BER Comment

Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results.

2021Q4 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Nov 24 2021 5:08PM

Activity hamstrung by supply constraints in Q4, despite improvements in underlying demand, according to the latest survey results.

We have repo rate lift-off. Just

Last updated: Nov 18 2021 5:29PM

After the repo policy interest rate was kept unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% since July 2020, the SARB kicked off a process of monetary policy normalisation with a 25bps increase.

MTBPS charts better debt trajectory, but risks loom

Last updated: Nov 11 2021 5:16PM

Finance Minister Godongwana and his team have taken a pragmatic approach to the short-term fiscal revenue windfall against the overarching backdrop of a fiscal position that remains very challenging.

2021Q3 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Sep 10 2021 6:52AM

The survey results bode well for a continuation of the cyclical recovery in sentiment and activity, granted the disruptions in Q3 likely interrupted this recovery temporarily.

A faster, but still incomplete recovery

Last updated: Sep 7 2021 6:25PM

For the fourth quarter in a row, real GDP performed better than expected in 2021Q2. Even so, the recovery from the COVID-19 crash remains incomplete.

2021Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Jun 11 2021 6:50AM

The survey results support further upward adjustment to the GDP growth outlook in 2021, as illustrated in this presentation-style summary of the results.

Resilience through the second wave

Last updated: Jun 8 2021 4:16PM

Following the better-than-expected 2021Q1 GDP data, and assuming a light government touch on COVID-19 regulations, real GDP growth in 2021 could be closer to 4.5% than the 3.9% projected in April.

MPC unanimously holds policy rate at 3.5%, but flags upside price risks

Last updated: May 20 2021 5:54PM

While the MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate at 3.5% was in line with the previous (March) interest rate meeting, the tone of the statement was somewhat more hawkish.

A (slight) hawkish tilt as MPC votes 5-0 for unchanged repo rate

Last updated: Mar 25 2021 5:59PM

For the fourth meeting in a row, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.

2012Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Mar 11 2021 4:29PM

The survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data read more

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