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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 22.97/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 22.25/litre  CPI April '23 = 6.8% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing May '23 = 8.6%  GDP growth Q4 = 1.3% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 11.75%  Unemployment rate Q1 = 32.9%  Retail sales March '23 = -1.6% y-o-y  Manufacturing output March '23 = -1.1% y-o-y 
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(Archive)

SA skirts recession, but near-term outlook subdued amid downside risks

Date Uploaded: Jun 6 2023 7:00PM

The stop-start nature of SA real GDP outcomes since the 2020 crash continued in early-2023, with real GDP increasing by 0.4% q-o-q after an (upwardly) revised 1.1% quarterly decline in 2022Q4.


A unanimous, hawkish 50bps hike

Date Uploaded: May 25 2023 9:15PM

In line with our (revised) forecast and the consensus view, the SARB MPC increased the repo policy interest rate by another 50bps, to 8.25%.


Multiparty coalitions in SA: Friend or Foe?

Date Uploaded: May 16 2023 3:00PM

As part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus read more
As part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus that although the ANC was likely to fall below 50% nationally, this was not inevitable. The second major takeaway was that the post-election political environment is likely to be even more volatile than in recent years.


MPC delivers 50bps, with monetary policy no longer accommodative

Date Uploaded: Mar 30 2023 6:45PM

In a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the read more
In a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the policy rate as the peak in the cycle.


Real GDP largely reversed Q3 jump in 2022Q4

Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2023 4:45PM

Real GDP performed notably worse than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, declining by 1.3% q-o-q.


Special survey: Adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit

Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 3:45PM

To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their read more
To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit to buy something expensive. This comment summarises the results in PowerPoint format and also includes a link to a recording of the presentation.


Large Eskom support, some relief for households and firms

Date Uploaded: Feb 22 2023 7:00PM

As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt read more
As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt relief over the next three fiscal years, government’s borrowing requirement, overall debt and interest payments are now all projected to be higher than outlined in the October MTBPS.


SARB mandate change should be roundly dismissed

Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 11:00AM

In this comment, we outline why it is important to push back firmly against any efforts to undermine the SARB and its contribution to domestic macroeconomic stability.


In a close call, MPC pivots to a 25bps hike

Date Uploaded: Jan 26 2023 6:30PM

With a sharp deterioration in domestic real GDP growth forecasts and mixed prospects for inflation, the SARB MPC scaled down the pace of policy rate hikes to 25bps.


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