BER Comment
2019Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Jun 13 2019 2:15PM
The 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price
read moreThe 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price and profitability indicators continue to indicate pressure on margins, implying that the probability of a cut in the repo rate at the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting in July has increased further.
Another Q1 GDP shocker erases hope of 1% growth in 2019
Last updated: Jun 4 2019 4:01PM
Real GDP declined by a much larger-than-expected 3.2% q-o-q (annualised) in 2019Q1. As a result, real GDP growth may turn out to be closer to 0.5% than 1% in 2019.
How South African business can contribute to sustainable land reform
Last updated: May 21 2019 10:34AM
Land reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to
read moreLand reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to urban and peri-urban land. This comment presents some guidelines and a framework to illustrate how the private sector and individuals can make a contribution to land reform.
MPC welcomes moderation of inflation expectations as repo rate kept on hold
Last updated: Mar 28 2019 5:29PM
As widely expected, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75%.
2019Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance
Last updated: Mar 13 2019 1:10PM
The pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019.
read moreThe pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019.
Space running out to counter unforeseen expenditure
Last updated: Feb 21 2019 9:02AM
In many ways, the 2019 Budget was a repeat of 2018 where a large, unexpected, expenditure item forced a reprioritisation of government spending, as well as tax increases.
Repo rate unchanged on notable inflation improvement
Last updated: Jan 17 2019 4:50PM
The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate at 10.25%).
GDP_2018Q3
Last updated: Dec 4 2018 1:51PM
The SA economy came out of the technical recession in 2018Q3. Stats SA reported that GDP expanded by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), annualised, a robust recovery from an upwardly revised 0.4% contraction in 2018Q2.
read moreThe SA economy came out of the technical recession in 2018Q3. Stats SA reported that GDP expanded by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), annualised, a robust recovery from an upwardly revised 0.4% contraction in 2018Q2.
Latest BER survey results: implications at a glance
Last updated: Nov 30 2018 9:42AM
The underlying survey results are consistent with a mild improvement in growth during the fourth quarter, even with the slight decline in the overall RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI). The BER expects that Q3 GDP (released 4 December) will register a
read moreThe underlying survey results are consistent with a mild improvement in growth during the fourth quarter, even with the slight decline in the overall RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI). The BER expects that Q3 GDP (released 4 December) will register a positive growth rate (on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised basis). According to the past relationship between the survey results and GDP growth, year-on-year growth is likely to remain relatively weak in the second half of 2018. We would need to see a sustained, broad-based increase in the BCI for economic growth to improve noticeably next year and beyond.
MTBPS: Concerning headline numbers, but with intent to shift to something more sustainable
Last updated: Oct 24 2018 6:44PM
Relative to the February Budget, the MTBPS revealed significant slippage on the fiscal consolidation with overall government debt now expected to stabilise just below 60% of GDP.