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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 26.74/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 26.09/litre  CPI June '22 = 7.4% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing June '22 = 16.2%  GDP growth Q1 = 2.9% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 9%  Unemployment rate Q1 = 34.5%  Retail sales May '22 = 0.1% y-o-y  Manufacturing output May '22 = -2.3% y-o-y 
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Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.

An aggressive hike with a hawkish statement

Last updated: Jul 21 2022 5:57PM

In a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle. read more
In a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle.


Upside surprise sees real GDP back to pre-pandemic level in Q1; shocks will hurt Q2

Last updated: Jun 7 2022 8:55PM

Real GDP growth handsomely outpaced expectations in 2022Q1. Despite a likely poor Q2 amid numerous shocks, this provides some comfort that growth could surpass 2% in 2022.


SARB ups the ante with a 50bps hike

Last updated: May 19 2022 5:45PM

The SARB’s MPC announced a 50bps increase in the repo rate, and again flagged upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook.


A hawkish hike of 25bps that could easily have swung to 50bps

Last updated: Mar 25 2022 6:49AM

The SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish. read more
The SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish.


Stress testing inflation

Last updated: Mar 10 2022 1:01PM

In this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation. Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected. read more
In this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation. Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected.


Incomplete Q4 GDP recovery, Russia invasion clouds outlook

Last updated: Mar 8 2022 6:29PM

After declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to read more
After declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to the outlook.


Budget 2022: Short-term cheer but major fiscal hurdles remain

Last updated: Feb 24 2022 9:51PM

At first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget read more
At first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget statement to the next (this predates COVID-19), it is a challenge to be overly confident that the fiscal numbers will turn out as presented in the latest update. There are downside risks on both the revenue and expenditure side, in our view. For the most part, these are beyond 2022.


Another 25bps repo rate increase, with more in the offing

Last updated: Jan 27 2022 5:07PM

As widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and read more
As widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and given the other upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook, we have adjusted the interest rate view for another 75bps (three hikes of 25bps each in March, July and September) in the rest of 2022.


We have repo rate lift-off. Just

Last updated: Jan 6 2022 7:51AM

After the repo policy interest rate was kept unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% since July 2020, the SARB kicked off a process of monetary policy normalisation with a 25bps increase.


Third wave and unrest shock derail GDP recovery

Last updated: Dec 7 2021 6:09PM

Against the backdrop of several well documented domestic shocks, real GDP surprised on the downside with a decline of 1.5% q-o-q in Q3. Along with downward revisions to growth in the first half of 2021 and downside risks to Q4, the economy is now unlikely to read more
Against the backdrop of several well documented domestic shocks, real GDP surprised on the downside with a decline of 1.5% q-o-q in Q3. Along with downward revisions to growth in the first half of 2021 and downside risks to Q4, the economy is now unlikely to grow by 5% in 2021. In a separate, more positive development, Parliamentarians today voted against amending the Constitution to allow for expropriation without compensation.


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