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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 16.32/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 15.62/litre  CPI January '21 = 3.2% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing January '21 = 3.5%  GDP growth Q4 = -0.6% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 7%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 32.5%  Retail sales December '20 = -1.3% y-o-y  Manufacturing output December '20 = 1.8% y-o-y 
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Economic Outlook

Detailed bi-annual forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 5-6 years. The focus is on the expected medium-term business cycle, while also analysing structural changes and emerging trends in the economy. The report provides detailed point estimates of key economic indicators. This includes GDP growth, consumption spending and fixed investment, inflation, interest and exchange rates. The report is exclusive to BER Macro Service clients. For more information, contact us.

Outlook, November 2020

Last updated: Nov 26 2020 1:46PM

The updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast read more
The updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast remains subdued at 1.9%.


Economic Outlook, December 2019

Last updated: Dec 10 2019 8:54AM

At a projected average of 1.3% through 2024, we remain conservative on the medium-term real GDP growth outlook for SA.


Economic Outlook, April 2019

Last updated: May 2 2019 2:35PM

A marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018. read more
A marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018.


Economic Outlook, October 2018

Last updated: Oct 26 2018 9:35AM

In April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP read more
In April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP growth outlook has been revised (slightly) lower.


Economic Outlook, April 2018

Last updated: Apr 25 2018 3:12PM

Medium-term prospects for the SA economy have improved. Mostly, this stems from notably less concern about domestic politics and the policy environment.


Economic Outlook, October 2017

Last updated: Nov 24 2017 10:06AM

Given the lack of visibility on politics and the recent negative experience, we have stuck to a conservative medium-term real GDP growth outlook of only 1.6%.


Economic Outlook, April 2017

Last updated: Apr 28 2017 2:58PM

The repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the read more
The repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the medium-term prospects for the SA economy. Indeed, notable forecast adjustments include that we now expect almost no increase in SA per capita GDP over the next six years and slippage on fiscal debt metrics.


Economic Outlook, October 2016

Last updated: Oct 24 2016 5:11PM

Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017 numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of read more
Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017 numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of 2010-15.


Economic Outlook, April 2016

Last updated: May 5 2016 11:43AM

Our latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%) read more
Our latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%) and 2017 (1.3%). Over the medium term, GDP growth is forecast to recover to an average of 2.8% between 2019 and 2021. We modelled a risk scenario of multiple credit rating downgrades that results in a significant slowdown in foreign capital inflows from the second half of 2016. This environment sees the rand weakening to an average of R21/$ in 2017Q4, before recovering from early 2018.


Economic Outlook, November 2015

Last updated: Nov 18 2015 4:27PM

The outlook for the domestic economy over the medium term is one of a somewhat improved (from the current very poor conditions), but still unsatisfactory performance. Real GDP growth is expected to increase to the 2.5% to 3% level during 2015 to 2020. read more
The outlook for the domestic economy over the medium term is one of a somewhat improved (from the current very poor conditions), but still unsatisfactory performance. Real GDP growth is expected to increase to the 2.5% to 3% level during 2015 to 2020.


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