Economic information that works for you Media & eventsRelease calendarEventsPress Releases BER press release (Archive) Documents and/or reports issued to the news media and other targeted publicationsCommunication & administration: Celeste Booysen (021-808 9755) cbooysen@sun.ac.zaMembers of the press can sign up here to the mail distribution list for BER press releases. 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q3 Last updated: Sep 19 2019 12:41PM In the third quarter, analysts, business people and trade unionists on average expect inflation to pick up from 4.6% (4.8% previously) in 2019 to 5.0% (5.0%) in 2020 and 5.1% (5.2%) in 2021. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q3 Last updated: Sep 17 2019 8:09AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six sub-sectors surveyed reported lower confidence, led by a 22- index-point drop in building sub-contractor confidence. In contrast, building material manufacturer confidence increased to 39. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q3 Last updated: Sep 11 2019 11:01AM The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up read moreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up the BCI. The only sector that showed an improvement was the motor trade, but even so, the index is still low. Not only did a growing majority of respondents in the third quarter experienced worse business conditions than 12 months ago, but it would appear if more and more business people participating in the survey are simply giving up hope. Courageous leadership is required to reverse this concerning development. Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q2 Last updated: Jul 18 2019 10:45AM In the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in read moreIn the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021, down from the 5.2% and 5.3% previously. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2019Q2 Last updated: Jun 24 2019 3:03PM Business sentiment among civil contractors remained in the doldrums in 2019Q2. After falling to an all-time record low of 10 in 2019Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence index edged a mere one point higher to 11 in 2019Q2. read moreBusiness sentiment among civil contractors remained in the doldrums in 2019Q2. After falling to an all-time record low of 10 in 2019Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence index edged a mere one point higher to 11 in 2019Q2. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q2 Last updated: Jun 18 2019 8:17AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a gain of 4 points to 29 in 2019Q2. While confidence was higher, growth in activity was broadly unchanged. In contrast, activity at the start of the building pipeline (architects and quantity surveyors) read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a gain of 4 points to 29 in 2019Q2. While confidence was higher, growth in activity was broadly unchanged. In contrast, activity at the start of the building pipeline (architects and quantity surveyors) improved. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q2 Last updated: Jun 13 2019 11:50AM The RMB/BER BCI flatlined at a worryingly low 28 in the second quarter. Sentiment improved in the building, retail and wholesale trade. Yet, improvements on balance were marginal and fully offset by a renewed sharp drop in the confidence of new vehicle read moreThe RMB/BER BCI flatlined at a worryingly low 28 in the second quarter. Sentiment improved in the building, retail and wholesale trade. Yet, improvements on balance were marginal and fully offset by a renewed sharp drop in the confidence of new vehicle dealers while the confidence of manufacturers slid even further. The latest survey results have dampened hopes of a strong bounce-back following the first quarter’s contraction in GDP. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, 2019Q2 Last updated: May 29 2019 9:47AM After wilting during the first quarter of 2019, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered slightly during 2019Q2. Following the shock implementation of stage 4 load shedding by Eskom during the first quarter, significantly fewer blackouts during read moreAfter wilting during the first quarter of 2019, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered slightly during 2019Q2. Following the shock implementation of stage 4 load shedding by Eskom during the first quarter, significantly fewer blackouts during the second quarter probably heartened some consumers. More importantly, the opportunity to vote in South Africa’s 6th democratic election since the end of apartheid most likely buoyed consumers’ hopes for the future. However, household budgets remain constrained by higher personal income taxes, sharp fuel and electricity price hikes and rising unemployment rates. All in all, we expect a further deterioration in real consumer spending growth during 2019. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Apr 24 2019 9:53AM After holding steady between the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) renewed its downward trajectory during 2019Q1. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during the first quarter mirrors the drop in the RMB/BER read moreAfter holding steady between the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) renewed its downward trajectory during 2019Q1. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during the first quarter mirrors the drop in the RMB/BER business confidence index and points to dismal growth in consumer spending in the first half of 2019. Although the national election in May could see a transitory uptick in consumer sentiment, real after-tax household income will likely remain under pressure throughout 2019. Inflation Expectations 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 28 2019 1:08PM In the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to 5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge read moreIn the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to 5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge up marginally to 5.3% in 2021. Of all the social groups, business people made the biggest downward adjustment in their expectations, namely from 5.7% to 5.1% in respect of 2019 and from 5.8% to 5.3% for 2020. Trade unions scaled their forecasts for 2019 and 2020 back by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points (% pts) and analysts by 0.5 and 0.1% pts respectively. FNB Civil Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 26 2019 8:51AM After remaining largely unchanged in 2018Q4, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed 8 points to register its lowest level ever of 10. Confidence was lower largely on the back of weaker activity growth, which also weighed on profitability. read moreAfter remaining largely unchanged in 2018Q4, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed 8 points to register its lowest level ever of 10. Confidence was lower largely on the back of weaker activity growth, which also weighed on profitability. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 18 2019 8:16AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 7 points to reach an almost eight-year low of 25. During the quarter, two of the six sub-sectors registered higher confidence. Of the four that registered lower confidence, manufacturers (-24) and hardware retailers read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 7 points to reach an almost eight-year low of 25. During the quarter, two of the six sub-sectors registered higher confidence. Of the four that registered lower confidence, manufacturers (-24) and hardware retailers (-23) saw the biggest decline. Overall, the results suggest an intensification of the weak demand conditions plaguing the sector over the past few quarters, with little relief on the horizon RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 13 2019 11:54AM A broad-based weakening in activity pushed confidence down to worrying lows. The RMB/BER BCI declined by a further three points to 28 in the first quarter of 2019. This is the lowest level since the 27 index points recorded in the second quarter of 2017, and read moreA broad-based weakening in activity pushed confidence down to worrying lows. The RMB/BER BCI declined by a further three points to 28 in the first quarter of 2019. This is the lowest level since the 27 index points recorded in the second quarter of 2017, and before that, the deep recession of 2009. Striking in the first quarter results is how broad-based the weakness in activity has become. Since taking over the reins, President Ramaphosa has launched several initiatives to help reverse South Africa’s decline. But more than this is necessary to get South Africa out of its low-growth bind. Forceful, and in some instances, unpopular structural reforms must also form part of the mix. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2018Q4 Last updated: Jan 24 2019 10:01AM After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked read moreAfter falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate.
BER press release (Archive) Documents and/or reports issued to the news media and other targeted publicationsCommunication & administration: Celeste Booysen (021-808 9755) cbooysen@sun.ac.zaMembers of the press can sign up here to the mail distribution list for BER press releases. 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q3 Last updated: Sep 19 2019 12:41PM In the third quarter, analysts, business people and trade unionists on average expect inflation to pick up from 4.6% (4.8% previously) in 2019 to 5.0% (5.0%) in 2020 and 5.1% (5.2%) in 2021. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q3 Last updated: Sep 17 2019 8:09AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index fell to a multi-year low of 22 in 2019Q3, from 29 in 2019Q2. The current level of the index indicates that close to 80 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Five of the six sub-sectors surveyed reported lower confidence, led by a 22- index-point drop in building sub-contractor confidence. In contrast, building material manufacturer confidence increased to 39. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q3 Last updated: Sep 11 2019 11:01AM The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up read moreThe RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) plunged to a 20-year low of 21 in the third quarter. Not even during the height of the global financial crisis in 2009 have executives been this downbeat. Confidence collapsed in four of the five sectors making up the BCI. The only sector that showed an improvement was the motor trade, but even so, the index is still low. Not only did a growing majority of respondents in the third quarter experienced worse business conditions than 12 months ago, but it would appear if more and more business people participating in the survey are simply giving up hope. Courageous leadership is required to reverse this concerning development. Inflation Expectations Press 2019Q2 Last updated: Jul 18 2019 10:45AM In the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in read moreIn the second quarter, average inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.8% in respect of 2019, but declined further in respect of both subsequent years. Analysts, business people and trade unions foresee inflation to average 5.0% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021, down from the 5.2% and 5.3% previously. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2019Q2 Last updated: Jun 24 2019 3:03PM Business sentiment among civil contractors remained in the doldrums in 2019Q2. After falling to an all-time record low of 10 in 2019Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence index edged a mere one point higher to 11 in 2019Q2. read moreBusiness sentiment among civil contractors remained in the doldrums in 2019Q2. After falling to an all-time record low of 10 in 2019Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence index edged a mere one point higher to 11 in 2019Q2. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q2 Last updated: Jun 18 2019 8:17AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a gain of 4 points to 29 in 2019Q2. While confidence was higher, growth in activity was broadly unchanged. In contrast, activity at the start of the building pipeline (architects and quantity surveyors) read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index registered a gain of 4 points to 29 in 2019Q2. While confidence was higher, growth in activity was broadly unchanged. In contrast, activity at the start of the building pipeline (architects and quantity surveyors) improved. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q2 Last updated: Jun 13 2019 11:50AM The RMB/BER BCI flatlined at a worryingly low 28 in the second quarter. Sentiment improved in the building, retail and wholesale trade. Yet, improvements on balance were marginal and fully offset by a renewed sharp drop in the confidence of new vehicle read moreThe RMB/BER BCI flatlined at a worryingly low 28 in the second quarter. Sentiment improved in the building, retail and wholesale trade. Yet, improvements on balance were marginal and fully offset by a renewed sharp drop in the confidence of new vehicle dealers while the confidence of manufacturers slid even further. The latest survey results have dampened hopes of a strong bounce-back following the first quarter’s contraction in GDP. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, 2019Q2 Last updated: May 29 2019 9:47AM After wilting during the first quarter of 2019, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered slightly during 2019Q2. Following the shock implementation of stage 4 load shedding by Eskom during the first quarter, significantly fewer blackouts during read moreAfter wilting during the first quarter of 2019, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered slightly during 2019Q2. Following the shock implementation of stage 4 load shedding by Eskom during the first quarter, significantly fewer blackouts during the second quarter probably heartened some consumers. More importantly, the opportunity to vote in South Africa’s 6th democratic election since the end of apartheid most likely buoyed consumers’ hopes for the future. However, household budgets remain constrained by higher personal income taxes, sharp fuel and electricity price hikes and rising unemployment rates. All in all, we expect a further deterioration in real consumer spending growth during 2019. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Apr 24 2019 9:53AM After holding steady between the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) renewed its downward trajectory during 2019Q1. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during the first quarter mirrors the drop in the RMB/BER read moreAfter holding steady between the third and fourth quarters of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) renewed its downward trajectory during 2019Q1. The deterioration in consumer sentiment during the first quarter mirrors the drop in the RMB/BER business confidence index and points to dismal growth in consumer spending in the first half of 2019. Although the national election in May could see a transitory uptick in consumer sentiment, real after-tax household income will likely remain under pressure throughout 2019. Inflation Expectations 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 28 2019 1:08PM In the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to 5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge read moreIn the first quarter of 2019, inflation expectations for both 2019 and 2020 declined across all social groups relative to the previous quarter. The average for 2019 declined from 5.4% to 4.8% and for 2020 from 5.4% to 5.2%. Inflation is expected to edge up marginally to 5.3% in 2021. Of all the social groups, business people made the biggest downward adjustment in their expectations, namely from 5.7% to 5.1% in respect of 2019 and from 5.8% to 5.3% for 2020. Trade unions scaled their forecasts for 2019 and 2020 back by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points (% pts) and analysts by 0.5 and 0.1% pts respectively. FNB Civil Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 26 2019 8:51AM After remaining largely unchanged in 2018Q4, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed 8 points to register its lowest level ever of 10. Confidence was lower largely on the back of weaker activity growth, which also weighed on profitability. read moreAfter remaining largely unchanged in 2018Q4, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed 8 points to register its lowest level ever of 10. Confidence was lower largely on the back of weaker activity growth, which also weighed on profitability. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 18 2019 8:16AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 7 points to reach an almost eight-year low of 25. During the quarter, two of the six sub-sectors registered higher confidence. Of the four that registered lower confidence, manufacturers (-24) and hardware retailers read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index lost 7 points to reach an almost eight-year low of 25. During the quarter, two of the six sub-sectors registered higher confidence. Of the four that registered lower confidence, manufacturers (-24) and hardware retailers (-23) saw the biggest decline. Overall, the results suggest an intensification of the weak demand conditions plaguing the sector over the past few quarters, with little relief on the horizon RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2019Q1 Last updated: Mar 13 2019 11:54AM A broad-based weakening in activity pushed confidence down to worrying lows. The RMB/BER BCI declined by a further three points to 28 in the first quarter of 2019. This is the lowest level since the 27 index points recorded in the second quarter of 2017, and read moreA broad-based weakening in activity pushed confidence down to worrying lows. The RMB/BER BCI declined by a further three points to 28 in the first quarter of 2019. This is the lowest level since the 27 index points recorded in the second quarter of 2017, and before that, the deep recession of 2009. Striking in the first quarter results is how broad-based the weakness in activity has become. Since taking over the reins, President Ramaphosa has launched several initiatives to help reverse South Africa’s decline. But more than this is necessary to get South Africa out of its low-growth bind. Forceful, and in some instances, unpopular structural reforms must also form part of the mix. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2018Q4 Last updated: Jan 24 2019 10:01AM After falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked read moreAfter falling sharply in the third quarter of 2018, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) held steady during 2018Q4. Consumer sentiment settled at a much lower level during the second half of 2018 compared to the extraordinarily positive numbers booked at the height of Ramaphoria. Nevertheless, the latest reading is still above the long-run average reading for the CCI, suggesting that most consumers are fairly optimistic with respect to the outlook for the SA economy and their own household finances. However, order for a more enduring and significant improvement in consumer spending to take hold, household income and credit growth will also need to accelerate.