The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 4 points to register a level of 19 in 2017Q4. This lifts the index from the 17-year low recorded in 2017Q3. Despite the slight uptick in confidence, growth in construction activity slowed further in the quarter.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.9 index points in January. This is the best reading since May 2017 and the 5-point rise more than makes up for the 3.7-point slump experienced in December. The January PMI suggests that the local manufacturing sector started the year on relatively solid ground compared to recent readings.

The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) essentially flatlined at 34 in the fourth quarter. While this is an improvement on the seven and a half-year low of 29 in the second quarter, sentiment clearly remained depressed.

Having slumped from -5 in the first quarter of 2017 to -9 during the second quarter, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) remained low at -8 index points in the fourth quarter of 2017. Consumer are slightly more positive about the outlook for the domestic economy, but remain downbeat with respect to their own financial position. Low consumer confidence levels point to a low willingness to spend among consumers.

Economic indicators

Key indicators

Sun Feb 25 2018 09:07:08

Rand-Dollar

11.5448

0.00%

Rand-Pound

16.1351

0.00%

Rand-Euro

14.2021

0.00%

Gold

1328.22

0.00%

Platinum

994.52

0.00%

Brent Crude EOD

66.24

0.00%

R186

8.02

0bps

R207

6.62

0bps

Share indices (Previous day's close)

Last updated: Fri Feb 23 2018 08:07:46

JSE all-share

58155

-0.77%

JSE Top 40

51259

-0.91%

US S&P 500

2704

0.10 %

German Dax

12462

-0.07%

Japan Nikkei

21736

-1.07%

Please note


Recent releases

The Budget started to repair the fiscal credibility lost in October when the MTBPS shocked domestic financial markets and resulted in further sovereign credit rating downgrades. ...Get it here

It was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s ascension to the position of ANC president last December. In this edition of the weekly review, the focus is on the domestic labour market on the back of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) – which revealed a drop in the unemployment rate – as well as wholesale and retail trade sales data. This, along with a brief discussion of some of the highlights of President Ramaphosa’s first SONA. On the international front, inflation in both the US and UK was somewhat higher-than-expected in January. For the US, sustained above-consensus inflation prints will add further fuel to the argument that the policy interest rate may be raised by more than previously expected....Get it here

The last number of weeks have seen significant developments on the domestic political front. Against that backdrop, this brief note explores how recent events are likely to impact the domestic economic landscape. ...Get it here

Notable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output expanded at a faster pace, mining output growth moderated. The latest figures point to a positive contribution from the manufacturing sector to 2017Q4 GDP growth, while mining likely weighed on overall growth. For 2017 as a whole, mining output picked up while manufacturing output declined slightly. In international news, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged. However, officials did hint at the possibility of renewed tightening on the back of stronger global and UK growth, as well as rising inflation expectations. In China, the January Caixin Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) pointed toward a strong start to 2018 following the slightly faster-than-expected expansion in overall economic activity during 2017. ...Get it here

In the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in domestic economic activity, there are signs that conditions could improve meaningfully as we head deeper into 2018. In the international section, we discuss the latest labour market data from the US, GDP data from the Eurozone and PMI data from China. In all, these releases point to a continued strengthening in the global economy....Get it here

Comprehensive economic statistics handbook. The latest South African and international economic data is presented in tables and graphs. Sectoral trends are also displayed....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.9 index points in January. This is the best reading since May 2017 and the 5-point rise more than makes up for the 3.7-point slump experienced in December. The January PMI suggests that the local manufacturing sector started the year on relatively solid ground compared to recent readings. ...Get it here

Fact sheet of key monthly economic data and financial market indicators. The release accompanies the BER's economic forecast report, Economic Prospects....Get it here

Having slumped from -5 in the first quarter of 2017 to -9 during the second quarter, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) remained low at -8 index points in the fourth quarter of 2017. Consumer are slightly more positive about the outlook for the domestic economy, but remain downbeat with respect to their own financial position. Low consumer confidence levels point to a low willingness to spend among consumers....Get it here

Forecast publications

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

The positive impact of the improved domestic political environment and the broad-based upturn in the global economy has improved the prospects for GDP growth. Despite these positive developments, a number of major hurdles remain for the SA economy. However, relative to our October forecast, the risks to the outlook are more evenly balanced. There is also greater potential for an upside surprise....Get it here

Given the lack of visibility on politics and the recent negative experience, we have stuck to a conservative medium-term real GDP growth outlook of only 1.6%....Get it here

As has been the case over the past 12 to 18 months, local concerns continue to counter global factors in driving domestic economic performance. At a time when global growth is looking up and investor sentiment towards emerging markets remains robust, SA appears to be in no position to take advantage of the favourable conditions. Political infighting, policy uncertainty and structural constraints continue to hamper domestic growth prospects....Get it here

The repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the medium-term prospects for the SA economy. Indeed, notable forecast adjustments include that we now expect almost no increase in SA per capita GDP over the next six years and slippage on fiscal debt metrics....Get it here

Snapshot

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Weekly

It was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s ascension to the position of ANC president last December. In this edition of the weekly review, the focus is on the domestic labour market on the back of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) – which revealed a drop in the unemployment rate – as well as wholesale and retail trade sales data. This, along with a brief discussion of some of the highlights of President Ramaphosa’s first SONA. On the international front, inflation in both the US and UK was somewhat higher-than-expected in January. For the US, sustained above-consensus inflation prints will add further fuel to the argument that the policy interest rate may be raised by more than previously expected....Get it here

Notable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output expanded at a faster pace, mining output growth moderated. The latest figures point to a positive contribution from the manufacturing sector to 2017Q4 GDP growth, while mining likely weighed on overall growth. For 2017 as a whole, mining output picked up while manufacturing output declined slightly. In international news, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged. However, officials did hint at the possibility of renewed tightening on the back of stronger global and UK growth, as well as rising inflation expectations. In China, the January Caixin Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) pointed toward a strong start to 2018 following the slightly faster-than-expected expansion in overall economic activity during 2017. ...Get it here

In the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in domestic economic activity, there are signs that conditions could improve meaningfully as we head deeper into 2018. In the international section, we discuss the latest labour market data from the US, GDP data from the Eurozone and PMI data from China. In all, these releases point to a continued strengthening in the global economy....Get it here

Given a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, most attention continued to be focused on currency movements (see markets section). The domestic section highlights the latest consumer and producer price trends. Both measures accelerated marginally in December, mostly on the back of a significant rise in the price of petrol. However, for the full year of 2017, consumer and producer price growth was lower than in 2016. The international section deals with the latest flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting and GDP growth numbers for the US and the UK....Get it here

Among domestic economic news last week was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate announcement on Thursday. As expected, the repurchase (repo) rate remained unchanged. The decision was accompanied by a downward revision to the Bank’s inflation forecast and upward adjustment to the growth forecast. Besides monetary policy, domestic retail sales and mining production numbers are also discussed in the domestic section. On the international front, China published its GDP number for the fourth quarter, which was better than expected and in step with the general global upswing. Meanwhile, US consumers felt slightly less optimistic in January, despite the new tax cuts. The major story in domestic financial markets remained the continued strengthening in the value of the rand exchange rate. ...Get it here

The ANC elective conference dominated the local news headlines over the past few weeks. We discuss the market reaction following the outcome of the conference in the markets section below. On the domestic data front, the key releases over the past weeks were official manufacturing statistics for November as well as the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December. While the November output data came out better than expected, the PMI results were disappointing. In sharp contrast, the global economy ended the year on a high note. The J.P. Morgan global manufacturing PMI came in at a near seven-year high in December. The more recent global real economy data confirmed the robustness reflected in the survey data and will be discussed in the international section below. ...Get it here