BER Comment
2019Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Mar 13 2019 1:10PM
The pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019.
read moreThe pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019.
Space running out to counter unforeseen expenditure
Last updated: Feb 21 2019 9:02AM
In many ways, the 2019 Budget was a repeat of 2018 where a large, unexpected, expenditure item forced a reprioritisation of government spending, as well as tax increases.
Repo rate unchanged on notable inflation improvement
Last updated: Jan 17 2019 4:50PM
The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate at 10.25%).
GDP_2018Q3
Last updated: Dec 4 2018 1:51PM
The SA economy came out of the technical recession in 2018Q3. Stats SA reported that GDP expanded by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), annualised, a robust recovery from an upwardly revised 0.4% contraction in 2018Q2.
read moreThe SA economy came out of the technical recession in 2018Q3. Stats SA reported that GDP expanded by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), annualised, a robust recovery from an upwardly revised 0.4% contraction in 2018Q2.
Latest BER survey results: implications at a glance
Last updated: Nov 30 2018 9:42AM
The underlying survey results are consistent with a mild improvement in growth during the fourth quarter, even with the slight decline in the overall RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI). The BER expects that Q3 GDP (released 4 December) will register a
read moreThe underlying survey results are consistent with a mild improvement in growth during the fourth quarter, even with the slight decline in the overall RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI). The BER expects that Q3 GDP (released 4 December) will register a positive growth rate (on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised basis). According to the past relationship between the survey results and GDP growth, year-on-year growth is likely to remain relatively weak in the second half of 2018. We would need to see a sustained, broad-based increase in the BCI for economic growth to improve noticeably next year and beyond.
MTBPS: Concerning headline numbers, but with intent to shift to something more sustainable
Last updated: Oct 24 2018 6:44PM
Relative to the February Budget, the MTBPS revealed significant slippage on the fiscal consolidation with overall government debt now expected to stabilise just below 60% of GDP.
A hawkish stay of execution on the repo rate
Last updated: Sep 20 2018 6:29PM
In a close decision, the MPC kept the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50%.
2018Q3 Business Survey Main Results and Implications
Last updated: Sep 12 2018 8:28AM
This presentation style note shows that the further dip in confidence and activity during the third quarter does not bode well for year-on-year GDP growth (at least non-agricultural GDP) in Q3. Overall, the survey results foreshadow continued underperformance
read moreThis presentation style note shows that the further dip in confidence and activity during the third quarter does not bode well for year-on-year GDP growth (at least non-agricultural GDP) in Q3. Overall, the survey results foreshadow continued underperformance of the economy in the second half of the year. This implies that it may be difficult to register even 1% GDP growth in 2018.
Technical recession leaves 2018 growth in the doldrums
Last updated: Sep 4 2018 3:12PM
Stats SA reported that the SA economy slipped into a technical recession in 2018Q2.
2018Q2 Business survey results and main implications
Last updated: Jun 14 2018 11:07AM
This presentation-style note summarises the second quarter business survey results. In line with the drop in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, the average activity indicator dipped back to 17Q4 levels. Overall, the survey results highlight the tight spot
read moreThis presentation-style note summarises the second quarter business survey results. In line with the drop in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, the average activity indicator dipped back to 17Q4 levels. Overall, the survey results highlight the tight spot the economy is currently in and imply that GDP growth for 2018 as a whole might be closer to 1.5% than to 2%