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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 22.95/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 22.3/litre  CPI February '23 = 7% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing January '23 = 12.7%  GDP growth Q3 = 4% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 10.5%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 32.7%  Retail sales January '23 = -0.8% y-o-y  Manufacturing output January '23 = -3.7% y-o-y 
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Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

To carry out its inflation targeting monetary policy framework, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) commissioned the BER in 2000 to conduct a quarterly inflation expectation survey among financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households.

The results of the Inflation Expectation Survey are provided in a quarterly report that is accompanied by an excel file containing the historic survey data. The inflation expectations for the current and next two years and forecast of various other economic variables (such as economic growth, the rand / dollar exchange rate and wage increases) of financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households are available separately.

Click here for information on the survey method.

Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2023

Date Uploaded: Mar 16 2023 10:00AM

In the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023 read more
In the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024. Thereafter, the respondents expect inflation to subside to 5.5% in 2025.


Inflation Expectations, 2023Q1

Date Uploaded: Mar 16 2023 5:30PM

In the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023 read more
In the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024. Thereafter, the respondents expect inflation to subside to 5.5% in 2025.


Inflation Expectations, 2022Q4

Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 10:00AM

Average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%. read more
Average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%.


Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2022

Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 10:00AM

Average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%. read more
Average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2022 edged up from 6.5% in the third quarter of 2022 to 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Expectations for 2023 rose from 5.9% to 6.1% and for 2024 it increased from 5.3% to 5.6%.


Inflation Expectations, 2022Q3

Date Uploaded: Sep 22 2022 3:00PM

During the third quarter, respondents, on average, expected inflation to accelerate to 6.5% this year and then moderate to 5.9% next year and further to 5.3% in 2024. In terms of the different social groups, analysts revised their expectations for 2023 read more
During the third quarter, respondents, on average, expected inflation to accelerate to 6.5% this year and then moderate to 5.9% next year and further to 5.3% in 2024. In terms of the different social groups, analysts revised their expectations for 2023 upwards by 0.5% pts, while business people and trade unionists made more modest upward adjustments of 0.2% pts and 0.1% pt respectively.


Inflation Expectations, 2022Q2

Date Uploaded: Jul 21 2022 3:00PM

The average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased by 0.9 percentage points (% pts) for 2022, by 0.6% pts for 2023 and by 0.4% pts for 2024 since the previous survey. Respondents expect inflation to accelerate to 6.0% read more
The average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased by 0.9 percentage points (% pts) for 2022, by 0.6% pts for 2023 and by 0.4% pts for 2024 since the previous survey. Respondents expect inflation to accelerate to 6.0% this year but then to moderate to 5.6% and 5.4% during the subsequent two years.


Inflation Expectations, 2022Q1

Date Uploaded: Mar 24 2022 3:00PM

In the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%. read more
In the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%. Household inflation expectations during the next 12 months bounced back from 5.2% to 5.6% in the first quarter of 2022.


Inflation Expectations, 2021Q4

Date Uploaded: Jan 27 2022 3:00PM

Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union read more
Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union representatives rose by more than those of the analysts. Inflation over the next five years is projected to average 4.7% (slightly up from the 4.6% previously).


Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2021

Date Uploaded: Jan 27 2022 3:30PM

Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union read more
Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union representatives rose by more than those of the analysts. Inflation over the next five years is projected to average 4.7% (slightly up from the 4.6% previously).


Inflation Expectations, 2021Q3

Date Uploaded: Sep 23 2021 3:00PM

In the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered read more
In the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered by small downward revisions for those of analysts and trade union representatives. The changes relative to the previous quarter are small. This could be that they merely reflect the variations that arise when samples are used to generate results.


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