Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report (Archive) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 5 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 5 2023 7:30AM The SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. read moreThe SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. BER Weekly, 29 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 29 2023 7:30AM On the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate read moreOn the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate remained under pressure and weakened to a fresh record low against the US dollar towards the end of the week. BER Weekly, 22 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 22 2023 7:30AM After being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the read moreAfter being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the pressure on the local currency. BER Weekly, 15 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 15 2023 7:30AM It was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already read moreIt was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already under tremendous pressure ahead of this announcement late on Thursday. BER Weekly, 8 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 8 2023 7:45AM In a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of central bank decisions as both the US central bank (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) met expectations with 25bps policy interest rate hikes. BER Weekly, 24 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 24 2023 7:30AM The most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a read moreThe most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a quarterly expansion in the sector in Q1. The real GDP growth outlook for Q2, however, is rapidly deteriorating as load-shedding continued at high levels through the week. Amidst already intense load-shedding, the first round of wage talks for 2023/24 took place at Eskom. BER Weekly, 17 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 17 2023 7:30AM Following a reprieve in the intensity of load-shedding during prior weeks, power cuts were back in full force last week, denting the prospects for economic activity at the start of the second quarter. BER Weekly, 3 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 3 2023 7:30AM The biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a read moreThe biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bps. The international focus was on consumer price inflation data. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation was released on Friday. Following an unexpected uptick the month before, price pressures cooled in February. For the Eurozone, a preliminary estimate of its consumer price index (CPI) for March reflected a slowdown in headline inflation. BER Weekly, 27 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 27 2023 7:15AM In a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI read moreIn a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI inflation print and another increase in government’s salary hike offer to public sector workers. Besides the domestic developments, local (and global) financial markets continued to be heavily impacted by the news flow on the banking troubles in parts of the world. The much-anticipated US Federal Reserve policy interest rate decision, as well as an update of the Fed’s rate-setting committee’s interest rate expectations, also influenced market sentiment. BER Weekly, 17 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 17 2023 9:30AM The collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock read moreThe collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock and bond markets continued to experience wild swings after Switzerland’s second-largest bank Credit Suisse, which has been rocked by several scandals in recent years and was already under pressure before the collapse of SVB, suffered further losses amid contagion from the US banking concerns and an adverse auditor report. Developments over the past week also potentially upended major central banks’ monetary policy guidance and sent monetary authorities back to the drawing board. BER Weekly, 13 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 13 2023 7:30AM There was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later read moreThere was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later in the week when 1) Stats SA reported that real GDP contracted three times more than the market expectation in 2022Q4 and 2) amid concerns about the future growth implications of the worsening power situation and other infrastructure bottlenecks (rail and ports in particular), credit ratings agency S&P Global cut the outlook on SA’s BB- sovereign credit rating to stable from positive. BER Weekly, 6 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 7:30AM Last week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by read moreLast week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The local data releases painted a mixed picture of activity and trade dynamics in early 2023. Globally, last week’s data releases can be broadly summarised in two themes. One theme is stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone (EZ) and the US. The other theme stems from the seemingly much quicker-than-anticipated rebound in the Chinese economy after the end of the zero-COVID policy. BER Weekly, 27 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 27 2023 7:45AM It was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental read moreIt was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental body that sets international standards aimed at preventing global money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) activities, added SA to a list of countries under increased monitoring for failing to meet certain standards in combating ML/TF. BER Weekly, 20 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 20 2023 10:15AM The key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the read moreThe key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the upside, markets pushed up their expectations of the terminal policy interest rate. Expectations of a higher terminal rate led to a stronger dollar, which filtered through to commodity markets and affected investor appetite for riskier SA assets. BER Weekly, 13 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 13 2023 7:30AM In a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA read moreIn a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA financial markets about the worsening power crisis. BER Weekly, 6 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 7:30AM Global financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global read moreGlobal financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global stock markets rose through most of the week as traders/investors had a dovish interpretation of the guidance on the interest rate trajectory. On the local front, the first data releases for January came out last week, including the Absa PMI and naamsa new vehicle sales figures. BER Weekly, 30 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 30 2023 7:45AM The ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP read moreThe ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP growth forecast for the next three years. BER Weekly, 23 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 23 2023 7:45AM Last week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did read moreLast week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did better than expected in November and the internal trade sector as a whole may add positively to Q4 GDP growth. There were also two key inflation-related releases last week. BER Weekly 16 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 7:45AM Barely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand read moreBarely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand is set to pick up as economic activity returns following the December break.
(Archive) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 BER Weekly, 5 June 2023 Date Uploaded: Jun 5 2023 7:30AM The SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. read moreThe SA consumer, which has shown resilience in the face of higher inflation and borrowing costs, now seems to be feeling more strain. However, amid the downbeat sentiment about SA, an update on the progress made by Operation Vulindlela provided some optimism. BER Weekly, 29 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 29 2023 7:30AM On the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate read moreOn the local front, all eyes were on the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) last week, while global markets digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes and kept a keen eye on any progress of discussions around lifting the US debt ceiling. The rand exchange rate remained under pressure and weakened to a fresh record low against the US dollar towards the end of the week. BER Weekly, 22 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 22 2023 7:30AM After being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the read moreAfter being pummelled to new lows against the US dollar and euro the previous week, the rand exchange rate remained on the back foot last week. Besides ongoing depressed investor sentiment towards SA amid several own goals, a stronger US dollar also kept the pressure on the local currency. BER Weekly, 15 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 15 2023 7:30AM It was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already read moreIt was a tough week for the SA economy and local financial markets. The rand exchange rate fell to its weakest level ever against the US dollar following accusations by the US that SA supplied weapons to sanctioned Russia. To be sure, the rand was already under tremendous pressure ahead of this announcement late on Thursday. BER Weekly, 8 May 2023 Date Uploaded: May 8 2023 7:45AM In a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of read moreIn a holiday-shortened week, the first set of domestic activity data for 2023Q2 was muted, while the incoming numbers for Q1 continue to support a view that SA may have skirted a technical recession in the first quarter. Internationally, it was a week of central bank decisions as both the US central bank (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) met expectations with 25bps policy interest rate hikes. BER Weekly, 24 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 24 2023 7:30AM The most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a read moreThe most important local data release last week was the consumer inflation (CPI) print for March. On the back of stubbornly high food inflation, headline CPI once again surprised on the upside. On a more positive note, internal trade data pointed to a quarterly expansion in the sector in Q1. The real GDP growth outlook for Q2, however, is rapidly deteriorating as load-shedding continued at high levels through the week. Amidst already intense load-shedding, the first round of wage talks for 2023/24 took place at Eskom. BER Weekly, 17 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 17 2023 7:30AM Following a reprieve in the intensity of load-shedding during prior weeks, power cuts were back in full force last week, denting the prospects for economic activity at the start of the second quarter. BER Weekly, 3 April 2023 Date Uploaded: Apr 3 2023 7:30AM The biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a read moreThe biggest development on the domestic front was the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) interest rate decision on Thursday. Concerned about sustained high inflation, and further upside risks to the inflation outlook, the SARB opted to hike the repo rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bps. The international focus was on consumer price inflation data. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation was released on Friday. Following an unexpected uptick the month before, price pressures cooled in February. For the Eurozone, a preliminary estimate of its consumer price index (CPI) for March reflected a slowdown in headline inflation. BER Weekly, 27 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 27 2023 7:15AM In a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI read moreIn a holiday-shortened week for SA, there was plenty to digest, starting with the EFF’s planned shutdown on Monday, which amid a poor turnout was ‘downgraded’ to a stayaway. Two other noteworthy local developments were a higher-than-expected February CPI inflation print and another increase in government’s salary hike offer to public sector workers. Besides the domestic developments, local (and global) financial markets continued to be heavily impacted by the news flow on the banking troubles in parts of the world. The much-anticipated US Federal Reserve policy interest rate decision, as well as an update of the Fed’s rate-setting committee’s interest rate expectations, also influenced market sentiment. BER Weekly, 17 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 17 2023 9:30AM The collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock read moreThe collapse of the US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failure of another bank with a third one entering liquidation, reverberated through global financial markets this week and brought financial stability concerns to the forefront. Stock and bond markets continued to experience wild swings after Switzerland’s second-largest bank Credit Suisse, which has been rocked by several scandals in recent years and was already under pressure before the collapse of SVB, suffered further losses amid contagion from the US banking concerns and an adverse auditor report. Developments over the past week also potentially upended major central banks’ monetary policy guidance and sent monetary authorities back to the drawing board. BER Weekly, 13 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 13 2023 7:30AM There was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later read moreThere was plenty to digest on both the local and international fronts last week, starting with President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing a long-awaited cabinet reshuffle on Monday. The pervasive and debilitating impact of the power constraint was highlighted later in the week when 1) Stats SA reported that real GDP contracted three times more than the market expectation in 2022Q4 and 2) amid concerns about the future growth implications of the worsening power situation and other infrastructure bottlenecks (rail and ports in particular), credit ratings agency S&P Global cut the outlook on SA’s BB- sovereign credit rating to stable from positive. BER Weekly, 6 March 2023 Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 7:30AM Last week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by read moreLast week’s local economic news was relatively uneventful in comparison to the busy week prior. Load-shedding continued at (relatively) high stages, while markets and analysts digested the Budget as well as the confirmation of SA being put on the grey list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The local data releases painted a mixed picture of activity and trade dynamics in early 2023. Globally, last week’s data releases can be broadly summarised in two themes. One theme is stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone (EZ) and the US. The other theme stems from the seemingly much quicker-than-anticipated rebound in the Chinese economy after the end of the zero-COVID policy. BER Weekly, 27 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 27 2023 7:45AM It was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental read moreIt was quite a week in South Africa, with power utility Eskom, and the broader power crisis, dominating the news headlines and Wednesday’s budget speech. Furthermore, in a widely anticipated move, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an inter-governmental body that sets international standards aimed at preventing global money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) activities, added SA to a list of countries under increased monitoring for failing to meet certain standards in combating ML/TF. BER Weekly, 20 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 20 2023 10:15AM The key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the read moreThe key theme of last week was the reassessment and subsequent repricing of assets in financial markets regarding the expected US monetary policy trajectory. On the back of signs of stubbornly high US inflation and recent economic data surprising on the upside, markets pushed up their expectations of the terminal policy interest rate. Expectations of a higher terminal rate led to a stronger dollar, which filtered through to commodity markets and affected investor appetite for riskier SA assets. BER Weekly, 13 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 13 2023 7:30AM In a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA read moreIn a fairly subdued week on the domestic and global data front, Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) from President Cyril Ramaphosa was the major focus. The speech was delivered against a backdrop of increased angst from consumers, business and SA financial markets about the worsening power crisis. BER Weekly, 6 February 2023 Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 7:30AM Global financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global read moreGlobal financial markets were dominated by key central bank policy decisions last week. Three major central banks raised their policy interest rates to the highest level since before the global financial crisis in 2008/9. Despite further tightening, global stock markets rose through most of the week as traders/investors had a dovish interpretation of the guidance on the interest rate trajectory. On the local front, the first data releases for January came out last week, including the Absa PMI and naamsa new vehicle sales figures. BER Weekly, 30 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 30 2023 7:45AM The ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP read moreThe ongoing, and worsening, power crisis in SA was a major theme at the central bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting last week. Besides the 25bps policy rate hike, most attention was focused on the stark downgrade to the SARB’s real GDP growth forecast for the next three years. BER Weekly, 23 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 23 2023 7:45AM Last week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did read moreLast week’s local activity data for November was a mixed bag. Following poor manufacturing and electricity generation data the week prior, it now seems clear that mining output will also weigh on real GDP growth in Q4. On the positive side, retail sales did better than expected in November and the internal trade sector as a whole may add positively to Q4 GDP growth. There were also two key inflation-related releases last week. BER Weekly 16 January 2023 Date Uploaded: Jan 16 2023 7:45AM Barely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand read moreBarely two weeks into the new year, severe (and worsening) capacity constraints forced Eskom to move to indefinite, continuous stage 6 load-shedding on Wednesday. Worryingly, the energy supply situation is unlikely to improve over the short term, while demand is set to pick up as economic activity returns following the December break.