BER Comment
In a close call, MPC cuts by 25bps
Last updated: Mar 28 2018 6:02PM
As widely expected, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.50% (prime rate at 10.00%).
2018Q1 Business survey results and main implications
Last updated: Mar 16 2018 10:01AM
The results foreshadow that we may already be in a cyclical upturn and bodes well for GDP growth from 2018 onwards. While overall GDP growth is likely to moderate in Q1, considering the survey results, this may not necessarily be the case for growth in GDP
read moreThe results foreshadow that we may already be in a cyclical upturn and bodes well for GDP growth from 2018 onwards. While overall GDP growth is likely to moderate in Q1, considering the survey results, this may not necessarily be the case for growth in GDP excluding the primary sector. Selling price indicators in the Q1 results are consistent with low consumer inflation and this should support sales volumes this year. Expected indicators for Q2 suggest contained VAT impact (at least initially).
Reflections on 25 Years of engagement with the land question in South Africa
Last updated: Mar 13 2018 3:17PM
This is BER Director Prof Johann Kirsten’s inaugural address as delivered on 21 November 2017
Budget starts to undo MTBPS damage
Last updated: Feb 21 2018 8:10PM
The Budget started to repair the fiscal credibility lost in October when the MTBPS shocked domestic financial markets and resulted in further sovereign credit rating downgrades.
Scale more definitively tilted on the positive side
Last updated: Feb 16 2018 8:04AM
The last number of weeks have seen significant developments on the domestic political front. Against that backdrop, this brief note explores how recent events are likely to impact the domestic economic landscape.
read moreThe last number of weeks have seen significant developments on the domestic political front. Against that backdrop, this brief note explores how recent events are likely to impact the domestic economic landscape.
Thinking about some narratives for 2018
Last updated: Nov 30 2017 5:34PM
Against the backdrop of unusual uncertainty, this note outlines three possible scenarios for 2018.
BER Business Surveys 2017Q4: Main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Nov 29 2017 2:31PM
Abstract: This presentation-style note summarises the fourth quarter business survey results. Given the many sentiment-negative factors, confidence remained low despite an improvement in the average activity indicator in Q4. Furthermore, albeit that activity
read moreAbstract: This presentation-style note summarises the fourth quarter business survey results. Given the many sentiment-negative factors, confidence remained low despite an improvement in the average activity indicator in Q4. Furthermore, albeit that activity improved, respondents reported increased pressure on profitability.
MPC keeps powder dry as new QPM model suggests next rate move is up
Last updated: Nov 23 2017 6:21PM
At its final scheduled meeting of 2017, the MPC kept the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate at 10.25%).
MTBPS: Political straightjacket delays any significant fiscal decisions
Last updated: Oct 26 2017 12:00PM
In his first, and potentially only, budget policy speech, Minister Gigaba presented an “honest” assessment of SA’s poor macroeconomic outlook and - in the absence of corrective measures - the dire consequences this will have for the fiscal balances.
read moreIn his first, and potentially only, budget policy speech, Minister Gigaba presented an “honest” assessment of SA’s poor macroeconomic outlook and - in the absence of corrective measures - the dire consequences this will have for the fiscal balances.
BER Business Surveys 2017Q3: Main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Sep 14 2017 1:33PM
This presentation-style note summarises the third quarter business survey results. While business confidence recovered partially, business conditions remained tough and underlying results signal very weak effective demand. The results are consistent with
read moreThis presentation-style note summarises the third quarter business survey results. While business confidence recovered partially, business conditions remained tough and underlying results signal very weak effective demand. The results are consistent with annual average GDP growth of below 1% for this year.