BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 27 March 2023
Date Uploaded: Mar 27 2023 7:15AM
In a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI
read moreIn a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI inflation print and another increase in government’s salary hike offer to public sector workers. Besides the domestic developments, local (and global) financial markets continued to be heavily impacted by the news flow on the banking troubles in parts of the world. The much-anticipated US Federal Reserve policy interest rate decision, as well as an update of the Fed’s rate-setting committee’s interest rate expectations, also influenced market sentiment.
BER Weekly, 17 March 2023
Date Uploaded: Mar 17 2023 9:30AM
The collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock
read moreThe collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock and bond markets continued to experience wild swings after Switzerland’s second-largest bank Credit Suisse, which has been rocked by several scandals in recent years and was already under pressure before the collapse of SVB, suffered further losses amid contagion from the US banking concerns and an adverse auditor report. Developments over the past week also potentially upended major central banks’ monetary policy guidance and sent monetary authorities back to the drawing board.
BER Weekly, 13 March 2023
Date Uploaded: Mar 13 2023 7:30AM
There was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later
read moreThere was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later in the week when 1) Stats SA reported that real GDP contracted three times more than the market expectation in 2022Q4 and 2) amid concerns about the future growth implications of the worsening power situation and other infrastructure bottlenecks (rail and ports in particular), credit ratings agency S&P Global cut the outlook on SA’s BB- sovereign credit rating to stable from positive.
BER Weekly, 6 March 2023
Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 7:30AM
Last week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by
read moreLast week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The local data releases painted a mixed picture of activity and trade dynamics in early 2023. Globally, last week’s data releases can be broadly summarised in two themes. One theme is stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone (EZ) and the US. The other theme stems from the seemingly much quicker-than-anticipated rebound in the Chinese economy after the end of the zero-COVID policy.
BER Weekly, 27 February 2023
Date Uploaded: Feb 27 2023 7:45AM
It was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental
read moreIt was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental body that sets international standards aimed at preventing global money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) activities, added SA to a list of countries under increased monitoring for failing to meet certain standards in combating ML/TF.
BER Weekly, 20 February 2023
Date Uploaded: Feb 20 2023 10:15AM
The key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the
read moreThe key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the upside, markets pushed up their expectations of the terminal policy interest rate. Expectations of a higher terminal rate led to a stronger dollar, which filtered through to commodity markets and affected investor appetite for riskier SA assets.
BER Weekly, 13 February 2023
Date Uploaded: Feb 13 2023 7:30AM
In a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA
read moreIn a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA financial markets about the worsening power crisis.
BER Weekly, 6 February 2023
Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 7:30AM
Global financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global
read moreGlobal financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global stock markets rose through most of the week as traders/investors had a dovish interpretation of the guidance on the interest rate trajectory. On the local front, the first data releases for January came out last week, including the Absa PMI and naamsa new vehicle sales figures.
BER Weekly, 30 January 2023
Date Uploaded: Jan 30 2023 7:45AM
The ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP
read moreThe ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP growth forecast for the next three years.
BER Weekly, 23 January 2023
Date Uploaded: Jan 23 2023 7:45AM
Last week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did
read moreLast week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did better than expected in November and the internal trade sector as a whole may add positively to Q4 GDP growth. There were also two key inflation-related releases last week.