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Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants.
Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients.
The Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab is a unit at the BER, focussing on generating policy-relevant work and capacity building to achieve economic success in South Africa. This work is freely available to access on our website.
The escalation of conflict following US and Israeli strikes on Iran presents South Africa with a familiar but delicate balancing act - and markets are watching closely. While the situation remains in flux, this comment briefly unpacks the transmission channels through which the conflict could affect SA over time
Read MoreThe 2026 Budget reflects hard-won fiscal gains, with improved revenue performance, entrenched primary surpluses and a projected peak in the debt ratio. Taxpayers emerge as clear beneficiaries, but the medium-term deficit path remains sensitive to growth and market conditions. While the outlook has improved, sustained reform implementation will determine whether fiscal stability endures.
Read MoreThe City of Johannesburg is ground zero ahead of the upcoming local government election. The battle for political dominance in the country’s economic heartland will be brutal and could again culminate in messy coalitions
Read MoreDemocratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen formally announced his withdrawal from the party’s succession race during a media briefing in KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday. The move has been long in the making, with talks around Steenhuisen’s potential exit beginning toward the end of 2025. The key question is whether a refresh in the upper echelons of the DA leadership can, first, reignite support from its base and, second, attract new voters to the party.
Read MoreThe majority of the Monetary Policy Committee members of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) voted to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. While two members voted for a 25bps cut, four members voted for a hold. This means that the repo rate is unchanged at 6.75% (prime at 10.25%).
Read MoreThe last two local government elections in SA took place against a backdrop of elevated internal and external political uncertainty, a trend expected to continue into the 2026 local government election . We therefore begin the year’s client commentary with a political risk assessment by our newly appointed political analyst, Natasha Marrian, examining current political dynamics and key risks ahead of the upcoming election.
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