Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EUniversity working papers BER Weekly (Archive) Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings. 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly_18 June 2018 Last updated: Jun 18 2018 12:00PM A raft of domestic data released last week suggested that, after a poor first quarter, the SA economy remained under pressure at the start of 2018Q2. BER Weekly, 11 June 2018 Last updated: Jun 11 2018 10:39AM Over the weekend, welcome news broke that the majority of public sector trade unions had signed a multi-year wage deal with the government. Unfortunately, the costs are significantly more than budgeted for by National Treasury in the February Budget. This read moreOver the weekend, welcome news broke that the majority of public sector trade unions had signed a multi-year wage deal with the government. Unfortunately, the costs are significantly more than budgeted for by National Treasury in the February Budget. This means that the government is faced with some tough choices. The fact that GDP growth disappointed in Q1 and suggests that full-year growth could be lower than forecast by Treasury further complicates matters. This, as well as the latest manufacturing output data, is unpacked in the domestic section. On the international data front, the major releases focussed on trade and the outcomes were essentially fuel on the fire of the trade-war rhetoric coming from the US. The big US trade deficit remains one of US President Donald Trump’s pet peeves. Trump made this clear again on a Twitter rant in the wake of the weekend’s G7 meeting in Canada. BER Weekly, 4 June 2018 Last updated: Jun 4 2018 11:01AM It was a busy week on the domestic data front. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for May showed that the economy is likely to perform better in Q2 compared to Q1. However, the first quarter GDP data to be released read moreIt was a busy week on the domestic data front. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for May showed that the economy is likely to perform better in Q2 compared to Q1. However, the first quarter GDP data to be released tomorrow is likely to be a disappointingly weak print. In the international section, the focus is on the latest employment and inflation data from the US. The job figures came in better than expected, and with inflation remaining steady, this suggests that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains on track to hike its policy interest rate next week. BER Weekly, 28 May 2018 Last updated: May 28 2018 12:13PM In the Domestic section we review the latest interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), as well as consumer price inflation data for April. CPI inflation came in below expectations for April and while the MPC read moreIn the Domestic section we review the latest interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), as well as consumer price inflation data for April. CPI inflation came in below expectations for April and while the MPC judged the risks to the inflation outlook to be on the upside, the lower-than-expected print contributed to a mostly unchanged SARB headline CPI forecast. Finally, as expected, S&P Global Ratings kept its rating for SA’s sovereign debt unchanged at below investment grade. More on the rationale for this decision and the market reaction in the Markets section. In international news, we focus on the flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) for May released around the world. In all, the preliminary numbers paint a mixed picture for global growth. BER Weekly, 21 May 2018 Last updated: May 21 2018 10:56AM Retail and wholesale sales data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) over the week added to concerns of a sharp slowdown (and potentially even an outright contraction) in overall GDP growth in 2018Q1. While sales growth held up reasonably well on a read moreRetail and wholesale sales data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) over the week added to concerns of a sharp slowdown (and potentially even an outright contraction) in overall GDP growth in 2018Q1. While sales growth held up reasonably well on a monthly basis in March, both the retail and wholesale sectors contracted during the first quarter. This adds to weak mining and manufacturing data. On the international front, activity data out of China and Japan also disappointed, providing further evidence of a marginal slowdown in global growth during 2018Q1. BER Weekly, 14 May 2018 Last updated: May 14 2018 11:42AM Last week, global financial markets were focused on US President Trump’s decision to re-impose economic sanctions on Iran. This decision pushed the oil price even higher. On a more positive note, somewhat lower-than-expected US inflation data for April eased read moreLast week, global financial markets were focused on US President Trump’s decision to re-impose economic sanctions on Iran. This decision pushed the oil price even higher. On a more positive note, somewhat lower-than-expected US inflation data for April eased fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be more aggressive with future policy interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the domestic economy is set up for a disappointing growth rate in the first quarter, as both manufacturing and mining output fell in this period. Read more below. In other global news, the Bank of England (BoE) held its policy interest rate unchanged. The dovish sentiment signals that UK interest rates could remain at current levels a bit longer. Besides this, China recorded a trade surplus in April, compared to a deficit in March. Importantly, the surplus with the US widened despite selected tariff hikes by the US. BER Weekly, 7 May 2018 Last updated: May 7 2018 11:30AM The domestic economy started the second quarter on a healthy foot, as indicated by an improvement in the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and higher new vehicles sales in April. Furthermore, an increase in mineral exports to Asia contributed to an read moreThe domestic economy started the second quarter on a healthy foot, as indicated by an improvement in the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and higher new vehicles sales in April. Furthermore, an increase in mineral exports to Asia contributed to an improvement in the trade balance at the end of the first quarter. In the international section, the focus is on the latest job figures from the US while PMI data for the major economies is also discussed. For the Eurozone, US and China, PMI-numbers registered levels above the neutral 50-point mark in April. This indicates that world growth retained its momentum at the start of the second quarter. In the US, besides release of the jobs data, the Federal Reserve (Fed) made no change to its policy interest rate, but confirmed that more hikes will follow. Meanwhile, in financial markets the US dollar continued to strengthen against major currencies and the rand, thereby also contributing to lower commodity prices. BER Weekly_23 April 2018 Last updated: Apr 23 2018 10:21AM Domestic financial markets reacted positively to the lower-than-expected March inflation print. BER Weekly, 16 April 2018 Last updated: Apr 16 2018 10:57AM Global geo-political concerns continued to dominate the news flow last week. Whereas the concerns about a trade war between the US and China eased after conciliatory remarks by the Chinese President, the situation in Syria continues to damage relations read moreGlobal geo-political concerns continued to dominate the news flow last week. Whereas the concerns about a trade war between the US and China eased after conciliatory remarks by the Chinese President, the situation in Syria continues to damage relations between the US and Russia. On the domestic front, manufacturing and mining data for February suggest that the contribution of these sectors to overall GDP growth in 2018Q1 will be limited, if not negative. This adds to the likelihood that quarterly GDP growth will slow significantly relative to the robust 2017Q4 print. Meanwhile, on the international front, higher US headline CPI in March confirmed the view of monetary authorities at the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that underlying price pressure is building. BER Weekly, 9 April 2018 Last updated: Apr 9 2018 12:06PM International news headlines were dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China last week. This also had a bearing on domestic financial markets. More on this in the markets section.The focus of the domestic section is on the Absa Purchasing read moreInternational news headlines were dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China last week. This also had a bearing on domestic financial markets. More on this in the markets section.The focus of the domestic section is on the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March. The PMI suggests that the manufacturing sector may have come under renewed pressure as slower export growth weighed on overall demand. Furthermore, other data showed that domestic new vehicles sales ticked up slightly in March, but that vehicle exports declined for a second month. In the international section, we unpack the latest PMI figures from the US, China and the Eurozone as well as the latest US job numbers (the nonfarm payroll report). The nonfarm payrolls disappointed and significantly undershot the consensus forecast. BER Weekly, 26 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 26 2018 8:04AM Global and domestic financial markets had a lot to digest last week. The US central bank’s latest policy interest rate hike, as well as the guidance of future monetary tightening, dominated international headlines. Furthermore, the narrative surrounding the read moreGlobal and domestic financial markets had a lot to digest last week. The US central bank’s latest policy interest rate hike, as well as the guidance of future monetary tightening, dominated international headlines. Furthermore, the narrative surrounding the threat of global trade wars intensified after the US announced broadbased measures to curb imports from China. While these events had an impact on SA financial markets, local attention was more focused on Moody’s credit rating decision. BER Weekly, 19 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 19 2018 12:03PM Domestic economic data released last week was broadly upbeat. Manufacturing and mining output figures for January showed that annual growth in these sectors edged higher. In addition, business confidence in 2018Q1 registered its best level since the beginning read moreDomestic economic data released last week was broadly upbeat. Manufacturing and mining output figures for January showed that annual growth in these sectors edged higher. In addition, business confidence in 2018Q1 registered its best level since the beginning of 2015. On the international front, data from the US revealed continued soft retail sales growth in February. In addition, markets will this week keep a keen eye on the FOMC announcement as well as Moody’s decision regarding SA’s sovereign debt rating. BER Weekly, 12 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 12 2018 10:58AM In the domestic section, the focus is on the latest GDP growth data. Not only did the 2017Q4 figure surprise on the upside, but major data revisions to the historic data series meant that 2016’s growth rate was also revised higher. The revisions resulted in read moreIn the domestic section, the focus is on the latest GDP growth data. Not only did the 2017Q4 figure surprise on the upside, but major data revisions to the historic data series meant that 2016’s growth rate was also revised higher. The revisions resulted in significant changes in the composition of GDP growth over the past few years, which could have important implications for the growth pattern going forward. In the international section, the latest US job figures as well as US and Chinese trade data are unpacked. The stark difference between the US and China’s trade balances is one of the key reasons for President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on trade protectionism. US job figures were robust, although wage growth slowed. This boosted global stock markets – more on this in the markets section. BER Weekly, 5 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 5 2018 10:22AM Domestic data released last week was somewhat of a mixed bag. On the one hand, SA’s trade deficit ballooned to its worst level on record in January, while vehicle export data for February also remained depressed. However, on the positive side, the Absa read moreDomestic data released last week was somewhat of a mixed bag. On the one hand, SA’s trade deficit ballooned to its worst level on record in January, while vehicle export data for February also remained depressed. However, on the positive side, the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) managed to edge above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since May 2017. These releases, as well as factory-gate inflation figures, are discussed in the domestic section. In the international section we also look at inflation figures, but from the consumer side. Furthermore, the section unpacks US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s first statement to congress and PMI data from China. BER Weekly, 26 February 2018 Last updated: Feb 26 2018 10:01AM The National Budget dominated domestic economic headlines last week. This is both because of the revenue and expenditure details, as well as indications that (along with other economic and political factors) the Budget did enough to stave off a Moody’s read moreThe National Budget dominated domestic economic headlines last week. This is both because of the revenue and expenditure details, as well as indications that (along with other economic and political factors) the Budget did enough to stave off a Moody’s ratings downgrade next month. More detail on this and the latest (January) consumer inflation print here. Internationally, according to the most recent preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for February, global growth is expected to have remained well supported so far in 2018Q1. These, along with global inflation releases, are discussed here. BER Weekly, 19 February 2018 Last updated: Feb 19 2018 12:09PM It was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s read moreIt was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s ascension to the position of ANC president last December. In this edition of the weekly review, the focus is on the domestic labour market on the back of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) – which revealed a drop in the unemployment rate – as well as wholesale and retail trade sales data. This, along with a brief discussion of some of the highlights of President Ramaphosa’s first SONA. On the international front, inflation in both the US and UK was somewhat higher-than-expected in January. For the US, sustained above-consensus inflation prints will add further fuel to the argument that the policy interest rate may be raised by more than previously expected. BER Weekly, 12 February 2018 Last updated: Feb 12 2018 11:23AM Notable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output read moreNotable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output expanded at a faster pace, mining output growth moderated. The latest figures point to a positive contribution from the manufacturing sector to 2017Q4 GDP growth, while mining likely weighed on overall growth. For 2017 as a whole, mining output picked up while manufacturing output declined slightly. In international news, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged. However, officials did hint at the possibility of renewed tightening on the back of stronger global and UK growth, as well as rising inflation expectations. In China, the January Caixin Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) pointed toward a strong start to 2018 following the slightly faster-than-expected expansion in overall economic activity during 2017. BER Weekly, 05 Feburary 2018 Last updated: Feb 5 2018 11:20AM In the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in read moreIn the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in domestic economic activity, there are signs that conditions could improve meaningfully as we head deeper into 2018. In the international section, we discuss the latest labour market data from the US, GDP data from the Eurozone and PMI data from China. In all, these releases point to a continued strengthening in the global economy. BER Weekly, 29 January 2018 Last updated: Jan 29 2018 12:24PM Given a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, most attention continued to be focused on currency movements (see markets section). The domestic section highlights the latest consumer and producer price trends. Both measures accelerated marginally read moreGiven a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, most attention continued to be focused on currency movements (see markets section). The domestic section highlights the latest consumer and producer price trends. Both measures accelerated marginally in December, mostly on the back of a significant rise in the price of petrol. However, for the full year of 2017, consumer and producer price growth was lower than in 2016. The international section deals with the latest flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting and GDP growth numbers for the US and the UK. BER Weekly, 22 January 2018 Last updated: Jan 22 2018 2:03PM Among domestic economic news last week was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate announcement on Thursday. As expected, the repurchase (repo) rate remained unchanged. The decision was accompanied by a downward revision to the Bank’s inflation forecast and read moreAmong domestic economic news last week was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate announcement on Thursday. As expected, the repurchase (repo) rate remained unchanged. The decision was accompanied by a downward revision to the Bank’s inflation forecast and upward adjustment to the growth forecast. Besides monetary policy, domestic retail sales and mining production numbers are also discussed in the domestic section. On the international front, China published its GDP number for the fourth quarter, which was better than expected and in step with the general global upswing. Meanwhile, US consumers felt slightly less optimistic in January, despite the new tax cuts. The major story in domestic financial markets remained the continued strengthening in the value of the rand exchange rate. BER Weekly, 15 January 2018 Last updated: Jan 15 2018 11:50AM The ANC elective conference dominated the local news headlines over the past few weeks. We discuss the market reaction following the outcome of the conference in the markets section below. On the domestic data front, the key releases over the past weeks read moreThe ANC elective conference dominated the local news headlines over the past few weeks. We discuss the market reaction following the outcome of the conference in the markets section below. On the domestic data front, the key releases over the past weeks were official manufacturing statistics for November as well as the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December. While the November output data came out better than expected, the PMI results were disappointing. In sharp contrast, the global economy ended the year on a high note. The J.P. Morgan global manufacturing PMI came in at a near seven-year high in December. The more recent global real economy data confirmed the robustness reflected in the survey data and will be discussed in the international section below.
BER Weekly (Archive) Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings. 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly_18 June 2018 Last updated: Jun 18 2018 12:00PM A raft of domestic data released last week suggested that, after a poor first quarter, the SA economy remained under pressure at the start of 2018Q2. BER Weekly, 11 June 2018 Last updated: Jun 11 2018 10:39AM Over the weekend, welcome news broke that the majority of public sector trade unions had signed a multi-year wage deal with the government. Unfortunately, the costs are significantly more than budgeted for by National Treasury in the February Budget. This read moreOver the weekend, welcome news broke that the majority of public sector trade unions had signed a multi-year wage deal with the government. Unfortunately, the costs are significantly more than budgeted for by National Treasury in the February Budget. This means that the government is faced with some tough choices. The fact that GDP growth disappointed in Q1 and suggests that full-year growth could be lower than forecast by Treasury further complicates matters. This, as well as the latest manufacturing output data, is unpacked in the domestic section. On the international data front, the major releases focussed on trade and the outcomes were essentially fuel on the fire of the trade-war rhetoric coming from the US. The big US trade deficit remains one of US President Donald Trump’s pet peeves. Trump made this clear again on a Twitter rant in the wake of the weekend’s G7 meeting in Canada. BER Weekly, 4 June 2018 Last updated: Jun 4 2018 11:01AM It was a busy week on the domestic data front. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for May showed that the economy is likely to perform better in Q2 compared to Q1. However, the first quarter GDP data to be released read moreIt was a busy week on the domestic data front. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for May showed that the economy is likely to perform better in Q2 compared to Q1. However, the first quarter GDP data to be released tomorrow is likely to be a disappointingly weak print. In the international section, the focus is on the latest employment and inflation data from the US. The job figures came in better than expected, and with inflation remaining steady, this suggests that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains on track to hike its policy interest rate next week. BER Weekly, 28 May 2018 Last updated: May 28 2018 12:13PM In the Domestic section we review the latest interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), as well as consumer price inflation data for April. CPI inflation came in below expectations for April and while the MPC read moreIn the Domestic section we review the latest interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), as well as consumer price inflation data for April. CPI inflation came in below expectations for April and while the MPC judged the risks to the inflation outlook to be on the upside, the lower-than-expected print contributed to a mostly unchanged SARB headline CPI forecast. Finally, as expected, S&P Global Ratings kept its rating for SA’s sovereign debt unchanged at below investment grade. More on the rationale for this decision and the market reaction in the Markets section. In international news, we focus on the flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) for May released around the world. In all, the preliminary numbers paint a mixed picture for global growth. BER Weekly, 21 May 2018 Last updated: May 21 2018 10:56AM Retail and wholesale sales data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) over the week added to concerns of a sharp slowdown (and potentially even an outright contraction) in overall GDP growth in 2018Q1. While sales growth held up reasonably well on a read moreRetail and wholesale sales data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) over the week added to concerns of a sharp slowdown (and potentially even an outright contraction) in overall GDP growth in 2018Q1. While sales growth held up reasonably well on a monthly basis in March, both the retail and wholesale sectors contracted during the first quarter. This adds to weak mining and manufacturing data. On the international front, activity data out of China and Japan also disappointed, providing further evidence of a marginal slowdown in global growth during 2018Q1. BER Weekly, 14 May 2018 Last updated: May 14 2018 11:42AM Last week, global financial markets were focused on US President Trump’s decision to re-impose economic sanctions on Iran. This decision pushed the oil price even higher. On a more positive note, somewhat lower-than-expected US inflation data for April eased read moreLast week, global financial markets were focused on US President Trump’s decision to re-impose economic sanctions on Iran. This decision pushed the oil price even higher. On a more positive note, somewhat lower-than-expected US inflation data for April eased fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be more aggressive with future policy interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the domestic economy is set up for a disappointing growth rate in the first quarter, as both manufacturing and mining output fell in this period. Read more below. In other global news, the Bank of England (BoE) held its policy interest rate unchanged. The dovish sentiment signals that UK interest rates could remain at current levels a bit longer. Besides this, China recorded a trade surplus in April, compared to a deficit in March. Importantly, the surplus with the US widened despite selected tariff hikes by the US. BER Weekly, 7 May 2018 Last updated: May 7 2018 11:30AM The domestic economy started the second quarter on a healthy foot, as indicated by an improvement in the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and higher new vehicles sales in April. Furthermore, an increase in mineral exports to Asia contributed to an read moreThe domestic economy started the second quarter on a healthy foot, as indicated by an improvement in the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and higher new vehicles sales in April. Furthermore, an increase in mineral exports to Asia contributed to an improvement in the trade balance at the end of the first quarter. In the international section, the focus is on the latest job figures from the US while PMI data for the major economies is also discussed. For the Eurozone, US and China, PMI-numbers registered levels above the neutral 50-point mark in April. This indicates that world growth retained its momentum at the start of the second quarter. In the US, besides release of the jobs data, the Federal Reserve (Fed) made no change to its policy interest rate, but confirmed that more hikes will follow. Meanwhile, in financial markets the US dollar continued to strengthen against major currencies and the rand, thereby also contributing to lower commodity prices. BER Weekly_23 April 2018 Last updated: Apr 23 2018 10:21AM Domestic financial markets reacted positively to the lower-than-expected March inflation print. BER Weekly, 16 April 2018 Last updated: Apr 16 2018 10:57AM Global geo-political concerns continued to dominate the news flow last week. Whereas the concerns about a trade war between the US and China eased after conciliatory remarks by the Chinese President, the situation in Syria continues to damage relations read moreGlobal geo-political concerns continued to dominate the news flow last week. Whereas the concerns about a trade war between the US and China eased after conciliatory remarks by the Chinese President, the situation in Syria continues to damage relations between the US and Russia. On the domestic front, manufacturing and mining data for February suggest that the contribution of these sectors to overall GDP growth in 2018Q1 will be limited, if not negative. This adds to the likelihood that quarterly GDP growth will slow significantly relative to the robust 2017Q4 print. Meanwhile, on the international front, higher US headline CPI in March confirmed the view of monetary authorities at the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that underlying price pressure is building. BER Weekly, 9 April 2018 Last updated: Apr 9 2018 12:06PM International news headlines were dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China last week. This also had a bearing on domestic financial markets. More on this in the markets section.The focus of the domestic section is on the Absa Purchasing read moreInternational news headlines were dominated by escalating trade tensions between the US and China last week. This also had a bearing on domestic financial markets. More on this in the markets section.The focus of the domestic section is on the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March. The PMI suggests that the manufacturing sector may have come under renewed pressure as slower export growth weighed on overall demand. Furthermore, other data showed that domestic new vehicles sales ticked up slightly in March, but that vehicle exports declined for a second month. In the international section, we unpack the latest PMI figures from the US, China and the Eurozone as well as the latest US job numbers (the nonfarm payroll report). The nonfarm payrolls disappointed and significantly undershot the consensus forecast. BER Weekly, 26 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 26 2018 8:04AM Global and domestic financial markets had a lot to digest last week. The US central bank’s latest policy interest rate hike, as well as the guidance of future monetary tightening, dominated international headlines. Furthermore, the narrative surrounding the read moreGlobal and domestic financial markets had a lot to digest last week. The US central bank’s latest policy interest rate hike, as well as the guidance of future monetary tightening, dominated international headlines. Furthermore, the narrative surrounding the threat of global trade wars intensified after the US announced broadbased measures to curb imports from China. While these events had an impact on SA financial markets, local attention was more focused on Moody’s credit rating decision. BER Weekly, 19 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 19 2018 12:03PM Domestic economic data released last week was broadly upbeat. Manufacturing and mining output figures for January showed that annual growth in these sectors edged higher. In addition, business confidence in 2018Q1 registered its best level since the beginning read moreDomestic economic data released last week was broadly upbeat. Manufacturing and mining output figures for January showed that annual growth in these sectors edged higher. In addition, business confidence in 2018Q1 registered its best level since the beginning of 2015. On the international front, data from the US revealed continued soft retail sales growth in February. In addition, markets will this week keep a keen eye on the FOMC announcement as well as Moody’s decision regarding SA’s sovereign debt rating. BER Weekly, 12 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 12 2018 10:58AM In the domestic section, the focus is on the latest GDP growth data. Not only did the 2017Q4 figure surprise on the upside, but major data revisions to the historic data series meant that 2016’s growth rate was also revised higher. The revisions resulted in read moreIn the domestic section, the focus is on the latest GDP growth data. Not only did the 2017Q4 figure surprise on the upside, but major data revisions to the historic data series meant that 2016’s growth rate was also revised higher. The revisions resulted in significant changes in the composition of GDP growth over the past few years, which could have important implications for the growth pattern going forward. In the international section, the latest US job figures as well as US and Chinese trade data are unpacked. The stark difference between the US and China’s trade balances is one of the key reasons for President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on trade protectionism. US job figures were robust, although wage growth slowed. This boosted global stock markets – more on this in the markets section. BER Weekly, 5 March 2018 Last updated: Mar 5 2018 10:22AM Domestic data released last week was somewhat of a mixed bag. On the one hand, SA’s trade deficit ballooned to its worst level on record in January, while vehicle export data for February also remained depressed. However, on the positive side, the Absa read moreDomestic data released last week was somewhat of a mixed bag. On the one hand, SA’s trade deficit ballooned to its worst level on record in January, while vehicle export data for February also remained depressed. However, on the positive side, the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) managed to edge above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since May 2017. These releases, as well as factory-gate inflation figures, are discussed in the domestic section. In the international section we also look at inflation figures, but from the consumer side. Furthermore, the section unpacks US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s first statement to congress and PMI data from China. BER Weekly, 26 February 2018 Last updated: Feb 26 2018 10:01AM The National Budget dominated domestic economic headlines last week. This is both because of the revenue and expenditure details, as well as indications that (along with other economic and political factors) the Budget did enough to stave off a Moody’s read moreThe National Budget dominated domestic economic headlines last week. This is both because of the revenue and expenditure details, as well as indications that (along with other economic and political factors) the Budget did enough to stave off a Moody’s ratings downgrade next month. More detail on this and the latest (January) consumer inflation print here. Internationally, according to the most recent preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for February, global growth is expected to have remained well supported so far in 2018Q1. These, along with global inflation releases, are discussed here. BER Weekly, 19 February 2018 Last updated: Feb 19 2018 12:09PM It was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s read moreIt was a dramatic week on the local front with the resignation of former President Jacob Zuma, the swearing in of a new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Friday. This follows weeks of speculation following Ramaphosa’s ascension to the position of ANC president last December. In this edition of the weekly review, the focus is on the domestic labour market on the back of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) – which revealed a drop in the unemployment rate – as well as wholesale and retail trade sales data. This, along with a brief discussion of some of the highlights of President Ramaphosa’s first SONA. On the international front, inflation in both the US and UK was somewhat higher-than-expected in January. For the US, sustained above-consensus inflation prints will add further fuel to the argument that the policy interest rate may be raised by more than previously expected. BER Weekly, 12 February 2018 Last updated: Feb 12 2018 11:23AM Notable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output read moreNotable losses (and volatility) on global stock and bond markets dominated economic headlines last week. On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released mining and manufacturing output figures for December 2017. While manufacturing output expanded at a faster pace, mining output growth moderated. The latest figures point to a positive contribution from the manufacturing sector to 2017Q4 GDP growth, while mining likely weighed on overall growth. For 2017 as a whole, mining output picked up while manufacturing output declined slightly. In international news, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged. However, officials did hint at the possibility of renewed tightening on the back of stronger global and UK growth, as well as rising inflation expectations. In China, the January Caixin Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) pointed toward a strong start to 2018 following the slightly faster-than-expected expansion in overall economic activity during 2017. BER Weekly, 05 Feburary 2018 Last updated: Feb 5 2018 11:20AM In the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in read moreIn the domestic section, we unpack the latest survey data released by the BER, including the 2017Q4 FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and the January Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). While the survey results point to continued sluggish growth in domestic economic activity, there are signs that conditions could improve meaningfully as we head deeper into 2018. In the international section, we discuss the latest labour market data from the US, GDP data from the Eurozone and PMI data from China. In all, these releases point to a continued strengthening in the global economy. BER Weekly, 29 January 2018 Last updated: Jan 29 2018 12:24PM Given a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, most attention continued to be focused on currency movements (see markets section). The domestic section highlights the latest consumer and producer price trends. Both measures accelerated marginally read moreGiven a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, most attention continued to be focused on currency movements (see markets section). The domestic section highlights the latest consumer and producer price trends. Both measures accelerated marginally in December, mostly on the back of a significant rise in the price of petrol. However, for the full year of 2017, consumer and producer price growth was lower than in 2016. The international section deals with the latest flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting and GDP growth numbers for the US and the UK. BER Weekly, 22 January 2018 Last updated: Jan 22 2018 2:03PM Among domestic economic news last week was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate announcement on Thursday. As expected, the repurchase (repo) rate remained unchanged. The decision was accompanied by a downward revision to the Bank’s inflation forecast and read moreAmong domestic economic news last week was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate announcement on Thursday. As expected, the repurchase (repo) rate remained unchanged. The decision was accompanied by a downward revision to the Bank’s inflation forecast and upward adjustment to the growth forecast. Besides monetary policy, domestic retail sales and mining production numbers are also discussed in the domestic section. On the international front, China published its GDP number for the fourth quarter, which was better than expected and in step with the general global upswing. Meanwhile, US consumers felt slightly less optimistic in January, despite the new tax cuts. The major story in domestic financial markets remained the continued strengthening in the value of the rand exchange rate. BER Weekly, 15 January 2018 Last updated: Jan 15 2018 11:50AM The ANC elective conference dominated the local news headlines over the past few weeks. We discuss the market reaction following the outcome of the conference in the markets section below. On the domestic data front, the key releases over the past weeks read moreThe ANC elective conference dominated the local news headlines over the past few weeks. We discuss the market reaction following the outcome of the conference in the markets section below. On the domestic data front, the key releases over the past weeks were official manufacturing statistics for November as well as the Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December. While the November output data came out better than expected, the PMI results were disappointing. In sharp contrast, the global economy ended the year on a high note. The J.P. Morgan global manufacturing PMI came in at a near seven-year high in December. The more recent global real economy data confirmed the robustness reflected in the survey data and will be discussed in the international section below.