Economic information that works for you ForecastsEconomic ProspectsEconomic OutlookForecast methodMost recent forecastsUpdate BER Forecast Data Economic Prospects (Archive) Detailed quarterly forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 18-24 months. The focus is on current economic trends, both domestically and globally, as well as forecasts of the most important macroeconomic variables, including inflation, interest and exchange rates, GDP growth and household consumption. 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 4 Last updated: Oct 12 2018 9:46AM A short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy read moreA short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued consumer demand environment, weak private sector fixed investment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy. Add to that creeping concerns regarding global growth, and we are far less optimistic about the short-term outlook than in early-2018. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 4 Last updated: Oct 12 2018 9:47AM The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a read moreThe domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued consumer demand environment, weak private sector fixed investment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy. Add to that creeping concerns regarding global growth, and we are far less optimistic about the short-term outlook than in early-2018. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 4 (Download sample) Last updated: Oct 12 2018 9:48AM The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a read moreThe domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued consumer demand environment, weak private sector fixed investment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy. Add to that creeping concerns regarding global growth, and we are far less optimistic about the short-term outlook than in early-2018. Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 3 Last updated: Jul 6 2018 7:30AM The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 3 Last updated: Jul 6 2018 7:30AM The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 3 (Download sample) Last updated: Jul 6 2018 7:29AM The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast. Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 2 Last updated: Apr 13 2018 10:22AM A short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take read moreA short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since the ANC elective conference in December 2017 have led to increased optimism that overall economic activity might surprise on the upside going forward. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 2 Last updated: Apr 13 2018 10:22AM Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since read moreGlobal growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since the ANC elective conference in December 2017 have led to increased optimism that overall economic activity might surprise on the upside going forward. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 2 (Download sample) Last updated: Apr 13 2018 10:21AM Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since read moreGlobal growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since the ANC elective conference in December 2017 have led to increased optimism that overall economic activity might surprise on the upside going forward. Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 1 Last updated: Mar 1 2018 6:11PM For the most part, recent developments provide a springboard to suggest that – after a long period of disappointment – SA’s economic trajectory is pointing upward. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 1 (Download sample) Last updated: Mar 1 2018 6:09PM For the most part, recent developments provide a springboard to suggest that – after a long period of disappointment – SA’s economic trajectory is pointing upward. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 1 Last updated: Jan 25 2018 1:53PM The positive impact of the improved domestic political environment and the broad-based upturn in the global economy has improved the prospects for GDP growth. Despite these positive developments, a number of major hurdles remain for the SA economy. However, read moreThe positive impact of the improved domestic political environment and the broad-based upturn in the global economy has improved the prospects for GDP growth. Despite these positive developments, a number of major hurdles remain for the SA economy. However, relative to our October forecast, the risks to the outlook are more evenly balanced. There is also greater potential for an upside surprise.
Economic Prospects (Archive) Detailed quarterly forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 18-24 months. The focus is on current economic trends, both domestically and globally, as well as forecasts of the most important macroeconomic variables, including inflation, interest and exchange rates, GDP growth and household consumption. 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 4 Last updated: Oct 12 2018 9:46AM A short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy read moreA short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued consumer demand environment, weak private sector fixed investment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy. Add to that creeping concerns regarding global growth, and we are far less optimistic about the short-term outlook than in early-2018. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 4 Last updated: Oct 12 2018 9:47AM The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a read moreThe domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued consumer demand environment, weak private sector fixed investment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy. Add to that creeping concerns regarding global growth, and we are far less optimistic about the short-term outlook than in early-2018. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 4 (Download sample) Last updated: Oct 12 2018 9:48AM The domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a read moreThe domestic economy entered a technical recession in 2018Q2. The excitement that gripped the country in 2018Q1 is now firmly in the rear-view mirror. The short-run outlook for the domestic economy is clouded by low levels of private sector confidence, a subdued consumer demand environment, weak private sector fixed investment, and constrained fiscal and monetary policy. Add to that creeping concerns regarding global growth, and we are far less optimistic about the short-term outlook than in early-2018. Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 3 Last updated: Jul 6 2018 7:30AM The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 3 Last updated: Jul 6 2018 7:30AM The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 3 (Download sample) Last updated: Jul 6 2018 7:29AM The GDP contraction in 2018Q1 and likely modest recovery in Q2 has forced a sizeable downward adjustment to our 2018 real GDP growth forecast. Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 2 Last updated: Apr 13 2018 10:22AM A short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take read moreA short summary of the BER’s latest macroeconomic forecast. Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since the ANC elective conference in December 2017 have led to increased optimism that overall economic activity might surprise on the upside going forward. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 2 Last updated: Apr 13 2018 10:22AM Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since read moreGlobal growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since the ANC elective conference in December 2017 have led to increased optimism that overall economic activity might surprise on the upside going forward. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 2 (Download sample) Last updated: Apr 13 2018 10:21AM Global growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since read moreGlobal growth moved from strength to strength in 2017, with activity picking up in most country groupings. However, amidst political infighting and policy uncertainty SA was in no position to take advantage of the upturn in global growth. Developments since the ANC elective conference in December 2017 have led to increased optimism that overall economic activity might surprise on the upside going forward. Economic Prospects (Short Summary), 2018 - Quarter 1 Last updated: Mar 1 2018 6:11PM For the most part, recent developments provide a springboard to suggest that – after a long period of disappointment – SA’s economic trajectory is pointing upward. Economic Prospects, 2018 - Quarter 1 (Download sample) Last updated: Mar 1 2018 6:09PM For the most part, recent developments provide a springboard to suggest that – after a long period of disappointment – SA’s economic trajectory is pointing upward. Economic Prospects, (Executive Summary) 2018 - Quarter 1 Last updated: Jan 25 2018 1:53PM The positive impact of the improved domestic political environment and the broad-based upturn in the global economy has improved the prospects for GDP growth. Despite these positive developments, a number of major hurdles remain for the SA economy. However, read moreThe positive impact of the improved domestic political environment and the broad-based upturn in the global economy has improved the prospects for GDP growth. Despite these positive developments, a number of major hurdles remain for the SA economy. However, relative to our October forecast, the risks to the outlook are more evenly balanced. There is also greater potential for an upside surprise.