Economic information that works for you Media & eventsRelease calendarEventsPress Releases (Archive) 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, 2021Q4, press release Last updated: Nov 29 2021 3:04PM After slipping to 35 in 2021Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index was marginally lower at 34 in 2021Q4. Importantly, the “core” building sector index (excluding the hardware retailers and building material manufacturing sector) rose to 27, from 20 in read moreAfter slipping to 35 in 2021Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index was marginally lower at 34 in 2021Q4. Importantly, the “core” building sector index (excluding the hardware retailers and building material manufacturing sector) rose to 27, from 20 in 2021Q3. Although still very low, this is the best level since 2019Q2. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q4, press release Last updated: Nov 24 2021 8:24AM After falling from 50 to 43 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2021. The outcome could easily have been better were it not for a variety of special factors that kept sentiment subdued. read moreAfter falling from 50 to 43 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2021. The outcome could easily have been better were it not for a variety of special factors that kept sentiment subdued. SA’s municipal challenges and their impact on local economic development, press release Last updated: Oct 15 2021 8:20AM The upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the read moreThe upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the infrastructure and basic services that municipalities should provide, local economic development is likely to remain constrained. This makes it more difficult to broaden economic participation and reverse South Africa’s unemployment trend. Other services survey results 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 29 2021 8:18AM Although the further improvement of confidence in the other services sector during the third quarter is a welcome development, this was limited to the business services sub-sector. The harsher lockdown and unrest hit confidence in all the other sub-sectors read moreAlthough the further improvement of confidence in the other services sector during the third quarter is a welcome development, this was limited to the business services sub-sector. The harsher lockdown and unrest hit confidence in all the other sub-sectors (accommodation, hospitality, transport and real estate). The COVID-19 pandemic and South Africa’s tourism sector Last updated: Sep 26 2021 6:04PM The South African tourism sector is without a doubt one of the industries that has been hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest available data suggests that the shock to the industry resulted in severe revenue losses. Due to its linkages to the rest read moreThe South African tourism sector is without a doubt one of the industries that has been hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest available data suggests that the shock to the industry resulted in severe revenue losses. Due to its linkages to the rest of the economy, the sector’s contribution to GDP shrank from 7.2% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2020, and the number of jobs supported by the industry declined from 1.6 million to 640 000. Inflation Expectations Press 2021Q3 Last updated: Sep 23 2021 12:37PM In the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were read moreIn the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered by small downward revisions for those of analysts and trade union representatives. The changes relative to the previous quarter are small. This could be that they merely reflect the variations that arise when samples are used to generate results. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 20 2021 5:47PM After falling to 13 in 2021Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged higher to 17. The index has been around the 20-point mark since the middle of 2017. The current index level means that the vast majority (more than eighty per cent) of respondents are read moreAfter falling to 13 in 2021Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged higher to 17. The index has been around the 20-point mark since the middle of 2017. The current index level means that the vast majority (more than eighty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Retail survey results 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 20 2021 8:48AM Retailer confidence increased marginally by 2 index points to reach a 7-year high of 56 in the third quarter of 2021 – up from 54 in the second quarter. At this level, sentiment is essentially above its long-term average of 39. While this is certainly a read moreRetailer confidence increased marginally by 2 index points to reach a 7-year high of 56 in the third quarter of 2021 – up from 54 in the second quarter. At this level, sentiment is essentially above its long-term average of 39. While this is certainly a positive development, especially in the aftermath of violent protests and stricter trade restrictions amid a third wave of infections, this confidence was unfortunately not broad-based. Confidence was largely driven by non-durable goods (food and beverages) and hardware retailers on the back of improved sales volumes in these categories. Despite this improvement in sentiment, retailers faced a tough operating environment overall. Absa Manufacturing Survey 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 15 2021 9:39AM The Q3 Absa Manufacturing Survey saw a slight dip in overall sector confidence, with business confidence falling five points to 41 during the quarter. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 14 2021 7:58AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index declined to 35 in 2021Q3, from 39 in 2021Q2. This means that, across the building sector pipeline, 65% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. While the composite index remains higher than the read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index declined to 35 in 2021Q3, from 39 in 2021Q2. This means that, across the building sector pipeline, 65% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. While the composite index remains higher than the average of the past few years, it is concerning that the index excluding the hardware retail and building material manufacturing sector – a measure of confidence in the “core” building sector – fell to 20, from 25 in 2021Q2. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 8 2021 8:55AM After surging by 15 points to 50 in the second quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence index (BCI) retreated to 43 in the third quarter. The unexpected shock of the looting, combined with a variety of other negatives, knocked business confidence hard in the read moreAfter surging by 15 points to 50 in the second quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence index (BCI) retreated to 43 in the third quarter. The unexpected shock of the looting, combined with a variety of other negatives, knocked business confidence hard in the third quarter. However, retail and wholesale trade confidence (which held up relatively well) cushioned the blow, while manufacturing confidence only fell by five points after the strong 21-point gain in the second quarter. Thanks to this resilience, the adverse developments in the third quarter are likely to only deliver a temporary setback to what otherwise remains a cyclical economic recovery. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 6 2021 8:59AM Having slipped from -9 to -13 index points during the second quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered some lost ground to -10 in the third quarter of 2021. The partial recovery can be ascribed to upticks in the household read moreHaving slipped from -9 to -13 index points during the second quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered some lost ground to -10 in the third quarter of 2021. The partial recovery can be ascribed to upticks in the household financial position and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. Fiscal support in the form of the reintroduction of the SRD grant and cash allowances for government employees to a large extent countered the adverse impacts of the civil unrest on consumer confidence. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations to the 35-49 age group from 15 July and subsequently to the 18-35 age group from 20 August probably also bolstered the confidence levels of these age groups. In all, the latest reading points to a level of resilience among consumers and by extension consumer spending during the third quarter of 2021. Research Note: The changing landscape of sustainable finance, Press release Last updated: Aug 19 2021 3:16PM The climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research read moreThe climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research Note explores how climate change might affect financial stability and how trends in sustainable finance could help respond to the associated threats and opportunities. Inflation Expectations Press 2021Q2 Last updated: Jul 22 2021 2:59PM Inflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts read moreInflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts respectively in the most recent survey. Respondents, on average, expect inflation to edge up from 4.2% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023. Other services survey results 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 30 2021 8:24AM Confidence in the other services sector rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, from 30 in the first quarter to 34 in the second quarter. Despite the increase, the level of confidence remained low relative to the other sectors covered by the BER, bar the read moreConfidence in the other services sector rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, from 30 in the first quarter to 34 in the second quarter. Despite the increase, the level of confidence remained low relative to the other sectors covered by the BER, bar the building sector. The upswing in real estate activity and land freight transport gained further traction. In contrast, the improvement in activity in hotels, restaurants and business services was modest. The move to adjusted alert level 4 on 28 June (i.e. after the completion of the survey), which prohibited alcohol sales and limited restaurants to take-aways, is likely to set back the recovery of restaurants and lead to another round of permanent closures and job losses. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 28 2021 11:15AM After recovering further from -12 to -9 index points during the first quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) backpedalled to -13 in the second quarter of 2021. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 24 2021 8:03AM The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose steadily between 2020Q3 and 2021Q1. This quarter, however, the index fell to 13, from 21 in 2021Q1. While respondents were somewhat disappointed with the level of activity, the extent to which confidence declined was read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose steadily between 2020Q3 and 2021Q1. This quarter, however, the index fell to 13, from 21 in 2021Q1. While respondents were somewhat disappointed with the level of activity, the extent to which confidence declined was not entirely supported by the underlying indicators. Retail survey results 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 21 2021 10:12AM Business confidence surged across all trade sectors in the second quarter of 2021. Retailers, wholesalers and new vehicle traders were optimistic about improved trading conditions and higher sales volumes, which in turn boosted profitability and supported read moreBusiness confidence surged across all trade sectors in the second quarter of 2021. Retailers, wholesalers and new vehicle traders were optimistic about improved trading conditions and higher sales volumes, which in turn boosted profitability and supported confidence. While the improvement in sentiment is no doubt encouraging, uncertainties remain with SA now in the midst of a third wave of the pandemic. Renewed lockdown restrictions to curb the spread of the virus will certainly harm the sector. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 14 2021 8:21AM After slipping to 27 in 2021Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased notably to 39 in 2021Q2. Even though this is the highest level of the index since 2018Q1, at the current level, more than 60% of respondents are still dissatisfied with current read moreAfter slipping to 27 in 2021Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased notably to 39 in 2021Q2. Even though this is the highest level of the index since 2018Q1, at the current level, more than 60% of respondents are still dissatisfied with current business conditions. Additionally, most of the improved sentiment came from two sectors namely: building material manufacturers and hardware retailers. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 9 2021 10:00AM After declining by five points in the first quarter, the RMB/BER BCI jumped by 15 to 50 in the second quarter. Confidence rebounded especially sharply in the manufacturing, retail trade and motor trade sectors. By contrast, sentiment among building read moreAfter declining by five points in the first quarter, the RMB/BER BCI jumped by 15 to 50 in the second quarter. Confidence rebounded especially sharply in the manufacturing, retail trade and motor trade sectors. By contrast, sentiment among building contractors and the wholesale trade sector improved only marginally. While the improvement in sentiment is no doubt encouraging, uncertainties remain. Other services survey results 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 31 2021 8:24AM Although the first quarter’s further improvement of confidence and activity in the other services sector are welcome developments, bar property sales, these indicators remained at deeply depressed levels. The absence of international tourists, as well as read moreAlthough the first quarter’s further improvement of confidence and activity in the other services sector are welcome developments, bar property sales, these indicators remained at deeply depressed levels. The absence of international tourists, as well as COVID-related restrictions (such as the permitted number of people at gatherings) and anxiety, are hurting the hospitality, conferencing, exhibition and passenger transport industry in particular. A stronger, sustainable recovery in these industries is only likely to start in 2022 once vaccinations have been rolled out more widely and international travel resumes. Growth in freight transport, property management and business services is likely to be pedestrian until the recovery of the rest of the economy gains further traction Inflation Expectations 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 25 2021 12:19PM In the first quarter of 2021, average expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions are that headline consumer (CPI) inflation will be 3.9% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. It is rare in the survey’s history of 21 years that the read moreIn the first quarter of 2021, average expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions are that headline consumer (CPI) inflation will be 3.9% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. It is rare in the survey’s history of 21 years that the expectations of business people match those of analysts and that the expectations of trade union representatives are below those of analysts. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 24 2021 7:33AM After rising to 16 in 2021Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained a further five points to register a level of 21 in 2021Q1. Higher activity this quarter boosted sentiment. Absa Manufacturing Survey 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 23 2021 11:27AM According to the Absa Manufacturing Survey , manufacturing business confidence declined to 25 index points in 2021Q1 after two consecutive increases had brought the index to 31 points in 2020Q4. At the current level, only a quarter of respondents were read moreAccording to the Absa Manufacturing Survey , manufacturing business confidence declined to 25 index points in 2021Q1 after two consecutive increases had brought the index to 31 points in 2020Q4. At the current level, only a quarter of respondents were satisfied with prevailing business conditions. Retail survey results 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 23 2021 10:03AM As expected, the trade sector experienced another tough start to the new year. Much of the performance of the sector still largely reflects a COVID-19 narrative. In the first quarter of 2021, retailer and new vehicle trader confidence declined, while read moreAs expected, the trade sector experienced another tough start to the new year. Much of the performance of the sector still largely reflects a COVID-19 narrative. In the first quarter of 2021, retailer and new vehicle trader confidence declined, while wholesaler confidence remained largely unchanged despite a tough business environment and low sales volumes. Significant risks lie ahead for the trade sector with the prospect of a third wave in SA looming amid a very slow vaccine rollout. Renewed lockdown restrictions to curb the spread of the virus will certainly harm the sector. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 16 2021 9:18AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased by another 3 index points to a level of -9 in the first quarter of 2021. The recovery to -9 index points brings the CCI back in line with the reading recorded in March 2020, just before South Africa read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased by another 3 index points to a level of -9 in the first quarter of 2021. The recovery to -9 index points brings the CCI back in line with the reading recorded in March 2020, just before South Africa entered its first strict nationwide lockdown. Although it is heartening that the CCI has now recovered most of its COVID-19-induced losses, consumer confidence in general remains depressed - the latest reading of -9 is still well below the average CCI reading of +2 since 1994. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 15 2021 8:13AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index slipped by two points to 27 in 2021Q1. Activity was also broadly lower which contributed to the slight decline in sentiment. However, of particular concern is the activity levels in the non-residential building sector. read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index slipped by two points to 27 in 2021Q1. Activity was also broadly lower which contributed to the slight decline in sentiment. However, of particular concern is the activity levels in the non-residential building sector. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 10 2021 9:57AM The RMB/BER BCI declined from 40 to 35 in the first quarter of 2021. This means close to seven out of ten senior executives expressed dissatisfaction with prevailing business conditions, up from six previously. Retail saw the biggest decline, followed by read moreThe RMB/BER BCI declined from 40 to 35 in the first quarter of 2021. This means close to seven out of ten senior executives expressed dissatisfaction with prevailing business conditions, up from six previously. Retail saw the biggest decline, followed by manufacturing and new vehicle dealers. Sentiment among building contractors and wholesale traders deteriorated slightly. Such underlying dynamics are not reflective of a robust economic upswing. New report reflects on progress towards NDP objectives Last updated: Feb 18 2021 12:08PM In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as read moreIn collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as short and concise a format as possible. This report shows progress in South Africa’s development in some areas, though outcomes have fallen short of the NDP’s aspirations in several key indicators. Strong corrective action is needed to achieve the targets of the NDP. Success will require a collective effort by all of society – government, the private sector, churches and NGOs – to realise these goals. With the Annual NDP Assessment Report, the BER and its network of collaborators hope to contribute to the accelerated, and ultimately successful, implementation of the NDP as we traverse the journey to 2030.
(Archive) 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, 2021Q4, press release Last updated: Nov 29 2021 3:04PM After slipping to 35 in 2021Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index was marginally lower at 34 in 2021Q4. Importantly, the “core” building sector index (excluding the hardware retailers and building material manufacturing sector) rose to 27, from 20 in read moreAfter slipping to 35 in 2021Q3, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index was marginally lower at 34 in 2021Q4. Importantly, the “core” building sector index (excluding the hardware retailers and building material manufacturing sector) rose to 27, from 20 in 2021Q3. Although still very low, this is the best level since 2019Q2. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q4, press release Last updated: Nov 24 2021 8:24AM After falling from 50 to 43 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2021. The outcome could easily have been better were it not for a variety of special factors that kept sentiment subdued. read moreAfter falling from 50 to 43 in the third quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2021. The outcome could easily have been better were it not for a variety of special factors that kept sentiment subdued. SA’s municipal challenges and their impact on local economic development, press release Last updated: Oct 15 2021 8:20AM The upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the read moreThe upcoming local elections put municipal performance under the spotlight. This BER Research Note explores some of the underlying problems that contribute to local government failure and the poor state of service delivery in many municipalities. Without the infrastructure and basic services that municipalities should provide, local economic development is likely to remain constrained. This makes it more difficult to broaden economic participation and reverse South Africa’s unemployment trend. Other services survey results 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 29 2021 8:18AM Although the further improvement of confidence in the other services sector during the third quarter is a welcome development, this was limited to the business services sub-sector. The harsher lockdown and unrest hit confidence in all the other sub-sectors read moreAlthough the further improvement of confidence in the other services sector during the third quarter is a welcome development, this was limited to the business services sub-sector. The harsher lockdown and unrest hit confidence in all the other sub-sectors (accommodation, hospitality, transport and real estate). The COVID-19 pandemic and South Africa’s tourism sector Last updated: Sep 26 2021 6:04PM The South African tourism sector is without a doubt one of the industries that has been hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest available data suggests that the shock to the industry resulted in severe revenue losses. Due to its linkages to the rest read moreThe South African tourism sector is without a doubt one of the industries that has been hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest available data suggests that the shock to the industry resulted in severe revenue losses. Due to its linkages to the rest of the economy, the sector’s contribution to GDP shrank from 7.2% in 2018 to 2.9% in 2020, and the number of jobs supported by the industry declined from 1.6 million to 640 000. Inflation Expectations Press 2021Q3 Last updated: Sep 23 2021 12:37PM In the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were read moreIn the third quarter of 2021, average inflation expectations for all three forecast periods remained unchanged compared to the previous survey. The average remained stable because minor upward adjustments in the expectations of business people were countered by small downward revisions for those of analysts and trade union representatives. The changes relative to the previous quarter are small. This could be that they merely reflect the variations that arise when samples are used to generate results. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 20 2021 5:47PM After falling to 13 in 2021Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged higher to 17. The index has been around the 20-point mark since the middle of 2017. The current index level means that the vast majority (more than eighty per cent) of respondents are read moreAfter falling to 13 in 2021Q2, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index edged higher to 17. The index has been around the 20-point mark since the middle of 2017. The current index level means that the vast majority (more than eighty per cent) of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. Retail survey results 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 20 2021 8:48AM Retailer confidence increased marginally by 2 index points to reach a 7-year high of 56 in the third quarter of 2021 – up from 54 in the second quarter. At this level, sentiment is essentially above its long-term average of 39. While this is certainly a read moreRetailer confidence increased marginally by 2 index points to reach a 7-year high of 56 in the third quarter of 2021 – up from 54 in the second quarter. At this level, sentiment is essentially above its long-term average of 39. While this is certainly a positive development, especially in the aftermath of violent protests and stricter trade restrictions amid a third wave of infections, this confidence was unfortunately not broad-based. Confidence was largely driven by non-durable goods (food and beverages) and hardware retailers on the back of improved sales volumes in these categories. Despite this improvement in sentiment, retailers faced a tough operating environment overall. Absa Manufacturing Survey 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 15 2021 9:39AM The Q3 Absa Manufacturing Survey saw a slight dip in overall sector confidence, with business confidence falling five points to 41 during the quarter. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 14 2021 7:58AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index declined to 35 in 2021Q3, from 39 in 2021Q2. This means that, across the building sector pipeline, 65% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. While the composite index remains higher than the read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index declined to 35 in 2021Q3, from 39 in 2021Q2. This means that, across the building sector pipeline, 65% of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions. While the composite index remains higher than the average of the past few years, it is concerning that the index excluding the hardware retail and building material manufacturing sector – a measure of confidence in the “core” building sector – fell to 20, from 25 in 2021Q2. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 8 2021 8:55AM After surging by 15 points to 50 in the second quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence index (BCI) retreated to 43 in the third quarter. The unexpected shock of the looting, combined with a variety of other negatives, knocked business confidence hard in the read moreAfter surging by 15 points to 50 in the second quarter, the RMB/BER Business Confidence index (BCI) retreated to 43 in the third quarter. The unexpected shock of the looting, combined with a variety of other negatives, knocked business confidence hard in the third quarter. However, retail and wholesale trade confidence (which held up relatively well) cushioned the blow, while manufacturing confidence only fell by five points after the strong 21-point gain in the second quarter. Thanks to this resilience, the adverse developments in the third quarter are likely to only deliver a temporary setback to what otherwise remains a cyclical economic recovery. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, 2021Q3, press release Last updated: Sep 6 2021 8:59AM Having slipped from -9 to -13 index points during the second quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered some lost ground to -10 in the third quarter of 2021. The partial recovery can be ascribed to upticks in the household read moreHaving slipped from -9 to -13 index points during the second quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered some lost ground to -10 in the third quarter of 2021. The partial recovery can be ascribed to upticks in the household financial position and time-to-buy durable goods sub-indices. Fiscal support in the form of the reintroduction of the SRD grant and cash allowances for government employees to a large extent countered the adverse impacts of the civil unrest on consumer confidence. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations to the 35-49 age group from 15 July and subsequently to the 18-35 age group from 20 August probably also bolstered the confidence levels of these age groups. In all, the latest reading points to a level of resilience among consumers and by extension consumer spending during the third quarter of 2021. Research Note: The changing landscape of sustainable finance, Press release Last updated: Aug 19 2021 3:16PM The climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research read moreThe climate effects of rising carbon emissions are fast becoming too costly to ignore. More information and greater disclosure of climate and other environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks may help to mitigate some of its impacts. This BER Research Note explores how climate change might affect financial stability and how trends in sustainable finance could help respond to the associated threats and opportunities. Inflation Expectations Press 2021Q2 Last updated: Jul 22 2021 2:59PM Inflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts read moreInflation expectations reversed course in the second-quarter survey. After declining by 0.3 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter in the previous survey, average inflation expectations for 2021 and 2022 increased by 0.3% pts and 0.2% pts respectively in the most recent survey. Respondents, on average, expect inflation to edge up from 4.2% in 2021 to 4.4% in 2022 and 4.5% in 2023. Other services survey results 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 30 2021 8:24AM Confidence in the other services sector rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, from 30 in the first quarter to 34 in the second quarter. Despite the increase, the level of confidence remained low relative to the other sectors covered by the BER, bar the read moreConfidence in the other services sector rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, from 30 in the first quarter to 34 in the second quarter. Despite the increase, the level of confidence remained low relative to the other sectors covered by the BER, bar the building sector. The upswing in real estate activity and land freight transport gained further traction. In contrast, the improvement in activity in hotels, restaurants and business services was modest. The move to adjusted alert level 4 on 28 June (i.e. after the completion of the survey), which prohibited alcohol sales and limited restaurants to take-aways, is likely to set back the recovery of restaurants and lead to another round of permanent closures and job losses. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 28 2021 11:15AM After recovering further from -12 to -9 index points during the first quarter of 2021, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) backpedalled to -13 in the second quarter of 2021. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 24 2021 8:03AM The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose steadily between 2020Q3 and 2021Q1. This quarter, however, the index fell to 13, from 21 in 2021Q1. While respondents were somewhat disappointed with the level of activity, the extent to which confidence declined was read moreThe FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index rose steadily between 2020Q3 and 2021Q1. This quarter, however, the index fell to 13, from 21 in 2021Q1. While respondents were somewhat disappointed with the level of activity, the extent to which confidence declined was not entirely supported by the underlying indicators. Retail survey results 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 21 2021 10:12AM Business confidence surged across all trade sectors in the second quarter of 2021. Retailers, wholesalers and new vehicle traders were optimistic about improved trading conditions and higher sales volumes, which in turn boosted profitability and supported read moreBusiness confidence surged across all trade sectors in the second quarter of 2021. Retailers, wholesalers and new vehicle traders were optimistic about improved trading conditions and higher sales volumes, which in turn boosted profitability and supported confidence. While the improvement in sentiment is no doubt encouraging, uncertainties remain with SA now in the midst of a third wave of the pandemic. Renewed lockdown restrictions to curb the spread of the virus will certainly harm the sector. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 14 2021 8:21AM After slipping to 27 in 2021Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased notably to 39 in 2021Q2. Even though this is the highest level of the index since 2018Q1, at the current level, more than 60% of respondents are still dissatisfied with current read moreAfter slipping to 27 in 2021Q1, the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index, increased notably to 39 in 2021Q2. Even though this is the highest level of the index since 2018Q1, at the current level, more than 60% of respondents are still dissatisfied with current business conditions. Additionally, most of the improved sentiment came from two sectors namely: building material manufacturers and hardware retailers. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q2, press release Last updated: Jun 9 2021 10:00AM After declining by five points in the first quarter, the RMB/BER BCI jumped by 15 to 50 in the second quarter. Confidence rebounded especially sharply in the manufacturing, retail trade and motor trade sectors. By contrast, sentiment among building read moreAfter declining by five points in the first quarter, the RMB/BER BCI jumped by 15 to 50 in the second quarter. Confidence rebounded especially sharply in the manufacturing, retail trade and motor trade sectors. By contrast, sentiment among building contractors and the wholesale trade sector improved only marginally. While the improvement in sentiment is no doubt encouraging, uncertainties remain. Other services survey results 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 31 2021 8:24AM Although the first quarter’s further improvement of confidence and activity in the other services sector are welcome developments, bar property sales, these indicators remained at deeply depressed levels. The absence of international tourists, as well as read moreAlthough the first quarter’s further improvement of confidence and activity in the other services sector are welcome developments, bar property sales, these indicators remained at deeply depressed levels. The absence of international tourists, as well as COVID-related restrictions (such as the permitted number of people at gatherings) and anxiety, are hurting the hospitality, conferencing, exhibition and passenger transport industry in particular. A stronger, sustainable recovery in these industries is only likely to start in 2022 once vaccinations have been rolled out more widely and international travel resumes. Growth in freight transport, property management and business services is likely to be pedestrian until the recovery of the rest of the economy gains further traction Inflation Expectations 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 25 2021 12:19PM In the first quarter of 2021, average expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions are that headline consumer (CPI) inflation will be 3.9% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. It is rare in the survey’s history of 21 years that the read moreIn the first quarter of 2021, average expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions are that headline consumer (CPI) inflation will be 3.9% in 2021, 4.2% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023. It is rare in the survey’s history of 21 years that the expectations of business people match those of analysts and that the expectations of trade union representatives are below those of analysts. FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 24 2021 7:33AM After rising to 16 in 2021Q1, the FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index gained a further five points to register a level of 21 in 2021Q1. Higher activity this quarter boosted sentiment. Absa Manufacturing Survey 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 23 2021 11:27AM According to the Absa Manufacturing Survey , manufacturing business confidence declined to 25 index points in 2021Q1 after two consecutive increases had brought the index to 31 points in 2020Q4. At the current level, only a quarter of respondents were read moreAccording to the Absa Manufacturing Survey , manufacturing business confidence declined to 25 index points in 2021Q1 after two consecutive increases had brought the index to 31 points in 2020Q4. At the current level, only a quarter of respondents were satisfied with prevailing business conditions. Retail survey results 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 23 2021 10:03AM As expected, the trade sector experienced another tough start to the new year. Much of the performance of the sector still largely reflects a COVID-19 narrative. In the first quarter of 2021, retailer and new vehicle trader confidence declined, while read moreAs expected, the trade sector experienced another tough start to the new year. Much of the performance of the sector still largely reflects a COVID-19 narrative. In the first quarter of 2021, retailer and new vehicle trader confidence declined, while wholesaler confidence remained largely unchanged despite a tough business environment and low sales volumes. Significant risks lie ahead for the trade sector with the prospect of a third wave in SA looming amid a very slow vaccine rollout. Renewed lockdown restrictions to curb the spread of the virus will certainly harm the sector. FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 16 2021 9:18AM The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased by another 3 index points to a level of -9 in the first quarter of 2021. The recovery to -9 index points brings the CCI back in line with the reading recorded in March 2020, just before South Africa read moreThe FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) increased by another 3 index points to a level of -9 in the first quarter of 2021. The recovery to -9 index points brings the CCI back in line with the reading recorded in March 2020, just before South Africa entered its first strict nationwide lockdown. Although it is heartening that the CCI has now recovered most of its COVID-19-induced losses, consumer confidence in general remains depressed - the latest reading of -9 is still well below the average CCI reading of +2 since 1994. FNB/BER Building Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 15 2021 8:13AM The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index slipped by two points to 27 in 2021Q1. Activity was also broadly lower which contributed to the slight decline in sentiment. However, of particular concern is the activity levels in the non-residential building sector. read moreThe FNB/BER Building Confidence Index slipped by two points to 27 in 2021Q1. Activity was also broadly lower which contributed to the slight decline in sentiment. However, of particular concern is the activity levels in the non-residential building sector. RMB/BER Business Confidence Index 2021Q1, press release Last updated: Mar 10 2021 9:57AM The RMB/BER BCI declined from 40 to 35 in the first quarter of 2021. This means close to seven out of ten senior executives expressed dissatisfaction with prevailing business conditions, up from six previously. Retail saw the biggest decline, followed by read moreThe RMB/BER BCI declined from 40 to 35 in the first quarter of 2021. This means close to seven out of ten senior executives expressed dissatisfaction with prevailing business conditions, up from six previously. Retail saw the biggest decline, followed by manufacturing and new vehicle dealers. Sentiment among building contractors and wholesale traders deteriorated slightly. Such underlying dynamics are not reflective of a robust economic upswing. New report reflects on progress towards NDP objectives Last updated: Feb 18 2021 12:08PM In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as read moreIn collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as short and concise a format as possible. This report shows progress in South Africa’s development in some areas, though outcomes have fallen short of the NDP’s aspirations in several key indicators. Strong corrective action is needed to achieve the targets of the NDP. Success will require a collective effort by all of society – government, the private sector, churches and NGOs – to realise these goals. With the Annual NDP Assessment Report, the BER and its network of collaborators hope to contribute to the accelerated, and ultimately successful, implementation of the NDP as we traverse the journey to 2030.