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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 24.17/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 23.52/litre  CPI May '22 = 6.5% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing April '22 = 13.1%  GDP growth Q1 = 2.9% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 8.25%  Unemployment rate Q1 = 34.5%  Retail sales April '22 = 3.4% y-o-y  Manufacturing output April '22 = -7.8% y-o-y 
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Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations

To carry out its inflation targeting monetary policy framework, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) commissioned the BER in 2000 to conduct a quarterly inflation expectation survey among financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households.

The results of the Inflation Expectation Survey are provided in a quarterly report that is accompanied by an excel file containing the historic survey data. The inflation expectations for the current and next two years and forecast of various other economic variables (such as economic growth, the rand / dollar exchange rate and wage increases) of financial analysts, business people, trade union officials and households are available separately.

Click here for information on the survey method.

Inflation Expectations, 2022Q1

Last updated: Mar 24 2022 7:07AM

In the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%. read more
In the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%. Household inflation expectations during the next 12 months bounced back from 5.2% to 5.6% in the first quarter of 2022.


Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2022

Last updated: Mar 24 2022 9:58AM

In the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%. read more
In the first quarter of 2022, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions rose to 5.1% (4.8% previously) in 2022 and 5.0% (4.7% previously) in 2023. Average five-year inflation expectations edged up from 4.7% to 5.0%. Household inflation expectations during the next 12 months bounced back from 5.2% to 5.6% in the first quarter of 2022.


Inflation Expectations, 2021Q4

Last updated: Jan 27 2022 8:14AM

Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union read more
Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union representatives rose by more than those of the analysts. Inflation over the next five years is projected to average 4.7% (slightly up from the 4.6% previously).


Inflation Expectations (History Data), 2021

Last updated: Jan 27 2022 3:04PM

Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union read more
Whereas average inflation expectations were just below the 4.5% midpoint of the target range in the third quarter, they increased to just above it in the fourth quarter for all three forecast periods. The expectations of business people and trade union representatives rose by more than those of the analysts. Inflation over the next five years is projected to average 4.7% (slightly up from the 4.6% previously).


Inflation Expectations, 2021Q3

Last updated: Sep 23 2021 12:31PM

In the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered read more
In the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered by small downward revisions for those of analysts and trade union representatives. The changes relative to the previous quarter are small. This could be that they merely reflect the variations that arise when samples are used to generate results.


Inflation Expectations, 2021Q2

Last updated: Jul 22 2021 2:57PM

Inflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts read more
Inflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts respectively in the most recent survey. Respondents, on average, expect inflation to edge up from 4.2% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023.


Inflation Expectations, 2021Q1

Last updated: Mar 25 2021 12:16PM

In the first quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2021 and 2022 declined by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2020. Inflation is forecast to average 3.9% (4.2% read more
In the first quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2021 and 2022 declined by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2020. Inflation is forecast to average 3.9% (4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.2% (4.5% previously) in 2022.


Inflation Expectations, 2020Q4

Last updated: Jan 21 2021 2:18PM

The fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation read more
The fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation expectations than analysts and trade union officials for all forecast periods. Average inflation expectations over the next five years ticked up from 4.5% in Q3 to 4.7% in the fourth quarter.


Inflation Expectations – Inf_Surv_History (Excel), 2020

Last updated: Jan 21 2021 2:20PM

The fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation read more
The fourth quarter survey showed that headline CPI inflation is forecast to average 3.7% (3.6% previously) in 2020 and to edge up to 4.2% (also 4.2% previously) in 2021 and 4.5% (4.6% previously) in 2022. Business people continue to have higher inflation expectations than analysts and trade union officials for all forecast periods. Average inflation expectations over the next five years ticked up from 4.5% in Q3 to 4.7% in the fourth quarter.


Inflation Expectations PDF, 2020Q3

Last updated: Sep 17 2020 2:17PM

During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations read more
During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations are now at a new 15-year low after first achieving this feat in the second quarter.


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