Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report (Archive) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 4 December 2023 Date Uploaded: Dec 4 2023 10:15AM Beyond the scheduled data releases, there was a lot to digest on the economic news front last week. Internationally, downward inflation surprises from the US and Eurozone spurred financial markets to expect sooner and deeper rate cuts by the major central read moreBeyond the scheduled data releases, there was a lot to digest on the economic news front last week. Internationally, downward inflation surprises from the US and Eurozone spurred financial markets to expect sooner and deeper rate cuts by the major central banks. Meanwhile, the delayed announcement by OPEC+ members of further production cuts failed to convince the market that this would result in a tighter demand/supply balance. On the domestic front, with the exception of the Absa PMI coming in slightly better than expected, the other activity releases generally missed the consensus forecasts. Developments around Transnet and Eskom also dominated the headlines. BER Weekly, 27 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 27 2023 8:00AM On Friday morning, Eskom announced Stage 6 load-shedding (reduced to stage 4 yesterday) after spending much of the week between Stages 2 and 4. In a media briefing, the Minister in the Presidency responsible for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said that read moreOn Friday morning, Eskom announced Stage 6 load-shedding (reduced to stage 4 yesterday) after spending much of the week between Stages 2 and 4. In a media briefing, the Minister in the Presidency responsible for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said that the intensification of power cuts was necessary after Eskom had run through its emergency reserves. The sudden increase in load-shedding is a reminder that uncertainty regarding energy availability remains a constraint to economic activity and business sentiment. Indeed, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index for 2023Q4 showed that already more businesses were pessimistic about the prevailing business environment than in 2023Q3. BER Weekly, 20 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 20 2023 7:15AM The big global economic story over the past week stemmed from the lower-than-expected US inflation print on Tuesday. The release solidified the markets’ view that we have reached the peak of the US rate hiking cycle. On the domestic data front, last week’s read moreThe big global economic story over the past week stemmed from the lower-than-expected US inflation print on Tuesday. The release solidified the markets’ view that we have reached the peak of the US rate hiking cycle. On the domestic data front, last week’s internal trade data provided more clarity on the economy’s performance in Q3. BER Weekly, 13 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 14 2023 8:30AM Last week's two domestic production data releases firmed up our view that SA economic growth slowed materially (if not stagnated) in Q3. High-frequency mining and manufacturing data both show a quarterly contraction in production relative to Q2. This is read moreLast week's two domestic production data releases firmed up our view that SA economic growth slowed materially (if not stagnated) in Q3. High-frequency mining and manufacturing data both show a quarterly contraction in production relative to Q2. This is despite load-shedding being somewhat less intense in Q3. The international economic news headlines were still largely dominated by monetary policy developments due to several high-profile speeches by policymakers. BER Weekly, 6 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 6 2023 7:30AM It was a bumper week on the local and international front. Domestically, the start of November brought the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) forum and a hefty petrol price decrease. In international read moreIt was a bumper week on the local and international front. Domestically, the start of November brought the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) forum and a hefty petrol price decrease. In international news, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate pause and the continued malaise of the Eurozone economy dominated financial headlines. BER Weekly, 30 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 30 2023 7:00AM It is a bumper week ahead on the economic data and policy front. Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unchanged policy interest rate decision last week, the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), US Fed (Wednesday), and Bank of England (Thursday) hold monetary read moreIt is a bumper week ahead on the economic data and policy front. Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unchanged policy interest rate decision last week, the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), US Fed (Wednesday), and Bank of England (Thursday) hold monetary policy meetings this week. The domestic attention will turn to the fiscal statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday where, relative to the projections in February, a higher budget balance and debt trajectory is expected. BER Weekly, 23 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 23 2023 6:30AM Oil and gold prices remained on the front foot last week as the war between Israel and Hamas remained top of mind. In domestic data releases, the headline CPI inflation rate for September accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y amid sharp fuel price hikes. There will be read moreOil and gold prices remained on the front foot last week as the war between Israel and Hamas remained top of mind. In domestic data releases, the headline CPI inflation rate for September accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y amid sharp fuel price hikes. There will be more SA inflation news this week when the September PPI data is released on Thursday. Globally, the key focus is on the first estimate of US Q3 GDP growth and the ECB’s latest policy interest rate decision. BER Weekly, 16 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 16 2023 7:30AM Global financial markets were impacted last week by the outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian military group Hamas. This pushed up oil and precious metal prices, while global bond yields took a breather after recent sharp gains. The domestic read moreGlobal financial markets were impacted last week by the outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian military group Hamas. This pushed up oil and precious metal prices, while global bond yields took a breather after recent sharp gains. The domestic focus this week will be on the CPI inflation data for September. Sharp fuel price hikes are set to push the annual rate for headline CPI up notably towards 5.5%. BER Weekly, 9 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 9 2023 7:00AM Domestic financial markets remained on the back foot last week, with the JSE Alsi, the SA bond market and the rand all under (further) pressure. Dramatic events over the weekend when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in read moreDomestic financial markets remained on the back foot last week, with the JSE Alsi, the SA bond market and the rand all under (further) pressure. Dramatic events over the weekend when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in decades saw the oil price trade almost 4% higher this morning. Besides investor attention on the fallout of the weekend events, this week’s focus will be on US inflation data for September and SA industrial output for August. BER Weekly, 2 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 2 2023 7:00AM There was a lot to digest last week, including the impact of a worsening bird flu outbreak in SA and the sudden resignation of embattled Transnet CEO Portia Derby. There was also some better news from Eskom. This week’s focus is on the first batch of SA read moreThere was a lot to digest last week, including the impact of a worsening bird flu outbreak in SA and the sudden resignation of embattled Transnet CEO Portia Derby. There was also some better news from Eskom. This week’s focus is on the first batch of SA activity data for September, as well as US job numbers on Friday. BER Weekly, 26 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 26 2023 8:00AM Central bankers in the US, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and SA opted to keep policy interest rates on hold last week. Increasingly, across the Atlantic, there is a view amongst monetary policymakers that the time has come to sit back and allow previous read moreCentral bankers in the US, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and SA opted to keep policy interest rates on hold last week. Increasingly, across the Atlantic, there is a view amongst monetary policymakers that the time has come to sit back and allow previous tightening to work through the economy. After the deluge of central bank meetings last week, the attention shifts back to the data this week. In SA, this includes the Quarterly Employment Stats for Q2 and the fiscal revenue/expenditure figures for August. BER Weekly, 18 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 18 2023 7:00AM SA industrial production data for July added more credibility to our view that SA quarterly real GDP growth will slow materially in Q3. This week has a heavy central bank theme, with the US Fed and the SARB set to keep policy interest rates on hold, while the read moreSA industrial production data for July added more credibility to our view that SA quarterly real GDP growth will slow materially in Q3. This week has a heavy central bank theme, with the US Fed and the SARB set to keep policy interest rates on hold, while the BoE is projected to hike by another 25bps. BER Weekly, 11 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 11 2023 7:00AM The domestic economic data released last week was fairly constructive, with real GDP growth in 2023Q2 coming in better than expected and Q3 BER survey data showing some lift in confidence. However, we continue to expect that GDP growth cooled in Q3. This read moreThe domestic economic data released last week was fairly constructive, with real GDP growth in 2023Q2 coming in better than expected and Q3 BER survey data showing some lift in confidence. However, we continue to expect that GDP growth cooled in Q3. This week’s highlights include a likely acceleration in US consumer inflation and an on-hold policy rate decision from the ECB. BER Weekly, 4 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 4 2023 7:00AM Domestically, the key take aways from last week were that restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on interest rate sensitive consumer spending. In addition, the local fiscal situation is of increasing concern as tax revenue undershoots and government read moreDomestically, the key take aways from last week were that restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on interest rate sensitive consumer spending. In addition, the local fiscal situation is of increasing concern as tax revenue undershoots and government spending exceeds earlier expectations. This week’s SA data highlight is tomorrow’s 2023Q2 real GDP figures, which we expect to show an increase of 0.5% q-o-q. BER Weekly, 28 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 28 2023 7:00AM The biggest news from the BRICS summit was the addition of six new members, with the inclusion of major oil producer Saudi Arabia the most notable. In domestic data developments, there was a welcome further easing in headline and core CPI. This week is read moreThe biggest news from the BRICS summit was the addition of six new members, with the inclusion of major oil producer Saudi Arabia the most notable. In domestic data developments, there was a welcome further easing in headline and core CPI. This week is jam-packed with end-of-month data releases in SA, while in the US the focus is on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the latest monthly job numbers. BER Weekly, 21 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 21 2023 7:30AM There will be plenty of news to digest this week. This includes the release of the July SA CPI inflation data, SA hosting the BRICS summit, and global central bank talk at the annual Jackson Hole conference in the US. read moreThere will be plenty of news to digest this week. This includes the release of the July SA CPI inflation data, SA hosting the BRICS summit, and global central bank talk at the annual Jackson Hole conference in the US. BER Weekly, 14 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 14 2023 7:30AM Following mixed news on the international and domestic economy last week, this week’s domestic focus will be on the release of Q2 employment stats and internal trade data for June. BER Weekly, 7 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 7 2023 7:30AM After positive investor sentiment boosted global and local financial markets the previous week, the opposite was true last week as the rand and the JSE came under pressure. This week, the domestic data will help to firm up estimates for 2023Q2 real GDP read moreAfter positive investor sentiment boosted global and local financial markets the previous week, the opposite was true last week as the rand and the JSE came under pressure. This week, the domestic data will help to firm up estimates for 2023Q2 real GDP growth, with mining and manufacturing production numbers released on Thursday. With investors on edge across the globe, the international focus will be on July inflation prints from the US and to a lesser extent also China. BER Weekly, 31 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 31 2023 7:30AM Both in SA and the US, data released last week showed a welcome easing in key inflation gauges. This was against a backdrop where optimism grew that both the US Fed and the ECB may have ended their aggressive rate-hiking cycles. Moving to this week, the focus read moreBoth in SA and the US, data released last week showed a welcome easing in key inflation gauges. This was against a backdrop where optimism grew that both the US Fed and the ECB may have ended their aggressive rate-hiking cycles. Moving to this week, the focus will be on the first set of SA activity data for 2023Q3, as well as the release of the all-important US monthly job figures on Friday. BER Weekly, 24 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 24 2023 7:30AM Last week’s domestic and global developments gave mixed signals for the domestic economy, especially regarding the inflation outlook. Domestically, the focus this week will be on the June PPI inflation numbers and Treasury’s revenue and expenditure numbers. read moreLast week’s domestic and global developments gave mixed signals for the domestic economy, especially regarding the inflation outlook. Domestically, the focus this week will be on the June PPI inflation numbers and Treasury’s revenue and expenditure numbers. There is more to digest on the international economic calendar with looming monetary policy decisions by the US Fed, the ECB and the BoJ. BER Weekly, 17 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 17 2023 7:00AM After a relative reprieve from adverse domestic developments in June, last week’s news flow deteriorated rapidly. On a much more cheerful note, domestic financial markets shrugged off the adverse local news and were swept along by an aggressive global read moreAfter a relative reprieve from adverse domestic developments in June, last week’s news flow deteriorated rapidly. On a much more cheerful note, domestic financial markets shrugged off the adverse local news and were swept along by an aggressive global risk-on/relief rally. BER Weekly, 10 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 10 2023 7:30AM Both sets of SA PMIs indicated that the power cut reprieve during the month was unable to spark activity. A softening in underlying demand conditions seems to have counteracted the increased ability to produce. Financial markets had another rollercoaster week read moreBoth sets of SA PMIs indicated that the power cut reprieve during the month was unable to spark activity. A softening in underlying demand conditions seems to have counteracted the increased ability to produce. Financial markets had another rollercoaster week as starkly diverging US labour market reports played havoc with market pricing of where the US policy interest rate could peak. BER Weekly, 3 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 3 2023 7:30AM On the domestic data front, poor employment figures for Q1 and worsening consumer sentiment in Q2 underscored the current weakness of the SA economy. In financial markets, major international bourses, and the JSE ALSI, increased last week. Still, the rand read moreOn the domestic data front, poor employment figures for Q1 and worsening consumer sentiment in Q2 underscored the current weakness of the SA economy. In financial markets, major international bourses, and the JSE ALSI, increased last week. Still, the rand lost ground against the dollar for the second consecutive week and briefly traded weaker than R19/$ on Friday. BER Weekly, 26 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 26 2023 7:30AM Last week’s global narrative was driven by concerns about stubborn inflationary pressure, likely requiring further interest rate increases, at a time of slowing economic growth. This weighed heavily on global stock markets. In local economic developments, read moreLast week’s global narrative was driven by concerns about stubborn inflationary pressure, likely requiring further interest rate increases, at a time of slowing economic growth. This weighed heavily on global stock markets. In local economic developments, consumer inflation data came in slightly lower than expected and cooled to a 13-month low. BER Weekly, 19 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 19 2023 7:30AM Last week’s global news was dominated by central bank decisions. Meanwhile, local attention was on high-frequency data released by Stats SA, the passing of the NHI bill by the National Assembly as well as the wage settlement reached at Eskom. read moreLast week’s global news was dominated by central bank decisions. Meanwhile, local attention was on high-frequency data released by Stats SA, the passing of the NHI bill by the National Assembly as well as the wage settlement reached at Eskom. BER Weekly, 12 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 12 2023 7:30AM There was some reprieve from all-out bad domestic news last week as the rand recouped recent sharp losses. Investor sentiment towards SA was supported by an easing in the intensity of load-shedding and confirmation that SA dodged a technical recession in read moreThere was some reprieve from all-out bad domestic news last week as the rand recouped recent sharp losses. Investor sentiment towards SA was supported by an easing in the intensity of load-shedding and confirmation that SA dodged a technical recession in 2023Q1. BER Weekly, 5 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 5 2023 7:30AM The SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. read moreThe SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. BER Weekly, 29 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 29 2023 7:30AM On the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate read moreOn the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate remained under pressure and weakened to a fresh record low against the US dollar towards the end of the week. BER Weekly, 22 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 22 2023 7:30AM After being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the read moreAfter being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the pressure on the local currency. BER Weekly, 15 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 15 2023 7:30AM It was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already read moreIt was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already under tremendous pressure ahead of this announcement late on Thursday. BER Weekly, 8 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 8 2023 7:45AM In a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of central bank decisions as both the US central bank (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) met expectations with 25bps policy interest rate hikes. BER Weekly, 24 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 24 2023 7:30AM The most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a read moreThe most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a quarterly expansion in the sector in Q1. The real GDP growth outlook for Q2, however, is rapidly deteriorating as load-shedding continued at high levels through the week. Amidst already intense load-shedding, the first round of wage talks for 2023/24 took place at Eskom. BER Weekly, 17 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 17 2023 7:30AM Following a reprieve in the intensity of load-shedding during prior weeks, power cuts were back in full force last week, denting the prospects for economic activity at the start of the second quarter. BER Weekly, 3 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 3 2023 7:30AM The biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a read moreThe biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bps. The international focus was on consumer price inflation data. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation was released on Friday. Following an unexpected uptick the month before, price pressures cooled in February. For the Eurozone, a preliminary estimate of its consumer price index (CPI) for March reflected a slowdown in headline inflation. BER Weekly, 27 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 27 2023 7:15AM In a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI read moreIn a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI inflation print and another increase in government’s salary hike offer to public sector workers. Besides the domestic developments, local (and global) financial markets continued to be heavily impacted by the news flow on the banking troubles in parts of the world. The much-anticipated US Federal Reserve policy interest rate decision, as well as an update of the Fed’s rate-setting committee’s interest rate expectations, also influenced market sentiment. BER Weekly, 17 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 17 2023 9:30AM The collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock read moreThe collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock and bond markets continued to experience wild swings after Switzerland’s second-largest bank Credit Suisse, which has been rocked by several scandals in recent years and was already under pressure before the collapse of SVB, suffered further losses amid contagion from the US banking concerns and an adverse auditor report. Developments over the past week also potentially upended major central banks’ monetary policy guidance and sent monetary authorities back to the drawing board. BER Weekly, 13 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 13 2023 7:30AM There was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later read moreThere was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later in the week when 1) Stats SA reported that real GDP contracted three times more than the market expectation in 2022Q4 and 2) amid concerns about the future growth implications of the worsening power situation and other infrastructure bottlenecks (rail and ports in particular), credit ratings agency S&P Global cut the outlook on SA’s BB- sovereign credit rating to stable from positive. BER Weekly, 6 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 7:30AM Last week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by read moreLast week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The local data releases painted a mixed picture of activity and trade dynamics in early 2023. Globally, last week’s data releases can be broadly summarised in two themes. One theme is stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone (EZ) and the US. The other theme stems from the seemingly much quicker-than-anticipated rebound in the Chinese economy after the end of the zero-COVID policy. BER Weekly, 27 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 27 2023 7:45AM It was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental read moreIt was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental body that sets international standards aimed at preventing global money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) activities, added SA to a list of countries under increased monitoring for failing to meet certain standards in combating ML/TF. BER Weekly, 20 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 20 2023 10:15AM The key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the read moreThe key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the upside, markets pushed up their expectations of the terminal policy interest rate. Expectations of a higher terminal rate led to a stronger dollar, which filtered through to commodity markets and affected investor appetite for riskier SA assets. BER Weekly, 13 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 13 2023 7:30AM In a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA read moreIn a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA financial markets about the worsening power crisis. BER Weekly, 6 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 7:30AM Global financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global read moreGlobal financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global stock markets rose through most of the week as traders/investors had a dovish interpretation of the guidance on the interest rate trajectory. On the local front, the first data releases for January came out last week, including the Absa PMI and naamsa new vehicle sales figures. BER Weekly, 30 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 30 2023 7:45AM The ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP read moreThe ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP growth forecast for the next three years. BER Weekly, 23 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 23 2023 7:45AM Last week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did read moreLast week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did better than expected in November and the internal trade sector as a whole may add positively to Q4 GDP growth. There were also two key inflation-related releases last week. BER Weekly 16 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 7:45AM Barely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand read moreBarely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand is set to pick up as economic activity returns following the December break.
(Archive) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 4 December 2023 Date Uploaded: Dec 4 2023 10:15AM Beyond the scheduled data releases, there was a lot to digest on the economic news front last week. Internationally, downward inflation surprises from the US and Eurozone spurred financial markets to expect sooner and deeper rate cuts by the major central read moreBeyond the scheduled data releases, there was a lot to digest on the economic news front last week. Internationally, downward inflation surprises from the US and Eurozone spurred financial markets to expect sooner and deeper rate cuts by the major central banks. Meanwhile, the delayed announcement by OPEC+ members of further production cuts failed to convince the market that this would result in a tighter demand/supply balance. On the domestic front, with the exception of the Absa PMI coming in slightly better than expected, the other activity releases generally missed the consensus forecasts. Developments around Transnet and Eskom also dominated the headlines. BER Weekly, 27 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 27 2023 8:00AM On Friday morning, Eskom announced Stage 6 load-shedding (reduced to stage 4 yesterday) after spending much of the week between Stages 2 and 4. In a media briefing, the Minister in the Presidency responsible for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said that read moreOn Friday morning, Eskom announced Stage 6 load-shedding (reduced to stage 4 yesterday) after spending much of the week between Stages 2 and 4. In a media briefing, the Minister in the Presidency responsible for Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, said that the intensification of power cuts was necessary after Eskom had run through its emergency reserves. The sudden increase in load-shedding is a reminder that uncertainty regarding energy availability remains a constraint to economic activity and business sentiment. Indeed, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index for 2023Q4 showed that already more businesses were pessimistic about the prevailing business environment than in 2023Q3. BER Weekly, 20 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 20 2023 7:15AM The big global economic story over the past week stemmed from the lower-than-expected US inflation print on Tuesday. The release solidified the markets’ view that we have reached the peak of the US rate hiking cycle. On the domestic data front, last week’s read moreThe big global economic story over the past week stemmed from the lower-than-expected US inflation print on Tuesday. The release solidified the markets’ view that we have reached the peak of the US rate hiking cycle. On the domestic data front, last week’s internal trade data provided more clarity on the economy’s performance in Q3. BER Weekly, 13 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 14 2023 8:30AM Last week's two domestic production data releases firmed up our view that SA economic growth slowed materially (if not stagnated) in Q3. High-frequency mining and manufacturing data both show a quarterly contraction in production relative to Q2. This is read moreLast week's two domestic production data releases firmed up our view that SA economic growth slowed materially (if not stagnated) in Q3. High-frequency mining and manufacturing data both show a quarterly contraction in production relative to Q2. This is despite load-shedding being somewhat less intense in Q3. The international economic news headlines were still largely dominated by monetary policy developments due to several high-profile speeches by policymakers. BER Weekly, 6 November 2023 Date Uploaded: Nov 6 2023 7:30AM It was a bumper week on the local and international front. Domestically, the start of November brought the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) forum and a hefty petrol price decrease. In international read moreIt was a bumper week on the local and international front. Domestically, the start of November brought the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) forum and a hefty petrol price decrease. In international news, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate pause and the continued malaise of the Eurozone economy dominated financial headlines. BER Weekly, 30 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 30 2023 7:00AM It is a bumper week ahead on the economic data and policy front. Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unchanged policy interest rate decision last week, the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), US Fed (Wednesday), and Bank of England (Thursday) hold monetary read moreIt is a bumper week ahead on the economic data and policy front. Following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unchanged policy interest rate decision last week, the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), US Fed (Wednesday), and Bank of England (Thursday) hold monetary policy meetings this week. The domestic attention will turn to the fiscal statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday where, relative to the projections in February, a higher budget balance and debt trajectory is expected. BER Weekly, 23 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 23 2023 6:30AM Oil and gold prices remained on the front foot last week as the war between Israel and Hamas remained top of mind. In domestic data releases, the headline CPI inflation rate for September accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y amid sharp fuel price hikes. There will be read moreOil and gold prices remained on the front foot last week as the war between Israel and Hamas remained top of mind. In domestic data releases, the headline CPI inflation rate for September accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y amid sharp fuel price hikes. There will be more SA inflation news this week when the September PPI data is released on Thursday. Globally, the key focus is on the first estimate of US Q3 GDP growth and the ECB’s latest policy interest rate decision. BER Weekly, 16 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 16 2023 7:30AM Global financial markets were impacted last week by the outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian military group Hamas. This pushed up oil and precious metal prices, while global bond yields took a breather after recent sharp gains. The domestic read moreGlobal financial markets were impacted last week by the outbreak of war between Israel and the Palestinian military group Hamas. This pushed up oil and precious metal prices, while global bond yields took a breather after recent sharp gains. The domestic focus this week will be on the CPI inflation data for September. Sharp fuel price hikes are set to push the annual rate for headline CPI up notably towards 5.5%. BER Weekly, 9 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 9 2023 7:00AM Domestic financial markets remained on the back foot last week, with the JSE Alsi, the SA bond market and the rand all under (further) pressure. Dramatic events over the weekend when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in read moreDomestic financial markets remained on the back foot last week, with the JSE Alsi, the SA bond market and the rand all under (further) pressure. Dramatic events over the weekend when Palestinian militant group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in decades saw the oil price trade almost 4% higher this morning. Besides investor attention on the fallout of the weekend events, this week’s focus will be on US inflation data for September and SA industrial output for August. BER Weekly, 2 October 2023 Date Uploaded: Oct 2 2023 7:00AM There was a lot to digest last week, including the impact of a worsening bird flu outbreak in SA and the sudden resignation of embattled Transnet CEO Portia Derby. There was also some better news from Eskom. This week’s focus is on the first batch of SA read moreThere was a lot to digest last week, including the impact of a worsening bird flu outbreak in SA and the sudden resignation of embattled Transnet CEO Portia Derby. There was also some better news from Eskom. This week’s focus is on the first batch of SA activity data for September, as well as US job numbers on Friday. BER Weekly, 26 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 26 2023 8:00AM Central bankers in the US, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and SA opted to keep policy interest rates on hold last week. Increasingly, across the Atlantic, there is a view amongst monetary policymakers that the time has come to sit back and allow previous read moreCentral bankers in the US, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and SA opted to keep policy interest rates on hold last week. Increasingly, across the Atlantic, there is a view amongst monetary policymakers that the time has come to sit back and allow previous tightening to work through the economy. After the deluge of central bank meetings last week, the attention shifts back to the data this week. In SA, this includes the Quarterly Employment Stats for Q2 and the fiscal revenue/expenditure figures for August. BER Weekly, 18 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 18 2023 7:00AM SA industrial production data for July added more credibility to our view that SA quarterly real GDP growth will slow materially in Q3. This week has a heavy central bank theme, with the US Fed and the SARB set to keep policy interest rates on hold, while the read moreSA industrial production data for July added more credibility to our view that SA quarterly real GDP growth will slow materially in Q3. This week has a heavy central bank theme, with the US Fed and the SARB set to keep policy interest rates on hold, while the BoE is projected to hike by another 25bps. BER Weekly, 11 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 11 2023 7:00AM The domestic economic data released last week was fairly constructive, with real GDP growth in 2023Q2 coming in better than expected and Q3 BER survey data showing some lift in confidence. However, we continue to expect that GDP growth cooled in Q3. This read moreThe domestic economic data released last week was fairly constructive, with real GDP growth in 2023Q2 coming in better than expected and Q3 BER survey data showing some lift in confidence. However, we continue to expect that GDP growth cooled in Q3. This week’s highlights include a likely acceleration in US consumer inflation and an on-hold policy rate decision from the ECB. BER Weekly, 4 September 2023 Date Uploaded: Sep 4 2023 7:00AM Domestically, the key take aways from last week were that restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on interest rate sensitive consumer spending. In addition, the local fiscal situation is of increasing concern as tax revenue undershoots and government read moreDomestically, the key take aways from last week were that restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on interest rate sensitive consumer spending. In addition, the local fiscal situation is of increasing concern as tax revenue undershoots and government spending exceeds earlier expectations. This week’s SA data highlight is tomorrow’s 2023Q2 real GDP figures, which we expect to show an increase of 0.5% q-o-q. BER Weekly, 28 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 28 2023 7:00AM The biggest news from the BRICS summit was the addition of six new members, with the inclusion of major oil producer Saudi Arabia the most notable. In domestic data developments, there was a welcome further easing in headline and core CPI. This week is read moreThe biggest news from the BRICS summit was the addition of six new members, with the inclusion of major oil producer Saudi Arabia the most notable. In domestic data developments, there was a welcome further easing in headline and core CPI. This week is jam-packed with end-of-month data releases in SA, while in the US the focus is on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the latest monthly job numbers. BER Weekly, 21 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 21 2023 7:30AM There will be plenty of news to digest this week. This includes the release of the July SA CPI inflation data, SA hosting the BRICS summit, and global central bank talk at the annual Jackson Hole conference in the US. read moreThere will be plenty of news to digest this week. This includes the release of the July SA CPI inflation data, SA hosting the BRICS summit, and global central bank talk at the annual Jackson Hole conference in the US. BER Weekly, 14 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 14 2023 7:30AM Following mixed news on the international and domestic economy last week, this week’s domestic focus will be on the release of Q2 employment stats and internal trade data for June. BER Weekly, 7 August 2023 Date Uploaded: Aug 7 2023 7:30AM After positive investor sentiment boosted global and local financial markets the previous week, the opposite was true last week as the rand and the JSE came under pressure. This week, the domestic data will help to firm up estimates for 2023Q2 real GDP read moreAfter positive investor sentiment boosted global and local financial markets the previous week, the opposite was true last week as the rand and the JSE came under pressure. This week, the domestic data will help to firm up estimates for 2023Q2 real GDP growth, with mining and manufacturing production numbers released on Thursday. With investors on edge across the globe, the international focus will be on July inflation prints from the US and to a lesser extent also China. BER Weekly, 31 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 31 2023 7:30AM Both in SA and the US, data released last week showed a welcome easing in key inflation gauges. This was against a backdrop where optimism grew that both the US Fed and the ECB may have ended their aggressive rate-hiking cycles. Moving to this week, the focus read moreBoth in SA and the US, data released last week showed a welcome easing in key inflation gauges. This was against a backdrop where optimism grew that both the US Fed and the ECB may have ended their aggressive rate-hiking cycles. Moving to this week, the focus will be on the first set of SA activity data for 2023Q3, as well as the release of the all-important US monthly job figures on Friday. BER Weekly, 24 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 24 2023 7:30AM Last week’s domestic and global developments gave mixed signals for the domestic economy, especially regarding the inflation outlook. Domestically, the focus this week will be on the June PPI inflation numbers and Treasury’s revenue and expenditure numbers. read moreLast week’s domestic and global developments gave mixed signals for the domestic economy, especially regarding the inflation outlook. Domestically, the focus this week will be on the June PPI inflation numbers and Treasury’s revenue and expenditure numbers. There is more to digest on the international economic calendar with looming monetary policy decisions by the US Fed, the ECB and the BoJ. BER Weekly, 17 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 17 2023 7:00AM After a relative reprieve from adverse domestic developments in June, last week’s news flow deteriorated rapidly. On a much more cheerful note, domestic financial markets shrugged off the adverse local news and were swept along by an aggressive global read moreAfter a relative reprieve from adverse domestic developments in June, last week’s news flow deteriorated rapidly. On a much more cheerful note, domestic financial markets shrugged off the adverse local news and were swept along by an aggressive global risk-on/relief rally. BER Weekly, 10 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 10 2023 7:30AM Both sets of SA PMIs indicated that the power cut reprieve during the month was unable to spark activity. A softening in underlying demand conditions seems to have counteracted the increased ability to produce. Financial markets had another rollercoaster week read moreBoth sets of SA PMIs indicated that the power cut reprieve during the month was unable to spark activity. A softening in underlying demand conditions seems to have counteracted the increased ability to produce. Financial markets had another rollercoaster week as starkly diverging US labour market reports played havoc with market pricing of where the US policy interest rate could peak. BER Weekly, 3 July 2023 Date Uploaded: Jul 3 2023 7:30AM On the domestic data front, poor employment figures for Q1 and worsening consumer sentiment in Q2 underscored the current weakness of the SA economy. In financial markets, major international bourses, and the JSE ALSI, increased last week. Still, the rand read moreOn the domestic data front, poor employment figures for Q1 and worsening consumer sentiment in Q2 underscored the current weakness of the SA economy. In financial markets, major international bourses, and the JSE ALSI, increased last week. Still, the rand lost ground against the dollar for the second consecutive week and briefly traded weaker than R19/$ on Friday. BER Weekly, 26 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 26 2023 7:30AM Last week’s global narrative was driven by concerns about stubborn inflationary pressure, likely requiring further interest rate increases, at a time of slowing economic growth. This weighed heavily on global stock markets. In local economic developments, read moreLast week’s global narrative was driven by concerns about stubborn inflationary pressure, likely requiring further interest rate increases, at a time of slowing economic growth. This weighed heavily on global stock markets. In local economic developments, consumer inflation data came in slightly lower than expected and cooled to a 13-month low. BER Weekly, 19 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 19 2023 7:30AM Last week’s global news was dominated by central bank decisions. Meanwhile, local attention was on high-frequency data released by Stats SA, the passing of the NHI bill by the National Assembly as well as the wage settlement reached at Eskom. read moreLast week’s global news was dominated by central bank decisions. Meanwhile, local attention was on high-frequency data released by Stats SA, the passing of the NHI bill by the National Assembly as well as the wage settlement reached at Eskom. BER Weekly, 12 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 12 2023 7:30AM There was some reprieve from all-out bad domestic news last week as the rand recouped recent sharp losses. Investor sentiment towards SA was supported by an easing in the intensity of load-shedding and confirmation that SA dodged a technical recession in read moreThere was some reprieve from all-out bad domestic news last week as the rand recouped recent sharp losses. Investor sentiment towards SA was supported by an easing in the intensity of load-shedding and confirmation that SA dodged a technical recession in 2023Q1. BER Weekly, 5 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 5 2023 7:30AM The SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. read moreThe SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. BER Weekly, 29 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 29 2023 7:30AM On the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate read moreOn the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate remained under pressure and weakened to a fresh record low against the US dollar towards the end of the week. BER Weekly, 22 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 22 2023 7:30AM After being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the read moreAfter being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the pressure on the local currency. BER Weekly, 15 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 15 2023 7:30AM It was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already read moreIt was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already under tremendous pressure ahead of this announcement late on Thursday. BER Weekly, 8 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 8 2023 7:45AM In a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of central bank decisions as both the US central bank (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) met expectations with 25bps policy interest rate hikes. BER Weekly, 24 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 24 2023 7:30AM The most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a read moreThe most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a quarterly expansion in the sector in Q1. The real GDP growth outlook for Q2, however, is rapidly deteriorating as load-shedding continued at high levels through the week. Amidst already intense load-shedding, the first round of wage talks for 2023/24 took place at Eskom. BER Weekly, 17 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 17 2023 7:30AM Following a reprieve in the intensity of load-shedding during prior weeks, power cuts were back in full force last week, denting the prospects for economic activity at the start of the second quarter. BER Weekly, 3 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 3 2023 7:30AM The biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a read moreThe biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bps. The international focus was on consumer price inflation data. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation was released on Friday. Following an unexpected uptick the month before, price pressures cooled in February. For the Eurozone, a preliminary estimate of its consumer price index (CPI) for March reflected a slowdown in headline inflation. BER Weekly, 27 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 27 2023 7:15AM In a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI read moreIn a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI inflation print and another increase in government’s salary hike offer to public sector workers. Besides the domestic developments, local (and global) financial markets continued to be heavily impacted by the news flow on the banking troubles in parts of the world. The much-anticipated US Federal Reserve policy interest rate decision, as well as an update of the Fed’s rate-setting committee’s interest rate expectations, also influenced market sentiment. BER Weekly, 17 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 17 2023 9:30AM The collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock read moreThe collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock and bond markets continued to experience wild swings after Switzerland’s second-largest bank Credit Suisse, which has been rocked by several scandals in recent years and was already under pressure before the collapse of SVB, suffered further losses amid contagion from the US banking concerns and an adverse auditor report. Developments over the past week also potentially upended major central banks’ monetary policy guidance and sent monetary authorities back to the drawing board. BER Weekly, 13 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 13 2023 7:30AM There was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later read moreThere was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later in the week when 1) Stats SA reported that real GDP contracted three times more than the market expectation in 2022Q4 and 2) amid concerns about the future growth implications of the worsening power situation and other infrastructure bottlenecks (rail and ports in particular), credit ratings agency S&P Global cut the outlook on SA’s BB- sovereign credit rating to stable from positive. BER Weekly, 6 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 7:30AM Last week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by read moreLast week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The local data releases painted a mixed picture of activity and trade dynamics in early 2023. Globally, last week’s data releases can be broadly summarised in two themes. One theme is stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone (EZ) and the US. The other theme stems from the seemingly much quicker-than-anticipated rebound in the Chinese economy after the end of the zero-COVID policy. BER Weekly, 27 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 27 2023 7:45AM It was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental read moreIt was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental body that sets international standards aimed at preventing global money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) activities, added SA to a list of countries under increased monitoring for failing to meet certain standards in combating ML/TF. BER Weekly, 20 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 20 2023 10:15AM The key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the read moreThe key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the upside, markets pushed up their expectations of the terminal policy interest rate. Expectations of a higher terminal rate led to a stronger dollar, which filtered through to commodity markets and affected investor appetite for riskier SA assets. BER Weekly, 13 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 13 2023 7:30AM In a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA read moreIn a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA financial markets about the worsening power crisis. BER Weekly, 6 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 7:30AM Global financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global read moreGlobal financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global stock markets rose through most of the week as traders/investors had a dovish interpretation of the guidance on the interest rate trajectory. On the local front, the first data releases for January came out last week, including the Absa PMI and naamsa new vehicle sales figures. BER Weekly, 30 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 30 2023 7:45AM The ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP read moreThe ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP growth forecast for the next three years. BER Weekly, 23 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 23 2023 7:45AM Last week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did read moreLast week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did better than expected in November and the internal trade sector as a whole may add positively to Q4 GDP growth. There were also two key inflation-related releases last week. BER Weekly 16 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 7:45AM Barely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand read moreBarely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand is set to pick up as economic activity returns following the December break.