The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index fell to 28 in 2017Q2, from 40 in 2017Q1. This, along with 2016Q1, is the joint lowest confidence since the end of 2011. The current level of the index means that more than seventy per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 46.7 index points in June 2017 from 51.5 in May. The deterioration was broad based with four of the five main subcomponents moving lower compared to May. The recent volatility is probably driven, or at least exacerbated, by continued uncertainty about the outlook for the domestic economy.

The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index collapsed by 11 points to 29 in 2017Q2. Confidence declined across all of the five sectors surveyed and might signal that the current business cycle downswing is becoming even more pronounced.

After increasing from -10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to -5 in the first quarter of 2017, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell back to -9 in the second quarter. Although consumer confidence levels remained depressed and not supportive of meaningful growth in household spending, levels remained above the recent low reached in 2015. The slump in retail sales growth and the decline in new car sales volumes can therefore mainly be attributed to a deterioration in consumers’ ability to spend.

Economic indicators

Key indicators

Fri Jul 21 2017 10:25:16

Rand-Dollar

12.9713

-0.38%

Rand-Pound

16.8545

-0.23%

Rand-Euro

15.0970

-0.36%

Gold

1247.29

0.27%

Platinum

929.50

0.60%

Brent Crude EOD

49.30

-0.78%

R186

8.55

0bps

R207

7.49

16bps

Share indices (Previous day's close)

Last updated: Fri Jul 21 2017 08:07:58

JSE all-share

54287

0.36 %

JSE Top 40

47910

0.34 %

US S&P 500

2473

-0.02%

German Dax

12447

-0.04%

Japan Nikkei

20145

0.62 %

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Recent releases

Against the overwhelming financial market consensus - and our expectation - for an unchanged repo rate, the MPC reduced the policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.75% (prime rate down to 10.25%)....Get it here

Average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for all three forecast periods declined marginally in the second quarter. Expectations for 2017 declined by 0.3% pts to 5.9%, while those for 2018 and 2019 declined by 0.1% pt each to 5.8% and 5.9% respectively....Get it here

Average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for all three forecast periods declined marginally in the second quarter. Expectations for 2017 declined by 0.3% pts to 5.9%, while those for 2018 and 2019 declined by 0.1% pt each to 5.8% and 5.9% respectively....Get it here

On the domestic front, output in both manufacturing and mining output contracted slightly during May. However, the net result for the second quarter could still turn out positive. Regarding South African consumers, confidence levels remained within negative territory during the second quarter. This marked the longest streak where consumer confidence has been at or below zero since the survey started in 1982. On the international scene, China published upbeat economic growth results for the second quarter, while trade data for June also point towards strong momentum. Meanwhile, retail sales in the US declined for the second consecutive month in June, in conjunction with a slowing inflation rate. Furthermore, testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen was taken by the markets to have a slight dovish tone. As a result, the dollar weakened, while global stock markets gained significantly. ...Get it here

Monthly survey of leading South African economists who forecast key macroeconomic variables....Get it here

The weaker-than-expected start to the year and the constraints imposed on the economy by the rating agencies have resulted in yet another downgrade to our GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018....Get it here

The weaker-than-expected start to the year and the constraints imposed on the economy by the rating agencies have resulted in yet another downgrade to our GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018....Get it here

Please note: This publication contains results for both the 2017Q1 and 2017Q2 consumer confidence surveys. After increasing from -10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to -5 in the first quarter of 2017, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell back to -9 in the second quarter. The economic outlook sub-index fell sharply, while fewer consumers expect their own household finances to improve in the next 12 months....Get it here

Please note: This publication contains results for both the 2017Q1 and 2017Q2 consumer confidence surveys. After increasing from -10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to -5 in the first quarter of 2017, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell back to -9 in the second quarter. The economic outlook sub-index fell sharply, while fewer consumers expect their own household finances to improve in the next 12 months....Get it here

Please note: This publication contains results for both the 2017Q1 and 2017Q2 consumer confidence surveys. After increasing from -10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to -5 in the first quarter of 2017, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell back to -9 in the second quarter. The economic outlook sub-index fell sharply, while fewer consumers expect their own household finances to improve in the next 12 months....Get it here

Forecast publications

The weaker-than-expected start to the year and the constraints imposed on the economy by the rating agencies have resulted in yet another downgrade to our GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018....Get it here

The weaker-than-expected start to the year and the constraints imposed on the economy by the rating agencies have resulted in yet another downgrade to our GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018....Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

The repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the medium-term prospects for the SA economy. Indeed, notable forecast adjustments include that we now expect almost no increase in SA per capita GDP over the next six years and slippage on fiscal debt metrics....Get it here

Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017 numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of 2010-15. ...Get it here

Snapshot

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Weekly

On the domestic front, output in both manufacturing and mining output contracted slightly during May. However, the net result for the second quarter could still turn out positive. Regarding South African consumers, confidence levels remained within negative territory during the second quarter. This marked the longest streak where consumer confidence has been at or below zero since the survey started in 1982. On the international scene, China published upbeat economic growth results for the second quarter, while trade data for June also point towards strong momentum. Meanwhile, retail sales in the US declined for the second consecutive month in June, in conjunction with a slowing inflation rate. Furthermore, testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen was taken by the markets to have a slight dovish tone. As a result, the dollar weakened, while global stock markets gained significantly. ...Get it here

The domestic economic calendar was very light last week, with the only two notable releases early in the week. The news headlines were dominated by the ANC’s National Policy Conference (NPC), which is discussed briefly in the domestic section with the market implications (mainly on the rand) unpacked in the markets section. In the international section, we review the latest jobs data from the US, which came out stronger than expected. However, wage growth remained weak. We also discuss the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the US, Eurozone and China....Get it here

In the domestic section, we unpack job statistics, trade data and producer price inflation data. The jobs data shows that the economy lost formal sector jobs in Q1, in line with the weak growth performance. On the positive side, the trade data reflected a surplus for a fourth straight month. On the international front, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from China points to continued strong growth in the economy. ...Get it here

Investor sentiment soured last week following a recommendation by the Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, that the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) be amended to exclude the clause “to protect the value of the currency”. This saw a sell-off in the rand, which was already under pressure following the announcement of the new Mining Charter the week before last. On the global front, economic growth lost some momentum in June. The flash Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in both the US and the Eurozone (EZ) lost some ground. However, both remained above 50 and merely suggests that the pace of economic growth moderated somewhat. Domestically, the SARB revealed that the current account of the balance of payments widened in 2017Q1, after narrowing sharply during 2016Q4....Get it here

Besides the reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision and commentary, domestic financial markets were dominated by the release of the new Mining Charter on Thursday. Mining shares in particular reacted negatively to the onerous transformation targets contained in the Charter. On the data front, domestic retail trade data for April surprised on the upside. However, annual growth in wholesale trade sales contracted. This, on balance, points to a continuation of the weak consumer demand we saw in 2017Q1. An 11-point fall in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index in 2017Q2 confirms the more sedate domestic demand conditions. Meanwhile, on the international front, the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) lifted interest rates for the 3rd time in 12 months. The main impetus behind the hike was unemployment and inflation which have, in recent times, been close to or at targets levels. ...Get it here

Data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that the SA economy entered a technical recession in 2017Q1. We unpack the latest GDP data, together with the first data releases for 2017Q2, in the domestic section. The latest ratings decision by Moody’s is discussed in the markets section. In the international section we discuss the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) as well as the purchasing mangers’ index (PMI) and inflation data from China....Get it here