BER Research Notes
no3...COVID-19: The impact on the South African tourism industry
Last updated: May 18 2020 2:50PM
Under normal circumstances, the tourism industry is an important driver of growth and job creation in the South African (SA) economy. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic effectively brought all domestic and inbound tourism to a standstill and is expected to
read moreUnder normal circumstances, the tourism industry is an important driver of growth and job creation in the South African (SA) economy. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic effectively brought all domestic and inbound tourism to a standstill and is expected to result in massive job and revenue losses in this industry.
no2...The historical performance and outlook for public sector infrastructure investment
Last updated: May 7 2020 10:07AM
Public sector fixed investment will be a drag on the economy in the short- to medium term. Furthermore, sectors which rely heavily on this as a source of work/income, most prominently the construction sector, will continue to see new work remain scarce.
read morePublic sector fixed investment will be a drag on the economy in the short- to medium term. Furthermore, sectors which rely heavily on this as a source of work/income, most prominently the construction sector, will continue to see new work remain scarce.
no 1… Developments in trading of the rand in foreign currency markets
Last updated: Feb 6 2020 11:50AM
The rand remains a highly liquid emerging market currency. However, the trading of the rand in foreign exchange markets is increasingly taking place outside of South Africa, and by non-bank financial institutions. This is a trend observed in most emerging
read moreThe rand remains a highly liquid emerging market currency. However, the trading of the rand in foreign exchange markets is increasingly taking place outside of South Africa, and by non-bank financial institutions. This is a trend observed in most emerging market currencies. this change brings with it a need for market participants, especially the monetary authorities, to change the way they gather their market intelligence.
no 3… The release of high-demand radio spectrum – some considerations in realising the potential economic impact
Last updated: Oct 7 2019 8:28AM
There has been considerable attention paid to the expected economic impact of releasing additional and as yet unused, spectrum to South African telecom companies. Broadly, the assumption is that it will somehow trigger significant economic activity. As such,
read moreThere has been considerable attention paid to the expected economic impact of releasing additional and as yet unused, spectrum to South African telecom companies. Broadly, the assumption is that it will somehow trigger significant economic activity. As such, any delay in awarding spectrum is therefore supposedly hampering economic growth. This note unpacks some of the elements towards leveraging the intended release of spectrum and its expected economic benefits
no2… Balance-sheet policies and the South African Reserve Bank
Last updated: Sep 4 2019 2:56PM
Prominent South African politicians have recently argued for a change in the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) as well as a change in the conduct of monetary policy. Specifically, the SARB was encouraged to use so-called quantitative easing
read moreProminent South African politicians have recently argued for a change in the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) as well as a change in the conduct of monetary policy. Specifically, the SARB was encouraged to use so-called quantitative easing (QE) in addition to their usual interest rate policy to pursue an agenda of faster economic growth and job creation. This note considers the use of QE and related balance-sheet operations by central banks.
no1...A somewhat trimmed and ‘cleaner’ cabinet, but not clearly pro-growth
Last updated: Jun 7 2019 2:00PM
When the cabinet is analysed through both a macro- and microeconomic lens, it is not clear that President Ramaphosa has assembled a team that will be able to steer SA on a faster growth path in the next five years, and beyond.
read moreWhen the cabinet is analysed through both a macro- and microeconomic lens, it is not clear that President Ramaphosa has assembled a team that will be able to steer SA on a faster growth path in the next five years, and beyond.
no2...Gauging GDP volatility and revisions in South Africa
Last updated: Dec 14 2018 7:35AM
Forecasters are finding it harder to predict the first release of quarterly GDP figures. This has prompted an analysis of the features of SA’s quarterly GDP growth estimates. In understanding more of the features of the quarterly estimates of GDP growth, we
read moreForecasters are finding it harder to predict the first release of quarterly GDP figures. This has prompted an analysis of the features of SA’s quarterly GDP growth estimates. In understanding more of the features of the quarterly estimates of GDP growth, we endeavour to not only be more responsible users but also hopefully increase our forecast accuracy.
no1…Ten years after the Lehman collapse: SA’s post-crisis performance in perspective
Last updated: Oct 3 2018 2:10PM
In marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, this short note (exclusive to BER Macro clients) looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The underperformance of the SA economy in the
read moreIn marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, this short note (exclusive to BER Macro clients) looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The underperformance of the SA economy in the post-crisis period was driven by a wide range of complex factors, both internal and external. However, we argue that the relatively simple “back-of-the-envelope” calculations contained in this note do provide some insight into the order of magnitude of the cost of the stagnation in the SA economy between 2010 and 2017.
no3...Inclusive growth: A South African perspective
Last updated: Dec 14 2017 10:54AM
The election of a new ANC President is imminent. Broadly defined, the leading candidates for the top position have expressed opposing views, i.e. radical economic transformation versus inclusive growth, on how to address SA’s significant socio-economic
read moreThe election of a new ANC President is imminent. Broadly defined, the leading candidates for the top position have expressed opposing views, i.e. radical economic transformation versus inclusive growth, on how to address SA’s significant socio-economic challenges. This note comments on the scope for inclusive growth in SA.
no2...The SA consumer landscape
Last updated: Aug 14 2017 12:16PM
We provide a broad overview of the consumer, providing information on demographic trends, consumer income, the consumer balance sheet and consumer spending on an aggregate level using population data and macroeconomic indicators. The main aim is to present
read moreWe provide a broad overview of the consumer, providing information on demographic trends, consumer income, the consumer balance sheet and consumer spending on an aggregate level using population data and macroeconomic indicators. The main aim is to present consumer-facing businesses with a detailed overview of the consumer landscape, including current conditions and expected future trends, in order to better position themselves within the broader consumer environment.