BER Comment
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Last updated: Nov 1 2019 11:16AM
This comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note
read moreThis comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note unpacks the PMI’s relationship with official manufacturing production data and how this has changed since the domestic recession triggered by the global financial crisis in 2008/09. The note also provides some possible reasons for this change.
MTBPS is 2017 all over again, with a bigger hole
Last updated: Oct 30 2019 7:39PM
Significantly worse revenue projections, SOE bailouts, and less-than-expected non-Eskom expenditure cuts result in a debt trajectory that is materially worse than presented in February.
MPC remains focused on risks, hesitant to signal a downward interest rate cycle
Last updated: Sep 20 2019 8:25AM
The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50%.
Business Survey Results 2019Q3: Main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Sep 11 2019 4:28PM
The survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed.
read moreThe survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed.
Q2 GDP bounces, risks cloud second half
Last updated: Sep 3 2019 2:47PM
Real GDP bounced back by more than expected in the second quarter, recovering all the ground lost in the shock contraction during 2019Q1.
Prescribed assets not suited to drive development
Last updated: Aug 30 2019 11:17AM
The possibility of a policy of prescribed assets received renewed attention in January with the release of the ANC’s 2019 election manifesto.
Global concerns, weak SA growth and low inflation justify repo rate cut
Last updated: Jul 18 2019 5:00PM
In a unanimous decision, the MPC decided to reduce the repo policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.50%.
2019Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Jun 13 2019 2:15PM
The 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price
read moreThe 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price and profitability indicators continue to indicate pressure on margins, implying that the probability of a cut in the repo rate at the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting in July has increased further.
Another Q1 GDP shocker erases hope of 1% growth in 2019
Last updated: Jun 4 2019 4:01PM
Real GDP declined by a much larger-than-expected 3.2% q-o-q (annualised) in 2019Q1. As a result, real GDP growth may turn out to be closer to 0.5% than 1% in 2019.
How South African business can contribute to sustainable land reform
Last updated: May 21 2019 10:34AM
Land reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to
read moreLand reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to urban and peri-urban land. This comment presents some guidelines and a framework to illustrate how the private sector and individuals can make a contribution to land reform.