Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EUniversity working papers BER Weekly (Archive) Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings. 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 22 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 22 2017 12:32PM In the domestic section we unpack the latest decision by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Against expectations for a cut, the MPC decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. Additionally, we look at the latest read moreIn the domestic section we unpack the latest decision by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Against expectations for a cut, the MPC decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. Additionally, we look at the latest consumer inflation numbers from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), which shows that August CPI inflation remained subdued. In the international section we discuss the latest interest rate decisions from the US and Japan. BER Weekly, 18 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 18 2017 11:28AM Data reported on the domestic economy last week covered the current account balance for Q2, as well as retail and wholesale sales in July. Accordingly, SA registered its third consecutive trade surplus in the second quarter. Despite this improvement on the read moreData reported on the domestic economy last week covered the current account balance for Q2, as well as retail and wholesale sales in July. Accordingly, SA registered its third consecutive trade surplus in the second quarter. Despite this improvement on the back of higher commodity prices, transfer payments to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) resulted in a wider gap on the current account. Meanwhile, the retail and wholesale data gave mixed signals at the start of the third quarter. Internationally, the Bank of England announced no change to its current accommodative monetary policy, though it indicated this stance could soon change. Markets interpreted these comments as hawkish, and as a result the pound gained some value in currency markets. Meanwhile, industrial production data for August was down in the US on the back of Hurricane Harvey, while in the Eurozone and China annual production growth remained on a strong footing. BER Weekly, 11 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 11 2017 11:56AM The quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) GDP growth rate in the second quarter turned out higher than most analysts expected. The implication is that SA exited the technical recession that lasted for half a year. Regarding the third quarter, the July figures for read moreThe quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) GDP growth rate in the second quarter turned out higher than most analysts expected. The implication is that SA exited the technical recession that lasted for half a year. Regarding the third quarter, the July figures for manufacturing output indicate a continuation of positive GDP growth. Meanwhile, growth in the world economy is also gaining momentum. The global composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up in August and was above the neutral-50 mark for nearly five years. Nonetheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious and decided to keep its policy interest rates at accommodative levels. In financial markets, the dollar lost some ground amid fears that hurricanes Irma and Harvey may dent US economic growth, while the oil price also increased on lower US production. BER Weekly, 04 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 4 2017 12:48PM In the domestic section we unpack July’s trade balance figures as well as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for August. The section also discusses the factory-gate inflation figures for July, which continued along its recent read moreIn the domestic section we unpack July’s trade balance figures as well as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for August. The section also discusses the factory-gate inflation figures for July, which continued along its recent downward trend. In the international section we take a look at the latest US employment and (revised) GDP growth figures, as well as activity indicators out of China. While US job creation slowed in August, overall economic activity remains well supported. Similarly, Chinese activity indicators point to sustained growth in the world’s second largest economy. BER Weekly, 28 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 28 2017 10:40AM On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest consumer inflation data, as well as a report on poverty trends. The inflation data indicated a continued downward move in price pressures, which will be welcomed by consumers. The read moreOn the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest consumer inflation data, as well as a report on poverty trends. The inflation data indicated a continued downward move in price pressures, which will be welcomed by consumers. The poverty report was significantly less positive, showing that poverty is on the rise in South Africa. In the international section, we unpack the latest preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone, the US and Japan. The PMI data suggests that growth in the developed economies remained solid in August. The section also briefly refers to the speeches made by US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole symposium. BER Weekly, 21 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 21 2017 1:37PM Last week was rather quiet on the domestic data front. The main release was the June retail trade data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) which, along with the wholesale trade data, reinforced the view that the SA economy likely exited the technical read moreLast week was rather quiet on the domestic data front. The main release was the June retail trade data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) which, along with the wholesale trade data, reinforced the view that the SA economy likely exited the technical recession in Q2. The improvement in the internal trade data is especially welcome given that the trade sector was the biggest drag on growth in Q1. Internationally, the focus was on monetary policy committee meeting minutes from the US and Eurozone. While both central banks were concerned about lower-than-target inflation, in the Eurozone it is largely due the fears that the euro currency will continue to strengthen against the US dollar. BER Weekly, 14 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 14 2017 12:15PM Political developments surrounding the vote on the motion of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma (his eighth since assuming office) dominated local news headlines early last week with, firstly, the announcement that it will be conducted by secret ballot, read morePolitical developments surrounding the vote on the motion of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma (his eighth since assuming office) dominated local news headlines early last week with, firstly, the announcement that it will be conducted by secret ballot, and secondly, the outcome of the vote. On the domestic data front, manufacturing data for June confirmed that the 2017Q2 performance of this sector was better than in Q1 while growth in mining remained positive, albeit slower than in Q1. However, the softer Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July suggests renewed pressure on manufacturing output in Q3. BER Weekly, 07 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 7 2017 11:47AM In the domestic section, we unpack the latest trade balance statistics from the SA Revenue Service (SARS), labour data for 2017Q2, the ABSA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data. The data releases by and large reflect, and read moreIn the domestic section, we unpack the latest trade balance statistics from the SA Revenue Service (SARS), labour data for 2017Q2, the ABSA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data. The data releases by and large reflect, and confirm, the weak domestic demand environment. In the international section we discuss GDP data from the Eurozone (EZ), the latest PMI statistics from across the globe and labour data out of the US. BER Weekly, 31 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 31 2017 10:48AM It was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with headline producer price inflation the only noteworthy data release. According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), producer price inflation slowed sharply in June on the back of moderating food and read moreIt was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with headline producer price inflation the only noteworthy data release. According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), producer price inflation slowed sharply in June on the back of moderating food and beverage price inflation. More on the latest release in the domestic section. In the international section we focus on the latest policy announcement by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and GDP data from several key developed economies. BER Weekly, 24 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 24 2017 11:20AM Most analysts were surprised last week when the policy makers at the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) announced a cut to the repo rate. The decision was motivated by the downward trend in both inflation and economic growth. Besides the interest rate decision, domestic read moreMost analysts were surprised last week when the policy makers at the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) announced a cut to the repo rate. The decision was motivated by the downward trend in both inflation and economic growth. Besides the interest rate decision, domestic consumer-related figures were a mixed bag as retail sales grew in May while wholesale trade sales contracted. Meanwhile, on the international scene, monetary policy decisions were also on the agenda last week. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held their key policy rates steady. ECB president Mario Draghi attempted to steer away from strong signals regarding the unwinding of the ECB asset purchase programme. Nonetheless, markets reacted significantly as the euro surged against an embattled US dollar, which weakened to its lowest level in 12 months. This week markets will keep an eye on the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. BER Weekly, 17 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 17 2017 12:19PM On the domestic front, output in both manufacturing and mining output contracted slightly during May. However, the net result for the second quarter could still turn out positive. Regarding South African consumers, confidence levels remained within negative read moreOn the domestic front, output in both manufacturing and mining output contracted slightly during May. However, the net result for the second quarter could still turn out positive. Regarding South African consumers, confidence levels remained within negative territory during the second quarter. This marked the longest streak where consumer confidence has been at or below zero since the survey started in 1982. On the international scene, China published upbeat economic growth results for the second quarter, while trade data for June also point towards strong momentum. Meanwhile, retail sales in the US declined for the second consecutive month in June, in conjunction with a slowing inflation rate. Furthermore, testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen was taken by the markets to have a slight dovish tone. As a result, the dollar weakened, while global stock markets gained significantly. BER Weekly, 10 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 10 2017 10:29AM The domestic economic calendar was very light last week, with the only two notable releases early in the week. The news headlines were dominated by the ANC’s National Policy Conference (NPC), which is discussed briefly in the domestic section with the market read moreThe domestic economic calendar was very light last week, with the only two notable releases early in the week. The news headlines were dominated by the ANC’s National Policy Conference (NPC), which is discussed briefly in the domestic section with the market implications (mainly on the rand) unpacked in the markets section. In the international section, we review the latest jobs data from the US, which came out stronger than expected. However, wage growth remained weak. We also discuss the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the US, Eurozone and China. BER Weekly, 03 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 3 2017 1:54PM In the domestic section, we unpack job statistics, trade data and producer price inflation data. The jobs data shows that the economy lost formal sector jobs in Q1, in line with the weak growth performance. On the positive side, the trade data reflected a read moreIn the domestic section, we unpack job statistics, trade data and producer price inflation data. The jobs data shows that the economy lost formal sector jobs in Q1, in line with the weak growth performance. On the positive side, the trade data reflected a surplus for a fourth straight month. On the international front, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from China points to continued strong growth in the economy. BER Weekly, 26 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 26 2017 1:08PM Investor sentiment soured last week following a recommendation by the Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, that the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) be amended to exclude the clause “to protect the value of the currency”. This saw a sell-off read moreInvestor sentiment soured last week following a recommendation by the Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, that the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) be amended to exclude the clause “to protect the value of the currency”. This saw a sell-off in the rand, which was already under pressure following the announcement of the new Mining Charter the week before last. On the global front, economic growth lost some momentum in June. The flash Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in both the US and the Eurozone (EZ) lost some ground. However, both remained above 50 and merely suggests that the pace of economic growth moderated somewhat. Domestically, the SARB revealed that the current account of the balance of payments widened in 2017Q1, after narrowing sharply during 2016Q4. BER Weekly, 19 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 19 2017 1:07PM Besides the reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision and commentary, domestic financial markets were dominated by the release of the new Mining Charter on Thursday. Mining shares in particular reacted negatively to the onerous read moreBesides the reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision and commentary, domestic financial markets were dominated by the release of the new Mining Charter on Thursday. Mining shares in particular reacted negatively to the onerous transformation targets contained in the Charter. On the data front, domestic retail trade data for April surprised on the upside. However, annual growth in wholesale trade sales contracted. This, on balance, points to a continuation of the weak consumer demand we saw in 2017Q1. An 11-point fall in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index in 2017Q2 confirms the more sedate domestic demand conditions. Meanwhile, on the international front, the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) lifted interest rates for the 3rd time in 12 months. The main impetus behind the hike was unemployment and inflation which have, in recent times, been close to or at targets levels. BER Weekly, 12 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 12 2017 4:37PM Data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that the SA economy entered a technical recession in 2017Q1. We unpack the latest GDP data, together with the first data releases for 2017Q2, in the domestic section. The latest ratings decision by read moreData released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that the SA economy entered a technical recession in 2017Q1. We unpack the latest GDP data, together with the first data releases for 2017Q2, in the domestic section. The latest ratings decision by Moody’s is discussed in the markets section. In the international section we discuss the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) as well as the purchasing mangers’ index (PMI) and inflation data from China. BER Weekly, 05 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 5 2017 11:49AM Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) on 1 June and unfortunately it did not make for good reading. While employment picked up in 2017Q1, this was accompanied by a large expansion in the labour force which read moreStatistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) on 1 June and unfortunately it did not make for good reading. While employment picked up in 2017Q1, this was accompanied by a large expansion in the labour force which pushed the unemployment rate to the highest level since 2003. We discuss the employment situation, together with the latest Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figure and trade data, in the domestic section. In the international section we unpack the latest jobs and inflation data from the US, PMI data from China, and the latest developments in Brazil, which is in the midst of yet another political crisis. BER Weekly, 29 May 2017 Last updated: May 29 2017 2:03PM Consumer inflation in the domestic economy slowed notably in April, and as such, moved within the target range of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Despite this, the SARB is still cautious regarding currency risks impacting inflation in future, and read moreConsumer inflation in the domestic economy slowed notably in April, and as such, moved within the target range of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Despite this, the SARB is still cautious regarding currency risks impacting inflation in future, and decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at its current level of 7%. On the international scene, the minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) shed some further light on the outlook for US monetary policy. In addition, , the May flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the US and Eurozone are briefly discussed. Lastly, in global markets, the recent rally in the oil price started to reverse as new rig counts in the US increased to two-year highs. Meanwhile, the rand exchange rate also experienced a short spree of political optimism, only to be disappointed after the weekend. BER Weekly, 22 May 2017 Last updated: May 22 2017 11:38AM The domestic section focuses on the trade sector this week. Both real retail and wholesale sales improved on a monthly basis in March. Concerning the first quarter, these improvements were not enough to offset notable contractions in the first two months of read moreThe domestic section focuses on the trade sector this week. Both real retail and wholesale sales improved on a monthly basis in March. Concerning the first quarter, these improvements were not enough to offset notable contractions in the first two months of 2017. Internationally, the focus falls on the Eurozone (EZ) where consumer confidence edged up to its highest level in a decade. Then the focus turns to Russia, a BRICS partner of SA. Russia recently emerged from a deep recession induced by lower energy prices. Lastly, the markets section highlights the oil price which increased last week, following talks of Russia’s cooperation with OPEC to extend production cuts. BER Weekly, 15 May 2017 Last updated: May 15 2017 12:37PM Last week saw the release of March mining and manufacturing data. With the release of the March data, we have the first full set of real economic data for 2017Q1. In sum, it seems that a technical recession will likely be avoided. In other words, GDP growth read moreLast week saw the release of March mining and manufacturing data. With the release of the March data, we have the first full set of real economic data for 2017Q1. In sum, it seems that a technical recession will likely be avoided. In other words, GDP growth in 2017Q1 should be positive, mainly due to a sharp recovery in mining production in March and despite the continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. On the international front, the Bank of England (BoE) kept their interest rate unchanged following their meeting last week. More importantly, the BoE made revisions to both the GDP and inflation outlook largely due to the expected impact of Brexit. BER Weekly, 08 May 2017 Last updated: May 8 2017 11:31AM A slew of domestic economic data was released over the past two weeks. While the trade data for 2017Q1 was encouraging, two data releases for the first month of Q2 disappointed. The high number of public holidays during April may have played a role, but the read moreA slew of domestic economic data was released over the past two weeks. While the trade data for 2017Q1 was encouraging, two data releases for the first month of Q2 disappointed. The high number of public holidays during April may have played a role, but the soft data likely also reflects a deterioration in the economic environment after the controversial cabinet reshuffle and subsequent sovereign credit rating downgrades. Internationally, the key focus was on the French election that took place yesterday. Early indications are that Emmanuel Macron won comfortably from anti-Europe Marine Le Pen. On the data front, the focus was on the US nonfarm payrolls for April after the US Federal Reserve opted to keep the policy interest rate unchanged earlier in the week. The data confirms that a rate hike is likely on the cards for June. BER Weekly, 24 April 2017 Last updated: Apr 24 2017 10:13AM The domestic economic data calendar was relatively busy last week, with key data releases from Statistics South Africa painting a mixed picture for the 2017Q1 GDP outlook. On the one hand, mining output came out much better than expected, but manufacturing read moreThe domestic economic data calendar was relatively busy last week, with key data releases from Statistics South Africa painting a mixed picture for the 2017Q1 GDP outlook. On the one hand, mining output came out much better than expected, but manufacturing production disappointed. These releases, as well as the latest consumer inflation and retail sales data, are discussed in the domestic section. In the international section we review the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for Europe and the US as well as the 2017Q1 GDP data from China. The markets section provides an overview of the initial market reaction to French first round election results, focussing on the impact on the rand exchange rate. BER Weekly, 10 April 2017 Last updated: Apr 10 2017 2:45PM In the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section. read moreIn the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section. BER Weekly, 03 April 2017 Last updated: Apr 3 2017 12:05PM Domestic political developments overshadowed economic events last week. This started on Monday when the former Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and his deputy were recalled from an investor roadshow and culminated in a cabinet reshuffle (which saw both of read moreDomestic political developments overshadowed economic events last week. This started on Monday when the former Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and his deputy were recalled from an investor roadshow and culminated in a cabinet reshuffle (which saw both of them ousted from their positions) late Thursday evening. Markets immediately reacted, particularly with regards to the rand (see markets). In the domestic section, we unpack the latest producer price inflation data, the interest rate announcement on Thursday and the latest Absa Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). The key message from these is that domestic price pressures seem to be easing. Major economic data releases were rather sparse on the international front. Final GDP data for some of the larger economies were released, but these were largely unchanged from previous estimates. The focus in the international section is on China’s official PMI and US consumer data. BER Weekly, 27 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 27 2017 1:47PM Domestically, the economic data released last week was on the positive side. High commodity prices supported exports handsomely in the final quarter of 2016, resulting in a reduction in the deficit on the current account (CA). Meanwhile, consumer inflation read moreDomestically, the economic data released last week was on the positive side. High commodity prices supported exports handsomely in the final quarter of 2016, resulting in a reduction in the deficit on the current account (CA). Meanwhile, consumer inflation eased in February as annual food price inflation moderated. Internationally, the March flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the Eurozone (EZ) and US were released last Friday. Both the Eurozone and US economies are still growing, though the Eurozone is accelerating while the US is losing momentum. Meanwhile, financial markets were affected by US president Trump’s failure to convince his own party to proceed with health care reform. BER Weekly, 17 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 17 2017 1:58PM Various gauges of domestic economic activity were published last week, most indicating that 2017 started off at a slow pace. Business confidence remained broadly pessimistic in Q1, while manufacturing production and retail sales underperformed in January. read moreVarious gauges of domestic economic activity were published last week, most indicating that 2017 started off at a slow pace. Business confidence remained broadly pessimistic in Q1, while manufacturing production and retail sales underperformed in January. However, mining output provided a positive balance. On the international stage, a number of central banks announced policy interest rate decisions last week. As such, rates were hiked in the US and China, while in the UK the policy rate remained unchanged. Besides these, the results of the general elections in the Netherlands are discussed briefly. BER Weekly, 13 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 13 2017 1:45PM It was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with the only notable release that of the 2016Q4 GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). GDP growth disappointed in Q4, coming in below market expectations. As a result, 2016 GDP growth was the read moreIt was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with the only notable release that of the 2016Q4 GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). GDP growth disappointed in Q4, coming in below market expectations. As a result, 2016 GDP growth was the worst since the 2009 recession. More details in the domestic section and on the BER website. In international news, China recorded its first trade deficit in three years, while the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged. Further afield, the US economy added 235 000 jobs in February, beating consensus and paving the way for an interest rate hike later this week. BER Weekly, 06 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 6 2017 10:31AM In domestic news, the February print of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to recover following a contraction in the final months of 2016. In contrast, new vehicle sales fell back after posting a welcome read moreIn domestic news, the February print of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to recover following a contraction in the final months of 2016. In contrast, new vehicle sales fell back after posting a welcome rise in January. On the international front, the probability of a March interest rate hike in the US has increased following a number of positive data releases. We also unpack US President Trump’s first speech in Congress and the latest PMI data from China. BER Weekly, 27 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 27 2017 12:23PM The domestic economic calendar was dominated by the tabling of the National Budget by Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan on Wednesday. While significant personal income tax (PIT) hikes should depress consumer spending, there may be some relief from lower read moreThe domestic economic calendar was dominated by the tabling of the National Budget by Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan on Wednesday. While significant personal income tax (PIT) hikes should depress consumer spending, there may be some relief from lower inflation in 2017. Indeed, price increases at factory gates slowed more than expected in January (see the domestic section). In the international section we unpack the release of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) February meeting minutes. Despite the statement that the policy interest rate may be hiked “fairly soon”, market expectations remained low for a rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming meeting in March. The section also reviews the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the US, Eurozone and Japan. BER Weekly, 20 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 20 2017 11:04AM In the domestic section we review the latest employment, retail trade and inflation data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The labour data showed that despite a quarterly dip in the unemployment rate in 2016Q4, annual job growth remained weak. Subdued read moreIn the domestic section we review the latest employment, retail trade and inflation data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The labour data showed that despite a quarterly dip in the unemployment rate in 2016Q4, annual job growth remained weak. Subdued employment growth makes Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s job to balance the books in Wednesday’s annual National Budget statement even more challenging. On the international front, the key economic event was the semi-annual testimony by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen before the Senate Banking Committee. Although Yellen’s comments did not contain a lot of new information, it was interpreted as being slightly more hawkish on the US interest rate outlook. Higher-than-expected US inflation and more upbeat retail sales data released last week support the case for Fed rate hikes going forward. BER Weekly, 13 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 13 2017 12:02PM Socio-political topics dominated the domestic agenda last week. As such, the current affairs section focuses on the new national minimum wage (NMW) announced by the deputy president, as well as the State of the Nation Address (SONA) by President Jacob Zuma. read moreSocio-political topics dominated the domestic agenda last week. As such, the current affairs section focuses on the new national minimum wage (NMW) announced by the deputy president, as well as the State of the Nation Address (SONA) by President Jacob Zuma. The domestic section touches on the mining and manufacturing data which is now complete for 2016Q4, and confirms a contraction in both sectors. BER Weekly, 06 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 6 2017 1:11PM Domestic economic data released last week showed that the economy started the year off on a solid footing. The January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moved above 50 for the first time since July 2016 while vehicles sales, also for January, posted its read moreDomestic economic data released last week showed that the economy started the year off on a solid footing. The January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moved above 50 for the first time since July 2016 while vehicles sales, also for January, posted its first annual expansion since 2015. On the international front, monetary policy meetings in the US and the UK yielded no change in interest rates for these countries. However, the expectation is that the US will continue with gradual monetary policy tightening later this year. Also in the US, non-farm payroll employment rose by more than expected in January. However, earnings growth disappointed. BER Weekly, 30 January 2017 Last updated: Jan 30 2017 12:36PM Domestic inflationary pressure may be stickier than the consensus expectations, as seen from the inflation forecast of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the latest producer inflation figures (PPI) reported by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). In read moreDomestic inflationary pressure may be stickier than the consensus expectations, as seen from the inflation forecast of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the latest producer inflation figures (PPI) reported by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). In this light, the domestic section focuses on the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) interest rate decision and the PPI figure for December. BER Weekly, 23 January 2017 Last updated: Jan 23 2017 9:11AM On the domestic front, consumer inflation for December came out slightly higher than predicted. However, we expect the SA Reserve Bank to retain a view of moderating inflation going forward and is therefore likely to keep the repo policy interest rate on hold read moreOn the domestic front, consumer inflation for December came out slightly higher than predicted. However, we expect the SA Reserve Bank to retain a view of moderating inflation going forward and is therefore likely to keep the repo policy interest rate on hold tomorrow. In the SA real economy, last week’s data releases were mixed. Retail sales improved notably in November, while mining output contracted and consumer confidence declined in 2016Q4. BER Weekly, 16 January 2017 Last updated: Jan 16 2017 11:13AM We wish all our subscribers a pleasant and prosperous 2017. Global markets, especially equities, have for the most part remained resilient so far in 2017 after the rally experienced during late 2016. On the domestic front, last week’s data releases from the read moreWe wish all our subscribers a pleasant and prosperous 2017. Global markets, especially equities, have for the most part remained resilient so far in 2017 after the rally experienced during late 2016. On the domestic front, last week’s data releases from the BER and Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) suggest that the manufacturing sector is likely to contract in 2016Q4. While some of the key supply-side constraints have lessened, the sector remains constrained by weak domestic demand. This was also reflected in new vehicle sales which contracted for a third consecutive year in 2016 – see the domestic section. In the international section we unpack trade and inflation data from China. The December trade data confirmed that annual Chinese exports declined by the steepest rate since 2009, which highlights the sluggish recovery in global demand.
BER Weekly (Archive) Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings. 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 22 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 22 2017 12:32PM In the domestic section we unpack the latest decision by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Against expectations for a cut, the MPC decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. Additionally, we look at the latest read moreIn the domestic section we unpack the latest decision by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Against expectations for a cut, the MPC decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. Additionally, we look at the latest consumer inflation numbers from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), which shows that August CPI inflation remained subdued. In the international section we discuss the latest interest rate decisions from the US and Japan. BER Weekly, 18 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 18 2017 11:28AM Data reported on the domestic economy last week covered the current account balance for Q2, as well as retail and wholesale sales in July. Accordingly, SA registered its third consecutive trade surplus in the second quarter. Despite this improvement on the read moreData reported on the domestic economy last week covered the current account balance for Q2, as well as retail and wholesale sales in July. Accordingly, SA registered its third consecutive trade surplus in the second quarter. Despite this improvement on the back of higher commodity prices, transfer payments to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) resulted in a wider gap on the current account. Meanwhile, the retail and wholesale data gave mixed signals at the start of the third quarter. Internationally, the Bank of England announced no change to its current accommodative monetary policy, though it indicated this stance could soon change. Markets interpreted these comments as hawkish, and as a result the pound gained some value in currency markets. Meanwhile, industrial production data for August was down in the US on the back of Hurricane Harvey, while in the Eurozone and China annual production growth remained on a strong footing. BER Weekly, 11 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 11 2017 11:56AM The quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) GDP growth rate in the second quarter turned out higher than most analysts expected. The implication is that SA exited the technical recession that lasted for half a year. Regarding the third quarter, the July figures for read moreThe quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) GDP growth rate in the second quarter turned out higher than most analysts expected. The implication is that SA exited the technical recession that lasted for half a year. Regarding the third quarter, the July figures for manufacturing output indicate a continuation of positive GDP growth. Meanwhile, growth in the world economy is also gaining momentum. The global composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up in August and was above the neutral-50 mark for nearly five years. Nonetheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious and decided to keep its policy interest rates at accommodative levels. In financial markets, the dollar lost some ground amid fears that hurricanes Irma and Harvey may dent US economic growth, while the oil price also increased on lower US production. BER Weekly, 04 September 2017 Last updated: Sep 4 2017 12:48PM In the domestic section we unpack July’s trade balance figures as well as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for August. The section also discusses the factory-gate inflation figures for July, which continued along its recent read moreIn the domestic section we unpack July’s trade balance figures as well as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for August. The section also discusses the factory-gate inflation figures for July, which continued along its recent downward trend. In the international section we take a look at the latest US employment and (revised) GDP growth figures, as well as activity indicators out of China. While US job creation slowed in August, overall economic activity remains well supported. Similarly, Chinese activity indicators point to sustained growth in the world’s second largest economy. BER Weekly, 28 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 28 2017 10:40AM On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest consumer inflation data, as well as a report on poverty trends. The inflation data indicated a continued downward move in price pressures, which will be welcomed by consumers. The read moreOn the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest consumer inflation data, as well as a report on poverty trends. The inflation data indicated a continued downward move in price pressures, which will be welcomed by consumers. The poverty report was significantly less positive, showing that poverty is on the rise in South Africa. In the international section, we unpack the latest preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone, the US and Japan. The PMI data suggests that growth in the developed economies remained solid in August. The section also briefly refers to the speeches made by US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole symposium. BER Weekly, 21 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 21 2017 1:37PM Last week was rather quiet on the domestic data front. The main release was the June retail trade data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) which, along with the wholesale trade data, reinforced the view that the SA economy likely exited the technical read moreLast week was rather quiet on the domestic data front. The main release was the June retail trade data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) which, along with the wholesale trade data, reinforced the view that the SA economy likely exited the technical recession in Q2. The improvement in the internal trade data is especially welcome given that the trade sector was the biggest drag on growth in Q1. Internationally, the focus was on monetary policy committee meeting minutes from the US and Eurozone. While both central banks were concerned about lower-than-target inflation, in the Eurozone it is largely due the fears that the euro currency will continue to strengthen against the US dollar. BER Weekly, 14 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 14 2017 12:15PM Political developments surrounding the vote on the motion of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma (his eighth since assuming office) dominated local news headlines early last week with, firstly, the announcement that it will be conducted by secret ballot, read morePolitical developments surrounding the vote on the motion of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma (his eighth since assuming office) dominated local news headlines early last week with, firstly, the announcement that it will be conducted by secret ballot, and secondly, the outcome of the vote. On the domestic data front, manufacturing data for June confirmed that the 2017Q2 performance of this sector was better than in Q1 while growth in mining remained positive, albeit slower than in Q1. However, the softer Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July suggests renewed pressure on manufacturing output in Q3. BER Weekly, 07 August 2017 Last updated: Aug 7 2017 11:47AM In the domestic section, we unpack the latest trade balance statistics from the SA Revenue Service (SARS), labour data for 2017Q2, the ABSA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data. The data releases by and large reflect, and read moreIn the domestic section, we unpack the latest trade balance statistics from the SA Revenue Service (SARS), labour data for 2017Q2, the ABSA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data. The data releases by and large reflect, and confirm, the weak domestic demand environment. In the international section we discuss GDP data from the Eurozone (EZ), the latest PMI statistics from across the globe and labour data out of the US. BER Weekly, 31 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 31 2017 10:48AM It was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with headline producer price inflation the only noteworthy data release. According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), producer price inflation slowed sharply in June on the back of moderating food and read moreIt was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with headline producer price inflation the only noteworthy data release. According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), producer price inflation slowed sharply in June on the back of moderating food and beverage price inflation. More on the latest release in the domestic section. In the international section we focus on the latest policy announcement by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and GDP data from several key developed economies. BER Weekly, 24 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 24 2017 11:20AM Most analysts were surprised last week when the policy makers at the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) announced a cut to the repo rate. The decision was motivated by the downward trend in both inflation and economic growth. Besides the interest rate decision, domestic read moreMost analysts were surprised last week when the policy makers at the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) announced a cut to the repo rate. The decision was motivated by the downward trend in both inflation and economic growth. Besides the interest rate decision, domestic consumer-related figures were a mixed bag as retail sales grew in May while wholesale trade sales contracted. Meanwhile, on the international scene, monetary policy decisions were also on the agenda last week. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held their key policy rates steady. ECB president Mario Draghi attempted to steer away from strong signals regarding the unwinding of the ECB asset purchase programme. Nonetheless, markets reacted significantly as the euro surged against an embattled US dollar, which weakened to its lowest level in 12 months. This week markets will keep an eye on the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. BER Weekly, 17 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 17 2017 12:19PM On the domestic front, output in both manufacturing and mining output contracted slightly during May. However, the net result for the second quarter could still turn out positive. Regarding South African consumers, confidence levels remained within negative read moreOn the domestic front, output in both manufacturing and mining output contracted slightly during May. However, the net result for the second quarter could still turn out positive. Regarding South African consumers, confidence levels remained within negative territory during the second quarter. This marked the longest streak where consumer confidence has been at or below zero since the survey started in 1982. On the international scene, China published upbeat economic growth results for the second quarter, while trade data for June also point towards strong momentum. Meanwhile, retail sales in the US declined for the second consecutive month in June, in conjunction with a slowing inflation rate. Furthermore, testimony by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen was taken by the markets to have a slight dovish tone. As a result, the dollar weakened, while global stock markets gained significantly. BER Weekly, 10 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 10 2017 10:29AM The domestic economic calendar was very light last week, with the only two notable releases early in the week. The news headlines were dominated by the ANC’s National Policy Conference (NPC), which is discussed briefly in the domestic section with the market read moreThe domestic economic calendar was very light last week, with the only two notable releases early in the week. The news headlines were dominated by the ANC’s National Policy Conference (NPC), which is discussed briefly in the domestic section with the market implications (mainly on the rand) unpacked in the markets section. In the international section, we review the latest jobs data from the US, which came out stronger than expected. However, wage growth remained weak. We also discuss the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the US, Eurozone and China. BER Weekly, 03 July 2017 Last updated: Jul 3 2017 1:54PM In the domestic section, we unpack job statistics, trade data and producer price inflation data. The jobs data shows that the economy lost formal sector jobs in Q1, in line with the weak growth performance. On the positive side, the trade data reflected a read moreIn the domestic section, we unpack job statistics, trade data and producer price inflation data. The jobs data shows that the economy lost formal sector jobs in Q1, in line with the weak growth performance. On the positive side, the trade data reflected a surplus for a fourth straight month. On the international front, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from China points to continued strong growth in the economy. BER Weekly, 26 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 26 2017 1:08PM Investor sentiment soured last week following a recommendation by the Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, that the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) be amended to exclude the clause “to protect the value of the currency”. This saw a sell-off read moreInvestor sentiment soured last week following a recommendation by the Public Protector, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, that the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) be amended to exclude the clause “to protect the value of the currency”. This saw a sell-off in the rand, which was already under pressure following the announcement of the new Mining Charter the week before last. On the global front, economic growth lost some momentum in June. The flash Markit Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in both the US and the Eurozone (EZ) lost some ground. However, both remained above 50 and merely suggests that the pace of economic growth moderated somewhat. Domestically, the SARB revealed that the current account of the balance of payments widened in 2017Q1, after narrowing sharply during 2016Q4. BER Weekly, 19 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 19 2017 1:07PM Besides the reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision and commentary, domestic financial markets were dominated by the release of the new Mining Charter on Thursday. Mining shares in particular reacted negatively to the onerous read moreBesides the reaction to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision and commentary, domestic financial markets were dominated by the release of the new Mining Charter on Thursday. Mining shares in particular reacted negatively to the onerous transformation targets contained in the Charter. On the data front, domestic retail trade data for April surprised on the upside. However, annual growth in wholesale trade sales contracted. This, on balance, points to a continuation of the weak consumer demand we saw in 2017Q1. An 11-point fall in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index in 2017Q2 confirms the more sedate domestic demand conditions. Meanwhile, on the international front, the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) lifted interest rates for the 3rd time in 12 months. The main impetus behind the hike was unemployment and inflation which have, in recent times, been close to or at targets levels. BER Weekly, 12 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 12 2017 4:37PM Data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that the SA economy entered a technical recession in 2017Q1. We unpack the latest GDP data, together with the first data releases for 2017Q2, in the domestic section. The latest ratings decision by read moreData released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) showed that the SA economy entered a technical recession in 2017Q1. We unpack the latest GDP data, together with the first data releases for 2017Q2, in the domestic section. The latest ratings decision by Moody’s is discussed in the markets section. In the international section we discuss the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) as well as the purchasing mangers’ index (PMI) and inflation data from China. BER Weekly, 05 June 2017 Last updated: Jun 5 2017 11:49AM Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) on 1 June and unfortunately it did not make for good reading. While employment picked up in 2017Q1, this was accompanied by a large expansion in the labour force which read moreStatistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) on 1 June and unfortunately it did not make for good reading. While employment picked up in 2017Q1, this was accompanied by a large expansion in the labour force which pushed the unemployment rate to the highest level since 2003. We discuss the employment situation, together with the latest Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figure and trade data, in the domestic section. In the international section we unpack the latest jobs and inflation data from the US, PMI data from China, and the latest developments in Brazil, which is in the midst of yet another political crisis. BER Weekly, 29 May 2017 Last updated: May 29 2017 2:03PM Consumer inflation in the domestic economy slowed notably in April, and as such, moved within the target range of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Despite this, the SARB is still cautious regarding currency risks impacting inflation in future, and read moreConsumer inflation in the domestic economy slowed notably in April, and as such, moved within the target range of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Despite this, the SARB is still cautious regarding currency risks impacting inflation in future, and decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at its current level of 7%. On the international scene, the minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) shed some further light on the outlook for US monetary policy. In addition, , the May flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the US and Eurozone are briefly discussed. Lastly, in global markets, the recent rally in the oil price started to reverse as new rig counts in the US increased to two-year highs. Meanwhile, the rand exchange rate also experienced a short spree of political optimism, only to be disappointed after the weekend. BER Weekly, 22 May 2017 Last updated: May 22 2017 11:38AM The domestic section focuses on the trade sector this week. Both real retail and wholesale sales improved on a monthly basis in March. Concerning the first quarter, these improvements were not enough to offset notable contractions in the first two months of read moreThe domestic section focuses on the trade sector this week. Both real retail and wholesale sales improved on a monthly basis in March. Concerning the first quarter, these improvements were not enough to offset notable contractions in the first two months of 2017. Internationally, the focus falls on the Eurozone (EZ) where consumer confidence edged up to its highest level in a decade. Then the focus turns to Russia, a BRICS partner of SA. Russia recently emerged from a deep recession induced by lower energy prices. Lastly, the markets section highlights the oil price which increased last week, following talks of Russia’s cooperation with OPEC to extend production cuts. BER Weekly, 15 May 2017 Last updated: May 15 2017 12:37PM Last week saw the release of March mining and manufacturing data. With the release of the March data, we have the first full set of real economic data for 2017Q1. In sum, it seems that a technical recession will likely be avoided. In other words, GDP growth read moreLast week saw the release of March mining and manufacturing data. With the release of the March data, we have the first full set of real economic data for 2017Q1. In sum, it seems that a technical recession will likely be avoided. In other words, GDP growth in 2017Q1 should be positive, mainly due to a sharp recovery in mining production in March and despite the continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. On the international front, the Bank of England (BoE) kept their interest rate unchanged following their meeting last week. More importantly, the BoE made revisions to both the GDP and inflation outlook largely due to the expected impact of Brexit. BER Weekly, 08 May 2017 Last updated: May 8 2017 11:31AM A slew of domestic economic data was released over the past two weeks. While the trade data for 2017Q1 was encouraging, two data releases for the first month of Q2 disappointed. The high number of public holidays during April may have played a role, but the read moreA slew of domestic economic data was released over the past two weeks. While the trade data for 2017Q1 was encouraging, two data releases for the first month of Q2 disappointed. The high number of public holidays during April may have played a role, but the soft data likely also reflects a deterioration in the economic environment after the controversial cabinet reshuffle and subsequent sovereign credit rating downgrades. Internationally, the key focus was on the French election that took place yesterday. Early indications are that Emmanuel Macron won comfortably from anti-Europe Marine Le Pen. On the data front, the focus was on the US nonfarm payrolls for April after the US Federal Reserve opted to keep the policy interest rate unchanged earlier in the week. The data confirms that a rate hike is likely on the cards for June. BER Weekly, 24 April 2017 Last updated: Apr 24 2017 10:13AM The domestic economic data calendar was relatively busy last week, with key data releases from Statistics South Africa painting a mixed picture for the 2017Q1 GDP outlook. On the one hand, mining output came out much better than expected, but manufacturing read moreThe domestic economic data calendar was relatively busy last week, with key data releases from Statistics South Africa painting a mixed picture for the 2017Q1 GDP outlook. On the one hand, mining output came out much better than expected, but manufacturing production disappointed. These releases, as well as the latest consumer inflation and retail sales data, are discussed in the domestic section. In the international section we review the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures for Europe and the US as well as the 2017Q1 GDP data from China. The markets section provides an overview of the initial market reaction to French first round election results, focussing on the impact on the rand exchange rate. BER Weekly, 10 April 2017 Last updated: Apr 10 2017 2:45PM In the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section. read moreIn the domestic and markets sections we unpack the consequences of the credit rating downgrades by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings. US jobs data and Chinese purchasing managers’ indices are discussed in the international section. BER Weekly, 03 April 2017 Last updated: Apr 3 2017 12:05PM Domestic political developments overshadowed economic events last week. This started on Monday when the former Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and his deputy were recalled from an investor roadshow and culminated in a cabinet reshuffle (which saw both of read moreDomestic political developments overshadowed economic events last week. This started on Monday when the former Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and his deputy were recalled from an investor roadshow and culminated in a cabinet reshuffle (which saw both of them ousted from their positions) late Thursday evening. Markets immediately reacted, particularly with regards to the rand (see markets). In the domestic section, we unpack the latest producer price inflation data, the interest rate announcement on Thursday and the latest Absa Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). The key message from these is that domestic price pressures seem to be easing. Major economic data releases were rather sparse on the international front. Final GDP data for some of the larger economies were released, but these were largely unchanged from previous estimates. The focus in the international section is on China’s official PMI and US consumer data. BER Weekly, 27 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 27 2017 1:47PM Domestically, the economic data released last week was on the positive side. High commodity prices supported exports handsomely in the final quarter of 2016, resulting in a reduction in the deficit on the current account (CA). Meanwhile, consumer inflation read moreDomestically, the economic data released last week was on the positive side. High commodity prices supported exports handsomely in the final quarter of 2016, resulting in a reduction in the deficit on the current account (CA). Meanwhile, consumer inflation eased in February as annual food price inflation moderated. Internationally, the March flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the Eurozone (EZ) and US were released last Friday. Both the Eurozone and US economies are still growing, though the Eurozone is accelerating while the US is losing momentum. Meanwhile, financial markets were affected by US president Trump’s failure to convince his own party to proceed with health care reform. BER Weekly, 17 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 17 2017 1:58PM Various gauges of domestic economic activity were published last week, most indicating that 2017 started off at a slow pace. Business confidence remained broadly pessimistic in Q1, while manufacturing production and retail sales underperformed in January. read moreVarious gauges of domestic economic activity were published last week, most indicating that 2017 started off at a slow pace. Business confidence remained broadly pessimistic in Q1, while manufacturing production and retail sales underperformed in January. However, mining output provided a positive balance. On the international stage, a number of central banks announced policy interest rate decisions last week. As such, rates were hiked in the US and China, while in the UK the policy rate remained unchanged. Besides these, the results of the general elections in the Netherlands are discussed briefly. BER Weekly, 13 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 13 2017 1:45PM It was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with the only notable release that of the 2016Q4 GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). GDP growth disappointed in Q4, coming in below market expectations. As a result, 2016 GDP growth was the read moreIt was a quiet week on the domestic data front, with the only notable release that of the 2016Q4 GDP figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). GDP growth disappointed in Q4, coming in below market expectations. As a result, 2016 GDP growth was the worst since the 2009 recession. More details in the domestic section and on the BER website. In international news, China recorded its first trade deficit in three years, while the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged. Further afield, the US economy added 235 000 jobs in February, beating consensus and paving the way for an interest rate hike later this week. BER Weekly, 06 March 2017 Last updated: Mar 6 2017 10:31AM In domestic news, the February print of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to recover following a contraction in the final months of 2016. In contrast, new vehicle sales fell back after posting a welcome read moreIn domestic news, the February print of the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to recover following a contraction in the final months of 2016. In contrast, new vehicle sales fell back after posting a welcome rise in January. On the international front, the probability of a March interest rate hike in the US has increased following a number of positive data releases. We also unpack US President Trump’s first speech in Congress and the latest PMI data from China. BER Weekly, 27 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 27 2017 12:23PM The domestic economic calendar was dominated by the tabling of the National Budget by Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan on Wednesday. While significant personal income tax (PIT) hikes should depress consumer spending, there may be some relief from lower read moreThe domestic economic calendar was dominated by the tabling of the National Budget by Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan on Wednesday. While significant personal income tax (PIT) hikes should depress consumer spending, there may be some relief from lower inflation in 2017. Indeed, price increases at factory gates slowed more than expected in January (see the domestic section). In the international section we unpack the release of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) February meeting minutes. Despite the statement that the policy interest rate may be hiked “fairly soon”, market expectations remained low for a rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming meeting in March. The section also reviews the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from the US, Eurozone and Japan. BER Weekly, 20 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 20 2017 11:04AM In the domestic section we review the latest employment, retail trade and inflation data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The labour data showed that despite a quarterly dip in the unemployment rate in 2016Q4, annual job growth remained weak. Subdued read moreIn the domestic section we review the latest employment, retail trade and inflation data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). The labour data showed that despite a quarterly dip in the unemployment rate in 2016Q4, annual job growth remained weak. Subdued employment growth makes Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s job to balance the books in Wednesday’s annual National Budget statement even more challenging. On the international front, the key economic event was the semi-annual testimony by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen before the Senate Banking Committee. Although Yellen’s comments did not contain a lot of new information, it was interpreted as being slightly more hawkish on the US interest rate outlook. Higher-than-expected US inflation and more upbeat retail sales data released last week support the case for Fed rate hikes going forward. BER Weekly, 13 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 13 2017 12:02PM Socio-political topics dominated the domestic agenda last week. As such, the current affairs section focuses on the new national minimum wage (NMW) announced by the deputy president, as well as the State of the Nation Address (SONA) by President Jacob Zuma. read moreSocio-political topics dominated the domestic agenda last week. As such, the current affairs section focuses on the new national minimum wage (NMW) announced by the deputy president, as well as the State of the Nation Address (SONA) by President Jacob Zuma. The domestic section touches on the mining and manufacturing data which is now complete for 2016Q4, and confirms a contraction in both sectors. BER Weekly, 06 February 2017 Last updated: Feb 6 2017 1:11PM Domestic economic data released last week showed that the economy started the year off on a solid footing. The January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moved above 50 for the first time since July 2016 while vehicles sales, also for January, posted its read moreDomestic economic data released last week showed that the economy started the year off on a solid footing. The January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) moved above 50 for the first time since July 2016 while vehicles sales, also for January, posted its first annual expansion since 2015. On the international front, monetary policy meetings in the US and the UK yielded no change in interest rates for these countries. However, the expectation is that the US will continue with gradual monetary policy tightening later this year. Also in the US, non-farm payroll employment rose by more than expected in January. However, earnings growth disappointed. BER Weekly, 30 January 2017 Last updated: Jan 30 2017 12:36PM Domestic inflationary pressure may be stickier than the consensus expectations, as seen from the inflation forecast of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the latest producer inflation figures (PPI) reported by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). In read moreDomestic inflationary pressure may be stickier than the consensus expectations, as seen from the inflation forecast of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the latest producer inflation figures (PPI) reported by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). In this light, the domestic section focuses on the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) interest rate decision and the PPI figure for December. BER Weekly, 23 January 2017 Last updated: Jan 23 2017 9:11AM On the domestic front, consumer inflation for December came out slightly higher than predicted. However, we expect the SA Reserve Bank to retain a view of moderating inflation going forward and is therefore likely to keep the repo policy interest rate on hold read moreOn the domestic front, consumer inflation for December came out slightly higher than predicted. However, we expect the SA Reserve Bank to retain a view of moderating inflation going forward and is therefore likely to keep the repo policy interest rate on hold tomorrow. In the SA real economy, last week’s data releases were mixed. Retail sales improved notably in November, while mining output contracted and consumer confidence declined in 2016Q4. BER Weekly, 16 January 2017 Last updated: Jan 16 2017 11:13AM We wish all our subscribers a pleasant and prosperous 2017. Global markets, especially equities, have for the most part remained resilient so far in 2017 after the rally experienced during late 2016. On the domestic front, last week’s data releases from the read moreWe wish all our subscribers a pleasant and prosperous 2017. Global markets, especially equities, have for the most part remained resilient so far in 2017 after the rally experienced during late 2016. On the domestic front, last week’s data releases from the BER and Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) suggest that the manufacturing sector is likely to contract in 2016Q4. While some of the key supply-side constraints have lessened, the sector remains constrained by weak domestic demand. This was also reflected in new vehicle sales which contracted for a third consecutive year in 2016 – see the domestic section. In the international section we unpack trade and inflation data from China. The December trade data confirmed that annual Chinese exports declined by the steepest rate since 2009, which highlights the sluggish recovery in global demand.