BER Comment
MTBPS loud on fiscal risks, but softens consolidation
Last updated: Oct 29 2020 8:54AM
With a mixed verdict on the credibility of the MTBPS and the non-trivial risk of a debt crisis within the next five years, the long-term cost of capital in SA is likely to remain elevated in the foreseeable future.
read moreWith a mixed verdict on the credibility of the MTBPS and the non-trivial risk of a debt crisis within the next five years, the long-term cost of capital in SA is likely to remain elevated in the foreseeable future.
MPC on hold for first time in 2020
Last updated: Sep 17 2020 5:43PM
After reducing the repo policy rate at each of the previous five interest rate meetings during 2020, the MPC kept the rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% at the latest meeting.
2020Q3 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Sep 10 2020 12:22PM
The survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller
read moreThe survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller year-on-year contraction in GDP during Q3.
Historic GDP decline in Q2 as lockdowns hurt
Last updated: Sep 8 2020 4:16PM
Real GDP plunged by a record 51% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q2. Compared with 2019Q2, real GDP declined by 17.2%, while the level of GDP was 8.7% lower in the first half of 2020 than in the corresponding period of 2019.
read moreReal GDP plunged by a record 51% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q2. Compared with 2019Q2, real GDP declined by 17.2%, while the level of GDP was 8.7% lower in the first half of 2020 than in the corresponding period of 2019.
MPC cuts by 25bps in a 3-2 vote split as the policy rate trough closes in
Last updated: Jul 23 2020 5:49PM
The MPC cut the repo rate by another 25bps to 3.50%, adding to the 275bps worth of easing already announced in 2020.
Q1 contraction highlights pre-COVID weakness
Last updated: Jun 30 2020 3:20PM
Real GDP suffered a third consecutive quarter of decline in 2020Q1, prolonging the second half of 2019 recession.
Prolonged fiscal slippage collides with COVID-19 crisis, causing severe damage to public finances
Last updated: Jun 25 2020 8:13AM
To a large extent, the supplementary COVID-19 budget was another exercise in kicking the fiscal can down the road.
2020Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Jun 10 2020 1:27PM
The lockdown measures that were taken to address the health emergency posed by COVID-19 severely impacted on already-weak business conditions. Activity collapse across sectors would agree with a severe contraction in GDP in the second quarter.
read moreThe lockdown measures that were taken to address the health emergency posed by COVID-19 severely impacted on already-weak business conditions. Activity collapse across sectors would agree with a severe contraction in GDP in the second quarter.
MPC cuts again, but vote split suggests bottom of rate cycle close
Last updated: May 21 2020 5:33PM
For the fourth time in 2020, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate, this time by 50bps.
Q&A on a phased approach to economic recovery
Last updated: Apr 24 2020 7:48AM
President Cyril Ramaphosa outlined the first steps towards slowly allowing selected (and risk-adjusted) economic activity to resume once the national lockdown ends on 30 April.