BER Comment
MTBPS: Concerning headline numbers, but with intent to shift to something more sustainable
Last updated: Oct 24 2018 6:44PM
Relative to the February Budget, the MTBPS revealed significant slippage on the fiscal consolidation with overall government debt now expected to stabilise just below 60% of GDP.
A hawkish stay of execution on the repo rate
Last updated: Sep 20 2018 6:29PM
In a close decision, the MPC kept the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50%.
2018Q3 Business Survey Main Results and Implications
Last updated: Sep 12 2018 8:28AM
This presentation style note shows that the further dip in confidence and activity during the third quarter does not bode well for year-on-year GDP growth (at least non-agricultural GDP) in Q3. Overall, the survey results foreshadow continued underperformance
read moreThis presentation style note shows that the further dip in confidence and activity during the third quarter does not bode well for year-on-year GDP growth (at least non-agricultural GDP) in Q3. Overall, the survey results foreshadow continued underperformance of the economy in the second half of the year. This implies that it may be difficult to register even 1% GDP growth in 2018.
Technical recession leaves 2018 growth in the doldrums
Last updated: Sep 4 2018 3:12PM
Stats SA reported that the SA economy slipped into a technical recession in 2018Q2.
2018Q2 Business survey results and main implications
Last updated: Jun 14 2018 11:07AM
This presentation-style note summarises the second quarter business survey results. In line with the drop in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, the average activity indicator dipped back to 17Q4 levels. Overall, the survey results highlight the tight spot
read moreThis presentation-style note summarises the second quarter business survey results. In line with the drop in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, the average activity indicator dipped back to 17Q4 levels. Overall, the survey results highlight the tight spot the economy is currently in and imply that GDP growth for 2018 as a whole might be closer to 1.5% than to 2%
Notable GDP contraction at the start of 2018
Last updated: Jun 5 2018 2:51PM
Stats SA reported that GDP declined in 2018Q1. On a number of fronts, it was a horrible GDP print.
Salient points from a BER panel discussion on land
Last updated: Jun 4 2018 8:22AM
A short note on key takeaways from a BER panel discussion on the land issue.
Repo rate on hold, inflation risks on the upside
Last updated: May 24 2018 9:49PM
As expected, the MPC kept the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50% (prime rate at 10.00%).
In a close call, MPC cuts by 25bps
Last updated: Mar 28 2018 6:02PM
As widely expected, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.50% (prime rate at 10.00%).
2018Q1 Business survey results and main implications
Last updated: Mar 16 2018 10:01AM
The results foreshadow that we may already be in a cyclical upturn and bodes well for GDP growth from 2018 onwards. While overall GDP growth is likely to moderate in Q1, considering the survey results, this may not necessarily be the case for growth in GDP
read moreThe results foreshadow that we may already be in a cyclical upturn and bodes well for GDP growth from 2018 onwards. While overall GDP growth is likely to moderate in Q1, considering the survey results, this may not necessarily be the case for growth in GDP excluding the primary sector. Selling price indicators in the Q1 results are consistent with low consumer inflation and this should support sales volumes this year. Expected indicators for Q2 suggest contained VAT impact (at least initially).