BER Research Notes
no1...A somewhat trimmed and ‘cleaner’ cabinet, but not clearly pro-growth
Last updated: Jun 7 2019 2:00PM
When the cabinet is analysed through both a macro- and microeconomic lens, it is not clear that President Ramaphosa has assembled a team that will be able to steer SA on a faster growth path in the next five years, and beyond.
read moreWhen the cabinet is analysed through both a macro- and microeconomic lens, it is not clear that President Ramaphosa has assembled a team that will be able to steer SA on a faster growth path in the next five years, and beyond.
no2...Gauging GDP volatility and revisions in South Africa
Last updated: Dec 14 2018 7:35AM
Forecasters are finding it harder to predict the first release of quarterly GDP figures. This has prompted an analysis of the features of SA’s quarterly GDP growth estimates. In understanding more of the features of the quarterly estimates of GDP growth, we
read moreForecasters are finding it harder to predict the first release of quarterly GDP figures. This has prompted an analysis of the features of SA’s quarterly GDP growth estimates. In understanding more of the features of the quarterly estimates of GDP growth, we endeavour to not only be more responsible users but also hopefully increase our forecast accuracy.
no1…Ten years after the Lehman collapse: SA’s post-crisis performance in perspective
Last updated: Oct 3 2018 2:10PM
In marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, this short note (exclusive to BER Macro clients) looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The underperformance of the SA economy in the
read moreIn marking the 10th anniversary of the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, this short note (exclusive to BER Macro clients) looks back at the performance of the SA economy between 2010 and 2017. The underperformance of the SA economy in the post-crisis period was driven by a wide range of complex factors, both internal and external. However, we argue that the relatively simple “back-of-the-envelope” calculations contained in this note do provide some insight into the order of magnitude of the cost of the stagnation in the SA economy between 2010 and 2017.
no3...Inclusive growth: A South African perspective
Last updated: Dec 14 2017 10:54AM
The election of a new ANC President is imminent. Broadly defined, the leading candidates for the top position have expressed opposing views, i.e. radical economic transformation versus inclusive growth, on how to address SA’s significant socio-economic
read moreThe election of a new ANC President is imminent. Broadly defined, the leading candidates for the top position have expressed opposing views, i.e. radical economic transformation versus inclusive growth, on how to address SA’s significant socio-economic challenges. This note comments on the scope for inclusive growth in SA.
no2...The SA consumer landscape
Last updated: Aug 14 2017 12:16PM
We provide a broad overview of the consumer, providing information on demographic trends, consumer income, the consumer balance sheet and consumer spending on an aggregate level using population data and macroeconomic indicators. The main aim is to present
read moreWe provide a broad overview of the consumer, providing information on demographic trends, consumer income, the consumer balance sheet and consumer spending on an aggregate level using population data and macroeconomic indicators. The main aim is to present consumer-facing businesses with a detailed overview of the consumer landscape, including current conditions and expected future trends, in order to better position themselves within the broader consumer environment.
no1...Positive Peer Pressure Assisting the Rand?
Last updated: Jul 3 2017 3:55PM
This research note is intended to place the strong performance of the South African rand versus the US dollar over the past two years into global context. This recent appreciation came despite the local economy being plagued by political uncertainty and low
read moreThis research note is intended to place the strong performance of the South African rand versus the US dollar over the past two years into global context. This recent appreciation came despite the local economy being plagued by political uncertainty and low growth, speculation of state capture of key institutions and was characterised by the unceremonious firing of two highly regarded finance ministers.
no3...South Africa’s evolving export profile: explaining the rise of Sub-Saharan Africa trade
Last updated: Dec 12 2016 11:23PM
South Africa’s merchandise export trade profile has changed noticeably in the last 15 years. Of particular significance is that, largely due to improved data capturing, Sub-Saharan Africa became SA’s largest export market in 2010, surpassing the Eurozone and
read moreSouth Africa’s merchandise export trade profile has changed noticeably in the last 15 years. Of particular significance is that, largely due to improved data capturing, Sub-Saharan Africa became SA’s largest export market in 2010, surpassing the Eurozone and East Asia (including China).
no2...The macroeconomic impact of raising the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate in South Africa
Last updated: Jun 20 2016 7:45AM
This note outlines the results of a BER model exercise to simulate the macroeconomic implications of a 1 percentage point increase in the SA VAT rate.
no1...Salient features of SA’s post-2009 business cycle
Last updated: May 13 2016 10:56AM
The objective of the current research note is to analyse the key features of the post-2009 South African (SA) business cycle, i.e. both the expansion phase from 2009 to 2013 and the ensuing economic downturn to date. The analysis is conducted in the context
read moreThe objective of the current research note is to analyse the key features of the post-2009 South African (SA) business cycle, i.e. both the expansion phase from 2009 to 2013 and the ensuing economic downturn to date. The analysis is conducted in the context of SA’s historic business cycles from the mid-1970s.
no4...Household credit and debt, how leveraged are consumers?
Last updated: Dec 11 2015 8:51AM
Growth in credit extension to households increased somewhat this year and households have become increasingly vulnerable to adverse economic shocks. While most household leverage ratios have only increased slightly (so far) this year, the household debt to
read moreGrowth in credit extension to households increased somewhat this year and households have become increasingly vulnerable to adverse economic shocks. While most household leverage ratios have only increased slightly (so far) this year, the household debt to disposable income ratio remains high. Moreover, the debt-service cost to disposable income ratio has started to rise notably. Hence, households are more vulnerable in terms of the affordability of credit. This is especially relevant with further interest rate hikes in 2016 firmly on the cards. Successive interest rate increases, on a relatively high level of debt, can lead to a sharp acceleration in the debt-service cost ratio. This places downside risk on our consumption expenditure forecast.