BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 16 April 2018
Last updated: Apr 16 2018 10:57AM
Global geo-political concerns continued to dominate the news flow last week. Whereas the concerns about a trade war between the US and China eased after conciliatory remarks by the Chinese President, the situation in Syria continues to damage relations
read moreGlobal geo-political concerns continued to dominate the news flow last week. Whereas the concerns about a trade war between the US and China eased after conciliatory remarks by the Chinese President, the situation in Syria continues to damage relations between the US and Russia. On the domestic front, manufacturing and mining data for February suggest that the contribution of these sectors to overall GDP growth in 2018Q1 will be limited, if not negative. This adds to the likelihood that quarterly GDP growth will slow significantly relative to the robust 2017Q4 print. Meanwhile, on the international front, higher US headline CPI in March confirmed the view of monetary authorities at the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that underlying price pressure is building.
BER Weekly, 9 April 2018
Last updated: Apr 9 2018 12:06PM
International news headlines were dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China last week. This also had a bearing on domestic financial markets. More on this in the markets section.The focus of the domestic section is on the Absa Purchasing
read moreInternational news headlines were dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China last week. This also had a bearing on domestic financial markets. More on this in the markets section.The focus of the domestic section is on the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March. The PMI suggests that the manufacturing sector may have come under renewed pressure as slower export growth weighed on overall demand. Furthermore, other data showed that domestic new vehicles sales ticked up slightly in March, but that vehicle exports declined for a second month. In the international section, we unpack the latest PMI figures from the US, China and the Eurozone as well as the latest US job numbers (the nonfarm payroll report). The nonfarm payrolls disappointed and significantly undershot the consensus forecast.
BER Weekly, 26 March 2018
Last updated: Mar 26 2018 8:04AM
Global and domestic financial markets had a lot to digest last week. The US central bank’s latest policy interest rate hike, as well as the guidance of future monetary tightening, dominated international headlines. Furthermore, the narrative surrounding the
read moreGlobal and domestic financial markets had a lot to digest last week. The US central bank’s latest policy interest rate hike, as well as the guidance of future monetary tightening, dominated international headlines. Furthermore, the narrative surrounding the threat of global trade wars intensified after the US announced broadbased measures to curb imports from China. While these events had an impact on SA financial markets, local attention was more focused on Moody’s credit rating decision.
BER Weekly, 19 March 2018
Last updated: Mar 19 2018 12:03PM
Domestic economic data released last week was broadly upbeat. Manufacturing and mining output figures for January showed that annual growth in these sectors edged higher. In addition, business confidence in 2018Q1 registered its best level since the beginning
read moreDomestic economic data released last week was broadly upbeat. Manufacturing and mining output figures for January showed that annual growth in these sectors edged higher. In addition, business confidence in 2018Q1 registered its best level since the beginning of 2015. On the international front, data from the US revealed continued soft retail sales growth in February. In addition, markets will this week keep a keen eye on the FOMC announcement as well as Moody’s decision regarding SA’s sovereign debt rating.
BER Weekly, 12 March 2018
Last updated: Mar 12 2018 10:58AM
In the domestic section, the focus is on the latest GDP growth data. Not only did the 2017Q4 figure surprise on the upside, but major data revisions to the historic data series meant that 2016’s growth rate was also revised higher. The revisions resulted in
read moreIn the domestic section, the focus is on the latest GDP growth data. Not only did the 2017Q4 figure surprise on the upside, but major data revisions to the historic data series meant that 2016’s growth rate was also revised higher. The revisions resulted in significant changes in the composition of GDP growth over the past few years, which could have important implications for the growth pattern going forward.
In the international section, the latest US job figures as well as US and Chinese trade data are unpacked. The stark difference between the US and China’s trade balances is one of the key reasons for President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on trade protectionism. US job figures were robust, although wage growth slowed. This boosted global stock markets – more on this in the markets section.
BER Weekly, 5 March 2018
Last updated: Mar 5 2018 10:22AM
Domestic data released last week was somewhat of a mixed bag. On the one hand, SA’s trade deficit ballooned to its worst level on record in January, while vehicle export data for February also remained depressed. However, on the positive side, the Absa
read moreDomestic data released last week was somewhat of a mixed bag. On the one hand, SA’s trade deficit ballooned to its worst level on record in January, while vehicle export data for February also remained depressed. However, on the positive side, the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) managed to edge above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since May 2017. These releases, as well as factory-gate inflation figures, are discussed in the domestic section.
In the international section we also look at inflation figures, but from the consumer side. Furthermore, the section unpacks US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s first statement to congress and PMI data from China.
BER Weekly, 26 February 2018
Last updated: Feb 26 2018 10:01AM
The National Budget dominated domestic economic headlines last week. This is both because of the revenue and expenditure details, as well as indications that (along with other economic and political factors) the Budget did enough to stave off a Moody’s
read moreThe National Budget dominated domestic economic headlines last week. This is both because of the revenue and expenditure details, as well as indications that (along with other economic and political factors) the Budget did enough to stave off a Moody’s ratings downgrade next month. More detail on this and the latest (January) consumer inflation print here.
Internationally, according to the most recent preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for February, global growth is expected to have remained well supported so far in 2018Q1. These, along with global inflation releases, are discussed here.
BER Weekly, 19 February 2018
Last updated: Feb 19 2018 12:09PM
It was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s
read moreIt was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s ascension to the position of ANC president last December. In this edition of the weekly review, the focus is on the domestic labour market on the back of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) – which revealed a drop in the unemployment rate – as well as wholesale and retail trade sales data. This, along with a brief discussion of some of the highlights of President Ramaphosa’s first SONA. On the international front, inflation in both the US and UK was somewhat higher-than-expected in January. For the US, sustained above-consensus inflation prints will add further fuel to the argument that the policy interest rate may be raised by more than previously expected.
BER Weekly, 12 February 2018
Last updated: Feb 12 2018 11:23AM
Notable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output
read moreNotable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output expanded at a faster pace, mining output growth moderated. The latest figures point to a positive contribution from the manufacturing sector to 2017Q4 GDP growth, while mining likely weighed on overall growth. For 2017 as a whole, mining output picked up while manufacturing output declined slightly.
In international news, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged. However, officials did hint at the possibility of renewed tightening on the back of stronger global and UK growth, as well as rising inflation expectations. In China, the January Caixin Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) pointed toward a strong start to 2018 following the slightly faster-than-expected expansion in overall economic activity during 2017.
BER Weekly, 05 Feburary 2018
Last updated: Feb 5 2018 11:20AM
In the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in
read moreIn the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in domestic economic activity, there are signs that conditions could improve meaningfully as we head deeper into 2018. In the international section, we discuss the latest labour market data from the US, GDP data from the Eurozone and PMI data from China. In all, these releases point to a continued strengthening in the global economy.