BER Comment
MPC holds repo rate steady, stresses vigilance amid inflation risks
Date Uploaded: Sep 21 2023 7:00PM
The SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% in a split vote. We continue to expect an unchanged policy rate through 2024Q1, with the first cut of 25bps pencilled in for May 2024.
Gangbuster green capex lifts growth in Q2 as imports remain firm
Date Uploaded: Sep 5 2023 5:00PM
At 0.6% q-o-q in 2023Q2, real GDP growth beat our above-consensus expectation of 0.5%. Mechanically adjusting the GDP outlook by keeping the same q-o-q momentum for the rest of the year as we had in July lifts the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%,
read moreAt 0.6% q-o-q in 2023Q2, real GDP growth beat our above-consensus expectation of 0.5%. Mechanically adjusting the GDP outlook by keeping the same q-o-q momentum for the rest of the year as we had in July lifts the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, from 0.4% projected in July.
On-hold policy rate signals end of tightening cycle
Date Uploaded: Jul 20 2023 5:45PM
After increasing the policy interest (repo) rate at every monetary policy meeting since November 2021, with cumulative hikes of 475bps, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged following the latest meeting. We now expect an extended pause, followed by the
read moreAfter increasing the policy interest (repo) rate at every monetary policy meeting since November 2021, with cumulative hikes of 475bps, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged following the latest meeting. We now expect an extended pause, followed by the start of a rate-cutting cycle in May 2024.
Unpacking recent load-shedding and electricity trends
Date Uploaded: Jul 11 2023 9:00AM
Eskom’s winter outlook warned about the risk that South Africans could experience up to stage 8 load-shedding if cold temperatures caused demand to spike or if there were plant breakdowns equivalent to more than 15 GW of capacity. The risk of higher stages of
read moreEskom’s winter outlook warned about the risk that South Africans could experience up to stage 8 load-shedding if cold temperatures caused demand to spike or if there were plant breakdowns equivalent to more than 15 GW of capacity. The risk of higher stages of load-shedding was heightened by the unavailability of key generation units at the Kusile, Medupi and Koeberg power stations during the winter months. However, in stark contrast to the dire warnings, there was a notably lower incidence of load-shedding in June relative to the preceding months. In this comment, we consider what drove this repriev
SA skirts recession, but near-term outlook subdued amid downside risks
Date Uploaded: Jun 6 2023 7:00PM
The stop-start nature of SA real GDP outcomes since the 2020 crash continued in early-2023, with real GDP increasing by 0.4% q-o-q after an (upwardly) revised 1.1% quarterly decline in 2022Q4.
A unanimous, hawkish 50bps hike
Date Uploaded: May 25 2023 9:15PM
In line with our (revised) forecast and the consensus view, the SARB MPC increased the repo policy interest rate by another 50bps, to 8.25%.
Multiparty coalitions in SA: Friend or Foe?
Date Uploaded: May 16 2023 3:00PM
As part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus
read moreAs part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus that although the ANC was likely to fall below 50% nationally, this was not inevitable. The second major takeaway was that the post-election political environment is likely to be even more volatile than in recent years.
MPC delivers 50bps, with monetary policy no longer accommodative
Date Uploaded: Mar 30 2023 6:45PM
In a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the
read moreIn a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the policy rate as the peak in the cycle.
Real GDP largely reversed Q3 jump in 2022Q4
Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2023 4:45PM
Real GDP performed notably worse than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, declining by 1.3% q-o-q.
Special survey: Adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit
Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 3:45PM
To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their
read moreTo better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit to buy something expensive. This comment summarises the results in PowerPoint format and also includes a link to a recording of the presentation.