Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper Series BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 GDP locked up as historic decline looms Last updated: Mar 25 2020 3:22PM We currently see SA real GDP declining by a range of 2 to 4% in 2020, before recovering to post growth of 2.5 to 3% during 2021. MPC joins coordinated global push to lower policy rates with an aggressive (and much needed) cut Last updated: Mar 19 2020 7:48PM In a responsive move that recognises the dramatic recent deterioration in the global and SA GDP outlook, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100bps to 5.25%. The Corona Crisis: A strong monetary policy response is required Last updated: Mar 18 2020 12:52PM While the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. read moreWhile the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. 2020Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 13 2020 9:36AM The survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights read moreThe survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights the further downside risks the global pandemic hold for an already ailing economy. The hit to the global economy increases daily and local disruptions have yet to strike fully. GDP contracts again in Q4, making it three out of four for 2019 Last updated: Mar 3 2020 1:59PM Real GDP suffered a second consecutive quarter of decline in 2019Q4, pushing the SA economy into another technical recession. Credibility on the line as (non-negotiated) wage bill reductions fail to stabilise debt levels Last updated: Feb 26 2020 10:46PM The 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in read moreThe 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in the MTBPS. MPC belatedly reduces the repo rate as inflation forecast improves significantly Last updated: Jan 16 2020 6:09PM In a unanimous decision and against expectations, the MPC reduced the repo policy rate by 25bps to 6.25%.
BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 GDP locked up as historic decline looms Last updated: Mar 25 2020 3:22PM We currently see SA real GDP declining by a range of 2 to 4% in 2020, before recovering to post growth of 2.5 to 3% during 2021. MPC joins coordinated global push to lower policy rates with an aggressive (and much needed) cut Last updated: Mar 19 2020 7:48PM In a responsive move that recognises the dramatic recent deterioration in the global and SA GDP outlook, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100bps to 5.25%. The Corona Crisis: A strong monetary policy response is required Last updated: Mar 18 2020 12:52PM While the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. read moreWhile the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. 2020Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 13 2020 9:36AM The survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights read moreThe survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights the further downside risks the global pandemic hold for an already ailing economy. The hit to the global economy increases daily and local disruptions have yet to strike fully. GDP contracts again in Q4, making it three out of four for 2019 Last updated: Mar 3 2020 1:59PM Real GDP suffered a second consecutive quarter of decline in 2019Q4, pushing the SA economy into another technical recession. Credibility on the line as (non-negotiated) wage bill reductions fail to stabilise debt levels Last updated: Feb 26 2020 10:46PM The 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in read moreThe 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in the MTBPS. MPC belatedly reduces the repo rate as inflation forecast improves significantly Last updated: Jan 16 2020 6:09PM In a unanimous decision and against expectations, the MPC reduced the repo policy rate by 25bps to 6.25%.