#BERfocus

BER survey results: implications at a glance

The underlying survey results are consistent with a mild improvement in growth during Q4, even with the slight decline in the overall RMB/BER BCI

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Recent Releases

After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate....Get it here

After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate....Get it here

After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate....Get it here

Domestically, markets were focused on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week. On the global front, the news flow was dominated by British political chaos associated with the Brexit debacle. Besides a brief overview of the MPC decision, the domestic section looks at the latest retail sales data, which surprised on the upside. In contrast, mining data disappointed. The international section discusses a slew of data from China, the US and the Eurozone. The section also briefly refers to the outcome of the Brexit vote in the UK parliament. ...Get it here

The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate at 10.25%)....Get it here

In the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3% in 2018 to 5.6% in 2020. In the fourth quarter, they revised their forecast slightly downwards to 5.1% and 5.4% respectively....Get it here

In the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3% in 2018 to 5.6% in 2020. In the fourth quarter, they revised their forecast slightly downwards to 5.1% and 5.4% respectively....Get it here

Comprehensive economic statistics handbook. The latest South African and international economic data is presented in tables and graphs. Sectoral trends are also displayed....Get it here

A monthly check on the forecast and latest data fact sheet, supplementing the BER’s quarterly forecast of the SA economy...Get it here

Domestic data released during the first full week of 2019 presented a mixed bag. Manufacturing data, both survey and official statistics, suggest that the factory sector ended 2018 on a positive note. However, new vehicle sales data for December confirmed that overall sales declined in 2018 compared to 2017. International news headlines were mostly focused on political developments, including the continued government shutdown in the US, trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as Brexit developments (or the lack thereof). On the economic front, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy. ...Get it here

Forecast publications

Real GDP growth for 2019 has been revised down to 1.3% from 1.5% before. Growth is still expected to accelerate towards 2% during 2020....Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

A monthly check on the forecast and latest data fact sheet, supplementing the BER’s quarterly forecast of the SA economy...Get it here

This month, we have made minor adjustments to the oil price, rand exchange rate and inflation forecasts. ...Get it here

In April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP growth outlook has been revised (slightly) lower....Get it here

The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued consumer demand environment, weak private sector fixed investment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy. Add to that creeping concerns regarding global growth, and we are far less optimistic about the short-term outlook than in early-2018....Get it here

Medium-term prospects for the SA economy have improved. Mostly, this stems from notably less concern about domestic politics and the policy environment....Get it here

Snapshot

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Weekly

Domestically, markets were focused on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week. On the global front, the news flow was dominated by British political chaos associated with the Brexit debacle. Besides a brief overview of the MPC decision, the domestic section looks at the latest retail sales data, which surprised on the upside. In contrast, mining data disappointed. The international section discusses a slew of data from China, the US and the Eurozone. The section also briefly refers to the outcome of the Brexit vote in the UK parliament. ...Get it here

Domestic data released during the first full week of 2019 presented a mixed bag. Manufacturing data, both survey and official statistics, suggest that the factory sector ended 2018 on a positive note. However, new vehicle sales data for December confirmed that overall sales declined in 2018 compared to 2017. International news headlines were mostly focused on political developments, including the continued government shutdown in the US, trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as Brexit developments (or the lack thereof). On the economic front, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy. ...Get it here

A barrage of domestic data was released this week, most of which point to a relatively solid start for the economy in 2018Q4 – following the better-than-expected Q3 GDP print. Besides the data releases, it is worth highlighting that President Ramaphosa suggested in a radio interview on Thursday that the government was unlikely to provide Eskom with substantial additional financial assistance. How the government deals with Eskom is likely to be a key factor that influences the domestic economic outlook in 2019, and beyond. Internationally the focus is mainly on the outcome of the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) at which it was decided to formally end the bank’s bond-buying programme. This at a time when the region faces multiple headwinds, most of which pose a downside risk to the economic growth outlook. ...Get it here

Dominating the domestic headlines last week was the news that South Africa exited a technical recession in 2018Q3. While this was widely expected, the pace of GDP growth surprised on the upside. More on this in the domestic section. After the release of some survey data for the fourth quarter (see domestic section for details), a spate of actual activity data releases this week will provide further guidance on how GDP growth performed in 2018Q4. On the international front, US employment data rose by less than expected in November while the international trade balance data for October recorded the biggest deficit in ten years. This, as well as PMI data from China, is discussed here. ...Get it here

In the domestic section we unpack the latest BER consumer and business confidence numbers. The latest reading for the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and producer price inflation figures for October are also discussed. On the international front, PMI data confirms that Chinese growth continues to slow, while comments by US Federal Reserve officials point toward a possibly more dovish interest rate stance for the US central bank....Get it here

On the domestic front, the main focus was on the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) monetary policy decision last week. The SARB decided to hike the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) after a rigorous debate. The decision mainly hinged on sustained higher inflation going forward (with further upside risks) and the bank hoping to prevent more aggressive rate hikes in the future by acting now. On a positive note, the Brent crude oil price continued its steady decline last week, which means local consumers may see some relief on the petrol price front next month – see the markets section. In the international section, we unpack the latest flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the Eurozone and the US. The PMI suggests that growth is continuing to trend lower in the Eurozone, but remains solid in the US. The section also briefly refers to the Brexit deal endorsed by the European Union (EU) over the weekend. ...Get it here

The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained one point to register a still very depressed level of 18 in 2018Q4. Underpinning the low confidence was a significant decline in construction activity as well as a deterioration in order books.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ended 2018 on a positive note, reaching the best level of the year. The PMI rose from 49.5 in November to 50.7 points in December, which is just above the neutral mark and signals growth in the sector.

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index shed 3 index points to register a level of 32 in 2018Q4. Of the four sub-sectors which reported lower confidence, the sharp increase in pessimism among architects and quantity surveyors was of particular concern. This was underpinned by a marked fall in activity

After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate.