The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 3 points to register a level of 15 in 2018Q2. The sustained low confidence is explained by a deterioration in almost all of the underlying indicators, most notably construction activity and tendering competition.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell further below the neutral 50-point mark in June. The index lost 1.9 points to reach 47.9, down from 49.8 points in May. The dip means that the average level recorded during the second quarter is only 0.3 points above the first-quarter average and still below the key 50 level. This suggests that the sector is unlikely to stage a solid recovery after output contracted on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter.

After surging from 34 to 45 in the first quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) deteriorated to 39 in the second quarter of 2018. This means that close to three fifths of respondents now regard prevailing business conditions as unsatisfactory – a disappointing outcome, yet probably an accurate reflection of reality.

The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) skyrocketed to an all-time high of +26 in the first quarter of 2018. The latest reading surpassed the previous record high of+23 index points reached in the first quarter of 2007. The dramatic increase signals a substantial improvement in consumers' willingness to spend. The extraordinary improvement in consumer sentiment can largely be ascribed to the change in the country’s leadership. There is a risk that the CCI overshot during the first quarter on the back of the positive sentiment, implying that there could be a negative correction during the second quarter.

Economic indicators

Key indicators

Mon Jul 16 2018 12:25:03

Rand-Dollar

13.1911

-0.61%

Rand-Pound

17.4960

-0.46%

Rand-Euro

15.4425

-0.41%

Gold

1243.75

0.07%

Platinum

828.75

0.10%

Brent Crude EOD

74.99

0.00%

R186

8.70

-3bps

R207

7.42

-4bps

Share indices (Previous day's close)

Last updated: Mon Jul 16 2018 08:14:02

JSE all-share

56364

-0.85%

JSE Top 40

50244

-0.85%

US S&P 500

2801

0.11 %

German Dax

12541

0.38 %

Japan Nikkei

22597

1.85 %

Please note


Recent releases

In domestic news, both mining and manufacturing output rebounded in May after posting weak growth in April. However, mining output is still set to contract in 2018Q2, while only a slight rebound is on the cards for manufacturing production as output growth remains lacklustre. Furthermore, the near-term outlook for the mining sector is clouded by the possibility of labour unrest following the commencement of wage negotiations in the gold sector. On the international front, US consumer price inflation rose to a six-year high in June, suggesting further interest rates hikes remain firmly on the cards. Across the pacific, China’s trade surplus with the US rose to a record-high in June which could provide further ammunition for President Trump in the ongoing trade dispute. ...Get it here

On the domestic front, economic news was a mixed bag last week. On the upside, domestic vehicle sales continued to grow, especially in the case of heavy vehicles such as trucks and buses. On the downside, electricity output remained under pressure. On the international scene, nonfarm payroll data indicates that the US economy is still creating new jobs at a steady rate. Meanwhile, June Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the US and China reflect a vibrant economy in the US during the second quarter, and ‘business as usual’ in China. Furthermore, the IMF scaled down its outlook for the German economy. On financial markets the US dollar lost some ground after Chinese officials said they will not use the yuan as a trade-policy weapon, benefiting emerging market (EM) currencies to some extent. ...Get it here

The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast....Get it here

The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast....Get it here

Comprehensive economic statistics handbook. The latest South African and international economic data is presented in tables and graphs. Sectoral trends are also displayed....Get it here

Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings.

...Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Fact sheet of key monthly economic data and financial market indicators. The release accompanies the BER's economic forecast report, Economic Prospects....Get it here

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell further below the neutral 50-point mark in June. The index lost 1.9 points to reach 47.9, down from 49.8 points in May. The dip means that the average level recorded during the second quarter is only 0.3 points above the first-quarter average and still below the key 50 level. This suggests that the sector is unlikely to stage a solid recovery after output contracted on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter....Get it here

The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 3 points to register a level of 15 in 2018Q2. The sustained low confidence is explained by a deterioration in almost all of the underlying indicators, most notably construction activity and tendering competition....Get it here

Forecast publications

The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast....Get it here

The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast....Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Medium-term prospects for the SA economy have improved. Mostly, this stems from notably less concern about domestic politics and the policy environment....Get it here

Given the lack of visibility on politics and the recent negative experience, we have stuck to a conservative medium-term real GDP growth outlook of only 1.6%....Get it here

Snapshot

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Weekly

In domestic news, both mining and manufacturing output rebounded in May after posting weak growth in April. However, mining output is still set to contract in 2018Q2, while only a slight rebound is on the cards for manufacturing production as output growth remains lacklustre. Furthermore, the near-term outlook for the mining sector is clouded by the possibility of labour unrest following the commencement of wage negotiations in the gold sector. On the international front, US consumer price inflation rose to a six-year high in June, suggesting further interest rates hikes remain firmly on the cards. Across the pacific, China’s trade surplus with the US rose to a record-high in June which could provide further ammunition for President Trump in the ongoing trade dispute. ...Get it here

On the domestic front, economic news was a mixed bag last week. On the upside, domestic vehicle sales continued to grow, especially in the case of heavy vehicles such as trucks and buses. On the downside, electricity output remained under pressure. On the international scene, nonfarm payroll data indicates that the US economy is still creating new jobs at a steady rate. Meanwhile, June Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the US and China reflect a vibrant economy in the US during the second quarter, and ‘business as usual’ in China. Furthermore, the IMF scaled down its outlook for the German economy. On financial markets the US dollar lost some ground after Chinese officials said they will not use the yuan as a trade-policy weapon, benefiting emerging market (EM) currencies to some extent. ...Get it here

Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings.

...Get it here

The rand hit a 7-month low against the US dollar last week as emerging market assets continued to suffer....Get it here

A raft of domestic data released last week suggested that, after a poor first quarter, the SA economy remained under pressure at the start of 2018Q2. ...Get it here

Over the weekend, welcome news broke that the majority of public sector trade unions had signed a multi-year wage deal with the government. Unfortunately, the costs are significantly more than budgeted for by National Treasury in the February Budget. This means that the government is faced with some tough choices. The fact that GDP growth disappointed in Q1 and suggests that full-year growth could be lower than forecast by Treasury further complicates matters. This, as well as the latest manufacturing output data, is unpacked in the domestic section. On the international data front, the major releases focussed on trade and the outcomes were essentially fuel on the fire of the trade-war rhetoric coming from the US. The big US trade deficit remains one of US President Donald Trump’s pet peeves. Trump made this clear again on a Twitter rant in the wake of the weekend’s G7 meeting in Canada. ...Get it here