Economic Prospects
Last updated: Feb 10 2020 3:32PM
Besides the normal macro forecasts, this edition contains a write-up of BER scenario modelling work on the potential GDP impact of increased Eskom load shedding.
Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2020Q1
Last updated: Feb 10 2020 3:32PM
Besides the normal macro forecasts, this edition contains a write-up of BER scenario modelling work on the potential GDP impact of increased Eskom load shedding.
Economic Prospects (Executive Summary), 2020Q1
Last updated: Jan 22 2020 10:02AM
The outlook for real GDP growth has been scaled down to 0.6% (from 1%) in 2020 and 1.2% (from 1.6%) for 2021.
Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2019Q4
Last updated: Oct 18 2019 10:09AM
A short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Against a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic
read moreA short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Against a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic headwinds include constrained public sector finances, continued political and policy uncertainty, and perennially low business and consumer confidence levels. Downside risks to the outlook include a sustained negative reaction to the deterioration in SA’s fiscal ratios, and the possibility of a larger-than-expected moderation in global growth.
Economic Prospects (Executive Summary), 2019Q4
Last updated: Oct 18 2019 10:09AM
Against a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic headwinds include constrained public sector finances,
read moreAgainst a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic headwinds include constrained public sector finances, continued political and policy uncertainty, and perennially low business and consumer confidence levels. Downside risks to the outlook include a sustained negative reaction to the deterioration in SA’s fiscal ratios, and the possibility of a larger-than-expected moderation in global growth.
Last updated: Oct 18 2019 10:10AM
Against a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic headwinds include constrained public sector finances,
read moreAgainst a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic headwinds include constrained public sector finances, continued political and policy uncertainty, and perennially low business and consumer confidence levels. Downside risks to the outlook include a sustained negative reaction to the deterioration in SA’s fiscal ratios, and the possibility of a larger-than-expected moderation in global growth.
Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2019Q3
Last updated: Jul 22 2019 8:07AM
A particular feature of the latest forecast update is a further significant worsening in the country’s fiscal ratios. A main budget deficit of around 6% of GDP is expected for 2019/20. Risks are on the downside.
read moreA particular feature of the latest forecast update is a further significant worsening in the country’s fiscal ratios. A main budget deficit of around 6% of GDP is expected for 2019/20. Risks are on the downside.
Last updated: Jul 22 2019 8:09AM
A particular feature of the latest forecast update is a further significant worsening in the country’s fiscal ratios. A main budget deficit of around 6% of GDP is expected for 2019/20. Risks are on the downside.
read moreA particular feature of the latest forecast update is a further significant worsening in the country’s fiscal ratios. A main budget deficit of around 6% of GDP is expected for 2019/20. Risks are on the downside.
Economic Prospects (Executive Summary), 2019Q3
Last updated: Jul 12 2019 1:09PM
A particular feature of the latest forecast update is a further significant worsening in the country’s fiscal ratios. A main budget deficit of around 6% of GDP is expected for 2019/20. Risks are on the downside.
read moreA particular feature of the latest forecast update is a further significant worsening in the country’s fiscal ratios. A main budget deficit of around 6% of GDP is expected for 2019/20. Risks are on the downside.
Last updated: Apr 18 2019 2:51PM
Following the pedestrian real GDP growth performance of 2018, 2019 is shaping up to be another challenging year for the SA economy. Incoming data for 2019Q1 suggests that a sizeable contraction might be on the cards. Beyond the first quarter, the short-run
read moreFollowing the pedestrian real GDP growth performance of 2018, 2019 is shaping up to be another challenging year for the SA economy. Incoming data for 2019Q1 suggests that a sizeable contraction might be on the cards. Beyond the first quarter, the short-run outlook for the domestic economy is further clouded by signs of slowing global growth momentum, low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued domestic demand environment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy.