Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report BER Weekly (Archive) Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings. 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 2 Aug 2021 Last updated: Aug 2 2021 8:20AM With relative calm restored to KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng last week, attention turned to government’s response to the adverse impact of recent events on individuals, firms and the broader economy. The economy suffered an additional setback last week when read moreWith relative calm restored to KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng last week, attention turned to government’s response to the adverse impact of recent events on individuals, firms and the broader economy. The economy suffered an additional setback last week when an IT security breach at Transnet severely disrupted operations at SA’s major ports. BER Weekly, 26 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 26 2021 8:17AM After the riots and unrest of the previous week, last week was fortunately calmer on that front. Nonetheless, the stream of updates of the structural damage to some private businesses and public facilities confirms our assessment that it will take some time read moreAfter the riots and unrest of the previous week, last week was fortunately calmer on that front. Nonetheless, the stream of updates of the structural damage to some private businesses and public facilities confirms our assessment that it will take some time for these to be rebuilt and to fully get back online. BER Weekly, 19 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 19 2021 8:08AM The domestic GDP recovery from the 2020 crash was dealt another hefty blow last week. It is impossible to fully summarise and digest last week’s dramatic domestic events in the Weekly. It was a week in which socio-economic and political tensions finally read moreThe domestic GDP recovery from the 2020 crash was dealt another hefty blow last week. It is impossible to fully summarise and digest last week’s dramatic domestic events in the Weekly. It was a week in which socio-economic and political tensions finally boiled over. BER Weekly, 12 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 12 2021 8:14AM With a quiet week on the domestic data front, all eyes were on Nkandla to see whether former president Jacob Zuma would be arrested/hand himself over before midnight on Wednesday. Another key focus of the week was whether the adjusted level 4 lockdown read moreWith a quiet week on the domestic data front, all eyes were on Nkandla to see whether former president Jacob Zuma would be arrested/hand himself over before midnight on Wednesday. Another key focus of the week was whether the adjusted level 4 lockdown regulations would be extended. BER Weekly, 5 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 5 2021 7:59AM Last week was a busy one, dominated by a sustained surge in domestic cases of COVID-19, lots of local and international data releases, as well as some key domestic political developments. BER Weekly, 28 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 28 2021 7:45AM The focus domestically remained on the concerning trajectory of the COVID-19 third wave, especially in Gauteng. With cases surging, likely driven by the significantly more transmissible Delta variant that ravaged India recently and is also driving cases read moreThe focus domestically remained on the concerning trajectory of the COVID-19 third wave, especially in Gauteng. With cases surging, likely driven by the significantly more transmissible Delta variant that ravaged India recently and is also driving cases higher in the UK, the Gauteng provincial authorities came under increased pressure for being ill-prepared for the third wave. The week ended with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing harsher (adjusted level 4) lockdown measures. The latest tightening of restrictions came within two weeks of the country being moved to adjusted level 3 of the lockdown. BER Weekly, 21 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 21 2021 8:00AM In a holiday-shortened week, the domestic focus was on the worrying trajectory in new COVID-19 cases, especially in Gauteng, as well as government’s decision to move the country back to alert level 3 of lockdown restrictions and progress updates regarding read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, the domestic focus was on the worrying trajectory in new COVID-19 cases, especially in Gauteng, as well as government’s decision to move the country back to alert level 3 of lockdown restrictions and progress updates regarding SA’s vaccine rollout. Global and financial market headlines were dominated by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate announcement midweek. While no changes to the Fed’s current policy stance were expected, or indeed announced, the more hawkish-than-expected projections from the Fed’s voting committee on when they expect the first interest rate increase jolted markets, including the rand exchange rate. BER Weekly, 14 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 14 2021 7:59AM What a week it has been. Globally, US CPI inflation again rose by more than expected in May, exceeding 5% y-o-y for the first time since 2008. In most other weeks, this may have attracted a lot of local attention. However, in this case, the US news was read moreWhat a week it has been. Globally, US CPI inflation again rose by more than expected in May, exceeding 5% y-o-y for the first time since 2008. In most other weeks, this may have attracted a lot of local attention. However, in this case, the US news was overshadowed by several crucial SA-focused developments. BER Weekly, 7 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 7 2021 7:58AM Last week was ridden by rolling blackouts, although there was some reprieve on Friday afternoon on Parliament’s request so it could pass a number of Appropriation Bills. However, this meant that load-shedding continued through most of the weekend. Local news read moreLast week was ridden by rolling blackouts, although there was some reprieve on Friday afternoon on Parliament’s request so it could pass a number of Appropriation Bills. However, this meant that load-shedding continued through most of the weekend. Local news headlines were further dominated by the record-high unemployment rate and continued revelations of alleged corruption at the Department of Health. Globally, the focus was on the US jobs report for May after the significantly weaker-than-expected outcome in the previous month. BER Weekly, 31 May 2021 Last updated: May 31 2021 8:16AM Daily new COVID-19 cases in SA continue to rise closer to the official threshold of a third wave. Given the concerning virus trajectory, including that the Free State, Northern Cape, North West and Gauteng are already officially in a third wave, President read moreDaily new COVID-19 cases in SA continue to rise closer to the official threshold of a third wave. Given the concerning virus trajectory, including that the Free State, Northern Cape, North West and Gauteng are already officially in a third wave, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced some tightening of lockdown restrictions last night. BER Weekly, 24 May 2021 Last updated: May 24 2021 7:51AM The focus domestically was on consumer-related data releases last week, as well as the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy interest rate decision on Thursday. Consumer inflation (CPI) figures in SA, the UK and the Eurozone fitted nicely with the description of read moreThe focus domestically was on consumer-related data releases last week, as well as the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy interest rate decision on Thursday. Consumer inflation (CPI) figures in SA, the UK and the Eurozone fitted nicely with the description of the main drivers of building price pressure in the previous Weekly Review after the release of the April US CPI data. Last week also saw the start of phase 2 of SA’s vaccination drive. Meanwhile, daily new domestic COVID-19 infections continued to tick up. BER Weekly, 17 May 2021 Last updated: May 17 2021 7:53AM Two major issues were top of mind last week. First, the accelerated resurgence in new COVID-19 cases in SA. Second, the release of US inflation data that fuelled renewed concern that price pressures could be sustained at uncomfortably high levels, ultimately read moreTwo major issues were top of mind last week. First, the accelerated resurgence in new COVID-19 cases in SA. Second, the release of US inflation data that fuelled renewed concern that price pressures could be sustained at uncomfortably high levels, ultimately forcing the hand of central banks to tighten monetary policy more pre-emptively than the current consensus BER Weekly, 10 May 2021 Last updated: May 10 2021 7:53AM Last week saw a number of noteworthy developments, with domestic COVID-19 and political developments attracting most attention. The biggest market-moving economic data release over the past week was the April US nonfarm payroll release late on Friday. read moreLast week saw a number of noteworthy developments, with domestic COVID-19 and political developments attracting most attention. The biggest market-moving economic data release over the past week was the April US nonfarm payroll release late on Friday. BER Weekly, 3 May 2021 Last updated: May 3 2021 7:58AM In a holiday-shortened week, domestic financial markets had plenty of local and international data to digest last week. On the political front, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s highly anticipated testimony before the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into state capture read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, domestic financial markets had plenty of local and international data to digest last week. On the political front, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s highly anticipated testimony before the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into state capture dominated local headlines. However, the president’s appearance did not reveal much, if anything, that we did not know already. BER Weekly, 26 April 2021 Last updated: Apr 26 2021 8:28AM In a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, a key focus was on the outcome of Friday’s public sector wage negotiations. Public sector wages make up just over 30% of government’s consolidated expenditure and if government is unable to stick to its read moreIn a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, a key focus was on the outcome of Friday’s public sector wage negotiations. Public sector wages make up just over 30% of government’s consolidated expenditure and if government is unable to stick to its intention of implementing an effective wage freeze, it will derail its expenditure-based fiscal consolidation drive. BER Weekly, 19 April 2021 Last updated: Apr 19 2021 7:43AM Last week’s data releases for SA and in particular the US bode well for the GDP growth outlook in 2021. In SA, the incoming data for 2021Q1 suggests that the GDP recovery continued in the first three months of the year, albeit that the growth momentum likely read moreLast week’s data releases for SA and in particular the US bode well for the GDP growth outlook in 2021. In SA, the incoming data for 2021Q1 suggests that the GDP recovery continued in the first three months of the year, albeit that the growth momentum likely softened further. Nevertheless, relative to the start of the year when we expected a negative q-o-q 2021Q1 GDP print, the data has come in better than expected. BER Weekly, 12 April 2021 Last updated: Apr 12 2021 6:52AM In the two weeks since the previous weekly release, the global newsflow on COVID-19 has seesawed. There were positive headlines as vaccine rollouts in many countries (excluding SA unfortunately) continued, resulting in a brighter outlook for global growth. read moreIn the two weeks since the previous weekly release, the global newsflow on COVID-19 has seesawed. There were positive headlines as vaccine rollouts in many countries (excluding SA unfortunately) continued, resulting in a brighter outlook for global growth. However, this was countered by growing concerns about the near-term impact of renewed lockdowns implemented (mainly in Europe) and side-effect issues of the AstraZeneca shot. The possible impact on growth and price dynamics due to persistent supply-chain disruptions and shortages of key components, such as semiconductors used in transport manufacturing, also featured in global – and local – headlines. BER Weekly, 29 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 29 2021 7:27AM Following a few weeks that were not overly dominated by COVID-19 developments, unpleasant virus trends in Europe were a key focus last week. Stricter lockdowns in parts of Europe amid yet another resurgence in infections led to renewed concerns about the read moreFollowing a few weeks that were not overly dominated by COVID-19 developments, unpleasant virus trends in Europe were a key focus last week. Stricter lockdowns in parts of Europe amid yet another resurgence in infections led to renewed concerns about the global demand for key commodities. BER Weekly, 19 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 19 2021 7:59AM Despite it being only a couple of days since the release of the previous Weekly, a lot has happened. From an economic perspective, the most important local developments were probably on the energy supply front. The international focus was on the US, with the read moreDespite it being only a couple of days since the release of the previous Weekly, a lot has happened. From an economic perspective, the most important local developments were probably on the energy supply front. The international focus was on the US, with the roll-out of the $1.9 trillion stimulus programme and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate call and updated economic projections. BER Weekly, 15 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 15 2021 8:09AM Last week was a busy one on the domestic data front, with key quarterly and monthly releases published by Stats SA, the SA Reserve Bank and the BER. While the Q4 GDP data came out better than expected, the return of load-shedding stole some of the shine as it read moreLast week was a busy one on the domestic data front, with key quarterly and monthly releases published by Stats SA, the SA Reserve Bank and the BER. While the Q4 GDP data came out better than expected, the return of load-shedding stole some of the shine as it once again highlighted one of the key downside risks for the 2021 real GDP growth outlook. BER Weekly, 8 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 8 2021 7:09AM Some weeks more than others one is struck by the large amount of work that still needs to be done to mend the trust deficit between the key social partners in SA, and to improve institutions. Last week was one of those weeks. read moreSome weeks more than others one is struck by the large amount of work that still needs to be done to mend the trust deficit between the key social partners in SA, and to improve institutions. Last week was one of those weeks. BER Weekly, 1 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 1 2021 9:09AM Even with the release of data showing a record high unemployment rate in 2020Q4, it turned out to be a fairly good week for the SA economy. Daily new COVID-19 infections remained well contained, while the second batch of 80 000 J&J vaccines arrived (albeit read moreEven with the release of data showing a record high unemployment rate in 2020Q4, it turned out to be a fairly good week for the SA economy. Daily new COVID-19 infections remained well contained, while the second batch of 80 000 J&J vaccines arrived (albeit controversially with the grounded SAA being the carrier). In addition, relative to the October 2020 budget statement, the 2021 budget outlined a much-improved debt trajectory. The week ended on a positive note with the announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa that the country moved to Alert Level 1 lockdown restrictions from late last night. BER Weekly, 22 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 22 2021 8:20AM As is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the read moreAs is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the inflation release, the domestic data releases continued to show that there was still some recovery momentum in 2020Q4. Probably the most welcome news of the week was that, after some delay, SA started its vaccination rollout to frontline health workers. BER Weekly, 15 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 15 2021 8:57AM All eyes were on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (SONA) on Thursday – a day after the first bout of stage 3 load-shedding this year. Usually a glitzy affair, the SONA was toned down significantly this year. Regarding the speech, it was read moreAll eyes were on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (SONA) on Thursday – a day after the first bout of stage 3 load-shedding this year. Usually a glitzy affair, the SONA was toned down significantly this year. Regarding the speech, it was more focused than in recent years, with some important commitments made. As always, the question is how many of these will see the light of day. Given the dreadful track record on policy implementation, the address received a fairly lukewarm response. BER Weekly, 8 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 8 2021 9:47AM The week started on a positive note with the arrival of SA’s first COVID-19 vaccines and the lifting of some Level 3 lockdown restrictions. However, it ended on a sour note with stage 2 load-shedding and confirmation that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not read moreThe week started on a positive note with the arrival of SA’s first COVID-19 vaccines and the lifting of some Level 3 lockdown restrictions. However, it ended on a sour note with stage 2 load-shedding and confirmation that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not provide sufficient protection against mild cases of the COVID-19 variant that fuelled SA’s second virus wave. BER Weekly, 1 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 1 2021 8:19AM Last week was another busy one, with the overall newsflow a bit of a mixed bag. Encouragingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its global growth forecast for this year, but, like the BER, turned more pessimistic about SA’s prospects. On the read moreLast week was another busy one, with the overall newsflow a bit of a mixed bag. Encouragingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its global growth forecast for this year, but, like the BER, turned more pessimistic about SA’s prospects. On the global data front, the first estimate of US Q4 GDP data turned out slightly lower than expected, while European figures surprised on the upside. Locally, domestic data for December generally came out slightly better than expected, but the outlook remains uncertain. BER Weekly, 25 January 2021 Last updated: Jan 25 2021 9:46AM There was again lots to digest last week, including more SA data releases for November 2020. In general, the figures signalled some downside risk to the 2020Q4 GDP print. At this stage, we still expect a positive (q-o-q) GDP number, but the slowdown after the read moreThere was again lots to digest last week, including more SA data releases for November 2020. In general, the figures signalled some downside risk to the 2020Q4 GDP print. At this stage, we still expect a positive (q-o-q) GDP number, but the slowdown after the strong Q3 rebound now looks to have been more pronounced. In other news, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repo policy rate unchanged at 3.5%, with a 3-2 vote split. BER Weekly, 18 January 2021 Last updated: Jan 18 2021 9:06AM In short, last week’s local news headlines made for sombre reading. On the economic front, November manufacturing data surprised on the downside, although an upward revision to October’s print means that the sector is still on track for another sizeable read moreIn short, last week’s local news headlines made for sombre reading. On the economic front, November manufacturing data surprised on the downside, although an upward revision to October’s print means that the sector is still on track for another sizeable positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth in Q4. The picture for Q1 is more muted after stage 2 load-shedding was implemented from Tuesday. BER Weekly, 11 January 2021 Last updated: Jan 11 2021 8:49AM It has been a busy start to the year with lots to digest already. The narrative late last year that 2021 would be a year of two halves for the global and SA economy was reinforced last week.
BER Weekly (Archive) Short report that reviews important global and domestic financial market and economic data developments of the past week. The BER Weekly is released on Monday mornings. 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 2 Aug 2021 Last updated: Aug 2 2021 8:20AM With relative calm restored to KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng last week, attention turned to government’s response to the adverse impact of recent events on individuals, firms and the broader economy. The economy suffered an additional setback last week when read moreWith relative calm restored to KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng last week, attention turned to government’s response to the adverse impact of recent events on individuals, firms and the broader economy. The economy suffered an additional setback last week when an IT security breach at Transnet severely disrupted operations at SA’s major ports. BER Weekly, 26 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 26 2021 8:17AM After the riots and unrest of the previous week, last week was fortunately calmer on that front. Nonetheless, the stream of updates of the structural damage to some private businesses and public facilities confirms our assessment that it will take some time read moreAfter the riots and unrest of the previous week, last week was fortunately calmer on that front. Nonetheless, the stream of updates of the structural damage to some private businesses and public facilities confirms our assessment that it will take some time for these to be rebuilt and to fully get back online. BER Weekly, 19 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 19 2021 8:08AM The domestic GDP recovery from the 2020 crash was dealt another hefty blow last week. It is impossible to fully summarise and digest last week’s dramatic domestic events in the Weekly. It was a week in which socio-economic and political tensions finally read moreThe domestic GDP recovery from the 2020 crash was dealt another hefty blow last week. It is impossible to fully summarise and digest last week’s dramatic domestic events in the Weekly. It was a week in which socio-economic and political tensions finally boiled over. BER Weekly, 12 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 12 2021 8:14AM With a quiet week on the domestic data front, all eyes were on Nkandla to see whether former president Jacob Zuma would be arrested/hand himself over before midnight on Wednesday. Another key focus of the week was whether the adjusted level 4 lockdown read moreWith a quiet week on the domestic data front, all eyes were on Nkandla to see whether former president Jacob Zuma would be arrested/hand himself over before midnight on Wednesday. Another key focus of the week was whether the adjusted level 4 lockdown regulations would be extended. BER Weekly, 5 July 2021 Last updated: Jul 5 2021 7:59AM Last week was a busy one, dominated by a sustained surge in domestic cases of COVID-19, lots of local and international data releases, as well as some key domestic political developments. BER Weekly, 28 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 28 2021 7:45AM The focus domestically remained on the concerning trajectory of the COVID-19 third wave, especially in Gauteng. With cases surging, likely driven by the significantly more transmissible Delta variant that ravaged India recently and is also driving cases read moreThe focus domestically remained on the concerning trajectory of the COVID-19 third wave, especially in Gauteng. With cases surging, likely driven by the significantly more transmissible Delta variant that ravaged India recently and is also driving cases higher in the UK, the Gauteng provincial authorities came under increased pressure for being ill-prepared for the third wave. The week ended with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing harsher (adjusted level 4) lockdown measures. The latest tightening of restrictions came within two weeks of the country being moved to adjusted level 3 of the lockdown. BER Weekly, 21 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 21 2021 8:00AM In a holiday-shortened week, the domestic focus was on the worrying trajectory in new COVID-19 cases, especially in Gauteng, as well as government’s decision to move the country back to alert level 3 of lockdown restrictions and progress updates regarding read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, the domestic focus was on the worrying trajectory in new COVID-19 cases, especially in Gauteng, as well as government’s decision to move the country back to alert level 3 of lockdown restrictions and progress updates regarding SA’s vaccine rollout. Global and financial market headlines were dominated by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate announcement midweek. While no changes to the Fed’s current policy stance were expected, or indeed announced, the more hawkish-than-expected projections from the Fed’s voting committee on when they expect the first interest rate increase jolted markets, including the rand exchange rate. BER Weekly, 14 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 14 2021 7:59AM What a week it has been. Globally, US CPI inflation again rose by more than expected in May, exceeding 5% y-o-y for the first time since 2008. In most other weeks, this may have attracted a lot of local attention. However, in this case, the US news was read moreWhat a week it has been. Globally, US CPI inflation again rose by more than expected in May, exceeding 5% y-o-y for the first time since 2008. In most other weeks, this may have attracted a lot of local attention. However, in this case, the US news was overshadowed by several crucial SA-focused developments. BER Weekly, 7 June 2021 Last updated: Jun 7 2021 7:58AM Last week was ridden by rolling blackouts, although there was some reprieve on Friday afternoon on Parliament’s request so it could pass a number of Appropriation Bills. However, this meant that load-shedding continued through most of the weekend. Local news read moreLast week was ridden by rolling blackouts, although there was some reprieve on Friday afternoon on Parliament’s request so it could pass a number of Appropriation Bills. However, this meant that load-shedding continued through most of the weekend. Local news headlines were further dominated by the record-high unemployment rate and continued revelations of alleged corruption at the Department of Health. Globally, the focus was on the US jobs report for May after the significantly weaker-than-expected outcome in the previous month. BER Weekly, 31 May 2021 Last updated: May 31 2021 8:16AM Daily new COVID-19 cases in SA continue to rise closer to the official threshold of a third wave. Given the concerning virus trajectory, including that the Free State, Northern Cape, North West and Gauteng are already officially in a third wave, President read moreDaily new COVID-19 cases in SA continue to rise closer to the official threshold of a third wave. Given the concerning virus trajectory, including that the Free State, Northern Cape, North West and Gauteng are already officially in a third wave, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced some tightening of lockdown restrictions last night. BER Weekly, 24 May 2021 Last updated: May 24 2021 7:51AM The focus domestically was on consumer-related data releases last week, as well as the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy interest rate decision on Thursday. Consumer inflation (CPI) figures in SA, the UK and the Eurozone fitted nicely with the description of read moreThe focus domestically was on consumer-related data releases last week, as well as the SA Reserve Bank’s (SARB) policy interest rate decision on Thursday. Consumer inflation (CPI) figures in SA, the UK and the Eurozone fitted nicely with the description of the main drivers of building price pressure in the previous Weekly Review after the release of the April US CPI data. Last week also saw the start of phase 2 of SA’s vaccination drive. Meanwhile, daily new domestic COVID-19 infections continued to tick up. BER Weekly, 17 May 2021 Last updated: May 17 2021 7:53AM Two major issues were top of mind last week. First, the accelerated resurgence in new COVID-19 cases in SA. Second, the release of US inflation data that fuelled renewed concern that price pressures could be sustained at uncomfortably high levels, ultimately read moreTwo major issues were top of mind last week. First, the accelerated resurgence in new COVID-19 cases in SA. Second, the release of US inflation data that fuelled renewed concern that price pressures could be sustained at uncomfortably high levels, ultimately forcing the hand of central banks to tighten monetary policy more pre-emptively than the current consensus BER Weekly, 10 May 2021 Last updated: May 10 2021 7:53AM Last week saw a number of noteworthy developments, with domestic COVID-19 and political developments attracting most attention. The biggest market-moving economic data release over the past week was the April US nonfarm payroll release late on Friday. read moreLast week saw a number of noteworthy developments, with domestic COVID-19 and political developments attracting most attention. The biggest market-moving economic data release over the past week was the April US nonfarm payroll release late on Friday. BER Weekly, 3 May 2021 Last updated: May 3 2021 7:58AM In a holiday-shortened week, domestic financial markets had plenty of local and international data to digest last week. On the political front, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s highly anticipated testimony before the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into state capture read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, domestic financial markets had plenty of local and international data to digest last week. On the political front, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s highly anticipated testimony before the Zondo Commission of Inquiry into state capture dominated local headlines. However, the president’s appearance did not reveal much, if anything, that we did not know already. BER Weekly, 26 April 2021 Last updated: Apr 26 2021 8:28AM In a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, a key focus was on the outcome of Friday’s public sector wage negotiations. Public sector wages make up just over 30% of government’s consolidated expenditure and if government is unable to stick to its read moreIn a relatively quiet week on the domestic data front, a key focus was on the outcome of Friday’s public sector wage negotiations. Public sector wages make up just over 30% of government’s consolidated expenditure and if government is unable to stick to its intention of implementing an effective wage freeze, it will derail its expenditure-based fiscal consolidation drive. BER Weekly, 19 April 2021 Last updated: Apr 19 2021 7:43AM Last week’s data releases for SA and in particular the US bode well for the GDP growth outlook in 2021. In SA, the incoming data for 2021Q1 suggests that the GDP recovery continued in the first three months of the year, albeit that the growth momentum likely read moreLast week’s data releases for SA and in particular the US bode well for the GDP growth outlook in 2021. In SA, the incoming data for 2021Q1 suggests that the GDP recovery continued in the first three months of the year, albeit that the growth momentum likely softened further. Nevertheless, relative to the start of the year when we expected a negative q-o-q 2021Q1 GDP print, the data has come in better than expected. BER Weekly, 12 April 2021 Last updated: Apr 12 2021 6:52AM In the two weeks since the previous weekly release, the global newsflow on COVID-19 has seesawed. There were positive headlines as vaccine rollouts in many countries (excluding SA unfortunately) continued, resulting in a brighter outlook for global growth. read moreIn the two weeks since the previous weekly release, the global newsflow on COVID-19 has seesawed. There were positive headlines as vaccine rollouts in many countries (excluding SA unfortunately) continued, resulting in a brighter outlook for global growth. However, this was countered by growing concerns about the near-term impact of renewed lockdowns implemented (mainly in Europe) and side-effect issues of the AstraZeneca shot. The possible impact on growth and price dynamics due to persistent supply-chain disruptions and shortages of key components, such as semiconductors used in transport manufacturing, also featured in global – and local – headlines. BER Weekly, 29 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 29 2021 7:27AM Following a few weeks that were not overly dominated by COVID-19 developments, unpleasant virus trends in Europe were a key focus last week. Stricter lockdowns in parts of Europe amid yet another resurgence in infections led to renewed concerns about the read moreFollowing a few weeks that were not overly dominated by COVID-19 developments, unpleasant virus trends in Europe were a key focus last week. Stricter lockdowns in parts of Europe amid yet another resurgence in infections led to renewed concerns about the global demand for key commodities. BER Weekly, 19 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 19 2021 7:59AM Despite it being only a couple of days since the release of the previous Weekly, a lot has happened. From an economic perspective, the most important local developments were probably on the energy supply front. The international focus was on the US, with the read moreDespite it being only a couple of days since the release of the previous Weekly, a lot has happened. From an economic perspective, the most important local developments were probably on the energy supply front. The international focus was on the US, with the roll-out of the $1.9 trillion stimulus programme and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate call and updated economic projections. BER Weekly, 15 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 15 2021 8:09AM Last week was a busy one on the domestic data front, with key quarterly and monthly releases published by Stats SA, the SA Reserve Bank and the BER. While the Q4 GDP data came out better than expected, the return of load-shedding stole some of the shine as it read moreLast week was a busy one on the domestic data front, with key quarterly and monthly releases published by Stats SA, the SA Reserve Bank and the BER. While the Q4 GDP data came out better than expected, the return of load-shedding stole some of the shine as it once again highlighted one of the key downside risks for the 2021 real GDP growth outlook. BER Weekly, 8 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 8 2021 7:09AM Some weeks more than others one is struck by the large amount of work that still needs to be done to mend the trust deficit between the key social partners in SA, and to improve institutions. Last week was one of those weeks. read moreSome weeks more than others one is struck by the large amount of work that still needs to be done to mend the trust deficit between the key social partners in SA, and to improve institutions. Last week was one of those weeks. BER Weekly, 1 March 2021 Last updated: Mar 1 2021 9:09AM Even with the release of data showing a record high unemployment rate in 2020Q4, it turned out to be a fairly good week for the SA economy. Daily new COVID-19 infections remained well contained, while the second batch of 80 000 J&J vaccines arrived (albeit read moreEven with the release of data showing a record high unemployment rate in 2020Q4, it turned out to be a fairly good week for the SA economy. Daily new COVID-19 infections remained well contained, while the second batch of 80 000 J&J vaccines arrived (albeit controversially with the grounded SAA being the carrier). In addition, relative to the October 2020 budget statement, the 2021 budget outlined a much-improved debt trajectory. The week ended on a positive note with the announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa that the country moved to Alert Level 1 lockdown restrictions from late last night. BER Weekly, 22 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 22 2021 8:20AM As is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the read moreAs is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the inflation release, the domestic data releases continued to show that there was still some recovery momentum in 2020Q4. Probably the most welcome news of the week was that, after some delay, SA started its vaccination rollout to frontline health workers. BER Weekly, 15 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 15 2021 8:57AM All eyes were on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (SONA) on Thursday – a day after the first bout of stage 3 load-shedding this year. Usually a glitzy affair, the SONA was toned down significantly this year. Regarding the speech, it was read moreAll eyes were on President Cyril Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (SONA) on Thursday – a day after the first bout of stage 3 load-shedding this year. Usually a glitzy affair, the SONA was toned down significantly this year. Regarding the speech, it was more focused than in recent years, with some important commitments made. As always, the question is how many of these will see the light of day. Given the dreadful track record on policy implementation, the address received a fairly lukewarm response. BER Weekly, 8 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 8 2021 9:47AM The week started on a positive note with the arrival of SA’s first COVID-19 vaccines and the lifting of some Level 3 lockdown restrictions. However, it ended on a sour note with stage 2 load-shedding and confirmation that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not read moreThe week started on a positive note with the arrival of SA’s first COVID-19 vaccines and the lifting of some Level 3 lockdown restrictions. However, it ended on a sour note with stage 2 load-shedding and confirmation that the AstraZeneca vaccine does not provide sufficient protection against mild cases of the COVID-19 variant that fuelled SA’s second virus wave. BER Weekly, 1 February 2021 Last updated: Feb 1 2021 8:19AM Last week was another busy one, with the overall newsflow a bit of a mixed bag. Encouragingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its global growth forecast for this year, but, like the BER, turned more pessimistic about SA’s prospects. On the read moreLast week was another busy one, with the overall newsflow a bit of a mixed bag. Encouragingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lifted its global growth forecast for this year, but, like the BER, turned more pessimistic about SA’s prospects. On the global data front, the first estimate of US Q4 GDP data turned out slightly lower than expected, while European figures surprised on the upside. Locally, domestic data for December generally came out slightly better than expected, but the outlook remains uncertain. BER Weekly, 25 January 2021 Last updated: Jan 25 2021 9:46AM There was again lots to digest last week, including more SA data releases for November 2020. In general, the figures signalled some downside risk to the 2020Q4 GDP print. At this stage, we still expect a positive (q-o-q) GDP number, but the slowdown after the read moreThere was again lots to digest last week, including more SA data releases for November 2020. In general, the figures signalled some downside risk to the 2020Q4 GDP print. At this stage, we still expect a positive (q-o-q) GDP number, but the slowdown after the strong Q3 rebound now looks to have been more pronounced. In other news, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) kept the repo policy rate unchanged at 3.5%, with a 3-2 vote split. BER Weekly, 18 January 2021 Last updated: Jan 18 2021 9:06AM In short, last week’s local news headlines made for sombre reading. On the economic front, November manufacturing data surprised on the downside, although an upward revision to October’s print means that the sector is still on track for another sizeable read moreIn short, last week’s local news headlines made for sombre reading. On the economic front, November manufacturing data surprised on the downside, although an upward revision to October’s print means that the sector is still on track for another sizeable positive contribution to quarterly GDP growth in Q4. The picture for Q1 is more muted after stage 2 load-shedding was implemented from Tuesday. BER Weekly, 11 January 2021 Last updated: Jan 11 2021 8:49AM It has been a busy start to the year with lots to digest already. The narrative late last year that 2021 would be a year of two halves for the global and SA economy was reinforced last week.