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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 16.32/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 15.62/litre  CPI January '21 = 3.2% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing January '21 = 3.5%  GDP growth Q4 = -0.6% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 7%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 32.5%  Retail sales December '20 = -1.3% y-o-y  Manufacturing output December '20 = 1.8% y-o-y 
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BER Comment

Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results.

Treasury sticks to their guns as revenue windfall provides a welcome reprieve

Last updated: Feb 25 2021 6:28AM

Notwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for. read more
Notwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for.


New report reflects on progress towards NDP objectives.

Last updated: Feb 18 2021 12:13PM

In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as read more
In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as short and concise a format as possible. This report shows progress in South Africa’s development in some areas, though outcomes have fallen short of the NDP’s aspirations in several key indicators. Strong corrective action is needed to achieve the targets of the NDP. Success will require a collective effort by all of society – government, the private sector, churches and NGOs – to realise these goals. With the Annual NDP Assessment Report, the BER and its network of collaborators hope to contribute to the accelerated, and ultimately successful, implementation of the NDP as we traverse the journey to 2030.


Same again as policy rate on hold in a 3-2 vote split

Last updated: Jan 21 2021 6:14PM

For the third meeting in a row, the SARB MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.


Epic Q3 GDP bounce after historic Q2 decline

Last updated: Dec 8 2020 3:45PM

Real GDP recovered by a blockbuster 66.1% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q3. Even so, the level of real GDP was still 5.3% below 2020Q1 (-5.8% relative to 2019Q4), i.e. we still have a long way to go before reaching the pre-COVID level of overall activity in the read more
Real GDP recovered by a blockbuster 66.1% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q3. Even so, the level of real GDP was still 5.3% below 2020Q1 (-5.8% relative to 2019Q4), i.e. we still have a long way to go before reaching the pre-COVID level of overall activity in the economy.


2020Q4 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Nov 25 2020 4:46PM

Going by the survey indicators, recovery momentum has not stalled in Q4. However, the indicators suggest that the production-side of the economy saw less of an improvement, with the consumer-linked sectors showing more recovery momentum. This raises concern read more
Going by the survey indicators, recovery momentum has not stalled in Q4. However, the indicators suggest that the production-side of the economy saw less of an improvement, with the consumer-linked sectors showing more recovery momentum. This raises concern regarding the sustainability of the upward movement/further recovery in confidence and activity indicators.


MPC remains on hold as fiscal risks (again) flagged

Last updated: Nov 19 2020 6:00PM

As in September, the MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% at the final policy meeting of the year.


The South African manufacturing PMI

Last updated: Nov 2 2020 10:12AM

This comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2020 release. A textbox provides read more
This comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2020 release. A textbox provides further information on how to interpret the PMI during South Africa’s lockdown and subsequent recovery. Finally, the comment provides some insight on the relationship between the PMI and official manufacturing production.


MTBPS loud on fiscal risks, but softens consolidation

Last updated: Oct 29 2020 8:54AM

With a mixed verdict on the credibility of the MTBPS and the non-trivial risk of a debt crisis within the next five years, the long-term cost of capital in SA is likely to remain elevated in the foreseeable future. read more
With a mixed verdict on the credibility of the MTBPS and the non-trivial risk of a debt crisis within the next five years, the long-term cost of capital in SA is likely to remain elevated in the foreseeable future.


MPC on hold for first time in 2020

Last updated: Sep 17 2020 5:43PM

After reducing the repo policy rate at each of the previous five interest rate meetings during 2020, the MPC kept the rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% at the latest meeting.


2020Q3 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Sep 10 2020 12:22PM

The survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller read more
The survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller year-on-year contraction in GDP during Q3.


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