BER Weekly
BER Weekly, 12 April 2021
Last updated: Apr 12 2021 6:52AM
In the two weeks since the previous weekly release, the global newsflow on COVID-19 has seesawed. There were positive headlines as vaccine rollouts in many countries (excluding SA unfortunately) continued, resulting in a brighter outlook for global growth.
read moreIn the two weeks since the previous weekly release, the global newsflow on COVID-19 has seesawed. There were positive headlines as vaccine rollouts in many countries (excluding SA unfortunately) continued, resulting in a brighter outlook for global growth. However, this was countered by growing concerns about the near-term impact of renewed lockdowns implemented (mainly in Europe) and side-effect issues of the AstraZeneca shot. The possible impact on growth and price dynamics due to persistent supply-chain disruptions and shortages of key components, such as semiconductors used in transport manufacturing, also featured in global – and local – headlines.
BER Weekly, 29 March 2021
Last updated: Mar 29 2021 7:27AM
Following a few weeks that were not overly dominated by COVID-19 developments, unpleasant virus trends in Europe were a key focus last week. Stricter lockdowns in parts of Europe amid yet another resurgence in infections led to renewed concerns about the
read moreFollowing a few weeks that were not overly dominated by COVID-19 developments, unpleasant virus trends in Europe were a key focus last week. Stricter lockdowns in parts of Europe amid yet another resurgence in infections led to renewed concerns about the global demand for key commodities.
BER Weekly, 19 March 2021
Last updated: Mar 19 2021 7:59AM
Despite it being only a couple of days since the release of the previous Weekly, a lot has happened. From an economic perspective, the most important local developments were probably on the energy supply front. The international focus was on the US, with the
read moreDespite it being only a couple of days since the release of the previous Weekly, a lot has happened. From an economic perspective, the most important local developments were probably on the energy supply front. The international focus was on the US, with the roll-out of the $1.9 trillion stimulus programme and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate call and updated economic projections.
BER Weekly, 15 March 2021
Last updated: Mar 15 2021 8:09AM
Last week was a busy one on the domestic data front, with key quarterly and monthly releases published by Stats SA, the SA Reserve Bank and the BER. While the Q4 GDP data came out better than expected, the return of load-shedding stole some of the shine as it
read moreLast week was a busy one on the domestic data front, with key quarterly and monthly releases published by Stats SA, the SA Reserve Bank and the BER. While the Q4 GDP data came out better than expected, the return of load-shedding stole some of the shine as it once again highlighted one of the key downside risks for the 2021 real GDP growth outlook.
BER Weekly, 8 March 2021
Last updated: Mar 8 2021 7:09AM
Some weeks more than others one is struck by the large amount of work that still needs to be done to mend the trust deficit between the key social partners in SA, and to improve institutions. Last week was one of those weeks.
read moreSome weeks more than others one is struck by the large amount of work that still needs to be done to mend the trust deficit between the key social partners in SA, and to improve institutions. Last week was one of those weeks.
BER Weekly, 1 March 2021
Last updated: Mar 1 2021 9:09AM
Even with the release of data showing a record high unemployment rate in 2020Q4, it turned out to be a fairly good week for the SA economy. Daily new COVID-19 infections remained well contained, while the second batch of 80 000 J&J vaccines arrived (albeit
read moreEven with the release of data showing a record high unemployment rate in 2020Q4, it turned out to be a fairly good week for the SA economy. Daily new COVID-19 infections remained well contained, while the second batch of 80 000 J&J vaccines arrived (albeit controversially with the grounded SAA being the carrier). In addition, relative to the October 2020 budget statement, the 2021 budget outlined a much-improved debt trajectory. The week ended on a positive note with the announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa that the country moved to Alert Level 1 lockdown restrictions from late last night.
BER Weekly, 22 February 2021
Last updated: Feb 22 2021 8:20AM
As is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the
read moreAs is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the inflation release, the domestic data releases continued to show that there was still some recovery momentum in 2020Q4. Probably the most welcome news of the week was that, after some delay, SA started its vaccination rollout to frontline health workers.
BER Weekly, 15 February 2021
Last updated: Feb 15 2021 8:57AM
All eyes were on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (SONA) on Thursday – a day after the first bout of stage 3 load-shedding this year. Usually a glitzy affair, the SONA was toned down significantly this year. Regarding the speech, it was
read moreAll eyes were on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (SONA) on Thursday – a day after the first bout of stage 3 load-shedding this year. Usually a glitzy affair, the SONA was toned down significantly this year. Regarding the speech, it was more focused than in recent years, with some important commitments made. As always, the question is how many of these will see the light of day. Given the dreadful track record on policy implementation, the address received a fairly lukewarm response.
BER Weekly, 8 February 2021
Last updated: Feb 8 2021 9:47AM
The week started on a positive note with the arrival of SA’s first COVID-19 vaccines and the lifting of some Level 3 lockdown restrictions. However, it ended on a sour note with stage 2 load-shedding and confirmation that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not
read moreThe week started on a positive note with the arrival of SA’s first COVID-19 vaccines and the lifting of some Level 3 lockdown restrictions. However, it ended on a sour note with stage 2 load-shedding and confirmation that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not provide sufficient protection against mild cases of the COVID-19 variant that fuelled SA’s second virus wave.
BER Weekly, 1 February 2021
Last updated: Feb 1 2021 8:19AM
Last week was another busy one, with the overall newsflow a bit of a mixed bag. Encouragingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its global growth forecast for this year, but, like the BER, turned more pessimistic about SA’s prospects. On the
read moreLast week was another busy one, with the overall newsflow a bit of a mixed bag. Encouragingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its global growth forecast for this year, but, like the BER, turned more pessimistic about SA’s prospects. On the global data front, the first estimate of US Q4 GDP data turned out slightly lower than expected, while European figures surprised on the upside. Locally, domestic data for December generally came out slightly better than expected, but the outlook remains uncertain.