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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 14.59/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 13.89/litre  CPI November '20 = 3.2% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing November '20 = 3%  GDP growth Q3 = -6.1% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 7%  Unemployment rate Q3 = 30.8%  Retail sales October '20 = -1.8% y-o-y  Manufacturing output September '20 = -2.6% y-o-y 
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Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

To carry out its inflation targeting monetary policy framework, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) commissioned the BER in 2000 to conduct a quarterly inflation expectation survey among financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households.

The results of the Inflation Expectation Survey are provided in a quarterly report that is accompanied by an excel file containing the historic survey data. The inflation expectations for the current and next two years and forecast of various other economic variables (such as economic growth, the rand / dollar exchange rate and wage increases) of financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households are available separately.

Click here for information on the survey method.

Inflation Expectations – Inf_Surv_History (Excel), 2020

Last updated: Sep 17 2020 2:21PM

During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations read more
During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations are now at a new 15-year low after first achieving this feat in the second quarter.


Inflation Expectations PDF, 2020Q3

Last updated: Sep 17 2020 2:17PM

During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations read more
During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations are now at a new 15-year low after first achieving this feat in the second quarter.


Inflation Expectations PDF, 2020Q2

Last updated: Jul 23 2020 3:03PM

Average inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged read more
Average inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.8% relative to the first quarter survey. All social groups lowered their expectations for 2020. Analysts revised their forecasts for 2020 downwards by a larger margin than business people and trade union representatives. While analysts and trade unionists expect inflation in 2021 and 2022 to be at or below the midpoint of the 3% to 6% target range, business people expect inflation to be above 5%.


Inflation Expectations PDF, 2020Q1

Last updated: Mar 19 2020 2:13PM

The downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly read more
The downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly decline since the current downward trend started. All social groups have lowered their expectations for the current and the next calendar year by about 0.4% pts to below 5%.


Inflation Expectations PDF, 2019Q4

Last updated: Jan 16 2020 3:05PM

In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), read more
In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), 4.8% in 2020 (-0.2% pts) and 5.0% in 2021 (-0.1%). Average inflation expectations for 2019 have fallen by 1.5% pts over three years – from 6.0% when surveyed for the first time in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.5% currently.


Inflation Expectations - History (Excel), 2019

Last updated: Jan 16 2020 3:06PM

In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), read more
In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), 4.8% in 2020 (-0.2% pts) and 5.0% in 2021 (-0.1%). Average inflation expectations for 2019 have fallen by 1.5% pts over three years – from 6.0% when surveyed for the first time in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.5% currently.


Inflation Expectations PDF, 2019Q3

Last updated: Sep 19 2019 12:36PM

In the third quarter, analysts, business people and trade unionists on average expect inflation to pick up from 4.6% (4.8% previously) in 2019 to 5.0% (5.0%) in 2020 and 5.1% (5.2%) in 2021.


Inflation Expectations PDF, 2019Q2

Last updated: Jul 18 2019 10:41AM

In the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in read more
In the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021, down from the 5.2% and 5.3% previously.


Inflation Expectations, 2019Q1

Last updated: Apr 24 2019 10:02AM

In the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to 5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge up read more
In the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to 5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge up marginally to 5.3% in 2021. Of all the social groups, business people made the biggest downward adjustment in their expectations, namely from 5.7% to 5.1% in respect of 2019 and from 5.8% to 5.3% for 2020. Trade unions scaled their forecasts for 2019 and 2020 back by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points (% pts) and analysts by 0.5 and 0.1% pts respectively.


Inflation Expectations, 2018 - Quarter 4

Last updated: Jan 17 2019 1:35PM

In the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3% read more
In the fourth quarter of 2018, average inflation expectations declined by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) across the whole forecast horizon. Previously, analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expected inflation to pick up from 5.3% in 2018 to 5.6% in 2020. In the fourth quarter, they revised their forecast slightly downwards to 5.1% and 5.4% respectively.


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