Inflation Expectations
Inflation Expectations, 2021Q3
Last updated: Sep 23 2021 12:31PM
In the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered
read moreIn the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered by small downward revisions for those of analysts and trade union representatives. The changes relative to the previous quarter are small. This could be that they merely reflect the variations that arise when samples are used to generate results.
Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2021
Last updated: Sep 23 2021 12:35PM
Inflation Expectations, 2021Q2
Last updated: Jul 22 2021 2:57PM
Inflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts
read moreInflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts respectively in the most recent survey. Respondents, on average, expect inflation to edge up from 4.2% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023.
Inflation Expectations, 2021Q1
Last updated: Mar 25 2021 12:16PM
In the first quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2021 and 2022 declined
by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2020. Inflation is forecast to average 3.9% (4.2%
read moreIn the first quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2021 and 2022 declined
by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2020. Inflation is forecast to average 3.9% (4.2% previously) in 2021
and 4.2% (4.5% previously) in 2022.
Inflation Expectations, 2020Q4
Last updated: Jan 21 2021 2:18PM
The fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation
read moreThe fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation expectations than analysts and trade union officials for all forecast periods. Average inflation expectations over the next five years ticked up from 4.5% in Q3 to 4.7% in the fourth quarter.
Inflation Expectations – Inf_Surv_History (Excel), 2020
Last updated: Jan 21 2021 2:20PM
The fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation
read moreThe fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation expectations than analysts and trade union officials for all forecast periods. Average inflation expectations over the next five years ticked up from 4.5% in Q3 to 4.7% in the fourth quarter.
Inflation Expectations PDF, 2020Q3
Last updated: Sep 17 2020 2:17PM
During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations
read moreDuring the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations are now at a new 15-year low after first achieving this feat in the second quarter.
Inflation Expectations PDF, 2020Q2
Last updated: Jul 23 2020 3:03PM
Average inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged
read moreAverage inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.8% relative to the first quarter survey.
All social groups lowered their expectations for 2020. Analysts revised their forecasts for 2020 downwards by a larger margin than business people and trade union representatives. While analysts and trade unionists expect inflation in 2021 and 2022 to be at or below the midpoint of the 3% to 6% target range, business people expect inflation to be above 5%.
Inflation Expectations PDF, 2020Q1
Last updated: Mar 19 2020 2:13PM
The downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly
read moreThe downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly decline since the current downward trend started. All social groups have lowered their expectations for the current and the next calendar year by about 0.4% pts to below 5%.
Inflation Expectations PDF, 2019Q4
Last updated: Jan 16 2020 3:05PM
In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously),
read moreIn the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), 4.8% in 2020 (-0.2% pts) and 5.0% in 2021 (-0.1%). Average inflation expectations for 2019 have fallen by 1.5% pts over three years – from 6.0% when surveyed for the first time in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.5% currently.