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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 21.4/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 20.75/litre  CPI December '22 = 7.2% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing December '22 = 13.5%  GDP growth Q3 = 4% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 10.5%  Unemployment rate Q3 = 32.9%  Retail sales November '22 = 0.4% y-o-y  Manufacturing output November '22 = -1.1% y-o-y 
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BER Research Notes

Research Notes are more in-depth analyses undertaken by BER economists and consultants. They are intended to inform clients on critical issues in the macroeconomic environment, which may impact on the business environment. Research Notes are exclusive to BER Macro Service clients. For more information, contact us.

Updating the BER Building Cost Index: A review of indicator items and weights

Date Uploaded: Dec 14 2022 12:15PM

The BER BCI (Building Cost Index) is widely used in the building sector as well as the finance and insurance sector. However, the index has come under some scrutiny over the last few years due to, among other things, the appropriateness of the items included read more
The BER BCI (Building Cost Index) is widely used in the building sector as well as the finance and insurance sector. However, the index has come under some scrutiny over the last few years due to, among other things, the appropriateness of the items included in the index. This paper details a process which started at the end of 2020 to evaluate and, if possible, implement changes to the list of items (i.e. indicator items) included in the BER BCI.


Unpacking how SA’s consumer inflation rate rose slower than the US, the UK, and the Eurozone

Date Uploaded: Dec 13 2022 2:30PM

Global inflation accelerated through the second half of 2021, and by 2022, inflation in many advanced economies spiked to multi-decade highs and central banks scrambled to bring down inflation. South Africa was no exception to this trend and saw inflation read more
Global inflation accelerated through the second half of 2021, and by 2022, inflation in many advanced economies spiked to multi-decade highs and central banks scrambled to bring down inflation. South Africa was no exception to this trend and saw inflation accelerate to multi-year highs through 2022. However, unlike the historic experience, South Africa’s inflation remained below some of the advanced economies. This note unpacks some of the reasons behind the recent surge in global inflation and highlights why South Africa diverged from the historical trend.


Targeting inflation: A review of the outcomes since 2000

Date Uploaded: Nov 24 2022 8:30AM

A historical overview of inflation outcomes in SA suggests that inflation targeting has served SA well as the major anchor of monetary policy, with targeted inflation trending lower over the past 20 years. This BER note reflects on the past two decades of read more
A historical overview of inflation outcomes in SA suggests that inflation targeting has served SA well as the major anchor of monetary policy, with targeted inflation trending lower over the past 20 years. This BER note reflects on the past two decades of inflation targeting in SA and how the SARB established credibility that resulted in better anchored inflation expectations.


Crypto: much ado about nothing or something that will change the world?

Date Uploaded: Dec 10 2021 10:30AM

The introduction of a new era of crypto assets was launched with little fanfare in 2008 when bitcoin.org was registered. Subsequently, both in terms of volume and value, the crypto asset market has exploded, with a market capitalization approaching $3 read more
The introduction of a new era of crypto assets was launched with little fanfare in 2008 when bitcoin.org was registered. Subsequently, both in terms of volume and value, the crypto asset market has exploded, with a market capitalization approaching $3 trillion. This note explores the current state of affairs and the likely regulatory changes to ensure continued development and innovation in this volatile but exciting sector.


SA’s municipal challenges and their impact on local economic development

Date Uploaded: Oct 15 2021 8:45AM

The upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the read more
The upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the infrastructure and basic services that municipalities should provide, local economic development is likely to remain constrained. This makes it more difficult to broaden economic participation and reverse South Africa’s unemployment trend.


The changing landscape of sustainable finance

Date Uploaded: Aug 10 2021 11:00AM

The global climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER read more
The global climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research Note explores how climate change might affect financial stability and how trends in sustainable finance could help respond to the associated threats and opportunities.


The BER’s Inflation Expectations Surveys: Know your data

Date Uploaded: Jul 1 2021 2:00PM

Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER read more
Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER surveys were originally designed and details some of the survey design choices made. In a second research note, we review the academic literature that has made use of the BER’s inflation expectations survey data.


The BER’s Inflation Expectations Surveys: Findings from Academic Research

Date Uploaded: Jul 1 2021 2:00PM

Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER read more
Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? The first note considers the local context within which the BER surveys were originally designed and details some of the survey design choices made. In a second research note, we review the academic literature that has made use of the BER’s inflation expectations survey data.


Understanding and forecasting tender prices in South Africa

Date Uploaded: Mar 1 2021 1:00PM

This note discusses the main drivers of tender price growth as measured by the BER Building Cost Index. In addition, a brief background of the BER BCI is provided as well as some insight into the effect of the building cycle on tender prices. The report ends read more
This note discusses the main drivers of tender price growth as measured by the BER Building Cost Index. In addition, a brief background of the BER BCI is provided as well as some insight into the effect of the building cycle on tender prices. The report ends with a forecast of the BER BCI using a purpose-built econometric model and the latest BER macroeconomic forecast.


SA fiscal woes and default risk: A global perspective

Date Uploaded: Feb 17 2021 4:15PM

A global overview of successful fiscal consolidations suggests that SA’s aggressive expenditure-based consolidation strategy ticks a number of boxes. The concern is implementation. Failure to execute the plan risks a fiscal crisis in the next five years. read more
A global overview of successful fiscal consolidations suggests that SA’s aggressive expenditure-based consolidation strategy ticks a number of boxes. The concern is implementation. Failure to execute the plan risks a fiscal crisis in the next five years.


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