BER Comment
A (slight) hawkish tilt as MPC votes 5-0 for unchanged repo rate
Last updated: Mar 25 2021 5:59PM
For the fourth meeting in a row, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.
2012Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Mar 11 2021 4:29PM
The survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data
read moreThe survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data electronically (as part of the RMB/BER BCI data file available for download).
Even as Q4 sustains the recovery, a depression-like GDP decline in 2020
Last updated: Mar 9 2021 3:15PM
Real GDP moderated sharply to a better-than-expected 6.3% q-o-q (annualised) during 2020Q4, from the blockbuster 67.3% in 2020Q3.
Treasury sticks to their guns as revenue windfall provides a welcome reprieve
Last updated: Feb 25 2021 6:28AM
Notwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for.
read moreNotwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for.
New report reflects on progress towards NDP objectives.
Last updated: Feb 18 2021 12:13PM
In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as
read moreIn collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as short and concise a format as possible. This report shows progress in South Africa’s development in some areas, though outcomes have fallen short of the NDP’s aspirations in several key indicators. Strong corrective action is needed to achieve the targets of the NDP. Success will require a collective effort by all of society – government, the private sector, churches and NGOs – to realise these goals. With the Annual NDP Assessment Report, the BER and its network of collaborators hope to contribute to the accelerated, and ultimately successful, implementation of the NDP as we traverse the journey to 2030.
Same again as policy rate on hold in a 3-2 vote split
Last updated: Jan 21 2021 6:14PM
For the third meeting in a row, the SARB MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.
Epic Q3 GDP bounce after historic Q2 decline
Last updated: Dec 8 2020 3:45PM
Real GDP recovered by a blockbuster 66.1% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q3. Even so, the level of real GDP was still 5.3% below 2020Q1 (-5.8% relative to 2019Q4), i.e. we still have a long way to go before reaching the pre-COVID level of overall activity in the
read moreReal GDP recovered by a blockbuster 66.1% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q3. Even so, the level of real GDP was still 5.3% below 2020Q1 (-5.8% relative to 2019Q4), i.e. we still have a long way to go before reaching the pre-COVID level of overall activity in the economy.
2020Q4 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Nov 25 2020 4:46PM
Going by the survey indicators, recovery momentum has not stalled in Q4. However, the indicators suggest that the production-side of the economy saw less of an improvement, with the consumer-linked sectors showing more recovery momentum. This raises concern
read moreGoing by the survey indicators, recovery momentum has not stalled in Q4. However, the indicators suggest that the production-side of the economy saw less of an improvement, with the consumer-linked sectors showing more recovery momentum. This raises concern regarding the sustainability of the upward movement/further recovery in confidence and activity indicators.
MPC remains on hold as fiscal risks (again) flagged
Last updated: Nov 19 2020 6:00PM
As in September, the MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% at the final policy meeting of the year.
The South African manufacturing PMI
Last updated: Nov 2 2020 10:12AM
This comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2020 release. A textbox provides
read moreThis comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2020 release. A textbox provides further information on how to interpret the PMI during South Africa’s lockdown and subsequent recovery. Finally, the comment provides some insight on the relationship between the PMI and official manufacturing production.