The average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in read more

The average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in two years. Lower expectations were also evident over the entire forecast horizon (2023 to 2025) and mostly due to downward revisions by business people and trade unionists (by 0.6 percentage points (% pts) each for all three years). Analysts were the exception; they virtually retained their forecast of the second quarter. These revisions were done against the background where headline inflation dropped from 6.3% in May (as reported during the second quarter survey) to 4.7% in July (reported during the third quarter survey).

The average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in read more

The average headline CPI inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions seemingly peaked in the second quarter of 2023, as expectations declined significantly in the third quarter. It was the first drop in average 2023 expectations in two years. Lower expectations were also evident over the entire forecast horizon (2023 to 2025) and mostly due to downward revisions by business people and trade unionists,

In the second quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased yet again. They revised their forecast up by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) to 6.5% in 2023 and by 0.1% pt in both 2024 and 2025, to 5.9% read more

In the second quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions increased yet again. They revised their forecast up by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) to 6.5% in 2023 and by 0.1% pt in both 2024 and 2025, to 5.9% and 5.6% respectively. This upward revision happened as annual headline consumer inflation trended down from 7% in February to 6.3% in May. Among the three social groups, analysts foresee the lowest inflation rate over all three years, while business people expect the highest rate, with trade unions not far below.

In the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023 read more

In the first quarter of 2023, the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions for 2023 and 2024 increased by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) relative to the fourth quarter of 2022. They forecast inflation to average 6.3% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024. Thereafter, the respondents expect inflation to subside to 5.5% in 2025.