Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report (Archive) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 16 May 2022 Last updated: May 16 2022 7:27AM Data out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. read moreData out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. Looking into the current quarter, besides the weak impulse from the rest of the world, the incoming SA-specific news remains downbeat for GDP momentum. BER Weekly, 9 May 2022 Last updated: May 9 2022 7:53AM The international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus read moreThe international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus was on the PMI releases for April, which deteriorated on the back of the devastating flooding in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) as well as stage four load-shedding during the month. BER Weekly, 29 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 29 2022 12:53PM In this edition, we focus on the impending COVID-19 fifth wave in SA, as well as review the first estimates of 2022Q1 GDP in the US and the Eurozone. BER Weekly, 25 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 25 2022 7:23AM The near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that read moreThe near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that pressure is building on Q2 GDP. BER Weekly, 11 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 11 2022 7:26AM Besides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could read moreBesides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could significantly ramp up the pace of monetary policy tightening in the rest of the year. BER Weekly, 4 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 4 2022 7:14AM The week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The read moreThe week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The local data was mixed, with the 2021Q4 labour market figures coming out relatively grim, but the economic releases for 2022 and tax revenue data for 2021/22 were fairly upbeat. On the global front, US and especially Eurozone inflation figures once again came out higher than expected, while the US jobs data was slightly weaker than anticipated BER Weekly, 28 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 28 2022 7:42AM Besides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) read moreBesides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including chair Jerome Powell, suggested that a more aggressive (50bps) Fed rate hike was possible at its next monetary policy meeting in May. Domestically, two of the five members of the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a 50bps repo rate increase at its rate setting meeting last week. In other local news, there was some focus on the fourth SA Investment Conference. BER Weekly, 22 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 22 2022 7:26AM On the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing read moreOn the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing war in Eastern Europe with contradictory statements on progress with negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as well as monetary policy decisions by key central banks. BER Weekly, 14 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 14 2022 7:57AM With global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary read moreWith global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary implementation of stage 4 load-shedding last week again highlighted the domestically-driven downside risks to SA real GDP growth we have often flagged. BER Weekly, 7 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 7 2022 11:51AM Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. read moreRussia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. BER Weekly, 28 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 28 2022 10:14AM Usually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. read moreUsually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. BER Weekly, 21 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 21 2022 7:30AM Last week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid read moreLast week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid allegations that Moscow was trying to create a pretext to invade Ukraine. BER Weekly, 14 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 14 2022 7:52AM Another above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more read moreAnother above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more aggressively. On the domestic front, Stats SA published two key December data releases last week. BER Weekly, 7 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 7 2022 8:07AM As expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. read moreAs expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. Domestically, early data for 2022 shows that the economy started the year on a solid footing. However, the return of load-shedding (and the risk of more to come) dampened the optimism. BER Weekly, 31 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 31 2022 8:38AM Global and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, read moreGlobal and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, country-wide COVID-19 cases stabilised last week with the 7-day average of new cases remaining around 3 000. More encouragingly, the Western Cape government announced that the province had officially exited the fourth wave of infections. BER Weekly, 24 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 24 2022 7:59AM Both in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March read moreBoth in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March start to the policy interest rate normalisation process. For the SARB the expectation is different. With consumer inflation hitting a multi-year high in December and a likely upward revision to the SARB’s inflation forecast, the consensus is for another 25bps hike. On the plus side, data on retail sales trade and mining production for November released last week exceeded expectations, supporting the rebound in SA 2021Q4 GDP. BER Weekly, 17 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 17 2022 7:57AM The domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US read moreThe domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US inflation continued to accelerate in December while economic growth in China, although better than expected, eased in 2021Q4. Domestically, manufacturing production recovered only partially in November following the steel strike and load-shedding-induced decline in October. BER Weekly, 10 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 10 2022 8:18AM It has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of read moreIt has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into State Capture. Besides COVID-19 developments, US monetary policy normalisation, which is set to be a key theme of 2022, was a major driver of financial markets in the first trading week of the year.
(Archive) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 16 May 2022 Last updated: May 16 2022 7:27AM Data out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. read moreData out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. Looking into the current quarter, besides the weak impulse from the rest of the world, the incoming SA-specific news remains downbeat for GDP momentum. BER Weekly, 9 May 2022 Last updated: May 9 2022 7:53AM The international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus read moreThe international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus was on the PMI releases for April, which deteriorated on the back of the devastating flooding in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) as well as stage four load-shedding during the month. BER Weekly, 29 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 29 2022 12:53PM In this edition, we focus on the impending COVID-19 fifth wave in SA, as well as review the first estimates of 2022Q1 GDP in the US and the Eurozone. BER Weekly, 25 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 25 2022 7:23AM The near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that read moreThe near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that pressure is building on Q2 GDP. BER Weekly, 11 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 11 2022 7:26AM Besides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could read moreBesides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could significantly ramp up the pace of monetary policy tightening in the rest of the year. BER Weekly, 4 April 2022 Last updated: Apr 4 2022 7:14AM The week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The read moreThe week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The local data was mixed, with the 2021Q4 labour market figures coming out relatively grim, but the economic releases for 2022 and tax revenue data for 2021/22 were fairly upbeat. On the global front, US and especially Eurozone inflation figures once again came out higher than expected, while the US jobs data was slightly weaker than anticipated BER Weekly, 28 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 28 2022 7:42AM Besides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) read moreBesides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including chair Jerome Powell, suggested that a more aggressive (50bps) Fed rate hike was possible at its next monetary policy meeting in May. Domestically, two of the five members of the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a 50bps repo rate increase at its rate setting meeting last week. In other local news, there was some focus on the fourth SA Investment Conference. BER Weekly, 22 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 22 2022 7:26AM On the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing read moreOn the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing war in Eastern Europe with contradictory statements on progress with negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as well as monetary policy decisions by key central banks. BER Weekly, 14 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 14 2022 7:57AM With global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary read moreWith global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary implementation of stage 4 load-shedding last week again highlighted the domestically-driven downside risks to SA real GDP growth we have often flagged. BER Weekly, 7 March 2022 Last updated: Mar 7 2022 11:51AM Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. read moreRussia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. BER Weekly, 28 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 28 2022 10:14AM Usually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. read moreUsually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. BER Weekly, 21 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 21 2022 7:30AM Last week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid read moreLast week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid allegations that Moscow was trying to create a pretext to invade Ukraine. BER Weekly, 14 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 14 2022 7:52AM Another above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more read moreAnother above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more aggressively. On the domestic front, Stats SA published two key December data releases last week. BER Weekly, 7 February 2022 Last updated: Feb 7 2022 8:07AM As expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. read moreAs expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. Domestically, early data for 2022 shows that the economy started the year on a solid footing. However, the return of load-shedding (and the risk of more to come) dampened the optimism. BER Weekly, 31 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 31 2022 8:38AM Global and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, read moreGlobal and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, country-wide COVID-19 cases stabilised last week with the 7-day average of new cases remaining around 3 000. More encouragingly, the Western Cape government announced that the province had officially exited the fourth wave of infections. BER Weekly, 24 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 24 2022 7:59AM Both in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March read moreBoth in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March start to the policy interest rate normalisation process. For the SARB the expectation is different. With consumer inflation hitting a multi-year high in December and a likely upward revision to the SARB’s inflation forecast, the consensus is for another 25bps hike. On the plus side, data on retail sales trade and mining production for November released last week exceeded expectations, supporting the rebound in SA 2021Q4 GDP. BER Weekly, 17 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 17 2022 7:57AM The domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US read moreThe domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US inflation continued to accelerate in December while economic growth in China, although better than expected, eased in 2021Q4. Domestically, manufacturing production recovered only partially in November following the steel strike and load-shedding-induced decline in October. BER Weekly, 10 January 2022 Last updated: Jan 10 2022 8:18AM It has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of read moreIt has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into State Capture. Besides COVID-19 developments, US monetary policy normalisation, which is set to be a key theme of 2022, was a major driver of financial markets in the first trading week of the year.