BER Comment

Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results.

MPC cuts by 25bps in a 3-2 vote split as the policy rate trough closes in

Last updated: Jul 23 2020 5:49PM

The MPC cut the repo rate by another 25bps to 3.50%, adding to the 275bps worth of easing already announced in 2020.

Q1 contraction highlights pre-COVID weakness

Last updated: Jun 30 2020 3:20PM

Real GDP suffered a third consecutive quarter of decline in 2020Q1, prolonging the second half of 2019 recession.

Prolonged fiscal slippage collides with COVID-19 crisis, causing severe damage to public finances

Last updated: Jun 25 2020 8:13AM

To a large extent, the supplementary COVID-19 budget was another exercise in kicking the fiscal can down the road.

2020Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Jun 10 2020 1:27PM

The lockdown measures that were taken to address the health emergency posed by COVID-19 severely impacted on already-weak business conditions. Activity collapse across sectors would agree with a severe contraction in GDP in the second quarter. read more

MPC cuts again, but vote split suggests bottom of rate cycle close

Last updated: May 21 2020 5:33PM

For the fourth time in 2020, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate, this time by 50bps.

Q&A on a phased approach to economic recovery

Last updated: Apr 24 2020 7:48AM

President Cyril Ramaphosa outlined the first steps towards slowly allowing selected (and risk-adjusted) economic activity to resume once the national lockdown ends on 30 April.

A fiscal lifeline as survey reveals the virus cost

Last updated: Apr 22 2020 7:40AM

President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a desperately needed fiscal package to support the economy during the COVID-19 crisis.

MPC cuts aggressively again after extraordinary meeting

Last updated: Apr 14 2020 3:02PM

In a much needed and unanimous move, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100 basis points to 4.25% after an emergency interest rate meeting this weekend.

GDP locked up as historic decline looms

Last updated: Mar 25 2020 3:22PM

We currently see SA real GDP declining by a range of 2 to 4% in 2020, before recovering to post growth of 2.5 to 3% during 2021.

MPC joins coordinated global push to lower policy rates with an aggressive (and much needed) cut

Last updated: Mar 19 2020 7:48PM

In a responsive move that recognises the dramatic recent deterioration in the global and SA GDP outlook, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100bps to 5.25%.

BER Login Form

Research