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FNB/BER CCI 2019Q3

After holding firm amid a year of very weak economic growth and rising unemployment rates,consumer sentiment finally slumped deep into negative territory during 2019Q3. The sharp drop in the CCI during t2019Q3 can mainly be ascribed to a completereversal in the economic outlook sub-index of the CCI and a further deterioration in the time-to-buy durable goods index.

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After rising by 1 point in 2019Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged 4 points higher to 15 in 2019Q3. This index has now been below 20 for two years. While confidence remained low, activity showed a marked increase which, in turn, lifted profitability.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 48.1 index points in October, up from a revised 45.1 index points in September. The October level was slightly higher than the average of 47.3 recorded during the third quarter and in line with the average of 48.3 points recorded during the first nine months of the year.

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six sub-sectors surveyed reported lower confidence, led by a 22- index-point drop in building sub-contractor confidence. In contrast, building material manufacturer confidence increased to 39.

After holding firm amid a year of very weak economic growth and rising unemployment rates, consumer sentiment finally slumped deep into negative territory during 2019Q3. The latest reading of -7 index points is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2017. Household budgets are increasingly being strained by rising unemployment, slow wage growth, high tax rates, and soaring electricity prices. The decline in consumer confidence during 2019Q3 signals a further deterioration in consumers' willingness to spend.