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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
As South Africans head to the polls, attention turns to what the election results will mean for the future of local government, particularly in the country's economically important metropolitan areas. In the first of our LGE Quick Takes, BER political analyst Natasha Marrian examines the choices facing the ANC and DA, the potential shape of post-election coalitions and the implications for governance and reform. Throughout the election period, LGE Quick Takes will provide timely analysis of emerging results, political developments and coalition negotiations, unpacking what they mean for South Africa's political and economic outlook.
Read MoreSummary slides of the BER webinar on 30 October. Dawie Scholtz in conversation with Natasha Marrian
Ultimately, the type of coalitions which emerge to run the metros will determine political stability and the potential for local government reform until the end of the term. An upside outcome would involve the largest parties in council negotiating stable coalitions and pursuing a clear reform agenda across multiple metros over the next five-year term. A downside scenario would involve cumbersome, multi-marginal-party coalitions which allow for paralysis, extraction and little opportunity for reform – in short, a continuation of the status quo. In this note, we provide coalition scenarios and their implications.
Read MoreProfessor Samodada Fikeni argues that dysfunction in South Africa’s public service is not simply the result of poor performance, but reflects a deeply entrenched “political economy of inefficiency”. New legislation to professionalise and strengthen oversight of the public service offers an opportunity to reverse the decline, but implementation and political will will be critical.
Read MoreThe ANC’s delayed decision on its Johannesburg mayoral candidate exposes a deeper problem for the party: voter loyalty can no longer be taken for granted, while internal structures remain deeply invested in factional contests over who leads. With Joburg set to be the key battleground of the 2026 local elections, the eventual choice could shape not only the ANC’s campaign, but also its post-election coalition options.
Read MoreThe Public Investment Corporation's governance crisis enters a new phase as suspended CEO Patrick Dlamini challenges his suspension in court and government prepares to appoint an interim board. While the immediate focus is on restoring stability, the episode has reignited questions about whether the PIC's governance framework requires more fundamental reform.
Read MoreThe political window to reform the South African Police Service (SAPS) is narrow, but President Cyril Ramaphosa has been handed a rare opportunity to do so. The Madlanga Commission's revelations have exposed the depth of criminal infiltration and institutional decay within the police, creating both an urgent need and a unique opening for reform.
Read MoreThe Constitutional Court has ruled Parliament’s decision to block an impeachment inquiry into the Phala Phala report unconstitutional, reviving scrutiny over President Cyril Ramaphosa’s handling of the scandal. The judgement strengthens constitutional accountability but places Ramaphosa and the ANC under renewed political pressure.
Read MoreGrowth is back on the agenda for the Democratic Alliance (DA), as it transitioned to a new, youthful leadership core at its elective congress over the weekend, with the party’s new federal leader, Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, unequivocal about ensuring that the DA becomes the largest party in SA.
Read MoreCyril Ramaphosa’s second term as ANC president ends in December 2027. Historically, the election of the ANC president was the single most important political event watched at home and abroad to determine the country’s prospects. This comment explains the state of play in ANC succession politics and why the race for the party presidency could mark a significant shift from established practice within the party, driven by electoral concerns.
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