The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 11 points to register a level of 52 in 2016Q3. Confidence was lifted by a notable improvement in overall profitability due to less keen tendering price competition and continued (albeit subdued) growth in construction activity.

The seasonally adjusted Barclays Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reversed October’s loss and rose by 2.4 points to 48.3 index points in November. Despite the uptick, this was the fourth straight month that the index stayed below the neutral 50-point mark, suggesting that factory sector output growth remains under pressure. In addition, the average for the first two months of the fourth quarter is 1.8 points below that of the third quarter. In the absence of official data for the fourth quarter, the PMI suggests that output is likely to remain subdued after a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter contraction in manufacturing production in the third quarter.

After jumping by 10 index points to 42 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER business confidence index (BCI) declined to 38 in the final quarter of the year. After considerable increases in the third quarter, confidence dropped back in the motor and retail trade sectors in particular, and to a lesser extent in the wholesale trade. Sentiment among manufacturers remained unchanged at a still depressed level, while the building sector was the only sector that sustained an increase in its BCI. the results continue to point to a “muddle-through” scenario where growth, in all likelihood, continued to move broadly sideways at a low rate in the second half of the year.

Having slipped back from -9 index points in 2016Q1 to -11 in 2016Q2, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered in 2016Q3. However, consumer sentiment remained well below the long-term average reading of +4 for the CCI. The uptick in consumer sentiment during 2016Q3 points to an improved willingness of consumers to spend, but consumers' ability to spend (as measured by their household income and access to credit) remains under considerable pressure.

Economic indicators

Key indicators

Sun Dec 11 2016 02:22:10

Rand-Dollar

13.7951

0.08%

Rand-Pound

17.3328

1.16%

Rand-Euro

14.6068

0.03%

Gold

1159.48

0.00%

Platinum

910.00

0.00%

Brent Crude EOD

53.89

0.00%

R186

8.88

0bps

R207

8.14

0bps

Share indices (Previous day's close)

Last updated: Fri Dec 9 2016 08:03:43

JSE all-share

50543

2.16 %

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43891

2.25 %

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2246

0.22 %

German Dax

11179

1.75 %

Japan Nikkei

18765

1.45 %

Please note


Recent releases

Having slipped back from -9 index points in 2016Q1 to -11 in 2016Q2, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered in 2016Q3. However, consumer sentiment remained well below the long-term average reading of +4 for the CCI. The uptick in consumer sentiment during 2016Q3 points to an improved willingness of consumers to spend, but consumers' ability to spend (as measured by their household income and access to credit) remains under considerable pressure....Get it here

Having slipped back from -9 index points in 2016Q1 to -11 in 2016Q2, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered in 2016Q3. However, consumer sentiment remained well below the long-term average reading of +4 for the CCI. The uptick in consumer sentiment during 2016Q3 points to an improved willingness of consumers to spend, but consumers' ability to spend (as measured by their household income and access to credit) remains under considerable pressure....Get it here

Having slipped back from -9 index points in 2016Q1 to -11 in 2016Q2, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered in 2016Q3. However, consumer sentiment remained well below the long-term average reading of +4 for the CCI. The uptick in consumer sentiment during 2016Q3 points to an improved willingness of consumers to spend, but consumers' ability to spend (as measured by their household income and access to credit) remains under considerable pressure....Get it here

Having slipped back from -9 index points in 2016Q1 to -11 in 2016Q2, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered in 2016Q3. However, consumer sentiment remained well below the long-term average reading of +4 for the CCI. The uptick in consumer sentiment during 2016Q3 points to an improved willingness of consumers to spend, but consumers' ability to spend (as measured by their household income and access to credit) remains under considerable pressure....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to 40 points in 2016Q4, its best level in 12 months. This is 2 points higher than the level of 38 recorded in 2016Q3. Furthermore, confidence was higher in all but 2 of the sub-sectors, namely retailers and manufacturers of building material. However, even though confidence improved, the current level of the index indicates that the majority (sixty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions....Get it here

This report outline some of the key findings of the BER’s 2016Q4 Building survey, including the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index which rose to 40 points in 2016Q4, its best level in 12 months. This is 2 points higher than the level of 38 recorded in 2016Q3. Furthermore, confidence was higher in all but 2 of the sub-sectors, namely retailers and manufacturers of building material. However, even though confidence improved, the current level of the index indicates that the majority (sixty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions....Get it here

This report outline some of the key findings of the BER’s 2016Q4 Building survey, including the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index which rose to 40 points in 2016Q4, its best level in 12 months. This is 2 points higher than the level of 38 recorded in 2016Q3. Furthermore, confidence was higher in all but 2 of the sub-sectors, namely retailers and manufacturers of building material. However, even though confidence improved, the current level of the index indicates that the majority (sixty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions....Get it here

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to 40 points in 2016Q4, its best level in 12 months. This is 2 points higher than the level of 38 recorded in 2016Q4. Furthermore, confidence was higher in all but 2 of the sub-sectors, namely retailers and manufacturers of building material. However, even though confidence improved, the current level of the index indicates that the majority (sixty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions....Get it here

Real GDP growth slowed sharply to only 0.2% q-o-q (saar[1]) in 2016Q3. This is somewhat weaker than our and the market expectation of 0.6%. ...Get it here

Forecast publications

Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017 numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of 2010-15. ...Get it here

The global economy lost some growth momentum during 2016H1, mainly due to softer activity in advanced economies. In contrast, growth held up reasonably well in the developing world. Looking ahead, the outlook for global growth is subdued as developed countries continue to struggle to stimulate domestic demand and emerging markets battle with the consequences of a slowing Chinese economy. The growth outlook for SA remains downbeat as domestic factors compound the softer global economic activity. ...Get it here

The global economy lost some growth momentum during 2016H1, mainly due to softer activity in advanced economies. In contrast, growth held up reasonably well in the developing world. Looking ahead, the outlook for global growth is subdued as developed countries continue to struggle to stimulate domestic demand and emerging markets battle with the consequences of a slowing Chinese economy. The growth outlook for SA remains downbeat as domestic factors compound the softer global economic activity. ...Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Our latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%) and 2017 (1.3%). Over the medium term, GDP growth is forecast to recover to an average of 2.8% between 2019 and 2021. We modelled a risk scenario of multiple credit rating downgrades that results in a significant slowdown in foreign capital inflows from the second half of 2016. This environment sees the rand weakening to an average of R21/$ in 2017Q4, before recovering from early 2018....Get it here

Snapshot

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Weekly

On the domestic data front, the latest BER surveys point to subdued growth prospects for 2016Q4. Growth is already projected to slow markedly in 2016Q3 after a strong showing in Q2 and the latest surveys do not suggest that a significant acceleration is on the cards for the final quarter of 2016. In other domestic news, S&P Global kept its foreign currency rating of SA’s sovereign debt unchanged, while lowering the domestic currency rating by one notch, still two notches above junk. We discuss the implications of the decision in the markets section. Further abroad, there are signs of increased momentum in the Chinese economy. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers for November suggest that growth remained relatively well-supported in 2016Q4. In the US, the latest non-farm payroll report shows that the US labour market continues to strengthen, albeit at a marginally slower pace. In market news, OPEC reached an agreement to cut oil production by around 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting January 2017. This supported the price of oil over the week....Get it here

In domestic news, headline CPI inflation accelerated in October on the back of rising food and petrol prices. Despite the pick-up, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its policy rate unchanged on the back of an unaltered inflation outlook. However, the accompanying statement emphasised that inflation risks are tilted to the upside. If the risks materialise, it may necessitate a higher policy rate. More on this, as well as the latest decisions from Fitch and Moody’s on SA’s credit rating, in the domestic section. On the international front, flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers for some of the world’s largest economies suggest that manufacturing activity continued to expand in November. In the US, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) November meeting confirm an imminent rate hike in the US....Get it here

On Sunday, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa presented the findings of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) report at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac) office in Johannesburg. The report proposes a national minimum wage of R3 500 per month (R20 per hour) to be phased in over the next two to three years. The report recommends that wages in the domestic work sector should be set at 75% of the minimum wage level and at 90% in the agricultural sector, while some businesses could also apply for exceptions. In addition, Ramaphosa highlighted the progress made with strike balloting, which could help to “prevent long strikes from having a negative impact on the economy, on workers and businesses”. The NMW recommendations still need to be affirmed by legislation, but given that the proposed level is at the lower end of the scale that was talked about, they are likely to be positively received by credit ratings agencies. On the domestic data front, disappointing retail and wholesale trade figures supported earlier expectations that economic growth will slow significantly in Q3 compared to Q2. The trade figures, as well as our estimate for Q3 GDP growth, are discussed in the domestic section. In the international section, we unpack recent US data and European GDP figures. The US data firmed our view, as well as the general market expectation, that a US interest rate hike is on the cards for December. This fuelled broad-based dollar strength, which contributed to the weakening of the rand exchange rate – see markets....Get it here

Last week’s newsflow was dominated by political events. The main focus was on the result of the US election on Tuesday. Some polls put Hilary Clinton’s chances of winning the election at more than 90%, even while voting results started to roll in. However, Donald Trump became the US president-elect after surprising wins in battleground states. In reaction to the shock election result, the major financial market moves included higher US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and weakness in emerging market currencies, including the rand. In the current affairs section, we unpack the possible implications of the Trump presidency for the SA economy. On the economic data front, SA’s Q3 manufacturing and mining data confirm that GDP growth is likely to slow significantly from its solid expansion in Q2. In the international section, China and UK trade data are unpacked as well industrial production figures from the UK. ...Get it here

Domestic financial markets were dominated by developments on the political front last week. Global markets were also impacted by politics as polls showed that this week’s US presidential election will go down to the wire. There were also a number of local and international data releases last week. The domestic section covers the October new vehicle sales and the Barclays Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), as well as the trade balance for September. The international section focuses on the latest central bank policy decisions in the US and the UK, as well as the October US jobs market report. Both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) held rates steady for now, though a rate hike in the US seems to be on the cards for December. ...Get it here

Domestic economic news last week was dominated by the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), tabled in parliament by the Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan. Besides the MTBPS, producer prices were reported at lower levels in September, while domestic credit extension accelerated somewhat in the same month. On the international front, the first GDP print for the UK following the Brexit vote surprised markets on the upside. Meanwhile, US GDP accelerated in Q3 to its best quarterly growth rate in two years. The latest purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) are also discussed in brief. In the markets section, the wage negotiations in the platinum sector are tracked, and the impact of the MTBPS on the currency is summarised briefly....Get it here