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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 21.4/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 20.75/litre  CPI December '22 = 7.2% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing December '22 = 13.5%  GDP growth Q3 = 4% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 10.5%  Unemployment rate Q3 = 32.9%  Retail sales November '22 = 0.4% y-o-y  Manufacturing output November '22 = -1.1% y-o-y 
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Economic Prospects

Detailed quarterly forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 18-24 months. The focus is on current economic trends, both domestically and globally, as well as forecasts of the most important macroeconomic variables, including inflation, interest and exchange rates, GDP growth and household consumption.

Prospects (executive summary), 2023Q1

Date Uploaded: Jan 31 2023 11:15AM

Real GDP growth of well below 1% is now pencilled in for SA during 2023, with a limited recovery expected during 2024.


Economic Prospects, 2022Q4 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Nov 7 2022 3:00PM

Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated read more
Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated read more


Prospects (executive summary), 2022Q4

Date Uploaded: Oct 17 2022 10:45AM

Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated read more
Despite multiple headwinds, SA real GDP growth of just below 2% remains possible in 2022. For 2023, the growth forecast was revised down significantly to just above 1%. This mainly reflects a further downgrade to global growth prospects and the associated (projected) slump in domestic export volumes.


Economic Prospects, 2022Q3 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Jul 29 2022 4:00PM

Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker read more
Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker rand exchange rate (versus the US dollar).


Prospects (executive summary), 2022Q3

Date Uploaded: Jul 15 2022 2:45PM

Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker read more
Given several crosscurrents, we have kept the outlook for real GDP growth in 2022 largely unchanged at 2.3%. The more notable forecast changes include materially higher headline consumer inflation, a frontloaded pace of SARB interest rate hikes, and a weaker rand exchange rate.


Economic Prospects, 2022Q2 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: May 13 2022 10:15AM

Despite several adverse recent events, the latest forecast raised the real GDP growth projection for 2022 to above 2%. The consumer inflation forecast has again been lifted, while a healthier near-term current account surplus is projected. read more
Despite several adverse recent events, the latest forecast raised the real GDP growth projection for 2022 to above 2%. The consumer inflation forecast has again been lifted, while a healthier near-term current account surplus is projected.


Prospects (executive summary), 2022Q2

Date Uploaded: Apr 25 2022 12:30PM

Despite several adverse recent events, the latest forecast raised the real GDP growth projection for 2022 to above 2%. The consumer inflation forecast has again been lifted, while a healthier near-term current account surplus is projected. read more
Despite several adverse recent events, the latest forecast raised the real GDP growth projection for 2022 to above 2%. The consumer inflation forecast has again been lifted, while a healthier near-term current account surplus is projected.


Economic Prospects, 2022Q1 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Feb 14 2022 5:45PM

The latest forecast update sees real GDP growth of just below 2% for 2022 and 2023, as well as an upward revision to the inflation and policy interest rate outlook.


Prospects (executive summary), 2022Q1

Date Uploaded: Jan 28 2022 1:30PM

The latest forecast update sees real GDP growth of just below 2% for 2022 and 2023, as well as an upward revision to the inflation and policy interest rate outlook.


Economic Prospects, 2021Q4 (Download sample)

Date Uploaded: Nov 15 2021 8:00AM

Key changes to the forecast include real GDP growth of more than 5% in 2021, an earlier start to the SARB interest rate hiking cycle, and a much-improved short-term fiscal situation.


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