BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 4 December 2023
Date Uploaded: Dec 4 2023 10:15AM
Beyond the scheduled data releases, there was a lot to digest on the economic news front last week. Internationally, downward inflation surprises from the US and Eurozone spurred financial markets to expect sooner and deeper rate cuts by the major central
read moreBeyond the scheduled data releases, there was a lot to digest on the economic news front last week. Internationally, downward inflation surprises from the US and Eurozone spurred financial markets to expect sooner and deeper rate cuts by the major central banks. Meanwhile, the delayed announcement by OPEC+ members of further production cuts failed to convince the market that this would result in a tighter demand/supply balance. On the domestic front, with the exception of the Absa PMI coming in slightly better than expected, the other activity releases generally missed the consensus forecasts. Developments around Transnet and Eskom also dominated the headlines.
BER Weekly, 27 November 2023
Date Uploaded: Nov 27 2023 8:00AM
On Friday morning, Eskom announced Stage 6 load-shedding (reduced to stage 4 yesterday) after spending much of the week between Stages 2 and 4. In a media briefing, the Minister in the Presidency responsible for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said that
read moreOn Friday morning, Eskom announced Stage 6 load-shedding (reduced to stage 4 yesterday) after spending much of the week between Stages 2 and 4. In a media briefing, the Minister in the Presidency responsible for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said that the intensification of power cuts was necessary after Eskom had run through its emergency reserves. The sudden increase in load-shedding is a reminder that uncertainty regarding energy availability remains a constraint to economic activity and business sentiment. Indeed, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index for 2023Q4 showed that already more businesses were pessimistic about the prevailing business environment than in 2023Q3.
BER Weekly, 20 November 2023
Date Uploaded: Nov 20 2023 7:15AM
The big global economic story over the past week stemmed from the lower-than-expected US inflation print on Tuesday. The release solidified the markets’ view that we have reached the peak of the US rate hiking cycle. On the domestic data front, last week’s
read moreThe big global economic story over the past week stemmed from the lower-than-expected US inflation print on Tuesday. The release solidified the markets’ view that we have reached the peak of the US rate hiking cycle. On the domestic data front, last week’s internal trade data provided more clarity on the economy’s performance in Q3.
BER Weekly, 13 November 2023
Date Uploaded: Nov 14 2023 8:30AM
Last week's two domestic production data releases firmed up our view that SA economic growth slowed materially (if not stagnated) in Q3. High-frequency mining and manufacturing data both show a quarterly contraction in production relative to Q2. This is
read moreLast week's two domestic production data releases firmed up our view that SA economic growth slowed materially (if not stagnated) in Q3. High-frequency mining and manufacturing data both show a quarterly contraction in production relative to Q2. This is despite load-shedding being somewhat less intense in Q3. The international economic news headlines were still largely dominated by monetary policy developments due to several high-profile speeches by policymakers.
BER Weekly, 6 November 2023
Date Uploaded: Nov 6 2023 7:30AM
It was a bumper week on the local and international front. Domestically, the start of November brought the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) forum and a hefty petrol price decrease. In international
read moreIt was a bumper week on the local and international front. Domestically, the start of November brought the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) forum and a hefty petrol price decrease. In international news, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate pause and the continued malaise of the Eurozone economy dominated financial headlines.
BER Weekly, 30 October 2023
Date Uploaded: Oct 30 2023 7:00AM
It is a bumper week ahead on the economic data and policy front. Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unchanged policy interest rate decision last week, the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), US Fed (Wednesday), and Bank of England (Thursday) hold monetary
read moreIt is a bumper week ahead on the economic data and policy front. Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unchanged policy interest rate decision last week, the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), US Fed (Wednesday), and Bank of England (Thursday) hold monetary policy meetings this week. The domestic attention will turn to the fiscal statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday where, relative to the projections in February, a higher budget balance and debt trajectory is expected.
BER Weekly, 23 October 2023
Date Uploaded: Oct 23 2023 6:30AM
Oil and gold prices remained on the front foot last week as the war between Israel and Hamas remained top of mind. In domestic data releases, the headline CPI inflation rate for September accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y amid sharp fuel price hikes. There will be
read moreOil and gold prices remained on the front foot last week as the war between Israel and Hamas remained top of mind. In domestic data releases, the headline CPI inflation rate for September accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y amid sharp fuel price hikes. There will be more SA inflation news this week when the September PPI data is released on Thursday. Globally, the key focus is on the first estimate of US Q3 GDP growth and the ECB’s latest policy interest rate decision.
BER Weekly, 16 October 2023
Date Uploaded: Oct 16 2023 7:30AM
Global financial markets were impacted last week by the outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian military group Hamas. This pushed up oil and precious metal prices, while global bond yields took a breather after recent sharp gains. The domestic
read moreGlobal financial markets were impacted last week by the outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian military group Hamas. This pushed up oil and precious metal prices, while global bond yields took a breather after recent sharp gains. The domestic focus this week will be on the CPI inflation data for September. Sharp fuel price hikes are set to push the annual rate for headline CPI up notably towards 5.5%.
BER Weekly, 9 October 2023
Date Uploaded: Oct 9 2023 7:00AM
Domestic financial markets remained on the back foot last week, with the JSE Alsi, the SA bond market and the rand all under (further) pressure. Dramatic events over the weekend when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in
read moreDomestic financial markets remained on the back foot last week, with the JSE Alsi, the SA bond market and the rand all under (further) pressure. Dramatic events over the weekend when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in decades saw the oil price trade almost 4% higher this morning. Besides investor attention on the fallout of the weekend events, this week’s focus will be on US inflation data for September and SA industrial output for August.
BER Weekly, 2 October 2023
Date Uploaded: Oct 2 2023 7:00AM
There was a lot to digest last week, including the impact of a worsening bird flu outbreak in SA and the sudden resignation of embattled Transnet CEO Portia Derby. There was also some better news from Eskom. This week’s focus is on the first batch of SA
read moreThere was a lot to digest last week, including the impact of a worsening bird flu outbreak in SA and the sudden resignation of embattled Transnet CEO Portia Derby. There was also some better news from Eskom. This week’s focus is on the first batch of SA activity data for September, as well as US job numbers on Friday.