BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 22 October 2018
Last updated: Oct 22 2018 11:02AM
Domestic data last week was a mixed bag. While retail and wholesale trade data for August was reasonably upbeat, mining production continued to underwhelm. On the international front, the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revealed
read moreDomestic data last week was a mixed bag. While retail and wholesale trade data for August was reasonably upbeat, mining production continued to underwhelm. On the international front, the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revealed a somewhat more hawkish view on the future path of the policy interest rate while at the same time highlighting downside risks to growth. This week, the domestic focus will be squarely on the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). Clients can expect a comprehensive overview after the event.
BER Weekly, 15 October
Last updated: Oct 15 2018 11:47AM
Domestic headlines last week were focused on the resignation of Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister and the appointment of former Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni as his replacement. Along with the gyrations of the US dollar, much of the local currency’s
read moreDomestic headlines last week were focused on the resignation of Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister and the appointment of former Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni as his replacement. Along with the gyrations of the US dollar, much of the local currency’s fluctuations were tied to these developments, especially with the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) looming . Meanwhile, on the global data front, inflation pressure eased in the US in September. Both producer and consumer inflation recorded slower growth on an annual basis.
BER Weekly, 8 October
Last updated: Oct 8 2018 11:16AM
In a quiet week on the domestic data front, local financial markets took direction from US dollar strength and higher US bond yields. In the domestic section, we unpack the latest vehicle sales data. We also discuss the BER’s revised forecast for real GDP
read moreIn a quiet week on the domestic data front, local financial markets took direction from US dollar strength and higher US bond yields. In the domestic section, we unpack the latest vehicle sales data. We also discuss the BER’s revised forecast for real GDP growth for the period 2018 to 2020. The combination of weak GDP prints in 2018H1 and several other adverse developments have necessitated a significant downward revision to our outlook for 2018/19. In the international section we discuss the latest non-farm payroll report out of the US, which points to continued improvements in the labour market. We also look at the latest reading for the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for a clue regarding the stance of the global economy.
BER Weekly, 1 October
Last updated: Oct 1 2018 11:35AM
There was a raft of domestic data releases last week, including the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and Producer Price Index (PPI) and employment data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). These data releases, among others, are unpacked in the
read moreThere was a raft of domestic data releases last week, including the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and Producer Price Index (PPI) and employment data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). These data releases, among others, are unpacked in the domestic section. On the international front, we discuss the latest interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed hiked its main policy interest rate and the accompanying statement suggest that further gradual increases are likely.
BER Weekly, 21 September
Last updated: Sep 21 2018 1:20PM
Domestically, the focus was on the interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) yesterday. Concerns about the weak state of the real economy and (more importantly) the lack of demand-side pressure on inflation
read moreDomestically, the focus was on the interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) yesterday. Concerns about the weak state of the real economy and (more importantly) the lack of demand-side pressure on inflation drove the MPC to keep rates unchanged. Furthermore, inflation and inflation expectations remain relatively contained. We also discuss the stimulus plan announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa on Friday morning. The international section looks at the latest consumer inflation prints in the Eurozone (EZ) and the United Kingdom (UK). The markets section unpacks reasons why the rand strengthened over the last week.
BER Weekly, 17 September
Last updated: Sep 17 2018 10:56AM
Last week, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released key data on the health of the SA economy at the start of Q3. The data proved to be a mixed bag, with mining output disappointing while manufacturing performed much better than expected.
The international
read moreLast week, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released key data on the health of the SA economy at the start of Q3. The data proved to be a mixed bag, with mining output disappointing while manufacturing performed much better than expected.
The international section looks at industrial production figures from the US, Eurozone and UK. Furthermore, we unpack the interest rate decisions of several central banks. The most remarkable decision was Turkey’s central bank call to hike its interest rate by 625 basis points. This move was welcomed by markets and also lifted spirits towards the rand – more on this in the markets section.
BER Weekly, 10 September
Last updated: Sep 10 2018 11:22AM
Last week saw domestic financial markets remain under pressure. The rand exchange rate weakened further as Stats SA reported that the domestic economy entered a technical recession in the second quarter of 2018. Among the economic subsectors, the contraction
read moreLast week saw domestic financial markets remain under pressure. The rand exchange rate weakened further as Stats SA reported that the domestic economy entered a technical recession in the second quarter of 2018. Among the economic subsectors, the contraction was most severe in the agriculture, trade and transport sectors. Only the mining and finance sectors were able to register significant positive growth. The improvement in mining came on the back of a surge in mineral exports, contributing to a trade surplus during the second quarter, which in turn led to an improvement in the current account deficit.
Internationally, the latest trade data from China and the US points toward no relief of the ongoing ‘trade war’ between the two super powers. China’s trade surplus with the US reached an all-time high in August. Meanwhile, nonfarm payroll data released on Friday indicates a healthy US labour market, with accelerating wage increases
BER Weekly, 3 September
Last updated: Sep 3 2018 11:11AM
Economic data released last week and this morning reflects a domestic economy that is currently in a weakened state. In August, the manufacturing sector suffered a sharp decline in new sales orders, coupled with a drop in business activity, as indicated by
read moreEconomic data released last week and this morning reflects a domestic economy that is currently in a weakened state. In August, the manufacturing sector suffered a sharp decline in new sales orders, coupled with a drop in business activity, as indicated by the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Added to this, credit extension slowed down to levels on par with consumer inflation, implying no growth in real terms.
Internationally, we briefly discuss the financial crises unfolding in Argentina and Turkey. The section also unpacks data releases from the US, Eurozone and China. The markets section extends the focus to the financial implications of the troubles in Argentina and Turkey, which also impacted the currencies of South Africa (SA) and India. Besides these, local share prices were affected by a regulatory dispute with Nigeria, slashing the price of MTN
BER Weekly, 27 August 2018
Last updated: Aug 27 2018 11:01AM
A spate of flash PMI data for August was released last week which confirmed that growth in developed economies remains well supported.
The focus on the domestic side was on the July consumer inflation numbers. An acceleration to 5.1% y-o-y was recorded, in
read moreA spate of flash PMI data for August was released last week which confirmed that growth in developed economies remains well supported.
The focus on the domestic side was on the July consumer inflation numbers. An acceleration to 5.1% y-o-y was recorded, in part as a result of the rising price of petrol.
BER Weekly_20 August 2018
Last updated: Aug 20 2018 12:08PM
Global and domestic financial markets saw wild swings last week as the deteriorating situation in Turkey spilled over to other emerging market currencies, most notably the rand exchange rate.