Inflation Expectations
Inflation Expectations, 2023Q3
Date Uploaded: Sep 21 2023 12:45PM
The average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in
read moreThe average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in two years. Lower expectations were also evident over the entire forecast horizon (2023 to 2025) and mostly due to downward revisions by business people and trade unionists (by 0.6 percentage points (% pts) each for all three years). Analysts were the exception; they virtually retained their forecast of the second quarter. These revisions were done against the background where headline inflation dropped from 6.3% in May (as reported during the second quarter survey) to 4.7% in July (reported during the third quarter survey).
Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2023
Date Uploaded: Sep 11 2023 10:00AM
The average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in
read moreThe average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in two years. Lower expectations were also evident over the entire forecast horizon (2023 to 2025) and mostly due to downward revisions by business people and trade unionists,
Inflation Expectations, 2023Q2
Date Uploaded: Jul 6 2023 10:00AM
In the second quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased yet again. They revised their forecast up by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) to 6.5% in 2023 and by 0.1% pt in both 2024 and 2025, to 5.9%
read moreIn the second quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased yet again. They revised their forecast up by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) to 6.5% in 2023 and by 0.1% pt in both 2024 and 2025, to 5.9% and 5.6% respectively. This upward revision happened as annual headline consumer inflation trended down from 7% in February to 6.3% in May. Among the three social groups, analysts foresee the lowest inflation rate over all three years, while business people expect the highest rate, with trade unions not far below.
Inflation Expectations, 2023Q1
Date Uploaded: Mar 16 2023 5:30PM
In the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023
read moreIn the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024. Thereafter, the respondents expect inflation to subside to 5.5% in 2025.
Inflation Expectations, 2022Q4
Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 10:00AM
Average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%.
read moreAverage inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%.
Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2022
Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 10:00AM
Average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%.
read moreAverage inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%.
Inflation Expectations, 2022Q3
Date Uploaded: Sep 22 2022 3:00PM
During the third quarter, respondents, on average, expected inflation to accelerate to 6.5% this year and then moderate to 5.9% next year and further to 5.3% in 2024. In terms of the different social groups, analysts revised their expectations for 2023
read moreDuring the third quarter, respondents, on average, expected inflation to accelerate to 6.5% this year and then moderate to 5.9% next year and further to 5.3% in 2024. In terms of the different social groups, analysts revised their expectations for 2023 upwards by 0.5% pts, while business people and trade unionists made more modest upward adjustments of 0.2% pts and 0.1% pt respectively.
Inflation Expectations, 2022Q2
Date Uploaded: Jul 21 2022 3:00PM
The average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased by 0.9 percentage points (% pts) for 2022, by 0.6% pts for 2023 and by 0.4% pts for 2024 since the previous survey. Respondents expect inflation to accelerate to 6.0%
read moreThe average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased by 0.9 percentage points (% pts) for 2022, by 0.6% pts for 2023 and by 0.4% pts for 2024 since the previous survey. Respondents expect inflation to accelerate to 6.0% this year but then to moderate to 5.6% and 5.4% during the subsequent two years.
Inflation Expectations, 2022Q1
Date Uploaded: Mar 24 2022 3:00PM
In the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%.
read moreIn the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%. Household inflation expectations during the next 12 months bounced back from 5.2% to 5.6% in the first quarter of 2022.
Inflation Expectations, 2021Q4
Date Uploaded: Jan 27 2022 3:00PM
Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union
read moreWhereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union representatives rose by more than those of the analysts. Inflation over the next five years is projected to average 4.7% (slightly up from the 4.6% previously).