Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook, October 2017
Last updated: Nov 24 2017 10:06AM
Given the lack of visibility on politics and the recent negative experience, we have stuck to a conservative medium-term real GDP growth outlook of only 1.6%.
Economic Outlook, April 2017
Last updated: Apr 28 2017 2:58PM
The repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the
read moreThe repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the medium-term prospects for the SA economy. Indeed, notable forecast adjustments include that we now expect almost no increase in SA per capita GDP over the next six years and slippage on fiscal debt metrics.
Economic Outlook, October 2016
Last updated: Oct 24 2016 5:11PM
Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017
numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of
read moreOur updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017
numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of 2010-15.
Economic Outlook, April 2016
Last updated: May 5 2016 11:43AM
Our latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%)
read moreOur latest six-year forecast can be divided into two distinct periods. The short-term prospects for the economy are decidedly downbeat with global and (increasingly) domestic factors conspiring to depress growth to well below potential levels in 2016 (0.4%) and 2017 (1.3%). Over the medium term, GDP growth is forecast to recover to an average of 2.8% between 2019 and 2021. We modelled a risk scenario of multiple credit rating downgrades that results in a significant slowdown in foreign capital inflows from the second half of 2016. This environment sees the rand weakening to an average of R21/$ in 2017Q4, before recovering from early 2018.
Economic Outlook, November 2015
Last updated: Nov 18 2015 4:27PM
The outlook for the domestic economy over the
medium term is one of a somewhat improved
(from the current very poor conditions), but still
unsatisfactory performance. Real GDP growth is
expected to increase to the 2.5% to 3% level
during 2015 to 2020.
read moreThe outlook for the domestic economy over the
medium term is one of a somewhat improved
(from the current very poor conditions), but still
unsatisfactory performance. Real GDP growth is
expected to increase to the 2.5% to 3% level
during 2015 to 2020.
Economic Outlook, May 2015
Last updated: May 27 2015 2:32PM
The outlook for the South African economy over the medium term is not very inspiring, despite some improvement from 2017 onwards. Real economic growth is only projected to breach the 3% level by 2020, averaging 2.6% for the 6 years 2015 – 2020. This follows
read moreThe outlook for the South African economy over the medium term is not very inspiring, despite some improvement from 2017 onwards. Real economic growth is only projected to breach the 3% level by 2020, averaging 2.6% for the 6 years 2015 – 2020. This follows primarily from the continued restraining impact of electricity supply, low business confidence and consequently private sector fixed investment and (deficit and debt) constrained government expenditure levels. Under these conditions employment growth is likely to be quite poor, implying pedestrian growth in consumer spending.
Economic Outlook, October 2014
Last updated: Oct 30 2014 9:52AM
The outlook for the South African economy over the medium term is not very optimistic. Real economic growth is projected to average below 3% for the last 3 years of the forecast (2017 to 2019) and average 2.7% for the whole forecast period (2014 – 2019). Real
read moreThe outlook for the South African economy over the medium term is not very optimistic. Real economic growth is projected to average below 3% for the last 3 years of the forecast (2017 to 2019) and average 2.7% for the whole forecast period (2014 – 2019). Real private consumption expenditure growth at an average of 3.0% for the full forecast period and real fixed investment at 3.8% are similarly uninspiring.
Economic Outlook (Time Series Data), July 2014
Last updated: Jul 10 2014 2:06PM
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Economic Outlook, July 2014
Last updated: Jul 18 2014 11:19AM
The BER, in collaboration with a number of other South African economists, considered three alternative scenarios for the South African macro economy over the period 2014 to 2030. The baseline scenario is one of an (eventual) return to the country’s long-term
read moreThe BER, in collaboration with a number of other South African economists, considered three alternative scenarios for the South African macro economy over the period 2014 to 2030. The baseline scenario is one of an (eventual) return to the country’s long-term average real GDP growth of 3.5% between 2026 and 2030 only. During the first 5-year period (2014 – 2019) the average growth rate is only 2.6%, reflecting the current relatively poor domestic political and labour relation conditions. The low-road scenario is characterised by decidedly less favourable domestic political and labour relation conditions, especially in the first 5-year period. The net result for the full 15-year period is a real GDP growth rate of only 1.8% p.a. The high-road scenario, by contrast, is characterised by notably better political, labour relation and economic policy conditions. The sustained improvement in South Africa’s economic performance results in an average real GDP growth rate of 4.1% for the full 15-year period.
Economic Outlook, June 2013
Last updated: Jul 12 2013 9:58AM
The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch considered three alternative scenarios for the South African economy over the period 2013 to 2025. The baseline scenario provides for GDP growth to revert back to the long-term average
read moreThe Bureau for Economic Research (BER) at the University of Stellenbosch considered three alternative scenarios for the South African economy over the period 2013 to 2025. The baseline scenario provides for GDP growth to revert back to the long-term average of about 3½% between 2013/25. The low-road entails a domestic economic performance that reflects both weaker international economic conditions and a decidedly less supportive domestic political, labour and associated fiscal policy condition. The high-road scenario is characterised by both relatively improved international economic conditions and a notably better domestic political and economic policy content, resulting in substantially improved private sector confidence levels (and thus) fixed investment performance.