BER Comment
BER Business Surveys 2017Q3: Main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Sep 14 2017 1:33PM
This presentation-style note summarises the third quarter business survey results. While business confidence recovered partially, business conditions remained tough and underlying results signal very weak effective demand. The results are consistent with
read moreThis presentation-style note summarises the third quarter business survey results. While business confidence recovered partially, business conditions remained tough and underlying results signal very weak effective demand. The results are consistent with annual average GDP growth of below 1% for this year.
Recession ends as GDP recovers in Q2
Last updated: Sep 5 2017 5:56PM
The SA economy exited the technical recession in 2017Q2 with GDP growing at a faster than expected rate of 2.5% q-o-q (saar).
MPC cuts by 25bps, Governor firm on mandate
Last updated: Jul 21 2017 7:42AM
Against the overwhelming financial market consensus - and our expectation - for an unchanged repo rate, the MPC reduced the policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.75% (prime rate down to 10.25%).
Should government leave banking to the bankers?
Last updated: Jul 7 2017 10:32AM
A specific policy-related issue that keeps rearing its head, both domestically and internationally, is the debate around the need for and/or the role of government-owned financial institutions, particularly government-owned banks. At the recent ANC policy
read moreA specific policy-related issue that keeps rearing its head, both domestically and internationally, is the debate around the need for and/or the role of government-owned financial institutions, particularly government-owned banks. At the recent ANC policy conference, delegates have given the government an ultimatum to ensure that a state bank is up and running within the next six months. In light of this resolution, this comment briefly unpacks the motivation for and case against the creation of a state-owned bank.
BER Business Surveys 2017Q2: Main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Jun 15 2017 4:21PM
Business conditions remained weak in Q2. The survey results indicate that at least year-on-year GDP growth in all likelihood slowed even further during the quarter. In fact, it is possible that GDP growth for the full year will be even lower than the 0.3%
read moreBusiness conditions remained weak in Q2. The survey results indicate that at least year-on-year GDP growth in all likelihood slowed even further during the quarter. In fact, it is possible that GDP growth for the full year will be even lower than the 0.3% realised last year.
Recession bites as GDP declines again
Last updated: Jun 6 2017 3:15PM
If ever there was any doubt that the SA economy is in serious trouble, the shocking 2017Q1 GDP figures removed any uncertainty about the extent of the malaise. Stats SA reported that GDP declined by 0.7% (q-o-q) in the first quarter.
read moreIf ever there was any doubt that the SA economy is in serious trouble, the shocking 2017Q1 GDP figures removed any uncertainty about the extent of the malaise. Stats SA reported that GDP declined by 0.7% (q-o-q) in the first quarter.
Disentangling actual and survey-based manufacturing data
Last updated: May 4 2017 9:23AM
The performance of the South African manufacturing sector has remained dismal after an initial recovery from the economic recession in 2008/09. This short comment unpacks the most recent manufacturing output data and delves into some of the underlying reasons
read moreThe performance of the South African manufacturing sector has remained dismal after an initial recovery from the economic recession in 2008/09. This short comment unpacks the most recent manufacturing output data and delves into some of the underlying reasons why, despite an apparent alleviation of supply-side constraints through last year, manufacturing output has continued to disappoint.
MPC highlights self-inflicted currency risk
Last updated: Mar 31 2017 6:20AM
This week’s sharp reversal of the strengthening trend for the rand exchange rate dominated the latest MPC interest rate statement. In line with our and the financial market expectation, the MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7% (prime rate at
read moreThis week’s sharp reversal of the strengthening trend for the rand exchange rate dominated the latest MPC interest rate statement. In line with our and the financial market expectation, the MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7% (prime rate at 10.5%).
Reshuffle brings downside risks to the fore
Last updated: Mar 31 2017 1:29PM
As widely speculated over the past week and indeed for months, President Jacob Zuma announced a broad-based cabinet reshuffle late on Thursday evening. At this early stage, our judgement is that the downside risks to the domestic economy have increased
read moreAs widely speculated over the past week and indeed for months, President Jacob Zuma announced a broad-based cabinet reshuffle late on Thursday evening. At this early stage, our judgement is that the downside risks to the domestic economy have increased notably over the past 24 hours.
BER business surveys highlight the downside risks to the outlook for investment and consumption
Last updated: Mar 17 2017 3:03PM
Summary text, with a link to a video presentation, of the key results and implications of the latest round of BER business survey results in 2017Q1.