BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 11 February 2019
Last updated: Feb 11 2019 9:39AM
The domestic data calendar was rather light last week with electricity production for December 2018 the only notable release. In the absence of any significant data releases, attention was focused on the State of the Nation Address (SONA) and the
read moreThe domestic data calendar was rather light last week with electricity production for December 2018 the only notable release. In the absence of any significant data releases, attention was focused on the State of the Nation Address (SONA) and the announcements made regarding Eskom and the formation of a new investigating directorate. In the international section, we discuss the latest interest rate decisions from both the developed and developing world, as well as trade statistics out of the US.
BER Weekly, 4 February 2019
Last updated: Feb 4 2019 10:41AM
Last week, financial headlines were dominated by a more dovish-than-expected monetary policy statement of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US. The dollar lost some ground against other key currencies, including the rand, after the statement lacked the usual
read moreLast week, financial headlines were dominated by a more dovish-than-expected monetary policy statement of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US. The dollar lost some ground against other key currencies, including the rand, after the statement lacked the usual prediction of future rate hikes.
Domestically, there were a number of data releases. Although the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was slightly down in January, it was still virtually at the neutral-50 mark and above the average for last year. Besides the PMI, a welcome trade surplus was recorded in December, though it was not on the back of more exports. We also take a brief look at the latest vehicle sales, private credit extension and producer inflation numbers.
In terms of the main global data releases, a slowdown in global growth was confirmed by lower GDP growth numbers in the Eurozone and a drop in the Chinese PMI.
BER Weekly, 28 January 2019
Last updated: Jan 28 2019 11:36AM
Domestically, data released last week revealed that consumer confidence remained in positive territory in the final quarter of last year, though it was down from the Ramaphoria-high during the first half of 2018. The Q4 figure suggests that consumers’
read moreDomestically, data released last week revealed that consumer confidence remained in positive territory in the final quarter of last year, though it was down from the Ramaphoria-high during the first half of 2018. The Q4 figure suggests that consumers’ willingness to spend is still relatively high. Meanwhile, consumer inflation moderated significantly in December 2018 on the back of a huge drop in fuel prices.
Internationally, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held their key policy interest rates steady at current levels. Meanwhile, flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers for January indicated a sustained slowdown in the Eurozone economy, while the US economy retained momentum. In financial markets, the US dollar was somewhat weaker as the trade talks between the US and China made little progress to date
BER Weekly, 21 January
Last updated: Jan 21 2019 11:01AM
Domestically, markets were focused on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week. On the global front, the news flow was dominated by British political chaos associated with the Brexit debacle. Besides a
read moreDomestically, markets were focused on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week. On the global front, the news flow was dominated by British political chaos associated with the Brexit debacle. Besides a brief overview of the MPC decision, the domestic section looks at the latest retail sales data, which surprised on the upside. In contrast, mining data disappointed.
The international section discusses a slew of data from China, the US and the Eurozone. The section also briefly refers to the outcome of the Brexit vote in the UK parliament.
BER Weekly, 14 January
Last updated: Jan 14 2019 9:59AM
Domestic data released during the first full week of 2019 presented a mixed bag. Manufacturing data, both survey and official statistics, suggest that the factory sector ended 2018 on a positive note. However, new vehicle sales data for December confirmed
read moreDomestic data released during the first full week of 2019 presented a mixed bag. Manufacturing data, both survey and official statistics, suggest that the factory sector ended 2018 on a positive note. However, new vehicle sales data for December confirmed that overall sales declined in 2018 compared to 2017.
International news headlines were mostly focused on political developments, including the continued government shutdown in the US, trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as Brexit developments (or the lack thereof). On the economic front, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy.
BER Weekly, 14 December
Last updated: Dec 14 2018 11:22AM
A barrage of domestic data was released this week, most of which point to a relatively solid start for the economy in 2018Q4 – following the better-than-expected Q3 GDP print. Besides the data releases, it is worth highlighting that President Ramaphosa
read moreA barrage of domestic data was released this week, most of which point to a relatively solid start for the economy in 2018Q4 – following the better-than-expected Q3 GDP print. Besides the data releases, it is worth highlighting that President Ramaphosa suggested in a radio interview on Thursday that the government was unlikely to provide Eskom with substantial additional financial assistance. How the government deals with Eskom is likely to be a key factor that influences the domestic economic outlook in 2019, and beyond. Internationally the focus is mainly on the outcome of the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) at which it was decided to formally end the bank’s bond-buying programme. This at a time when the region faces multiple headwinds, most of which pose a downside risk to the economic growth outlook.
BER Weekly, 10 December
Last updated: Dec 10 2018 10:56AM
Dominating the domestic headlines last week was the news that South Africa exited a technical recession in 2018Q3. While this was widely expected, the pace of GDP growth surprised on the upside. More on this in the domestic section. After the release of some
read moreDominating the domestic headlines last week was the news that South Africa exited a technical recession in 2018Q3. While this was widely expected, the pace of GDP growth surprised on the upside. More on this in the domestic section. After the release of some survey data for the fourth quarter (see domestic section for details), a spate of actual activity data releases this week will provide further guidance on how GDP growth performed in 2018Q4.
On the international front, US employment data rose by less than expected in November while the international trade balance data for October recorded the biggest deficit in ten years. This, as well as PMI data from China, is discussed here.
BER Weekly, 3 December
Last updated: Dec 3 2018 11:28AM
In the domestic section we unpack the latest BER consumer and business confidence numbers. The latest reading for the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and producer price inflation figures for October are also discussed. On the international front, PMI
read moreIn the domestic section we unpack the latest BER consumer and business confidence numbers. The latest reading for the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and producer price inflation figures for October are also discussed. On the international front, PMI data confirms that Chinese growth continues to slow, while comments by US Federal Reserve officials point toward a possibly more dovish interest rate stance for the US central bank.
BER Weekly, 26 November
Last updated: Nov 26 2018 10:04AM
On the domestic front, the main focus was on the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) monetary policy decision last week. The SARB decided to hike the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) after a rigorous debate. The decision mainly hinged on sustained
read moreOn the domestic front, the main focus was on the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) monetary policy decision last week. The SARB decided to hike the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) after a rigorous debate. The decision mainly hinged on sustained higher inflation going forward (with further upside risks) and the bank hoping to prevent more aggressive rate hikes in the future by acting now. On a positive note, the Brent crude oil price continued its steady decline last week, which means local consumers may see some relief on the petrol price front next month – see the markets section.
In the international section, we unpack the latest flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the Eurozone and the US. The PMI suggests that growth is continuing to trend lower in the Eurozone, but remains solid in the US. The section also briefly refers to the Brexit deal endorsed by the European Union (EU) over the weekend.
BER Weekly, 19 November
Last updated: Nov 19 2018 11:21AM
In market news, the rand exchange rate took the Constitutional Review Committee’s decision to propose an amendment to Section 25 of the Constitution to allow expropriation without compensation (EWC) in its stride. Globally, the focus was on the chaotic Brexit
read moreIn market news, the rand exchange rate took the Constitutional Review Committee’s decision to propose an amendment to Section 25 of the Constitution to allow expropriation without compensation (EWC) in its stride. Globally, the focus was on the chaotic Brexit negotiations. On the data front, we unpack the latest retail, wholesale and motor trade data in the domestic section. Sales came in stronger than expected across most categories. Combined with an expected improvement in agricultural output and the rebound in manufacturing output, this should help lift the economy out of recession in Q3. In the international section we discuss the latest GDP data out of Germany and Japan, along with inflation data from the US and the UK.