On the domestic front, GDP growth rebounded from a contraction in the first quarter and came out better than expected in 2016Q2. Looking forward, the robust 10-point improvement in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) for Q3 suggests that the solid Q2 growth momentum may be sustained in the second half of 2016. However, the broad-based improvement in confidence was not accompanied by uniform improvements in underlying activity measures. Indeed, the first official data available for Q3 indicates that GDP growth could slow sharply – see domestic section.
The outcome of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting is unpacked in the international section. We also report on the July UK industrial production, as it reflected the first full month after the June Brexit vote, and US services data which disappointed....Get it here