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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 22.95/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 22.3/litre  CPI February '23 = 7% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing January '23 = 12.7%  GDP growth Q3 = 4% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 10.5%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 32.7%  Retail sales January '23 = -0.8% y-o-y  Manufacturing output January '23 = -3.7% y-o-y 
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BER Comment

Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures.

Real GDP largely reversed Q3 jump in 2022Q4

Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2023 4:45PM

Real GDP performed notably worse than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, declining by 1.3% q-o-q.


Special survey: Adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit

Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 3:45PM

To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their read more
To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit to buy something expensive. This comment summarises the results in PowerPoint format and also includes a link to a recording of the presentation.


Large Eskom support, some relief for households and firms

Date Uploaded: Feb 22 2023 7:00PM

As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt read more
As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt relief over the next three fiscal years, government’s borrowing requirement, overall debt and interest payments are now all projected to be higher than outlined in the October MTBPS.


SARB mandate change should be roundly dismissed

Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 11:00AM

In this comment, we outline why it is important to push back firmly against any efforts to undermine the SARB and its contribution to domestic macroeconomic stability.


In a close call, MPC pivots to a 25bps hike

Date Uploaded: Jan 26 2023 6:30PM

With a sharp deterioration in domestic real GDP growth forecasts and mixed prospects for inflation, the SARB MPC scaled down the pace of policy rate hikes to 25bps.


Real GDP surges back in 2022Q3

Date Uploaded: Dec 7 2022 7:15AM

Real GDP rose by a much faster-than-expected 1.6% q-o-q in 2022Q3 after the 0.7% quarterly contraction in Q2. In the first nine months of 2022, real GDP growth was 2.3% compared with the corresponding period in 2021. The implication is that even in the event read more
Real GDP rose by a much faster-than-expected 1.6% q-o-q in 2022Q3 after the 0.7% quarterly contraction in Q2. In the first nine months of 2022, real GDP growth was 2.3% compared with the corresponding period in 2021. The implication is that even in the event of a sizeable q-o-q contraction in Q4, real GDP growth will be 2% in 2022.


75bps again as growth and inflation risks pull in opposite directions

Date Uploaded: Nov 24 2022 6:45PM

At the November SARB MPC meeting, concerns (to the upside) on inflation trumped fears about the domestic growth outlook, resulting in a third consecutive policy rate hike of 75bps.


Factors limiting production – South Africa’s experience

Date Uploaded: Nov 8 2022 8:00AM

Like in almost all countries, there is a close relationship between aggregate supply and the business cycle in South Africa. However, the results of business tendency surveys (BTS) covering more than six decades indicate that the pandemic-induced lockdown read more
Like in almost all countries, there is a close relationship between aggregate supply and the business cycle in South Africa. However, the results of business tendency surveys (BTS) covering more than six decades indicate that the pandemic-induced lockdown affected supply beyond the usual business cycle parameters. The ratio of stocks to expected demand fell to its lowest level since 1980. The shortage of materials increased to the highest level ever. The availability of skilled labour has started hampering business activity in 2021, but its restraining impact is still noticeably less than during previous upturns. Sharp increases in input costs have begun to force firms to increase selling prices at a faster pace. Although selling prices are accelerating, their tempo of increase is still below that of 2002 and significantly below those of the high inflationary 1970s and 1980s.


Revenue overrun shields public finances, for now

Date Uploaded: Oct 27 2022 6:15AM

Although the credit rating agencies should welcome the improvement in the headline fiscal ratios outlined in the MTBPS, there may also be a sense that a year or two down the line, the figures are likely to look materially different. read more
Although the credit rating agencies should welcome the improvement in the headline fiscal ratios outlined in the MTBPS, there may also be a sense that a year or two down the line, the figures are likely to look materially different.


Back-to-back hikes of 75bps

Date Uploaded: Sep 22 2022 6:15PM

As widely expected, the SARB MPC announced a 75bps increase in the policy interest rate to 6.25%. The policy rate is now within striking distance of the 6.5% level at the end of 2019 before COVID-19 struck. At this stage, we expect a (final) 50bps increase in read more
As widely expected, the SARB MPC announced a 75bps increase in the policy interest rate to 6.25%. The policy rate is now within striking distance of the 6.5% level at the end of 2019 before COVID-19 struck. At this stage, we expect a (final) 50bps increase in November.


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