RMB/BER Business Confidence Index
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (History Data), 2020
Last updated: Nov 25 2020 11:06AM
After crashing to an all-time low of five at the height of the COVID-19-induced lockdown in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI increased noticeably further from 24 in the third quarter to 40 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rose in all the sectors making up
read moreAfter crashing to an all-time low of five at the height of the COVID-19-induced lockdown in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI increased noticeably further from 24 in the third quarter to 40 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rose in all the sectors making up the BCI. While the easing of lockdown restrictions in recent months has led to a resurgence in activity, the tempo of growth in 2021 and beyond remains highly uncertain.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020Q4 (Excel)
Last updated: Nov 25 2020 11:03AM
After crashing to an all-time low of five at the height of the COVID-19-induced lockdown in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI increased noticeably further from 24 in the third quarter to 40 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rose in all the sectors making up
read moreAfter crashing to an all-time low of five at the height of the COVID-19-induced lockdown in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI increased noticeably further from 24 in the third quarter to 40 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rose in all the sectors making up the BCI. While the easing of lockdown restrictions in recent months has led to a resurgence in activity, the tempo of growth in 2021 and beyond remains highly uncertain.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020Q4 (pdf)
Last updated: Nov 25 2020 11:05AM
After crashing to an all-time low of five at the height of the COVID-19-induced lockdown in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI increased noticeably further from 24 in the third quarter to 40 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rose in all the sectors making up
read moreAfter crashing to an all-time low of five at the height of the COVID-19-induced lockdown in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI increased noticeably further from 24 in the third quarter to 40 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rose in all the sectors making up the BCI. While the easing of lockdown restrictions in recent months has led to a resurgence in activity, the tempo of growth in 2021 and beyond remains highly uncertain.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020Q3 (Excel)
Last updated: Sep 9 2020 11:26AM
After falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth
read moreAfter falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth and the RMB/BER BCI, the third quarter survey results foreshadow an improvement in the third quarter relative to the second quarter.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020Q3 (pdf)
Last updated: Sep 9 2020 11:27AM
After falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth
read moreAfter falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth and the RMB/BER BCI, the third quarter survey results foreshadow an improvement in the third quarter relative to the second quarter
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020 - Quarter21 - Excel
Last updated: Jun 10 2020 11:53AM
COVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975.
read moreCOVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020 - Quarter 2 - PDF
Last updated: Jun 10 2020 11:54AM
COVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975.
read moreCOVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020 - Quarter 1 - Excel
Last updated: Mar 11 2020 11:05AM
The RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the
read moreThe RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the globe all played a role. January’s 25 basis point interest rate cut was a small positive, but not enough to compensate for the negative developments. Since the survey was completed in early March, things have gone from bad to worse on the global front. The RMB/BER BCI will in all likelihood continue to trend lower in the period ahead, with obvious negative consequences for private sector fixed investment.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2020 - Quarter 1 - PDF
Last updated: Mar 11 2020 11:06AM
The RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the
read moreThe RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the globe all played a role. January’s 25 basis point interest rate cut was a small positive, but not enough to compensate for the negative developments. Since the survey was completed in early March, things have gone from bad to worse on the global front. The RMB/BER BCI will in all likelihood continue to trend lower in the period ahead, with obvious negative consequences for private sector fixed investment.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (Sectoral and Provincial), 2019 - Quarter 4 - PDF
Last updated: Nov 28 2019 9:58AM
After dropping from 28 in the second quarter to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rose to 26 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rebounded in three of the five sectors making up the BCI namely the building, manufacturing and retail
read moreAfter dropping from 28 in the second quarter to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rose to 26 in the fourth quarter. Confidence rebounded in three of the five sectors making up the BCI namely the building, manufacturing and retail trade. It declined in the new motor trade and remained essentially unchanged in the wholesale trade sector. Though the fourth quarter rebound in the RMB/BER BCI is encouraging, some realism is necessary: the improvement was a mere five index points and was not broadly-based across sectors. Moreover, at 26, the BCI remained deep in net negative terrain, with a strong majority of respondents still expressing a sense of pessimism.