BER Comment
MPC belatedly reduces the repo rate as inflation forecast improves significantly
Last updated: Jan 16 2020 6:09PM
In a unanimous decision and against expectations, the MPC reduced the repo policy rate by 25bps to 6.25%.
GDP contracts in Q3, 2019 forecast intact
Last updated: Dec 3 2019 9:29PM
Real GDP performed worse than expected in 2019Q3, contracting by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (annualised).
2019Q4 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Nov 27 2019 3:05PM
There seem to be some tentative signs of slight improvements in some of the underlying indicators during Q4, but signals are mixed at this stage. The improvements are generally not enough to warrant optimism as indicators may simply be stabilising after very
read moreThere seem to be some tentative signs of slight improvements in some of the underlying indicators during Q4, but signals are mixed at this stage. The improvements are generally not enough to warrant optimism as indicators may simply be stabilising after very weak Q3 readings. Moreover, when delving deeper into the detail it becomes clear that these are mostly confined to specific subsectors (with some exhibiting a usual seasonal jump in Q4).
Repo rate unchanged in a close call
Last updated: Nov 21 2019 5:02PM
The SARB MPC voted in a 3-2 split to keep the repo policy rate unchanged at 6.50%.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Last updated: Nov 1 2019 11:16AM
This comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note
read moreThis comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note unpacks the PMI’s relationship with official manufacturing production data and how this has changed since the domestic recession triggered by the global financial crisis in 2008/09. The note also provides some possible reasons for this change.
MTBPS is 2017 all over again, with a bigger hole
Last updated: Oct 30 2019 7:39PM
Significantly worse revenue projections, SOE bailouts, and less-than-expected non-Eskom expenditure cuts result in a debt trajectory that is materially worse than presented in February.
MPC remains focused on risks, hesitant to signal a downward interest rate cycle
Last updated: Sep 20 2019 8:25AM
The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50%.
Business Survey Results 2019Q3: Main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Sep 11 2019 4:28PM
The survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed.
read moreThe survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed.
Q2 GDP bounces, risks cloud second half
Last updated: Sep 3 2019 2:47PM
Real GDP bounced back by more than expected in the second quarter, recovering all the ground lost in the shock contraction during 2019Q1.
Prescribed assets not suited to drive development
Last updated: Aug 30 2019 11:17AM
The possibility of a policy of prescribed assets received renewed attention in January with the release of the ANC’s 2019 election manifesto.