BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 13 August 2018
Last updated: Aug 13 2018 10:36AM
It was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with only manufacturing production for June released. However, there were significant moves on domestic financial markets in the holiday-shortened week, with the rand exchange rate under significant pressure.
read moreIt was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with only manufacturing production for June released. However, there were significant moves on domestic financial markets in the holiday-shortened week, with the rand exchange rate under significant pressure. Increased geopolitical tension and a general risk-off trading environment weighed on emerging market assets, including the rand and Turkish lira, over the week. More on this in the markets section. In other news, on Friday National Treasury released the report of the committee tasked to review the basket of goods excluded from Value Added Tax (VAT). The main recommendations are outlined in the current affairs section. On the international front, overall economic activity picked up in Japan and the UK in 2018Q2 as reflected in the latest GDP prints. China’s trade surplus with the US shrank marginally in July but will likely not be enough to alleviate US-China tensions. In fact, President Donald Trump announced new tariffs to be implemented later in August with his Chinese counterpart vowing to follow suit. Finally, US core inflation accelerated, fuelling expectations for a rate hike in September.
BER Weekly, 6 August 2018
Last updated: Aug 6 2018 11:05AM
A mixed bag of data releases on the domestic front last week indicate that domestic economic activity remains under pressure. On the positive side, the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up to above the neutral 50-point mark in July, while strong
read moreA mixed bag of data releases on the domestic front last week indicate that domestic economic activity remains under pressure. On the positive side, the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up to above the neutral 50-point mark in July, while strong export growth in June led to an improvement in the overall external trade balance. On the other hand, vehicle exports struggled in July, while the unemployment rate increased in 2018Q2 on the back of lacklustre employment growth. In international news, we focus on the latest round of monetary policy decisions from the developed world, activity indicators from China and the Eurozone, as well labour market data out of the US.
BER Weekly, 30 July 2018
Last updated: Jul 30 2018 10:42AM
The domestic economic data calendar was very light last week, with the only notable release being producer inflation for June. This morning, we saw the release of credit growth statistics for June. On domestic financial markets, the rand exchange rate was
read moreThe domestic economic data calendar was very light last week, with the only notable release being producer inflation for June. This morning, we saw the release of credit growth statistics for June. On domestic financial markets, the rand exchange rate was supported by the announcement that China plans to invest almost $15bn in the SA economy, while Eskom secured a R33bn loan from China’s Development Bank.
In the international section, we have a look at the US GDP figure for Q2. As expected, growth accelerated notably from Q1. The section further unpacks the latest flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) releases for the US and the Eurozone.
BER Weekly, 23 July 2018
Last updated: Jul 23 2018 10:45AM
Locally, the focus was on the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy interest rate decision. As expected, the SARB kept the rate unchanged, but the overall tone of the statement was fairly hawkish. In addition, we unpack the latest retail and wholesale
read moreLocally, the focus was on the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy interest rate decision. As expected, the SARB kept the rate unchanged, but the overall tone of the statement was fairly hawkish. In addition, we unpack the latest retail and wholesale trade data as well as the June inflation print.
On the international front, the focus is also on inflation figures from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. The section further summarises the latest industrial production and retail sales data from the US, which both point to a strong Q2 GDP print.
BER Weekly, 16 July 2016
Last updated: Jul 16 2018 11:09AM
In domestic news, both mining and manufacturing output rebounded in May after posting weak growth in April. However, mining output is still set to contract in 2018Q2, while only a slight rebound is on the cards for manufacturing production as output growth
read moreIn domestic news, both mining and manufacturing output rebounded in May after posting weak growth in April. However, mining output is still set to contract in 2018Q2, while only a slight rebound is on the cards for manufacturing production as output growth remains lacklustre. Furthermore, the near-term outlook for the mining sector is clouded by the possibility of labour unrest following the commencement of wage negotiations in the gold sector. On the international front, US consumer price inflation rose to a six-year high in June, suggesting further interest rates hikes remain firmly on the cards. Across the pacific, China’s trade surplus with the US rose to a record-high in June which could provide further ammunition for President Trump in the ongoing trade dispute.
BER Weekly, 9 July 2018
Last updated: Jul 9 2018 12:36PM
On the domestic front, economic news was a mixed bag last week. On the upside, domestic vehicle sales continued to grow, especially in the case of heavy vehicles such as trucks and buses. On the downside, electricity output remained under pressure.
On the
read moreOn the domestic front, economic news was a mixed bag last week. On the upside, domestic vehicle sales continued to grow, especially in the case of heavy vehicles such as trucks and buses. On the downside, electricity output remained under pressure.
On the international scene, nonfarm payroll data indicates that the US economy is still creating new jobs at a steady rate. Meanwhile, June Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the US and China reflect a vibrant economy in the US during the second quarter, and ‘business as usual’ in China. Furthermore, the IMF scaled down its outlook for the German economy.
On financial markets the US dollar lost some ground after Chinese officials said they will not use the yuan as a trade-policy weapon, benefiting emerging market (EM) currencies to some extent.
BER Weekly_2 July
Last updated: Jul 3 2018 10:15AM
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BER Weekly_25 June 2018
Last updated: Jun 25 2018 11:01AM
The rand hit a 7-month low against the US dollar last week as emerging market assets continued to suffer.
BER Weekly_18 June 2018
Last updated: Jun 18 2018 12:00PM
A raft of domestic data released last week suggested that, after a poor first quarter, the SA economy remained under pressure at the start of 2018Q2.
BER Weekly, 11 June 2018
Last updated: Jun 11 2018 10:39AM
Over the weekend, welcome news broke that the majority of public sector trade unions had signed a multi-year wage deal with the government. Unfortunately, the costs are significantly more than budgeted for by National Treasury in the February Budget. This
read moreOver the weekend, welcome news broke that the majority of public sector trade unions had signed a multi-year wage deal with the government. Unfortunately, the costs are significantly more than budgeted for by National Treasury in the February Budget. This means that the government is faced with some tough choices. The fact that GDP growth disappointed in Q1 and suggests that full-year growth could be lower than forecast by Treasury further complicates matters. This, as well as the latest manufacturing output data, is unpacked in the domestic section.
On the international data front, the major releases focussed on trade and the outcomes were essentially fuel on the fire of the trade-war rhetoric coming from the US. The big US trade deficit remains one of US President Donald Trump’s pet peeves. Trump made this clear again on a Twitter rant in the wake of the weekend’s G7 meeting in Canada.