The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained 5 points to register a level of 40 in 2017Q1. The higher confidence was supported by a slight improvement in construction activity. However, profitability remained under pressure.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) managed to hold on to recent gains and only dipped slightly lower in March 2017. The index declined to 52.2 points from 52.5 in February, thereby remaining above the neutral 50-point mark for a third straight month. This was supported by all five major subcomponents coming in above 50 points - the last time this occurred was in May 2012.

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index improved for the third consecutive quarter, rising by 3 points to 43 in 2017Q1. This marks the highest confidence in more than a year. However, despite the higher confidence, building activity was broadly lower, especially for main contractors.

After rebounding from -11 index points in 2016Q2 to -3 in 2016Q3, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) sagged back to -10 in 2016Q4. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during 2016Q4 came on the back of a reversal in the gains that were made during the third quarter for the two forward-looking sub-indices of the CCI.

Economic indicators

Key indicators

Sun Apr 23 2017 23:35:58

Rand-Dollar

12.9669

-1.05%

Rand-Pound

16.6363

0.74%

Rand-Euro

14.1085

0.25%

Gold

1284.51

0.06%

Platinum

970.00

0.00%

Brent Crude EOD

52.92

0.00%

R186

8.64

0bps

R207

7.52

0bps

Share indices (Previous day's close)

Last updated: Thu Apr 20 2017 11:28:03

JSE all-share

52545

-0.24%

JSE Top 40

45772

-0.22%

US S&P 500

2338

-0.17%

German Dax

12016

0.13 %

Japan Nikkei

18432

0.07 %

Please note

BER MORNING BRIEFING

The SA economy, ANC succession and global disruption: The new normal of uncertainty

Date: Friday 12 May 2017
Venue: Radisson Blu Hotel, Sandton

Please click here for more details and to register for this event online.

Recent releases

Global growth appears to be on a stronger footing in early-2017. However, domestic constraints have once again come into play and appear to be preventing the SA economy from fully benefiting from improving global conditions. As a result, GDP growth is projected to remain well below 2% over the forecast horizon....Get it here

A short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Global growth appears to be on a stronger footing in early-2017. However, domestic constraints have once again come into play and appear to be preventing the SA economy from fully benefiting from improving global conditions. As a result, GDP growth is projected to remain well below 2% over the forecast horizon....Get it here

In the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section....Get it here

Comprehensive economic statistics handbook. The latest South African and international economic data is presented in tables and graphs. Sectoral trends are also displayed....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

This report outline some of the key findings of the BER’s 2017Q1 Building survey, including the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index. The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index improved for the third consecutive quarter, rising by 3 points to 43 in 2017Q1. This marks the highest confidence in more than a year. However, despite the higher confidence, building activity was broadly lower, especially for main contractors. The data for 2017Q1 is also provided....Get it here

The percentage of respondents answering “satisfied” to the question “are prevailing business conditions satisfactory or unsatisfactory?” is taken as the indicator of financial sector confidence. The Financial Services Index (FSI) reflects the unweighted average confidence of four segments of financial services, namely retail banking, investment banking, asset management and life insurance.

Theoretically, the index can vary between a maximum of 100 (which indicates that all respondents were satisfied with prevailing business conditions) and a minimum of zero (indicating that all respondents were unsatisfied). However, over the period 2002 to 2014 the index varied between 40 and 100. The long term average is 76 and could therefore be regarded as the neutral level.

For more information on how the BER conducts the Financial Services Survey, click here.

...Get it here

The percentage of respondents answering “satisfied” to the question “are prevailing business conditions satisfactory or unsatisfactory?” is taken as the indicator of financial sector confidence. The Financial Services Index (FSI) reflects the unweighted average confidence of four segments of financial services, namely retail banking, investment banking, asset management and life insurance.

Theoretically, the index can vary between a maximum of 100 (which indicates that all respondents were satisfied with prevailing business conditions) and a minimum of zero (indicating that all respondents were unsatisfied). However, over the period 2002 to 2014 the index varied between 40 and 100. The long term average is 76 and could therefore be regarded as the neutral level.

For more information on how the BER conducts the Financial Services Survey, click here.

...Get it here

The percentage of respondents answering “satisfied” to the question “are prevailing business conditions satisfactory or unsatisfactory?” is taken as the indicator of financial sector confidence. The Financial Services Index (FSI) reflects the unweighted average confidence of four segments of financial services, namely retail banking, investment banking, asset management and life insurance.

Theoretically, the index can vary between a maximum of 100 (which indicates that all respondents were satisfied with prevailing business conditions) and a minimum of zero (indicating that all respondents were unsatisfied). However, over the period 2002 to 2014 the index varied between 40 and 100. The long term average is 76 and could therefore be regarded as the neutral level.

For more information on how the BER conducts the Financial Services Survey, click here.

...Get it here

The percentage of respondents answering “satisfied” to the question “are prevailing business conditions satisfactory or unsatisfactory?” is taken as the indicator of financial sector confidence. The Financial Services Index (FSI) reflects the unweighted average confidence of four segments of financial services, namely retail banking, investment banking, asset management and life insurance.

Theoretically, the index can vary between a maximum of 100 (which indicates that all respondents were satisfied with prevailing business conditions) and a minimum of zero (indicating that all respondents were unsatisfied). However, over the period 2002 to 2014 the index varied between 40 and 100. The long term average is 76 and could therefore be regarded as the neutral level.

For more information on how the BER conducts the Financial Services Survey, click here.

...Get it here

Forecast publications

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Global growth appears to be on a stronger footing in early-2017. However, domestic constraints have once again come into play and appear to be preventing the SA economy from fully benefiting from improving global conditions. As a result, GDP growth is projected to remain well below 2% over the forecast horizon....Get it here

Global growth appears to be on a stronger footing in early-2017. However, domestic constraints have once again come into play and appear to be preventing the SA economy from fully benefiting from improving global conditions. As a result, GDP growth is projected to remain well below 2% over the forecast horizon....Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017 numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of 2010-15. ...Get it here

Our latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%) and 2017 (1.3%). Over the medium term, GDP growth is forecast to recover to an average of 2.8% between 2019 and 2021. We modelled a risk scenario of multiple credit rating downgrades that results in a significant slowdown in foreign capital inflows from the second half of 2016. This environment sees the rand weakening to an average of R21/$ in 2017Q4, before recovering from early 2018....Get it here

Snapshot

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Weekly

In the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section....Get it here

Domestic political developments overshadowed economic events last week. This started on Monday when the former Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and his deputy were recalled from an investor roadshow and culminated in a cabinet reshuffle (which saw both of them ousted from their positions) late Thursday evening. Markets immediately reacted, particularly with regards to the rand (see markets). In the domestic section, we unpack the latest producer price inflation data, the interest rate announcement on Thursday and the latest Absa Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). The key message from these is that domestic price pressures seem to be easing. Major economic data releases were rather sparse on the international front. Final GDP data for some of the larger economies were released, but these were largely unchanged from previous estimates. The focus in the international section is on China’s official PMI and US consumer data. ...Get it here

Domestically, the economic data released last week was on the positive side. High commodity prices supported exports handsomely in the final quarter of 2016, resulting in a reduction in the deficit on the current account (CA). Meanwhile, consumer inflation eased in February as annual food price inflation moderated. Internationally, the March flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the Eurozone (EZ) and US were released last Friday. Both the Eurozone and US economies are still growing, though the Eurozone is accelerating while the US is losing momentum. Meanwhile, financial markets were affected by US president Trump’s failure to convince his own party to proceed with health care reform. ...Get it here

Various gauges of domestic economic activity were published last week, most indicating that 2017 started off at a slow pace. Business confidence remained broadly pessimistic in Q1, while manufacturing production and retail sales underperformed in January. However, mining output provided a positive balance. On the international stage, a number of central banks announced policy interest rate decisions last week. As such, rates were hiked in the US and China, while in the UK the policy rate remained unchanged. Besides these, the results of the general elections in the Netherlands are discussed briefly....Get it here

It was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with the only notable release that of the 2016Q4 GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). GDP growth disappointed in Q4, coming in below market expectations. As a result, 2016 GDP growth was the worst since the 2009 recession. More details in the domestic section and on the BER website. In international news, China recorded its first trade deficit in three years, while the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged. Further afield, the US economy added 235 000 jobs in February, beating consensus and paving the way for an interest rate hike later this week....Get it here

In domestic news, the February print of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to recover following a contraction in the final months of 2016. In contrast, new vehicle sales fell back after posting a welcome rise in January. On the international front, the probability of a March interest rate hike in the US has increased following a number of positive data releases. We also unpack US President Trump’s first speech in Congress and the latest PMI data from China....Get it here