BER Comment
An aggressive hike with a hawkish statement
Last updated: Jul 21 2022 5:57PM
In a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle.
read moreIn a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle.
Upside surprise sees real GDP back to pre-pandemic level in Q1; shocks will hurt Q2
Last updated: Jun 7 2022 8:55PM
Real GDP growth handsomely outpaced expectations in 2022Q1. Despite a likely poor Q2 amid numerous shocks, this provides some comfort that growth could surpass 2% in 2022.
SARB ups the ante with a 50bps hike
Last updated: May 19 2022 5:45PM
The SARB’s MPC announced a 50bps increase in the repo rate, and again flagged upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook.
A hawkish hike of 25bps that could easily have swung to 50bps
Last updated: Mar 25 2022 6:49AM
The SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish.
read moreThe SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish.
Stress testing inflation
Last updated: Mar 10 2022 1:01PM
In this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation.
Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected.
read moreIn this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation.
Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected.
Incomplete Q4 GDP recovery, Russia invasion clouds outlook
Last updated: Mar 8 2022 6:29PM
After declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to
read moreAfter declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to the outlook.
Budget 2022: Short-term cheer but major fiscal hurdles remain
Last updated: Feb 24 2022 9:51PM
At first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget
read moreAt first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget statement to the next (this predates COVID-19), it is a challenge to be overly confident that the fiscal numbers will turn out as presented in the latest update. There are downside risks on both the revenue and expenditure side, in our view. For the most part, these are beyond 2022.
Another 25bps repo rate increase, with more in the offing
Last updated: Jan 27 2022 5:07PM
As widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and
read moreAs widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and given the other upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook, we have adjusted the interest rate view for another 75bps (three hikes of 25bps each in March, July and September) in the rest of 2022.
We have repo rate lift-off. Just
Last updated: Jan 6 2022 7:51AM
After the repo policy interest rate was kept unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% since July 2020, the SARB kicked off a process of monetary policy normalisation with a 25bps increase.
Third wave and unrest shock derail GDP recovery
Last updated: Dec 7 2021 6:09PM
Against the backdrop of several well documented domestic shocks, real GDP surprised on the downside with a decline of 1.5% q-o-q in Q3. Along with downward revisions to growth in the first half of 2021 and downside risks to Q4, the economy is now unlikely to
read moreAgainst the backdrop of several well documented domestic shocks, real GDP surprised on the downside with a decline of 1.5% q-o-q in Q3. Along with downward revisions to growth in the first half of 2021 and downside risks to Q4, the economy is now unlikely to grow by 5% in 2021. In a separate, more positive development, Parliamentarians today voted against amending the Constitution to allow for expropriation without compensation.