Economic Outlook
Outlook, May 2021
Last updated: May 5 2021 9:40AM
Beyond the initial 2021, and to a lesser extent the projected 2022 bounceback in GDP, average real GDP growth of 2% is forecast between 2023-26. If achieved, this would be more than double the paltry real GDP growth rate of only 0.8% during the five years
read moreBeyond the initial 2021, and to a lesser extent the projected 2022 bounceback in GDP, average real GDP growth of 2% is forecast between 2023-26. If achieved, this would be more than double the paltry real GDP growth rate of only 0.8% during the five years (2015-19) preceding the COVID pandemic.
Outlook, November 2020
Last updated: Nov 26 2020 1:46PM
The updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast
read moreThe updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast remains subdued at 1.9%.
Economic Outlook, December 2019
Last updated: Dec 10 2019 8:54AM
At a projected average of 1.3% through 2024, we remain conservative on the medium-term real GDP growth outlook for SA.
Economic Outlook, April 2019
Last updated: May 2 2019 2:35PM
A marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018.
read moreA marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018.
Economic Outlook, October 2018
Last updated: Oct 26 2018 9:35AM
In April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP
read moreIn April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP growth outlook has been revised (slightly) lower.
Economic Outlook, April 2018
Last updated: Apr 25 2018 3:12PM
Medium-term prospects for the SA economy have improved. Mostly, this stems from notably less concern about domestic politics and the policy environment.
Economic Outlook, October 2017
Last updated: Nov 24 2017 10:06AM
Given the lack of visibility on politics and the recent negative experience, we have stuck to a conservative medium-term real GDP growth outlook of only 1.6%.
Economic Outlook, April 2017
Last updated: Apr 28 2017 2:58PM
The repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the
read moreThe repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the medium-term prospects for the SA economy. Indeed, notable forecast adjustments include that we now expect almost no increase in SA per capita GDP over the next six years and slippage on fiscal debt metrics.
Economic Outlook, October 2016
Last updated: Oct 24 2016 5:11PM
Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017
numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of
read moreOur updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017
numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of 2010-15.
Economic Outlook, April 2016
Last updated: May 5 2016 11:43AM
Our latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%)
read moreOur latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%) and 2017 (1.3%). Over the medium term, GDP growth is forecast to recover to an average of 2.8% between 2019 and 2021. We modelled a risk scenario of multiple credit rating downgrades that results in a significant slowdown in foreign capital inflows from the second half of 2016. This environment sees the rand weakening to an average of R21/$ in 2017Q4, before recovering from early 2018.