BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 22 May 2017
Last updated: May 22 2017 11:38AM
The domestic section focuses on the trade sector this week. Both real retail and wholesale sales improved on a monthly basis in March. Concerning the first quarter, these improvements were not enough to offset notable contractions in the first two months of
read moreThe domestic section focuses on the trade sector this week. Both real retail and wholesale sales improved on a monthly basis in March. Concerning the first quarter, these improvements were not enough to offset notable contractions in the first two months of 2017.
Internationally, the focus falls on the Eurozone (EZ) where consumer confidence edged up to its highest level in a decade. Then the focus turns to Russia, a BRICS partner of SA. Russia recently emerged from a deep recession induced by lower energy prices. Lastly, the markets section highlights the oil price which increased last week, following talks of Russia’s cooperation with OPEC to extend production cuts.
BER Weekly, 15 May 2017
Last updated: May 15 2017 12:37PM
Last week saw the release of March mining and manufacturing data. With the release of the March data, we have the first full set of real economic data for 2017Q1. In sum, it seems that a technical recession will likely be avoided. In other words, GDP growth
read moreLast week saw the release of March mining and manufacturing data. With the release of the March data, we have the first full set of real economic data for 2017Q1. In sum, it seems that a technical recession will likely be avoided. In other words, GDP growth in 2017Q1 should be positive, mainly due to a sharp recovery in mining production in March and despite the continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. On the international front, the Bank of England (BoE) kept their interest rate unchanged following their meeting last week. More importantly, the BoE made revisions to both the GDP and inflation outlook largely due to the expected impact of Brexit.
BER Weekly, 08 May 2017
Last updated: May 8 2017 11:31AM
A slew of domestic economic data was released over the past two weeks. While the trade data for 2017Q1 was encouraging, two data releases for the first month of Q2 disappointed. The high number of public holidays during April may have played a role, but the
read moreA slew of domestic economic data was released over the past two weeks. While the trade data for 2017Q1 was encouraging, two data releases for the first month of Q2 disappointed. The high number of public holidays during April may have played a role, but the soft data likely also reflects a deterioration in the economic environment after the controversial cabinet reshuffle and subsequent sovereign credit rating downgrades.
Internationally, the key focus was on the French election that took place yesterday. Early indications are that Emmanuel Macron won comfortably from anti-Europe Marine Le Pen. On the data front, the focus was on the US nonfarm payrolls for April after the US Federal Reserve opted to keep the policy interest rate unchanged earlier in the week. The data confirms that a rate hike is likely on the cards for June.
BER Weekly, 24 April 2017
Last updated: Apr 24 2017 10:13AM
The domestic economic data calendar was relatively busy last week, with key data releases from Statistics South Africa painting a mixed picture for the 2017Q1 GDP outlook. On the one hand, mining output came out much better than expected, but manufacturing
read moreThe domestic economic data calendar was relatively busy last week, with key data releases from Statistics South Africa painting a mixed picture for the 2017Q1 GDP outlook. On the one hand, mining output came out much better than expected, but manufacturing production disappointed. These releases, as well as the latest consumer inflation and retail sales data, are discussed in the domestic section. In the international section we review the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for Europe and the US as well as the 2017Q1 GDP data from China. The markets section provides an overview of the initial market reaction to French first round election results, focussing on the impact on the rand exchange rate.
BER Weekly, 10 April 2017
Last updated: Apr 10 2017 2:45PM
In the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section.
read moreIn the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section.
BER Weekly, 03 April 2017
Last updated: Apr 3 2017 12:05PM
Domestic political developments overshadowed economic events last week. This started on Monday when the former Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and his deputy were recalled from an investor roadshow and culminated in a cabinet reshuffle (which saw both of
read moreDomestic political developments overshadowed economic events last week. This started on Monday when the former Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and his deputy were recalled from an investor roadshow and culminated in a cabinet reshuffle (which saw both of them ousted from their positions) late Thursday evening. Markets immediately reacted, particularly with regards to the rand (see markets).
In the domestic section, we unpack the latest producer price inflation data, the interest rate announcement on Thursday and the latest Absa Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). The key message from these is that domestic price pressures seem to be easing.
Major economic data releases were rather sparse on the international front. Final GDP data for some of the larger economies were released, but these were largely unchanged from previous estimates. The focus in the international section is on China’s official PMI and US consumer data.
BER Weekly, 27 March 2017
Last updated: Mar 27 2017 1:47PM
Domestically, the economic data released last week was on the positive side. High commodity prices supported exports handsomely in the final quarter of 2016, resulting in a reduction in the deficit on the current account (CA). Meanwhile, consumer inflation
read moreDomestically, the economic data released last week was on the positive side. High commodity prices supported exports handsomely in the final quarter of 2016, resulting in a reduction in the deficit on the current account (CA). Meanwhile, consumer inflation eased in February as annual food price inflation moderated.
Internationally, the March flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the Eurozone (EZ) and US were released last Friday. Both the Eurozone and US economies are still growing, though the Eurozone is accelerating while the US is losing momentum. Meanwhile, financial markets were affected by US president Trump’s failure to convince his own party to proceed with health care reform.
BER Weekly, 17 March 2017
Last updated: Mar 17 2017 1:58PM
Various gauges of domestic economic activity were published last week, most indicating that 2017 started off at a slow pace. Business confidence remained broadly pessimistic in Q1, while manufacturing production and retail sales underperformed in January.
read moreVarious gauges of domestic economic activity were published last week, most indicating that 2017 started off at a slow pace. Business confidence remained broadly pessimistic in Q1, while manufacturing production and retail sales underperformed in January. However, mining output provided a positive balance.
On the international stage, a number of central banks announced policy interest rate decisions last week. As such, rates were hiked in the US and China, while in the UK the policy rate remained unchanged. Besides these, the results of the general elections in the Netherlands are discussed briefly.
BER Weekly, 13 March 2017
Last updated: Mar 13 2017 1:45PM
It was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with the only notable release that of the 2016Q4 GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). GDP growth disappointed in Q4, coming in below market expectations. As a result, 2016 GDP growth was the
read moreIt was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with the only notable release that of the 2016Q4 GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). GDP growth disappointed in Q4, coming in below market expectations. As a result, 2016 GDP growth was the worst since the 2009 recession. More details in the domestic section and on the BER website. In international news, China recorded its first trade deficit in three years, while the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged. Further afield, the US economy added 235 000 jobs in February, beating consensus and paving the way for an interest rate hike later this week.
BER Weekly, 06 March 2017
Last updated: Mar 6 2017 10:31AM
In domestic news, the February print of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to recover following a contraction in the final months of 2016. In contrast, new vehicle sales fell back after posting a welcome
read moreIn domestic news, the February print of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to recover following a contraction in the final months of 2016. In contrast, new vehicle sales fell back after posting a welcome rise in January. On the international front, the probability of a March interest rate hike in the US has increased following a number of positive data releases. We also unpack US President Trump’s first speech in Congress and the latest PMI data from China.