Economic Outlook
Outlook, May 2023
Date Uploaded: May 8 2023 2:00PM
We continue to peg medium-term (2025-28) SA real GDP growth at around 2% on average. Crucially, this view relies on the realisation of a green-energy fixed investment boom and, over time, the associated easing of the debilitating power constraint.
read moreWe continue to peg medium-term (2025-28) SA real GDP growth at around 2% on average. Crucially, this view relies on the realisation of a green-energy fixed investment boom and, over time, the associated easing of the debilitating power constraint.
Outlook, November 2022
Date Uploaded: Nov 7 2022 2:00PM
Driven by an expectation for much faster green-energy driven private sector fixed investment, SA real GDP growth of 2% is projected over the medium term (2025-27). This would be a substantial improvement on the pre-COVID (2015-2019) period.
read moreDriven by an expectation for much faster green-energy driven private sector fixed investment, SA real GDP growth of 2% is projected over the medium term (2025-27). This would be a substantial improvement on the pre-COVID (2015-2019) period.
Outlook, April 2022
Date Uploaded: May 13 2022 11:00AM
Over the medium term (2024-27), SA real GDP growth is expected to average 2%. To a large extent, this view is contingent on unlocking the blockages holding back a green-energy-induced private investment spurt.
read moreOver the medium term (2024-27), SA real GDP growth is expected to average 2%. To a large extent, this view is contingent on unlocking the blockages holding back a green-energy-induced private investment spurt.
Outlook, November 2021
Date Uploaded: Nov 5 2021 11:15AM
Assuming that some progress is made on private sector green energy investments, the latest forecast is for average medium-term (2023-26) real GDP growth of just below 2%.
Outlook, May 2021
Date Uploaded: May 14 2021 5:45PM
Beyond the initial 2021, and to a lesser extent the projected 2022 bounceback in GDP, average real GDP growth of 2% is forecast between 2023-26. If achieved, this would be more than double the paltry real GDP growth rate of only 0.8% during the five years
read moreBeyond the initial 2021, and to a lesser extent the projected 2022 bounceback in GDP, average real GDP growth of 2% is forecast between 2023-26. If achieved, this would be more than double the paltry real GDP growth rate of only 0.8% during the five years read more
Outlook, November 2020
Date Uploaded: Nov 26 2020 2:00PM
The updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast
read moreThe updated baseline scenario forecast takes the first (modest) step to incorporate some elements of government’s reform agenda into the numbers. While this provides some lift to the outlook, on average, the medium-term (2023-25) real GDP growth forecast remains subdued at 1.9%.
Economic Outlook, December 2019
Date Uploaded: Dec 10 2019 9:00AM
At a projected average of 1.3% through 2024, we remain conservative on the medium-term real GDP growth outlook for SA.
Economic Outlook, April 2019
Date Uploaded: May 2 2019 2:34PM
A marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018.
read moreA marginal downscaling of the medium-term real GDP growth forecast in October 2018 has now been followed by more material revisions. Between 2019-23, real GDP growth is projected to average 0.5% lower than was expected in October 2018.
Economic Outlook, October 2018
Date Uploaded: Oct 26 2018 10:00AM
In April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP
read moreIn April, our six-year forecast assumed greater policy certainty and direction after the 2019 election. However, recent events open the door for a more prolonged period of uncertainty about the domestic policy outlook. In line with this, the medium-term GDP growth outlook has been revised (slightly) lower.
Economic Outlook, April 2018
Date Uploaded: Apr 25 2018 3:11PM
Medium-term prospects for the SA economy have improved. Mostly, this stems from notably less concern about domestic politics and the policy environment.