BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 28 November 2022
Date Uploaded: Nov 28 2022 7:30AM
The domestic focus last week was on the release of the October consumer inflation data, as well as the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) latest policy interest rate decision. Another notable local development was that PetroSA provided a temporary diesel lifeline to
read moreThe domestic focus last week was on the release of the October consumer inflation data, as well as the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) latest policy interest rate decision. Another notable local development was that PetroSA provided a temporary diesel lifeline to Eskom, enabling the return to service of the utility’s open cycle gas turbines. On the global front, attention was focused on the minutes from the US central bank’s (Fed) November interest rate meeting and rising protests against renewed mobility restrictions in China amid record COVID-19 infections.
BER Weekly, 21 November 2022
Date Uploaded: Nov 21 2022 8:00AM
The September domestic data releases were a mixed bag. While retail sales missed expectations and contracted on a quarterly basis, wholesale trade performed. Indeed, following the previous week’s better-than-expected mining and manufacturing data for
read moreThe September domestic data releases were a mixed bag. While retail sales missed expectations and contracted on a quarterly basis, wholesale trade performed. Indeed, following the previous week’s better-than-expected mining and manufacturing data for September, on balance, it now seems even less likely that Q3 real GDP will contract (on a q-o-q basis). That said, the ground lost with the Q2 GDP decline is unlikely to be recovered in Q3. In addition, the GDP growth prospects for 2023 which have already been downgraded amid a weakening global growth outlook, soured further after Eskom’s System Status and Outlook Briefing released mid-week painted a gloomy picture of continued power rationing.
BER Weekly, 14 November 2022
Date Uploaded: Nov 14 2022 9:00AM
The key theme of the past week stemmed from the below-consensus US consumer inflation print for October. While inflation remains elevated, the downward surprise could encourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to start slowing its pace of interest rate hikes
read moreThe key theme of the past week stemmed from the below-consensus US consumer inflation print for October. While inflation remains elevated, the downward surprise could encourage the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to start slowing its pace of interest rate hikes going forward. To be sure, further hikes are expected, but the mere possibility of a moderation in the pace in December led to significant market movements. In addition to speculation about an impending ‘Fed pivot’, markets were hopeful that China may finally move away from its economy-crushing zero-COVID strategy. On the local front, Stats SA released stronger-than-anticipated production data for September.
BER Weekly, 7 November 2022
Date Uploaded: Nov 7 2022 7:45AM
It was another eventful week on the global monetary policy front as central banks in the UK and US both hiked their policy interest rates by 75bps. While these decisions were in line with expectations, what was signalled about the way forward was more
read moreIt was another eventful week on the global monetary policy front as central banks in the UK and US both hiked their policy interest rates by 75bps. While these decisions were in line with expectations, what was signalled about the way forward was more unexpected and drove financial market movements during the week. Financial markets also clung to rumours that China may start to exit its damaging zero COVID-policy early next year. On the local front, the key data releases were the PMI figures for October.
BER Weekly, 31 October 2022
Date Uploaded: Oct 31 2022 7:30AM
There was a lot to digest last week, starting with concern that the newly ‘elected’ Chinese Communist Party leadership will continue to push economic security and stricter private sector regulations instead of pro-growth policies. Later in the week, the
read moreThere was a lot to digest last week, starting with concern that the newly ‘elected’ Chinese Communist Party leadership will continue to push economic security and stricter private sector regulations instead of pro-growth policies. Later in the week, the global focus turned to several key central bank meetings. The major focus local last week was on the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).
BER Weekly, 24 October 2022
Date Uploaded: Oct 24 2022 8:00AM
The end of the damaging Transnet strike was the major domestic development last week, with the economic fallout set to continue. The tabling of the MTBPS on Wednesday will be the key event in the upcoming week.
read moreThe end of the damaging Transnet strike was the major domestic development last week, with the economic fallout set to continue. The tabling of the MTBPS on Wednesday will be the key event in the upcoming week.
BER Weekly, 17 October 2022
Date Uploaded: Oct 17 2022 8:00AM
The economic impact of the ongoing strike by Transnet workers, which is now in its twelfth day, continued to raise concerns last week. Globally, another higher-than-expected US inflation print and the financial market/political turmoil in the UK dominated
read moreThe economic impact of the ongoing strike by Transnet workers, which is now in its twelfth day, continued to raise concerns last week. Globally, another higher-than-expected US inflation print and the financial market/political turmoil in the UK dominated headlines.
BER Weekly, 10 October 2022
Date Uploaded: Oct 10 2022 7:30AM
The key global economic data release of the week was the US jobs data released on Friday. Despite a further slowdown in job gains, sustained high wage growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate led traders to push up the likelihood of another 75 basis
read moreThe key global economic data release of the week was the US jobs data released on Friday. Despite a further slowdown in job gains, sustained high wage growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate led traders to push up the likelihood of another 75 basis points (bps) policy interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in early November. On the local front, the key releases came early in the week, i.e., the Absa manufacturing PMI and naamsa new vehicle sales for September. There were also some important non-data events over the past week that can impact SA’s prospects over the near term – especially regarding external trade dynamics.
BER Weekly, 3 October 2022
Date Uploaded: Oct 3 2022 7:30AM
There was lots to digest last week, with global news headlines covering the extreme volatility of UK financial markets, energy-related developments in Europe amid suspected sabotage of a key gas pipeline, the ‘annexation’ of parts of Ukraine by Russia and the
read moreThere was lots to digest last week, with global news headlines covering the extreme volatility of UK financial markets, energy-related developments in Europe amid suspected sabotage of a key gas pipeline, the ‘annexation’ of parts of Ukraine by Russia and the devastation left in the wake of hurricane Ian in the US. Against this tumultuous global backdrop, local developments did little to support sentiment towards SA.
BER Weekly, 26 September 2022
Date Uploaded: Sep 26 2022 7:30AM
It was another week packed with dramatic developments on the global economic and political front. Domestically, the focus was on one of the worst weeks of load-shedding on record, the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) latest policy interest rate decision, and the
read moreIt was another week packed with dramatic developments on the global economic and political front. Domestically, the focus was on one of the worst weeks of load-shedding on record, the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) latest policy interest rate decision, and the sustained weakening of the rand exchange rand (versus the US dollar).