Economic information that works for you Media & eventsRelease calendarEventsPress Releases BER press release (Archive) Documents and/or reports issued to the news media and other targeted publicationsCommunication & administration: Celeste Booysen (021-808 9755) cbooysen@sun.ac.zaMembers of the press can sign up here to the mail distribution list for BER press releases. 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 22 2020 7:54AM Sentiment in the civil construction sector, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index, increased to a still low level of 11 in 2020Q3, from 5 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the low confidence was continued pressure on activity, which, while improved compared read moreSentiment in the civil construction sector, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index, increased to a still low level of 11 in 2020Q3, from 5 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the low confidence was continued pressure on activity, which, while improved compared to 2020Q2, is likely well below the level recorded in 2019Q3. Retail survey results 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 21 2020 8:22AM The COVID-19 lockdown restrictions narrative continued to find expression in the third quarter of 2020. While retail, wholesale and motor dealer confidence edged up in Q3, trading conditions remain tough for the sector given weak sales volumes and a bleak read moreThe COVID-19 lockdown restrictions narrative continued to find expression in the third quarter of 2020. While retail, wholesale and motor dealer confidence edged up in Q3, trading conditions remain tough for the sector given weak sales volumes and a bleak macroeconomic environment. Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q3 Last updated: Sep 17 2020 2:25PM During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations read moreDuring the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations are now at a new 15-year low after first achieving this feat in the second quarter. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 15 2020 7:50AM Building sector confidence, as measured by the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased to 24 in 2020Q3, from 4 in 2020Q2. Leading this rise in confidence was a jump in sentiment among hardware retailers and building material manufacturers. This was read moreBuilding sector confidence, as measured by the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased to 24 in 2020Q3, from 4 in 2020Q2. Leading this rise in confidence was a jump in sentiment among hardware retailers and building material manufacturers. This was supported by better-than-expected sales growth. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, 2020Q3 (press release) Last updated: Sep 9 2020 11:19AM After falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth read moreAfter falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth and the RMB/BER BCI, the third quarter survey results foreshadow an improvement in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 7 2020 9:57AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from -33 to -23 in the third quarter. The partial recovery can be ascribed to increases in the household finances and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. The COVID-19 pandemic and related economic read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from -33 to -23 in the third quarter. The partial recovery can be ascribed to increases in the household finances and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. The COVID-19 pandemic and related economic restrictions delivered a profound blow to consumers' willingness and ability to spend. Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q2 Last updated: Jul 23 2020 3:05PM Average inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged read moreAverage inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.8% relative to the first quarter survey. All social groups lowered their expectations for 2020. Analysts revised their forecasts for 2020 downwards by a larger margin than business people and trade union representatives. While analysts and trade unionists expect inflation in 2021 and 2022 to be at or below the midpoint of the 3% to 6% target range, business people expect inflation to be above 5%. Other services survey results 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jul 21 2020 8:07AM The second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of read moreThe second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of the BER’s other services survey showed that business confidence in the sector plummeted from an already-low level of 17 in the first quarter to a meagre 7 in the second quarter. This is a record low in the 15-year history of the survey. The survey revealed that activity in restaurants, hotels and real estate came to a complete standstill, while transport and business services registered historically unprecedented falls in the second quarter. Along with the record low Q2 reading for the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index and the close to all-time low for the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index , the results of the other services survey provide further evidence that South Africa suffered a historic GDP decline in the second quarter. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jul 7 2020 9:42AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods dropped to a historic low of -64. Of all the income groups, the low-income group posted the largest decline in confidence. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 25 2020 8:48AM After rising from 10 to 24 between 2019Q1 and 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 5 in 2020Q2. Underlying the fall in confidence was a steep drop in activity. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 18 2020 7:53AM From an already depressed 13 in 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 4 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the fall in sentiment was a sharp drop in building activity, as expected given the hard lockdown in April and partial shutdown read moreFrom an already depressed 13 in 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 4 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the fall in sentiment was a sharp drop in building activity, as expected given the hard lockdown in April and partial shutdown in May. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2020Q2 Last updated: Jun 10 2020 11:52AM COVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975. read moreCOVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 31 2020 8:01AM The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 24 2020 8:55AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity. read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity. Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q1 Last updated: Mar 19 2020 2:16PM The downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly read moreThe downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly decline since the current downward trend started. All social groups have lowered their expectations for the current and the next calendar year by about 0.4% pts to below 5%. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q1 Last updated: Mar 16 2020 10:00AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail sales in general and durables goods in particular. Non-durable goods will continue to benefit from the stable confidence of low- and middle-income earners. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2020Q1 Last updated: Mar 11 2020 11:02AM The RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the read moreThe RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the globe all played a role. January’s 25 basis point interest rate cut was a small positive, but not enough to compensate for the negative developments. Since the survey was completed in early March, things have gone from bad to worse on the global front. The RMB/BER BCI will in all likelihood continue to trend lower in the period ahead, with obvious negative consequences for private sector fixed investment. Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q4 Last updated: Jan 16 2020 3:07PM In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), read moreIn the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), 4.8% in 2020 (-0.2% pts) and 5.0% in 2021 (-0.1%). Average inflation expectations for 2019 have fallen by 1.5% pts over three years – from 6.0% when surveyed for the first time in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.5% currently.
BER press release (Archive) Documents and/or reports issued to the news media and other targeted publicationsCommunication & administration: Celeste Booysen (021-808 9755) cbooysen@sun.ac.zaMembers of the press can sign up here to the mail distribution list for BER press releases. 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 22 2020 7:54AM Sentiment in the civil construction sector, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index, increased to a still low level of 11 in 2020Q3, from 5 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the low confidence was continued pressure on activity, which, while improved compared read moreSentiment in the civil construction sector, as measured by the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index, increased to a still low level of 11 in 2020Q3, from 5 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the low confidence was continued pressure on activity, which, while improved compared to 2020Q2, is likely well below the level recorded in 2019Q3. Retail survey results 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 21 2020 8:22AM The COVID-19 lockdown restrictions narrative continued to find expression in the third quarter of 2020. While retail, wholesale and motor dealer confidence edged up in Q3, trading conditions remain tough for the sector given weak sales volumes and a bleak read moreThe COVID-19 lockdown restrictions narrative continued to find expression in the third quarter of 2020. While retail, wholesale and motor dealer confidence edged up in Q3, trading conditions remain tough for the sector given weak sales volumes and a bleak macroeconomic environment. Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q3 Last updated: Sep 17 2020 2:25PM During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations read moreDuring the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation expectations are now at a new 15-year low after first achieving this feat in the second quarter. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 15 2020 7:50AM Building sector confidence, as measured by the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased to 24 in 2020Q3, from 4 in 2020Q2. Leading this rise in confidence was a jump in sentiment among hardware retailers and building material manufacturers. This was read moreBuilding sector confidence, as measured by the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased to 24 in 2020Q3, from 4 in 2020Q2. Leading this rise in confidence was a jump in sentiment among hardware retailers and building material manufacturers. This was supported by better-than-expected sales growth. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, 2020Q3 (press release) Last updated: Sep 9 2020 11:19AM After falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth read moreAfter falling from 18 to an all-time low of five in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rebounded to 24 in the third quarter. Business confidence recovered in all the sectors making up the BCI. Given the close historical relationship between real GDP growth and the RMB/BER BCI, the third quarter survey results foreshadow an improvement in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 7 2020 9:57AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from -33 to -23 in the third quarter. The partial recovery can be ascribed to increases in the household finances and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. The COVID-19 pandemic and related economic read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased from -33 to -23 in the third quarter. The partial recovery can be ascribed to increases in the household finances and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. The COVID-19 pandemic and related economic restrictions delivered a profound blow to consumers' willingness and ability to spend. Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q2 Last updated: Jul 23 2020 3:05PM Average inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged read moreAverage inflation expectations for 2020 declined from 4.4% to 3.9%. For the current calendar year, expectations are the lowest in 15 years (since 05Q2). Expectations for 2021 decreased by 0.1 percentage point (%pts) to 4.5%. Those for 2022 remained unchanged at 4.8% relative to the first quarter survey. All social groups lowered their expectations for 2020. Analysts revised their forecasts for 2020 downwards by a larger margin than business people and trade union representatives. While analysts and trade unionists expect inflation in 2021 and 2022 to be at or below the midpoint of the 3% to 6% target range, business people expect inflation to be above 5%. Other services survey results 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jul 21 2020 8:07AM The second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of read moreThe second-quarter results of a long-running internal BER survey (made public for the first time), once again confirmed the devastating economic fallout of the phased lockdown restrictions imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The latest results of the BER’s other services survey showed that business confidence in the sector plummeted from an already-low level of 17 in the first quarter to a meagre 7 in the second quarter. This is a record low in the 15-year history of the survey. The survey revealed that activity in restaurants, hotels and real estate came to a complete standstill, while transport and business services registered historically unprecedented falls in the second quarter. Along with the record low Q2 reading for the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index and the close to all-time low for the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index , the results of the other services survey provide further evidence that South Africa suffered a historic GDP decline in the second quarter. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jul 7 2020 9:42AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) plummeted from an already depressed level of -9 in the first quarter to a shocking -33 in the second quarter. All three of the sub-indices of the CCI declined in the second quarter. The time to buy durable goods dropped to a historic low of -64. Of all the income groups, the low-income group posted the largest decline in confidence. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 25 2020 8:48AM After rising from 10 to 24 between 2019Q1 and 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 5 in 2020Q2. Underlying the fall in confidence was a steep drop in activity. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 18 2020 7:53AM From an already depressed 13 in 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 4 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the fall in sentiment was a sharp drop in building activity, as expected given the hard lockdown in April and partial shutdown read moreFrom an already depressed 13 in 2020Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to an all-time low of 4 in 2020Q2. Underpinning the fall in sentiment was a sharp drop in building activity, as expected given the hard lockdown in April and partial shutdown in May. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2020Q2 Last updated: Jun 10 2020 11:52AM COVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975. read moreCOVID-19 has drastically changed the already-weak economic landscape. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell to merely five points, the lowest level ever recorded since the BER first began conducting its business confidence survey in 1975. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 31 2020 8:01AM The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose for the fourth straight quarter in 2020Q1. However, at 24, the index still signifies that the majority of civil contractors are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2020Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 24 2020 8:55AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity. read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell by 12 points to 13 in 2020Q1. This is the worst level of the index since 1998Q3. Underpinning the decline in confidence was a broad-based deterioration in activity. Inflation Expectations Press 2020Q1 Last updated: Mar 19 2020 2:16PM The downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly read moreThe downward trend in average inflation expectations, which started in the third quarter of 2018, persisted in the first quarter of 2020. Average inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021 declined by 0.4 percentage points (% pts). This is the largest quarterly decline since the current downward trend started. All social groups have lowered their expectations for the current and the next calendar year by about 0.4% pts to below 5%. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2020Q1 Last updated: Mar 16 2020 10:00AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by a further 2 points. The time-to-buy sub-index plunged to a 33-year low. High-income earners’ confidence dropped to a 20-year low. The low confidence of the high-income group does not bode well for retail sales in general and durables goods in particular. Non-durable goods will continue to benefit from the stable confidence of low- and middle-income earners. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2020Q1 Last updated: Mar 11 2020 11:02AM The RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the read moreThe RMB/BER BCI slumped by eight points to 18 in the first quarter of 2020 - a 21-year low. Persistent demand weakness, load shedding, bailouts of struggling SOE’s, the deterioration in the government’s finances and the spreading of the coronavirus around the globe all played a role. January’s 25 basis point interest rate cut was a small positive, but not enough to compensate for the negative developments. Since the survey was completed in early March, things have gone from bad to worse on the global front. The RMB/BER BCI will in all likelihood continue to trend lower in the period ahead, with obvious negative consequences for private sector fixed investment. Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q4 Last updated: Jan 16 2020 3:07PM In the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), read moreIn the fourth quarter of 2019, average inflation expectations for all three forecast years declined further. Analysts, business people and trade union representatives on average expect headline inflation to be 4.5% in 2019 (0.1% pt lower than previously), 4.8% in 2020 (-0.2% pts) and 5.0% in 2021 (-0.1%). Average inflation expectations for 2019 have fallen by 1.5% pts over three years – from 6.0% when surveyed for the first time in the first quarter of 2017 to 4.5% currently.