2020 August | BER VIRTUAL BRIEFING: Pulling the levers for growth: The role of infrastructure investment, structural reforms and energy

There is general agreement that the global economy will contract substantially in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Already in the 80th month of a business cycle downswing, the South African economy is no exception. The need for a recovery in South Africa’s GDP growth has been top of mind for a long time. It was hoped that the stabilisation of energy supply and the restructuring of Eskom would have facilitated this. Then COVID-19 struck.

National Treasury has for some time been pushing the need for structural reforms that could facilitate private sector investment and foster higher potential growth. As South Africa considers the possible levers for growth in the aftermath of the pandemic, the issues of energy availability and structural reform have an even more important role than envisaged before. In addition, a substantive infrastructure investment drive can also be a critical factor that kick-starts an economic revival. In the wake of significant fiscal constraints, it is necessary to promote private sector financed investment in the major growth-enhancing network industries. These include broadband spectrum, green energy, and water. This will require structural and regulatory reforms. A large investment in green energy will also help with the energy availability problem that is constraining South Africa’s growth prospects.

From an informal studio setting, the speakers will address the fiscal, energy, investment and reform aspects that are required to fuel a GDP recovery in South Africa.

Chair:

Prof Johann Kirsten, Director, Bureau for Economic Research

Speakers include:

Mr. Hugo Pienaar, Chief economist, BER

Dr. Duncan Pieterse, Acting DDG Economic Policy, National Treasury

Mr. Jan Oberholzer, COO, Eskom

Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Head of the Investment and Infrastructure Office, The Presidency

Clients can view a recording of the briefing by logging in to the website and navigating to the ‘Webinars’ page at ‘My Account’

2019 December | Marcoeconomic policy and inclusive growth seminar

After nearly a decade of weak economic growth, rising unemployment and a deteriorating fiscal position, South Africa’s macroeconomic policy options are constrained. Rising debt and SOE funding requirements have narrowed the scope for fiscal stimulus, while weak investor confidence and financial vulnerability limit the potential effectiveness of monetary measures. What are the possible elements, in these circumstances, of a sustainable economic recovery plan?

The BER, in consultation with National Treasury, Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) and the Association of Savings and Investment of SA (ASISA), hosted a one-day seminar on 4 December 2019 to clarify thinking and explore option for macroeconomic policy and inclusive growth. The small discussion group comprised representatives of National Treasury, the South African Reserve Bank, the Department of Trade and Industry, the financial sector, ASISA, BUSA and academia.

Summary report

Overview report

2019 August | Searching for growth: A post-election policy and macroeconomic outlook

Presentations:

• Hugo Pienaar, Chief Economist, BER || The low weak growth, low inflation economy
• Dr Ralph Mathekga, Independent Political Analyst || Mapping political uncertainty; post-election SA
• Dr Montfort Mlachila, Senior Resident Representative, IMF || Addressing growth challenges in South Africa: Is there a role for fiscal and monetary policies?
• Busani Ngcaweni, Head of Policy and Research Services, The Presidency|| Coordinating policy priorities in the 6th administration

2019 March | SARB Public Lecture: Why should central banks be independent?

The Dean of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, Prof Ingrid Woolard, and the Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Prof Johann Kirsten, hosted a public lecture on 6 March 2019 by the Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, Dr Lesetja Kganyago.

2018 May | BER MORNING BRIEFING: The macro economy, confidence and the land issue – Can the Cyril Spring endure?

Mr Hugo Pienaar, Senior economist, Bureau for Economic Research: Constrained optimism – prospects for the SA economy in a post-Zuma era.

2017 November | ERSA-BER – REDIX 3x3 Summit: A Strategy for Inclusive Growth and Economic Transformation in South Africa.

The BER joined forces with Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA), and UCT’s Research Project on Employment, Income Distribution and Inclusive Growth (REDI 3x3) in hosting a summit to discuss policy options for “Inclusive growth”. The summit brought together 75 delegates including policy makers, corporate leaders and civil society partners with the intention to introduce new voices, new insights, and new policy options into the South African economic policy debate, while connecting to the existing understanding of the drivers of growth in South Africa. It was quite fortuitous to have Prof Joseph Stiglitz in South Africa at the time of the event and he agreed to present one of the keynote addresses at the meeting. Other addresses were made by Prof. Gary Fields (Cornell via AV from Ithaca) and Prof. Ben Friedman (Harvard University via AV from Boston) - International Growth Advisory Panel.

2017 October | Cutting through the fiscal noise: initial thoughts on the mini budget

Webinar presentment by Hugo Pienaar and Harri Kemp.

2017 May | BER MORNING BRIEFING: The SA economy, ANC succession and global disruption: The new normal of uncertainty

Global political events, such as the election of Donald Trump as US president and the UK’s planned exit from the EU have resulted in increased uncertainty. Furthermore, political uncertainty in the wake of the ANC policy conference in June as well as the elective conference in December were most likely to taper down any growth prospects. In this context, the BER hosted a morning briefing with three top analysts (Hugo Pienaar, Ralph Mathekga and Peter Attard Montalto) to provide some insights and likely political and economic scenarios to assist BER clients and South African business in general to make informed decisions.