Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report (Archive) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 19 September 2022 Date Uploaded: Sep 19 2022 7:30AM Against a worsening global economic backdrop, the SA economy was again hit by intense power rationing last week. This threatens the GDP recovery from the 0.7% q-o-q contraction experienced in 2022Q2. Besides a continued focus on load-shedding, this week is read moreAgainst a worsening global economic backdrop, the SA economy was again hit by intense power rationing last week. This threatens the GDP recovery from the 0.7% q-o-q contraction experienced in 2022Q2. Besides a continued focus on load-shedding, this week is jam-packed with central bank action, including widely expected 75bps policy rate hikes from the US Fed and the SARB. BER Weekly, 12 September 2022 Date Uploaded: Sep 12 2022 7:30AM Last week was one for the history books. On the global front, most notable was the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, the UK’s longest-serving monarch, on Thursday. This was only days after Liz Truss took over as UK prime minster. There were also key developments read moreLast week was one for the history books. On the global front, most notable was the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, the UK’s longest-serving monarch, on Thursday. This was only days after Liz Truss took over as UK prime minster. There were also key developments on the economic policy and data front, while in financial markets, the US dollar scaled multi-decade peaks against other major currencies. The local data calendar was busy with the release of Q2 GDP and current account data as well as Q3 confidence metrics. We also saw the return of load-shedding, with level 4 required over the weekend to replenish emergency reserves. Eskom expects the rolling blackouts to stay with us for the remainder of the week, albeit at lower stages. BER Weekly, 5 September 2022 Date Uploaded: Sep 5 2022 8:00AM Concerns about the outlook for global GDP growth intensified last week, especially outside of the US. The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from key SA export markets painted a worrying picture of weakening offshore demand. The headline PMIs in the UK, read moreConcerns about the outlook for global GDP growth intensified last week, especially outside of the US. The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from key SA export markets painted a worrying picture of weakening offshore demand. The headline PMIs in the UK, China and the Eurozone measured below the neutral 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction in August. These indicators have been tracking lower for some time. Europe and the UK are under pressure from a worsening energy crunch. BER Weekly, 29 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 29 2022 11:30AM Last week was (again) all about high inflation and the (global) monetary policy implications thereof. On the local front, consumer price inflation rose to another 13-year high while producer inflation also ticked up further. On the global front, the week read moreLast week was (again) all about high inflation and the (global) monetary policy implications thereof. On the local front, consumer price inflation rose to another 13-year high while producer inflation also ticked up further. On the global front, the week started with the dire projection from Citi that annual UK inflation could breach 18% early next year, while European gas prices continued to surge higher during the week. However, the most anticipated economic event was US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. BER Weekly, 22 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 22 2022 8:00AM After some respite, load-shedding returned last week, albeit limited to the late afternoon/evening and to stage 2. Rather than dwelling on this, the domestic section reviews another set of data releases for June, which for the most part once again supported read moreAfter some respite, load-shedding returned last week, albeit limited to the late afternoon/evening and to stage 2. Rather than dwelling on this, the domestic section reviews another set of data releases for June, which for the most part once again supported the view that real GDP contracted in Q2. In financial markets, global investors had to contend with a plethora of US Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers who each put their own nuance on the outlook for the US policy interest rate. Intertwined with this was a mixed set of data from the world’s largest economy. BER Weekly, 15 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 15 2022 7:00AM Last week’s poor manufacturing and mining data releases for June confirm our expectation that the SA economy contracted in the second quarter compared to the first. Despite the poor local data, the rand exchange rate booked significant gains against most read moreLast week’s poor manufacturing and mining data releases for June confirm our expectation that the SA economy contracted in the second quarter compared to the first. Despite the poor local data, the rand exchange rate booked significant gains against most major currencies as markets pondered the size of the next US Federal Reserve rate hike. BER Weekly, 8 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 8 2022 8:15AM Last week we received the first batch of SA activity data for July. As expected, intense load-shedding took its toll on the manufacturing sector. However, some of the other data was more positive. The international section provides an overview of the US read moreLast week we received the first batch of SA activity data for July. As expected, intense load-shedding took its toll on the manufacturing sector. However, some of the other data was more positive. The international section provides an overview of the US nonfarm payrolls for July which saw employment surge back above pre-pandemic levels and the unemployment rate tick down to 3.5%. BER Weekly, 1 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 1 2022 7:00AM Last week was action-packed with a major energy reform announcement in SA and diverging takeaways after the latest US Fed policy interest rate decision. This week’s highlights include the first batch of local activity data for July, interest rate meetings in read moreLast week was action-packed with a major energy reform announcement in SA and diverging takeaways after the latest US Fed policy interest rate decision. This week’s highlights include the first batch of local activity data for July, interest rate meetings in Australia and the UK, as well as the all-important US job numbers (for July) on Friday. BER Weekly, 25 July 2021 Date Uploaded: Jul 25 2022 8:15AM Larger than expected policy interest rate moves by the ECB and the SARB, as well as data releases showing a further softening in US growth momentum, drove financial markets last week. Looking to this week, the interest rate announcement by the US Fed on read moreLarger than expected policy interest rate moves by the ECB and the SARB, as well as data releases showing a further softening in US growth momentum, drove financial markets last week. Looking to this week, the interest rate announcement by the US Fed on Wednesday is in focus. Locally, a spate of data will be released towards the end of the week, including the PPI for June. BER Weekly, 18 July 2022 Date Uploaded: Jul 18 2022 8:45AM Not for the first time this year, global financial markets were unsettled last week by developed country inflation numbers that exceeded expectations. In the upcoming week, the focus is squarely on the response from central banks to high inflation and the read moreNot for the first time this year, global financial markets were unsettled last week by developed country inflation numbers that exceeded expectations. In the upcoming week, the focus is squarely on the response from central banks to high inflation and the concern about slowing GDP growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the SARB will both deliver their latest monetary policy decisions on Thursday. BER Weekly, 11 July 2022 Date Uploaded: Jul 11 2022 7:45AM It would have been a busy week last week even without unexpected and unsettling global political developments. The most important international economic data release was the US jobs report on Friday. In Europe, gas prices rose anew amid increasing concern read moreIt would have been a busy week last week even without unexpected and unsettling global political developments. The most important international economic data release was the US jobs report on Friday. In Europe, gas prices rose anew amid increasing concern about supplies from Russia, which were compounded by a strike in the Norwegian gas sector. Locally, a key development was the resolution of the wildcat strike at Eskom. BER Weekly, 4 July 2022 Date Uploaded: Jul 4 2022 8:00AM All local news was overshadowed by SA experiencing its worst load-shedding on record last week. The consecutive days of stage 6 load-shedding (with stage 4 required on the weekend and at night, and a return to stage 6 later today) was way beyond the magnitude read moreAll local news was overshadowed by SA experiencing its worst load-shedding on record last week. The consecutive days of stage 6 load-shedding (with stage 4 required on the weekend and at night, and a return to stage 6 later today) was way beyond the magnitude of rolling blackouts implemented in the past. I BER Weekly, 27 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 27 2022 7:45AM There was again plenty to digest on the domestic and global economic front last week. In general, the news was downbeat as SA headline consumer inflation (CPI) increased by notably more than expected in May. In other negative news, Eskom implemented stage 2 read moreThere was again plenty to digest on the domestic and global economic front last week. In general, the news was downbeat as SA headline consumer inflation (CPI) increased by notably more than expected in May. In other negative news, Eskom implemented stage 2 load-shedding from Wednesday. This was ramped up to stage 4 on Friday, as well as during the weekend and is expected to last at least until Wednesday. BER Weekly, 20 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 20 2022 7:30AM The key global economic event over the past week was the bigger-than-initially-signalled interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve mid-week. In the lead-up to the Fed meeting, global equity and bond markets were in turmoil as traders started pricing in the read moreThe key global economic event over the past week was the bigger-than-initially-signalled interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve mid-week. In the lead-up to the Fed meeting, global equity and bond markets were in turmoil as traders started pricing in the possibility of a 75bps instead of a 50bps hike. SA financial markets were not spared from these sharp swings, with the rand exchange rate depreciating past R16/$ mid-week. In other news, the latest SA economic data releases were a mixed bag. BER Weekly, 13 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 13 2022 8:00AM It was another mixed week on the domestic economic front, starting with the release of much better-than-expected real GDP growth numbers for 2022Q1. However, the first batch of Stats SA’s high-frequency figures for the second quarter, as well as the decline read moreIt was another mixed week on the domestic economic front, starting with the release of much better-than-expected real GDP growth numbers for 2022Q1. However, the first batch of Stats SA’s high-frequency figures for the second quarter, as well as the decline in business confidence during Q2, emphasised that the various shocks that hit the economy derailed the solid momentum seen in the early part of the year. BER Weekly, 6 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 6 2022 8:00AM Last week Tuesday saw the keenly awaited announcement by the Minister of Finance and Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy that the general fuel levy reduction of R1.50/litre would be continued for another month. While the extension of the fuel levy relief read moreLast week Tuesday saw the keenly awaited announcement by the Minister of Finance and Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy that the general fuel levy reduction of R1.50/litre would be continued for another month. While the extension of the fuel levy relief curtails near-term domestic inflationary pressure somewhat, consumer price (CPI) inflation is still set to come out higher this year than we previously estimated. The domestic section unpacks the May PMI data for SA as well as the 2022Q1 Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). The international section looks as the US jobs data as well as Eurozone inflation figures. BER Weekly, 30 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 30 2022 7:15AM A key theme on the domestic economic front last week was rising concerns about upside risks to the near-term outlook for consumer inflation. This was fuelled by a second consecutive month where producer inflation (PPI) rose significantly more than expected. read moreA key theme on the domestic economic front last week was rising concerns about upside risks to the near-term outlook for consumer inflation. This was fuelled by a second consecutive month where producer inflation (PPI) rose significantly more than expected. BER Weekly, 23 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 23 2022 7:00AM Friday night saw some unexpected good news on the local front with ratings agency S&P Global upgrading the outlook on SA’s sovereign rating from stable to positive. The main scheduled event during the week was the policy rate announcement by the SA Reserve read moreFriday night saw some unexpected good news on the local front with ratings agency S&P Global upgrading the outlook on SA’s sovereign rating from stable to positive. The main scheduled event during the week was the policy rate announcement by the SA Reserve Bank (SARB). As expected, the SARB decided to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points. Meanwhile, as flagged last week, pressure continues to build on Q2 GDP. BER Weekly, 16 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 16 2022 7:45AM Data out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. read moreData out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. Looking into the current quarter, besides the weak impulse from the rest of the world, the incoming SA-specific news remains downbeat for GDP momentum. BER Weekly, 9 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 9 2022 8:15AM The international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus read moreThe international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus was on the PMI releases for April, which deteriorated on the back of the devastating flooding in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) as well as stage four load-shedding during the month. BER Weekly, 29 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 29 2022 1:15PM In this edition, we focus on the impending COVID-19 fifth wave in SA, as well as review the first estimates of 2022Q1 GDP in the US and the Eurozone. BER Weekly, 25 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 25 2022 7:45AM The near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that read moreThe near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that pressure is building on Q2 GDP. BER Weekly, 11 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 11 2022 7:45AM Besides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could read moreBesides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could significantly ramp up the pace of monetary policy tightening in the rest of the year. BER Weekly, 4 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 4 2022 7:30AM The week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The read moreThe week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The local data was mixed, with the 2021Q4 labour market figures coming out relatively grim, but the economic releases for 2022 and tax revenue data for 2021/22 were fairly upbeat. On the global front, US and especially Eurozone inflation figures once again came out higher than expected, while the US jobs data was slightly weaker than anticipated BER Weekly, 28 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 28 2022 8:00AM Besides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) read moreBesides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including chair Jerome Powell, suggested that a more aggressive (50bps) Fed rate hike was possible at its next monetary policy meeting in May. Domestically, two of the five members of the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a 50bps repo rate increase at its rate setting meeting last week. In other local news, there was some focus on the fourth SA Investment Conference. BER Weekly, 22 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 22 2022 7:45AM On the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing read moreOn the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing war in Eastern Europe with contradictory statements on progress with negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as well as monetary policy decisions by key central banks. BER Weekly, 14 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 14 2022 8:15AM With global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary read moreWith global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary implementation of stage 4 load-shedding last week again highlighted the domestically-driven downside risks to SA real GDP growth we have often flagged. BER Weekly, 7 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2022 12:15PM Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. read moreRussia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. BER Weekly, 28 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 28 2022 10:30AM Usually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. read moreUsually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. BER Weekly, 21 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 21 2022 7:45AM Last week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid read moreLast week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid allegations that Moscow was trying to create a pretext to invade Ukraine. BER Weekly, 14 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 14 2022 8:15AM Another above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more read moreAnother above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more aggressively. On the domestic front, Stats SA published two key December data releases last week. BER Weekly, 7 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 7 2022 8:30AM As expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. read moreAs expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. Domestically, early data for 2022 shows that the economy started the year on a solid footing. However, the return of load-shedding (and the risk of more to come) dampened the optimism. BER Weekly, 31 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 31 2022 9:00AM Global and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, read moreGlobal and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, country-wide COVID-19 cases stabilised last week with the 7-day average of new cases remaining around 3 000. More encouragingly, the Western Cape government announced that the province had officially exited the fourth wave of infections. BER Weekly, 24 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 24 2022 8:15AM Both in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March read moreBoth in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March start to the policy interest rate normalisation process. For the SARB the expectation is different. With consumer inflation hitting a multi-year high in December and a likely upward revision to the SARB’s inflation forecast, the consensus is for another 25bps hike. On the plus side, data on retail sales trade and mining production for November released last week exceeded expectations, supporting the rebound in SA 2021Q4 GDP. BER Weekly, 17 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 17 2022 8:15AM The domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US read moreThe domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US inflation continued to accelerate in December while economic growth in China, although better than expected, eased in 2021Q4. Domestically, manufacturing production recovered only partially in November following the steel strike and load-shedding-induced decline in October. BER Weekly, 10 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 10 2022 8:45AM It has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of read moreIt has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into State Capture. Besides COVID-19 developments, US monetary policy normalisation, which is set to be a key theme of 2022, was a major driver of financial markets in the first trading week of the year.
(Archive) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 19 September 2022 Date Uploaded: Sep 19 2022 7:30AM Against a worsening global economic backdrop, the SA economy was again hit by intense power rationing last week. This threatens the GDP recovery from the 0.7% q-o-q contraction experienced in 2022Q2. Besides a continued focus on load-shedding, this week is read moreAgainst a worsening global economic backdrop, the SA economy was again hit by intense power rationing last week. This threatens the GDP recovery from the 0.7% q-o-q contraction experienced in 2022Q2. Besides a continued focus on load-shedding, this week is jam-packed with central bank action, including widely expected 75bps policy rate hikes from the US Fed and the SARB. BER Weekly, 12 September 2022 Date Uploaded: Sep 12 2022 7:30AM Last week was one for the history books. On the global front, most notable was the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, the UK’s longest-serving monarch, on Thursday. This was only days after Liz Truss took over as UK prime minster. There were also key developments read moreLast week was one for the history books. On the global front, most notable was the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, the UK’s longest-serving monarch, on Thursday. This was only days after Liz Truss took over as UK prime minster. There were also key developments on the economic policy and data front, while in financial markets, the US dollar scaled multi-decade peaks against other major currencies. The local data calendar was busy with the release of Q2 GDP and current account data as well as Q3 confidence metrics. We also saw the return of load-shedding, with level 4 required over the weekend to replenish emergency reserves. Eskom expects the rolling blackouts to stay with us for the remainder of the week, albeit at lower stages. BER Weekly, 5 September 2022 Date Uploaded: Sep 5 2022 8:00AM Concerns about the outlook for global GDP growth intensified last week, especially outside of the US. The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from key SA export markets painted a worrying picture of weakening offshore demand. The headline PMIs in the UK, read moreConcerns about the outlook for global GDP growth intensified last week, especially outside of the US. The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from key SA export markets painted a worrying picture of weakening offshore demand. The headline PMIs in the UK, China and the Eurozone measured below the neutral 50 mark that divides expansion from contraction in August. These indicators have been tracking lower for some time. Europe and the UK are under pressure from a worsening energy crunch. BER Weekly, 29 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 29 2022 11:30AM Last week was (again) all about high inflation and the (global) monetary policy implications thereof. On the local front, consumer price inflation rose to another 13-year high while producer inflation also ticked up further. On the global front, the week read moreLast week was (again) all about high inflation and the (global) monetary policy implications thereof. On the local front, consumer price inflation rose to another 13-year high while producer inflation also ticked up further. On the global front, the week started with the dire projection from Citi that annual UK inflation could breach 18% early next year, while European gas prices continued to surge higher during the week. However, the most anticipated economic event was US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. BER Weekly, 22 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 22 2022 8:00AM After some respite, load-shedding returned last week, albeit limited to the late afternoon/evening and to stage 2. Rather than dwelling on this, the domestic section reviews another set of data releases for June, which for the most part once again supported read moreAfter some respite, load-shedding returned last week, albeit limited to the late afternoon/evening and to stage 2. Rather than dwelling on this, the domestic section reviews another set of data releases for June, which for the most part once again supported the view that real GDP contracted in Q2. In financial markets, global investors had to contend with a plethora of US Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers who each put their own nuance on the outlook for the US policy interest rate. Intertwined with this was a mixed set of data from the world’s largest economy. BER Weekly, 15 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 15 2022 7:00AM Last week’s poor manufacturing and mining data releases for June confirm our expectation that the SA economy contracted in the second quarter compared to the first. Despite the poor local data, the rand exchange rate booked significant gains against most read moreLast week’s poor manufacturing and mining data releases for June confirm our expectation that the SA economy contracted in the second quarter compared to the first. Despite the poor local data, the rand exchange rate booked significant gains against most major currencies as markets pondered the size of the next US Federal Reserve rate hike. BER Weekly, 8 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 8 2022 8:15AM Last week we received the first batch of SA activity data for July. As expected, intense load-shedding took its toll on the manufacturing sector. However, some of the other data was more positive. The international section provides an overview of the US read moreLast week we received the first batch of SA activity data for July. As expected, intense load-shedding took its toll on the manufacturing sector. However, some of the other data was more positive. The international section provides an overview of the US nonfarm payrolls for July which saw employment surge back above pre-pandemic levels and the unemployment rate tick down to 3.5%. BER Weekly, 1 August 2022 Date Uploaded: Aug 1 2022 7:00AM Last week was action-packed with a major energy reform announcement in SA and diverging takeaways after the latest US Fed policy interest rate decision. This week’s highlights include the first batch of local activity data for July, interest rate meetings in read moreLast week was action-packed with a major energy reform announcement in SA and diverging takeaways after the latest US Fed policy interest rate decision. This week’s highlights include the first batch of local activity data for July, interest rate meetings in Australia and the UK, as well as the all-important US job numbers (for July) on Friday. BER Weekly, 25 July 2021 Date Uploaded: Jul 25 2022 8:15AM Larger than expected policy interest rate moves by the ECB and the SARB, as well as data releases showing a further softening in US growth momentum, drove financial markets last week. Looking to this week, the interest rate announcement by the US Fed on read moreLarger than expected policy interest rate moves by the ECB and the SARB, as well as data releases showing a further softening in US growth momentum, drove financial markets last week. Looking to this week, the interest rate announcement by the US Fed on Wednesday is in focus. Locally, a spate of data will be released towards the end of the week, including the PPI for June. BER Weekly, 18 July 2022 Date Uploaded: Jul 18 2022 8:45AM Not for the first time this year, global financial markets were unsettled last week by developed country inflation numbers that exceeded expectations. In the upcoming week, the focus is squarely on the response from central banks to high inflation and the read moreNot for the first time this year, global financial markets were unsettled last week by developed country inflation numbers that exceeded expectations. In the upcoming week, the focus is squarely on the response from central banks to high inflation and the concern about slowing GDP growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the SARB will both deliver their latest monetary policy decisions on Thursday. BER Weekly, 11 July 2022 Date Uploaded: Jul 11 2022 7:45AM It would have been a busy week last week even without unexpected and unsettling global political developments. The most important international economic data release was the US jobs report on Friday. In Europe, gas prices rose anew amid increasing concern read moreIt would have been a busy week last week even without unexpected and unsettling global political developments. The most important international economic data release was the US jobs report on Friday. In Europe, gas prices rose anew amid increasing concern about supplies from Russia, which were compounded by a strike in the Norwegian gas sector. Locally, a key development was the resolution of the wildcat strike at Eskom. BER Weekly, 4 July 2022 Date Uploaded: Jul 4 2022 8:00AM All local news was overshadowed by SA experiencing its worst load-shedding on record last week. The consecutive days of stage 6 load-shedding (with stage 4 required on the weekend and at night, and a return to stage 6 later today) was way beyond the magnitude read moreAll local news was overshadowed by SA experiencing its worst load-shedding on record last week. The consecutive days of stage 6 load-shedding (with stage 4 required on the weekend and at night, and a return to stage 6 later today) was way beyond the magnitude of rolling blackouts implemented in the past. I BER Weekly, 27 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 27 2022 7:45AM There was again plenty to digest on the domestic and global economic front last week. In general, the news was downbeat as SA headline consumer inflation (CPI) increased by notably more than expected in May. In other negative news, Eskom implemented stage 2 read moreThere was again plenty to digest on the domestic and global economic front last week. In general, the news was downbeat as SA headline consumer inflation (CPI) increased by notably more than expected in May. In other negative news, Eskom implemented stage 2 load-shedding from Wednesday. This was ramped up to stage 4 on Friday, as well as during the weekend and is expected to last at least until Wednesday. BER Weekly, 20 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 20 2022 7:30AM The key global economic event over the past week was the bigger-than-initially-signalled interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve mid-week. In the lead-up to the Fed meeting, global equity and bond markets were in turmoil as traders started pricing in the read moreThe key global economic event over the past week was the bigger-than-initially-signalled interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve mid-week. In the lead-up to the Fed meeting, global equity and bond markets were in turmoil as traders started pricing in the possibility of a 75bps instead of a 50bps hike. SA financial markets were not spared from these sharp swings, with the rand exchange rate depreciating past R16/$ mid-week. In other news, the latest SA economic data releases were a mixed bag. BER Weekly, 13 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 13 2022 8:00AM It was another mixed week on the domestic economic front, starting with the release of much better-than-expected real GDP growth numbers for 2022Q1. However, the first batch of Stats SA’s high-frequency figures for the second quarter, as well as the decline read moreIt was another mixed week on the domestic economic front, starting with the release of much better-than-expected real GDP growth numbers for 2022Q1. However, the first batch of Stats SA’s high-frequency figures for the second quarter, as well as the decline in business confidence during Q2, emphasised that the various shocks that hit the economy derailed the solid momentum seen in the early part of the year. BER Weekly, 6 June 2022 Date Uploaded: Jun 6 2022 8:00AM Last week Tuesday saw the keenly awaited announcement by the Minister of Finance and Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy that the general fuel levy reduction of R1.50/litre would be continued for another month. While the extension of the fuel levy relief read moreLast week Tuesday saw the keenly awaited announcement by the Minister of Finance and Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy that the general fuel levy reduction of R1.50/litre would be continued for another month. While the extension of the fuel levy relief curtails near-term domestic inflationary pressure somewhat, consumer price (CPI) inflation is still set to come out higher this year than we previously estimated. The domestic section unpacks the May PMI data for SA as well as the 2022Q1 Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). The international section looks as the US jobs data as well as Eurozone inflation figures. BER Weekly, 30 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 30 2022 7:15AM A key theme on the domestic economic front last week was rising concerns about upside risks to the near-term outlook for consumer inflation. This was fuelled by a second consecutive month where producer inflation (PPI) rose significantly more than expected. read moreA key theme on the domestic economic front last week was rising concerns about upside risks to the near-term outlook for consumer inflation. This was fuelled by a second consecutive month where producer inflation (PPI) rose significantly more than expected. BER Weekly, 23 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 23 2022 7:00AM Friday night saw some unexpected good news on the local front with ratings agency S&P Global upgrading the outlook on SA’s sovereign rating from stable to positive. The main scheduled event during the week was the policy rate announcement by the SA Reserve read moreFriday night saw some unexpected good news on the local front with ratings agency S&P Global upgrading the outlook on SA’s sovereign rating from stable to positive. The main scheduled event during the week was the policy rate announcement by the SA Reserve Bank (SARB). As expected, the SARB decided to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points. Meanwhile, as flagged last week, pressure continues to build on Q2 GDP. BER Weekly, 16 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 16 2022 7:45AM Data out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. read moreData out of China this morning highlighted the detrimental impact that prolonged draconian lockdowns are having on economic activity. In terms of local economic developments, the domestic section provides some detail on industrial activity data for March. Looking into the current quarter, besides the weak impulse from the rest of the world, the incoming SA-specific news remains downbeat for GDP momentum. BER Weekly, 9 May 2022 Date Uploaded: May 9 2022 8:15AM The international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus read moreThe international focus last week was firmly on monetary policy announcements by several central banks. All eyes were on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision mid-week, with key US labour market data also out on Friday. On the local front, the focus was on the PMI releases for April, which deteriorated on the back of the devastating flooding in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) as well as stage four load-shedding during the month. BER Weekly, 29 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 29 2022 1:15PM In this edition, we focus on the impending COVID-19 fifth wave in SA, as well as review the first estimates of 2022Q1 GDP in the US and the Eurozone. BER Weekly, 25 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 25 2022 7:45AM The near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that read moreThe near-term picture of the SA economy has darkened since the release of the previous Weekly Review. Not only did the February activity data disappoint expectations, but the devastating flooding in parts of the country and stage-four load-shedding means that pressure is building on Q2 GDP. BER Weekly, 11 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 11 2022 7:45AM Besides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could read moreBesides the grim realities of the war in Ukraine, including evidence of atrocities committed by Russian troops in towns on the outskirts of the capital Kyiv, the global economic focus remained on the likelihood that especially the US central bank could significantly ramp up the pace of monetary policy tightening in the rest of the year. BER Weekly, 4 April 2022 Date Uploaded: Apr 4 2022 7:30AM The week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The read moreThe week was not only busy on the local and global data front, but also saw a SA credit ratings announcement from Moody’s and worldwide, including from the SA government, measures to soften the fuel price impact from much higher international oil prices. The local data was mixed, with the 2021Q4 labour market figures coming out relatively grim, but the economic releases for 2022 and tax revenue data for 2021/22 were fairly upbeat. On the global front, US and especially Eurozone inflation figures once again came out higher than expected, while the US jobs data was slightly weaker than anticipated BER Weekly, 28 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 28 2022 8:00AM Besides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) read moreBesides the war in Ukraine, global and domestic financial markets continued to be influenced by central bank rhetoric on the likely pace of interest rate normalisation amid decades-high inflation in parts of the world. In the US, some Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including chair Jerome Powell, suggested that a more aggressive (50bps) Fed rate hike was possible at its next monetary policy meeting in May. Domestically, two of the five members of the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a 50bps repo rate increase at its rate setting meeting last week. In other local news, there was some focus on the fourth SA Investment Conference. BER Weekly, 22 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 22 2022 7:45AM On the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing read moreOn the local front, internal trade data confirmed that the SA economy started 2022 on a solid footing. Globally, markets had a lot to digest last week. This included lockdowns in China that could further exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks, the ongoing war in Eastern Europe with contradictory statements on progress with negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as well as monetary policy decisions by key central banks. BER Weekly, 14 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 14 2022 8:15AM With global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary read moreWith global headlines still dominated by the war in Ukraine, there were some decent data releases on the pre-war state of the local economy in 2022Q1. However, besides the likely adverse spillover effects from the war on the real economy, the temporary implementation of stage 4 load-shedding last week again highlighted the domestically-driven downside risks to SA real GDP growth we have often flagged. BER Weekly, 7 March 2022 Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2022 12:15PM Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. read moreRussia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine continued to dominate global news headlines last week and this morning, resulting in extreme commodity price swings that will have a profound impact on the global and SA economy over the short term. BER Weekly, 28 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 28 2022 10:30AM Usually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. read moreUsually, the presentation of the SA national budget would have been the main event of the week. However, this was completely overshadowed by developments in Ukraine after Russia, as has been feared for months, invaded the country on 24 February. BER Weekly, 21 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 21 2022 7:45AM Last week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid read moreLast week, global financial markets remained on tenterhooks about ever increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine. After the threat of military conflict seemed to decline early in the week, the drumbeats of war increased towards the end of the week amid allegations that Moscow was trying to create a pretext to invade Ukraine. BER Weekly, 14 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 14 2022 8:15AM Another above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more read moreAnother above consensus US inflation print dominated financial market headlines last week. Annual consumer inflation came in at a 40-year high in January, driving speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to hike its policy interest rate more aggressively. On the domestic front, Stats SA published two key December data releases last week. BER Weekly, 7 February 2022 Date Uploaded: Feb 7 2022 8:30AM As expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. read moreAs expected, global financial market moves last week were dominated by key central bank meetings in the UK and the EZ where both the BoE and the ECB struck a more hawkish than expected tone. In the US, the latest employment data surprised on the upside. Domestically, early data for 2022 shows that the economy started the year on a solid footing. However, the return of load-shedding (and the risk of more to come) dampened the optimism. BER Weekly, 31 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 31 2022 9:00AM Global and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, read moreGlobal and domestic financial markets were dominated by comments from the US Fed on the timing and pace of US monetary policy normalisation last week. Meanwhile, the SARB delivered on a widely expected 25bps policy rate hike. On the local COVID-19 front, country-wide COVID-19 cases stabilised last week with the 7-day average of new cases remaining around 3 000. More encouragingly, the Western Cape government announced that the province had officially exited the fourth wave of infections. BER Weekly, 24 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 24 2022 8:15AM Both in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March read moreBoth in SA and in the US, the major economic focus this week will be on central bank monetary policy meetings. While the US Federal Reserve is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged, of keen interest will be any (further) indication of a likely March start to the policy interest rate normalisation process. For the SARB the expectation is different. With consumer inflation hitting a multi-year high in December and a likely upward revision to the SARB’s inflation forecast, the consensus is for another 25bps hike. On the plus side, data on retail sales trade and mining production for November released last week exceeded expectations, supporting the rebound in SA 2021Q4 GDP. BER Weekly, 17 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 17 2022 8:15AM The domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US read moreThe domestic COVID-19 situation continues to improve, with the Department of Health confirming that the fourth wave of infections has peaked in all provinces. Gauteng, the original epicentre, has officially exited the fourth wave. From a data perspective, US inflation continued to accelerate in December while economic growth in China, although better than expected, eased in 2021Q4. Domestically, manufacturing production recovered only partially in November following the steel strike and load-shedding-induced decline in October. BER Weekly, 10 January 2022 Date Uploaded: Jan 10 2022 8:45AM It has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of read moreIt has been an eventful, and in many ways unsettling, start to the year. Domestically, headlines were dominated by the devastating fire that engulfed parts of Parliament, as well as the release of the first part of the report from the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into State Capture. Besides COVID-19 developments, US monetary policy normalisation, which is set to be a key theme of 2022, was a major driver of financial markets in the first trading week of the year.