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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 22.95/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 22.3/litre  CPI February '23 = 7% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing January '23 = 12.7%  GDP growth Q3 = 4% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 10.5%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 32.7%  Retail sales January '23 = -0.8% y-o-y  Manufacturing output January '23 = -3.7% y-o-y 
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BER Comment (2023)

Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.

Real GDP largely reversed Q3 jump in 2022Q4

Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2023 4:45PM

Real GDP performed notably worse than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, declining by 1.3% q-o-q.


Special survey: Adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit

Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 3:45PM

To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their read more
To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit to buy something expensive. This comment summarises the results in PowerPoint format and also includes a link to a recording of the presentation.


Large Eskom support, some relief for households and firms

Date Uploaded: Feb 22 2023 7:00PM

As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt read more
As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt relief over the next three fiscal years, government’s borrowing requirement, overall debt and interest payments are now all projected to be higher than outlined in the October MTBPS.


SARB mandate change should be roundly dismissed

Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 11:00AM

In this comment, we outline why it is important to push back firmly against any efforts to undermine the SARB and its contribution to domestic macroeconomic stability.


In a close call, MPC pivots to a 25bps hike

Date Uploaded: Jan 26 2023 6:30PM

With a sharp deterioration in domestic real GDP growth forecasts and mixed prospects for inflation, the SARB MPC scaled down the pace of policy rate hikes to 25bps.


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