This report covers the key domestic and international data releases over the past week. The more comprehensive BER Weekly Review includes a detailed discussion of the main economic events and developments over the past week, as well as a summary of upcoming data (the week ahead). This week’s edition dives into the market-positive 2026 Budget, mounting global trade uncertainty, and the heating-up contest for control of Johannesburg. The Weekly is available to BER Essential Insights subscribers (sign up here – it’s only R210/month and you get more benefits) and BER Premium Insights clients.

DOMESTIC DATA

PPI DIPS AT THE START OF 2026

According to Stats SA, annual producer price inflation (PPI) for final manufactured goods came in at 2.2% in January, down from 2.9% recorded in the last three months of 2025. The average PPI for 2025 was 1.5%. Despite the headline PPI moving down, there is still some concentrated pipeline pressure building. Intermediate manufactured goods rose by 10.5% y-o-y, driven entirely by basic and fabricated metals (25.5% y-o-y; +11.8 percentage points).

INTERNATIONAL DATA

Nadia Matulich

US GDP WELL BELOW 3% CONSENSUS

Released last Friday, advance estimates for 2025Q4 US GDP showed a 1.4% expansion, the slowest pace since the 0.6% contraction recorded in the first quarter and a marked slowdown from 4.4% in Q3. Growth moderated primarily due to slower consumer spending, which eased from 3.5% to 2.4% (s.a.a.r), alongside contractions in exports, which fell from 9.6% to -0.9%, and government spending, which declined from 2.2% to -5.1%. By contrast, fixed investment strengthened from 0% to 3.8%, supported in particular by a 7.4% increase in investment in intellectual property products and a 3.2% rise in equipment investment.

Imports declined for a third consecutive quarter. After surging by 38% in 2025Q1, imports fell by 29.3%, 4.4% and 1.3% in subsequent quarters. The most recent decline was notably the mildest of the year, suggesting some stabilisation following the implementation of tariffs. Final GDP data is scheduled for release on 13 March.

On the sentiment front, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down to 56.6 in February from a preliminary 57.3, and was broadly unchanged from January’s 56.4. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.2 points to 91.2 in February, but remains well below the four-year high of 112.8 recorded in November 2024.

CAUTIOUS IMPROVEMENTS IN GERMANY SUPPORT THE EURO AREA

In the Eurozone, several sentiment indicators pointed to tentative stabilisation. Germany’s Q4 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3% q-o-q.

The GfK Consumer Climate indicator declined to -24.7 in January from a revised -24.2 in February. Willingness to buy improved slightly to -5.3 from -9.3 in January, but remains weak, while willingness to save edged up to 18.8 from 18.9, indicating that households are choosing to save rising incomes rather than spend them amid continued uncertainty. Economic expectations deteriorated from 6.6 to 4.3 in February, while income expectations improved from 5.1 to 6.3. Overall, the survey suggests modest economic improvement but persistent scepticism, reflecting geopolitical tensions and ongoing social policy challenges.

The Ifo Business Climate Index improved from 87.6 to 88.6, with expectations also strengthening and signalling early signs of recovery in the German economy. Manufacturing, services and construction recorded improvements, while trade weakened slightly. The outlook for the coming months improved, suggesting that although current conditions remain subdued, firms expect some near-term recovery.