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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 20.14/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 19.42/litre  CPI April '22 = 5.9% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing March '22 = 11.9%  GDP growth Q4 = 1.8% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 7.75%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 35.3%  Retail sales March '22 = 1.3% y-o-y  Manufacturing output February '22 = 0.2% y-o-y 
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BER Research Notes

Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants. They are intended to inform clients on critical issues in the macroeconomic environment, which may impact on the business environment. Research Notes are exclusive to BER Macro Service clients. For more information, contact us.

Crypto: much ado about nothing or something that will change the world?

Last updated: Dec 10 2021 10:00AM

The introduction of a new era of crypto assets was launched with little fanfare in 2008 when bitcoin.org was registered. Subsequently, both in terms of volume and value, the crypto asset market has exploded, with a market capitalization approaching $3 read more
The introduction of a new era of crypto assets was launched with little fanfare in 2008 when bitcoin.org was registered. Subsequently, both in terms of volume and value, the crypto asset market has exploded, with a market capitalization approaching $3 trillion. This note explores the current state of affairs and the likely regulatory changes to ensure continued development and innovation in this volatile but exciting sector.


SA’s municipal challenges and their impact on local economic development

Last updated: Oct 15 2021 8:45AM

The upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the read more
The upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the infrastructure and basic services that municipalities should provide, local economic development is likely to remain constrained. This makes it more difficult to broaden economic participation and reverse South Africa’s unemployment trend.


The changing landscape of sustainable finance

Last updated: Aug 10 2021 10:15AM

The global climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER read more
The global climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research Note explores how climate change might affect financial stability and how trends in sustainable finance could help respond to the associated threats and opportunities.


The BER’s Inflation Expectations Surveys: Know your data

Last updated: Jul 1 2021 1:16PM

Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER read more
Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER surveys were originally designed and details some of the survey design choices made. In a second research note, we review the academic literature that has made use of the BER’s inflation expectations survey data.


The BER’s Inflation Expectations Surveys: Findings from Academic Research

Last updated: Jul 1 2021 1:18PM

Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER read more
Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER surveys were originally designed and details some of the survey design choices made. In a second research note, we review the academic literature that has made use of the BER’s inflation expectations survey data.


Understanding and forecasting tender prices in South Africa

Last updated: Mar 1 2021 11:57AM

This note discusses the main drivers of tender price growth as measured by the BER Building Cost Index. In addition, a brief background of the BER BCI is provided as well as some insight into the effect of the building cycle on tender prices. The report ends read more
This note discusses the main drivers of tender price growth as measured by the BER Building Cost Index. In addition, a brief background of the BER BCI is provided as well as some insight into the effect of the building cycle on tender prices. The report ends with a forecast of the BER BCI using a purpose-built econometric model and the latest BER macroeconomic forecast.


SA fiscal woes and default risk: A global perspective

Last updated: Feb 17 2021 3:51PM

A global overview of successful fiscal consolidations suggests that SA’s aggressive expenditure-based consolidation strategy ticks a number of boxes. The concern is implementation. Failure to execute the plan risks a fiscal crisis in the next five years. read more
A global overview of successful fiscal consolidations suggests that SA’s aggressive expenditure-based consolidation strategy ticks a number of boxes. The concern is implementation. Failure to execute the plan risks a fiscal crisis in the next five years.


How high-speed internet can help grow the South African economy during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Last updated: Aug 20 2020 8:37AM

There is a large and growing body of evidence that suggests that ICT and connectivity have a positive impact on economic growth. In a world that is increasingly moving into cyberspace, the global COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated online business and social read more
There is a large and growing body of evidence that suggests that ICT and connectivity have a positive impact on economic growth. In a world that is increasingly moving into cyberspace, the global COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated online business and social activity. Unfortunately, this means that those who remain unconnected to the internet are unable to partake in the opportunities that this digital transformation creates and nurtures. To prevent South Africa’s digital divide from worsening the country’s already stark economic inequality, policy makers and regulators need to enable a favourable investment environment.


The right mix: Price and technological development in South Africa's energy grid optimisation

Last updated: Jun 29 2020 9:39AM

The cost of generating electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar power has declined sharply in recent years. There is much evidence to suggest that these costs have become competitive to coal-fired electricity. Optimising the electricity system read more
The cost of generating electricity from renewable sources like wind and solar power has declined sharply in recent years. There is much evidence to suggest that these costs have become competitive to coal-fired electricity. Optimising the electricity system means that the financial and environmental costs of different forms of energy generation need to be considered, while accommodating variation in demand. This research note shows that based on recent cost trends in renewable energy and the expectation of further cost declines, it might well be cost-effective to include even more of these sources into South Africa’s future energy mix than what is proposed in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2019).


A South African Sovereign Wealth Fund: A Century Too Late or Instrument of Reform?

Last updated: Jun 3 2020 8:29AM

It is difficult to see where the money for a sovereign wealth fund could possibly come from in the period of fiscal consolidation that lies ahead for South Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic.


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