BER Comment
GDP locked up as historic decline looms
Last updated: Mar 25 2020 3:22PM
We currently see SA real GDP declining by a range of 2 to 4% in 2020, before recovering to post growth of 2.5 to 3% during 2021.
MPC joins coordinated global push to lower policy rates with an aggressive (and much needed) cut
Last updated: Mar 19 2020 7:48PM
In a responsive move that recognises the dramatic recent deterioration in the global and SA GDP outlook, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100bps to 5.25%.
The Corona Crisis: A strong monetary policy response is required
Last updated: Mar 18 2020 12:52PM
While the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term.
read moreWhile the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term.
2020Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Mar 13 2020 9:36AM
The survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights
read moreThe survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights the further downside risks the global pandemic hold for an already ailing economy. The hit to the global economy increases daily and local disruptions have yet to strike fully.
GDP contracts again in Q4, making it three out of four for 2019
Last updated: Mar 3 2020 1:59PM
Real GDP suffered a second consecutive quarter of decline in 2019Q4, pushing the SA economy into another technical recession.
Credibility on the line as (non-negotiated) wage bill reductions fail to stabilise debt levels
Last updated: Feb 26 2020 10:46PM
The 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in
read moreThe 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in the MTBPS.
MPC belatedly reduces the repo rate as inflation forecast improves significantly
Last updated: Jan 16 2020 6:09PM
In a unanimous decision and against expectations, the MPC reduced the repo policy rate by 25bps to 6.25%.
GDP contracts in Q3, 2019 forecast intact
Last updated: Dec 3 2019 9:29PM
Real GDP performed worse than expected in 2019Q3, contracting by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (annualised).
2019Q4 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Nov 27 2019 3:05PM
There seem to be some tentative signs of slight improvements in some of the underlying indicators during Q4, but signals are mixed at this stage. The improvements are generally not enough to warrant optimism as indicators may simply be stabilising after very
read moreThere seem to be some tentative signs of slight improvements in some of the underlying indicators during Q4, but signals are mixed at this stage. The improvements are generally not enough to warrant optimism as indicators may simply be stabilising after very weak Q3 readings. Moreover, when delving deeper into the detail it becomes clear that these are mostly confined to specific subsectors (with some exhibiting a usual seasonal jump in Q4).
Repo rate unchanged in a close call
Last updated: Nov 21 2019 5:02PM
The SARB MPC voted in a 3-2 split to keep the repo policy rate unchanged at 6.50%.