018 remained unchanged relative to the first quarter, but edged up marginally by 0.1 percentage point (% pt) in respect of 2019 and 2020.
read moreIn the second quarter, average headline CPI inflation expectations for 2018 remained unchanged relative to the first quarter, but edged up marginally by 0.1 percentage point (% pt) in respect of 2019 and 2020.
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2018Q2
Last updated: Jul 17 2018 7:46AM
After skyrocketing to an all-time high during the first quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dipped marginally in the second quarter. Since negative corrections have typically followed large spikes in the CCI in the past, we are
read moreAfter skyrocketing to an all-time high during the first quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) dipped marginally in the second quarter. Since negative corrections have typically followed large spikes in the CCI in the past, we are somewhat surprised that consumer confidence levels remained so high following the unparalleled surge in consumer sentiment during the first quarter of 2018. Furthermore, there were several adverse developments in recent months that had the potential to deflate consumer confidence. Although the elevated consumer confidence level suggests that consumers remain most willing to spend their money, this does not necessarily imply that actual consumer spending remained robust during the second quarter. Household income levels and/or access to credit would have had to improve in conjunction with the positive sentiment to see strong household expenditure growth during the second quarter. Although the seeds of an economic recovery were planted with President Ramaphosa's "new dawn" and pledge to eradicate the scourge of corruption, further investor-friendly reforms are urgently needed to boost economic growth and household income levels to avoid bitter disappointment.
FNB Civil Confidence Index 2018 - Quarter 2
Last updated: Jun 26 2018 7:41AM
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 3 points to register a level of 15 in 2018Q2. The sustained low confidence is explained by a deterioration in almost all of the underlying indicators, most notably construction activity and tendering competition.
read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 3 points to register a level of 15 in 2018Q2. The sustained low confidence is explained by a deterioration in almost all of the underlying indicators, most notably construction activity and tendering competition.
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2018Q2
Last updated: Jun 19 2018 7:33AM
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 14 index points in 2018Q2 to register a level of 29. This wiped out all the gains of 2018Q1. While the fall in sentiment was largely due to lower confidence among hardware retailers and manufacturers of building
read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 14 index points in 2018Q2 to register a level of 29. This wiped out all the gains of 2018Q1. While the fall in sentiment was largely due to lower confidence among hardware retailers and manufacturers of building material, underlying activity in the sector was also weaker.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2018Q2
Last updated: Jun 13 2018 10:05AM
After surging from 34 to 45 in the first quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) deteriorated to 39 in the second quarter of 2018. This means that close to three fifths of respondents now regard prevailing business conditions as unsatisfactory –
read moreAfter surging from 34 to 45 in the first quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) deteriorated to 39 in the second quarter of 2018. This means that close to three fifths of respondents now regard prevailing business conditions as unsatisfactory – a disappointing outcome, yet probably an accurate reflection of reality.