Economic Prospects
Prospects (Executive summary), 2020Q4
Last updated: Oct 19 2020 10:07AM
Despite upgrades to the real GDP outlook, a difficult and protracted economic recovery remains the baseline scenario.
Last updated: Aug 19 2020 1:34PM
SA economic activity has started a tentative sequential recovery from the dramatic lockdown-induced collapse in April. However, the return to pre-COVID GDP levels is likely to lag the experience of SA’s major trading partners.
read moreSA economic activity has started a tentative sequential recovery from the dramatic lockdown-induced collapse in April. However, the return to pre-COVID GDP levels is likely to lag the experience of SA’s major trading partners.
Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2020Q3
Last updated: Aug 19 2020 2:21PM
SA economic activity has started a tentative sequential recovery from the dramatic lockdown-induced collapse in April. However, the return to pre-COVID GDP levels is likely to lag the experience of SA’s major trading partners.
read moreSA economic activity has started a tentative sequential recovery from the dramatic lockdown-induced collapse in April. However, the return to pre-COVID GDP levels is likely to lag the experience of SA’s major trading partners.
Economic Prospects (Executive Summary), 2020Q3
Last updated: Aug 1 2020 7:18AM
With a somewhat less severe Q2 decline than envisaged before, but a weak recovery pencilled in for the rest of the year, SA real GDP is forecast to contract by 8.7% during 2020.
Economic Prospects (Executive Summary), 2020Q2
Last updated: May 13 2020 5:26PM
A severe global recession, domestic non-pharmaceutical interventions and existing SA vulnerabilities make for an unpleasant combination when considering the outlook for the SA economy.
Last updated: May 13 2020 5:25PM
A severe global recession, domestic non-pharmaceutical interventions and existing SA vulnerabilities make for an unpleasant combination when considering the outlook for the SA economy.
Last updated: Feb 10 2020 3:32PM
Besides the normal macro forecasts, this edition contains a write-up of BER scenario modelling work on the potential GDP impact of increased Eskom load shedding.
Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2020Q1
Last updated: Feb 10 2020 3:32PM
Besides the normal macro forecasts, this edition contains a write-up of BER scenario modelling work on the potential GDP impact of increased Eskom load shedding.
Economic Prospects (Executive Summary), 2020Q1
Last updated: Jan 22 2020 10:02AM
The outlook for real GDP growth has been scaled down to 0.6% (from 1%) in 2020 and 1.2% (from 1.6%) for 2021.
Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2019Q4
Last updated: Oct 18 2019 10:09AM
A short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Against a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic
read moreA short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Against a backdrop of weaker global growth fundamentals and significant domestic constraints, we have made a downward revision to the short-term outlook for domestic real GDP growth. Notable domestic headwinds include constrained public sector finances, continued political and policy uncertainty, and perennially low business and consumer confidence levels. Downside risks to the outlook include a sustained negative reaction to the deterioration in SA’s fiscal ratios, and the possibility of a larger-than-expected moderation in global growth.