Latest forecasts
Latest forecasts_3 years_Oct '23
Date Uploaded: Oct 18 2023 6:00PM
In our latest forecast update, real GDP growth and consumer inflation in 2024 are both expected to be higher than projected before. This sees the SARB hiking the policy interest rate by a final 25bps in November and delaying the first cut to July 2024.
read moreIn our latest forecast update, real GDP growth and consumer inflation in 2024 are both expected to be higher than projected before. This sees the SARB hiking the policy interest rate by a final 25bps in November and delaying the first cut to July 2024.
Latest forecasts_6 years_Oct '23
Date Uploaded: Oct 18 2023 6:00PM
Latest forecasts_2 years_Sept '23
Date Uploaded: Sep 13 2023 4:30PM
In this interim forecast update, we adjusted real GDP growth in 2023 somewhat higher to 0.6%. The headline CPI forecast was nudged up to an average of 5.9% in 2023 to account for higher fuel costs amid a rising oil price and sustained rand weakness.
read moreIn this interim forecast update, we adjusted real GDP growth in 2023 somewhat higher to 0.6%. The headline CPI forecast was nudged up to an average of 5.9% in 2023 to account for higher fuel costs amid a rising oil price and sustained rand weakness.
Latest forecasts_2 years_Jul '23
Date Uploaded: Jul 28 2023 11:25AM
Latest forecasts_6 years_Jul '23
Date Uploaded: Jul 17 2023 2:30PM
Latest forecasts_2 years_Jun '23
Date Uploaded: Jun 8 2023 2:00PM
In this interim forecast update, we adjusted the near-term oil price lower, while the rand is notably weaker vs. major currencies than projected in the April forecast run. Along with a lower-than-expected CPI print for April, the combination of a lower oil
read moreIn this interim forecast update, we adjusted the near-term oil price lower, while the rand is notably weaker vs. major currencies than projected in the April forecast run. Along with a lower-than-expected CPI print for April, the combination of a lower oil price/weaker rand sees a largely unchanged SA inflation outlook. For now, as outlined in our 2023Q1 GDP comment, we also kept the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 (0.2%) and 2024 (1.4%) unchanged. However, the projected growth in the underlying GDP components is different. A more detailed forecast update will be done in the first half of July.
Latest forecasts_6 years_Jun '23
Date Uploaded: Jun 8 2023 2:00PM
Latest forecasts_2 years_Apr '23
Date Uploaded: Apr 21 2023 4:30AM
Latest forecasts_6 years_Apr '23
Date Uploaded: Apr 20 2023 12:15PM
Latest forecasts_3 years_Mar '23 update
Date Uploaded: Mar 14 2023 12:45PM
In this interim forecast update, the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been revised even lower, while the near-term outlook for the rand exchange rate has also deteriorated.