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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 24.54/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 23.82/litre  CPI August '23 = 4.8% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing August '23 = 4.3%  GDP growth Q2 = 1.7% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 11.75%  Unemployment rate Q2 = 32.6%  Retail sales July '23 = -1.8% y-o-y  Manufacturing output July '23 = 2.3% y-o-y 
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Economic Prospects

Detailed quarterly forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 18-24 months. The focus is on current economic trends, both domestically and globally, as well as forecasts of the most important macroeconomic variables, including inflation, interest and exchange rates, GDP growth and household consumption.

Economic Prospects, 2023Q3 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Jul 28 2023 11:30AM

Despite downside risks in the second half of the year, an improved outlook for 2023Q2 and the smaller (revised) contraction in 2022Q4 lifts the level of SA real GDP, as well as the growth forecast for 2023 (to 0.4%, from 0.2% before). read more
Despite downside risks in the second half of the year, an improved outlook for 2023Q2 and the smaller (revised) contraction in 2022Q4 lifts the level of SA real GDP, as well as the growth forecast for 2023 (to 0.4%, from 0.2% before).


Prospects (executive summary), 2023Q3

Date Uploaded: Jul 17 2023 2:30PM

Despite downside risks in the second half of the year, an improved outlook for 2023Q2 and the smaller (revised) contraction in 2022Q4 lifts the level of SA real GDP, as well as the growth forecast for 2023 (to 0.4%, from 0.2% before). read more
Despite downside risks in the second half of the year, an improved outlook for 2023Q2 and the smaller (revised) contraction in 2022Q4 lifts the level of SA real GDP, as well as the growth forecast for 2023 (to 0.4%, from 0.2% before).


Economic Prospects, 2023Q2 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: May 8 2023 3:30PM

Over the past six months, the sustained stark deterioration in the outlook for Eskom load-shedding has driven a consistent downgrade to our SA real GDP growth forecast for 2023. We have now lowered this slightly further to only 0.2%. read more
Over the past six months, the sustained stark deterioration in the outlook for Eskom load-shedding has driven a consistent downgrade to our SA real GDP growth forecast for 2023. We have now lowered this slightly further to only 0.2%.


Prospects (executive summary), 2023Q2

Date Uploaded: Apr 20 2023 1:00PM

Over the past six months, the sustained stark deterioration in the outlook for Eskom load-shedding has driven a consistent downgrade to our SA real GDP growth forecast for 2023. We have now lowered this slightly further to only 0.2%. read more
Over the past six months, the sustained stark deterioration in the outlook for Eskom load-shedding has driven a consistent downgrade to our SA real GDP growth forecast for 2023. We have now lowered this slightly further to only 0.2%.


Economic Prospects, 2023Q1 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Feb 21 2023 2:00PM

Real GDP growth of well below 1% is now pencilled in for SA during 2023, with a limited recovery expected during 2024.


Prospects (executive summary), 2023Q1

Date Uploaded: Jan 31 2023 11:15AM

Real GDP growth of well below 1% is now pencilled in for SA during 2023, with a limited recovery expected during 2024.


Economic Prospects, 2022Q4 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Nov 7 2022 3:00PM

Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated read more
Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated read more


Prospects (executive summary), 2022Q4

Date Uploaded: Oct 17 2022 10:45AM

Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated read more
Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated (projected) slump in domestic export volumes.


Economic Prospects, 2022Q3 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Jul 29 2022 4:00PM

Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker read more
Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker rand exchange rate (versus the US dollar).


Prospects (executive summary), 2022Q3

Date Uploaded: Jul 15 2022 2:45PM

Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker read more
Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker rand exchange rate.


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