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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 22.95/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 22.3/litre  CPI February '23 = 7% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing January '23 = 12.7%  GDP growth Q3 = 4% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 10.5%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 32.7%  Retail sales January '23 = -0.8% y-o-y  Manufacturing output January '23 = -3.7% y-o-y 
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Economic Outlook

Detailed bi-annual forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 5-6 years. The focus is on the expected medium-term business cycle, while also analysing structural changes and emerging trends in the economy. The report provides detailed point estimates of key economic indicators. This includes GDP growth, consumption spending and fixed investment, inflation, interest and exchange rates. The report is exclusive to BER Macro Service clients. For more information, contact us.

Outlook, November 2022

Date Uploaded: Nov 7 2022 2:00PM

Driven by an expectation for much faster green-energy driven private sector fixed investment, SA real GDP growth of 2% is projected over the medium term (2025-27). This would be a substantial improvement on the pre-COVID (2015-2019) period. read more
Driven by an expectation for much faster green-energy driven private sector fixed investment, SA real GDP growth of 2% is projected over the medium term (2025-27). This would be a substantial improvement on the pre-COVID (2015-2019) period.


Outlook, April 2022

Date Uploaded: May 13 2022 11:00AM

Over the medium term (2024-27), SA real GDP growth is expected to average 2%. To a large extent, this view is contingent on unlocking the blockages holding back a green-energy-induced private investment spurt. read more
Over the medium term (2024-27), SA real GDP growth is expected to average 2%. To a large extent, this view is contingent on unlocking the blockages holding back a green-energy-induced private investment spurt.


Outlook, November 2021

Date Uploaded: Nov 5 2021 11:15AM

Assuming that some progress is made on private sector green energy investments, the latest forecast is for average medium-term (2023-26) real GDP growth of just below 2%.


Outlook, May 2021

Date Uploaded: May 14 2021 5:45PM

Beyond the initial 2021, and to a lesser extent the projected 2022 bounceback in GDP, average real GDP growth of 2% is forecast between 2023-26. If achieved, this would be more than double the paltry real GDP growth rate of only 0.8% during the five years read more
Beyond the initial 2021, and to a lesser extent the projected 2022 bounceback in GDP, average real GDP growth of 2% is forecast between 2023-26. If achieved, this would be more than double the paltry real GDP growth rate of only 0.8% during the five years read more


Outlook, November 2020

Date Uploaded: Nov 26 2020 2:00PM

The updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast read more
The updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast remains subdued at 1.9%.


Economic Outlook, December 2019

Date Uploaded: Dec 10 2019 9:00AM

At a projected average of 1.3% through 2024, we remain conservative on the medium-term real GDP growth outlook for SA.


Economic Outlook, April 2019

Date Uploaded: May 2 2019 2:34PM

A marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018. read more
A marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018.


Economic Outlook, October 2018

Date Uploaded: Oct 26 2018 10:00AM

In April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP read more
In April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP growth outlook has been revised (slightly) lower.


Economic Outlook, April 2018

Date Uploaded: Apr 25 2018 3:11PM

Medium-term prospects for the SA economy have improved. Mostly, this stems from notably less concern about domestic politics and the policy environment.


Economic Outlook, October 2017

Date Uploaded: Nov 24 2017 10:05AM

Given the lack of visibility on politics and the recent negative experience, we have stuck to a conservative medium-term real GDP growth outlook of only 1.6%.


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