Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper Series BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 MPC on hold for first time in 2020 Last updated: Sep 17 2020 5:43PM After reducing the repo policy rate at each of the previous five interest rate meetings during 2020, the MPC kept the rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% at the latest meeting. 2020Q3 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Sep 10 2020 12:22PM The survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller read moreThe survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller year-on-year contraction in GDP during Q3. Historic GDP decline in Q2 as lockdowns hurt Last updated: Sep 8 2020 4:16PM Real GDP plunged by a record 51% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q2. Compared with 2019Q2, real GDP declined by 17.2%, while the level of GDP was 8.7% lower in the first half of 2020 than in the corresponding period of 2019. read moreReal GDP plunged by a record 51% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q2. Compared with 2019Q2, real GDP declined by 17.2%, while the level of GDP was 8.7% lower in the first half of 2020 than in the corresponding period of 2019. MPC cuts by 25bps in a 3-2 vote split as the policy rate trough closes in Last updated: Jul 23 2020 5:49PM The MPC cut the repo rate by another 25bps to 3.50%, adding to the 275bps worth of easing already announced in 2020. Q1 contraction highlights pre-COVID weakness Last updated: Jun 30 2020 3:20PM Real GDP suffered a third consecutive quarter of decline in 2020Q1, prolonging the second half of 2019 recession. Prolonged fiscal slippage collides with COVID-19 crisis, causing severe damage to public finances Last updated: Jun 25 2020 8:13AM To a large extent, the supplementary COVID-19 budget was another exercise in kicking the fiscal can down the road. 2020Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Jun 10 2020 1:27PM The lockdown measures that were taken to address the health emergency posed by COVID-19 severely impacted on already-weak business conditions. Activity collapse across sectors would agree with a severe contraction in GDP in the second quarter. read moreThe lockdown measures that were taken to address the health emergency posed by COVID-19 severely impacted on already-weak business conditions. Activity collapse across sectors would agree with a severe contraction in GDP in the second quarter. MPC cuts again, but vote split suggests bottom of rate cycle close Last updated: May 21 2020 5:33PM For the fourth time in 2020, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate, this time by 50bps. Q&A on a phased approach to economic recovery Last updated: Apr 24 2020 7:48AM President Cyril Ramaphosa outlined the first steps towards slowly allowing selected (and risk-adjusted) economic activity to resume once the national lockdown ends on 30 April. A fiscal lifeline as survey reveals the virus cost Last updated: Apr 22 2020 7:40AM President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a desperately needed fiscal package to support the economy during the COVID-19 crisis. MPC cuts aggressively again after extraordinary meeting Last updated: Apr 14 2020 3:02PM In a much needed and unanimous move, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100 basis points to 4.25% after an emergency interest rate meeting this weekend. GDP locked up as historic decline looms Last updated: Mar 25 2020 3:22PM We currently see SA real GDP declining by a range of 2 to 4% in 2020, before recovering to post growth of 2.5 to 3% during 2021. MPC joins coordinated global push to lower policy rates with an aggressive (and much needed) cut Last updated: Mar 19 2020 7:48PM In a responsive move that recognises the dramatic recent deterioration in the global and SA GDP outlook, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100bps to 5.25%. The Corona Crisis: A strong monetary policy response is required Last updated: Mar 18 2020 12:52PM While the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. read moreWhile the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. 2020Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 13 2020 9:36AM The survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights read moreThe survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights the further downside risks the global pandemic hold for an already ailing economy. The hit to the global economy increases daily and local disruptions have yet to strike fully. GDP contracts again in Q4, making it three out of four for 2019 Last updated: Mar 3 2020 1:59PM Real GDP suffered a second consecutive quarter of decline in 2019Q4, pushing the SA economy into another technical recession. Credibility on the line as (non-negotiated) wage bill reductions fail to stabilise debt levels Last updated: Feb 26 2020 10:46PM The 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in read moreThe 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in the MTBPS. MPC belatedly reduces the repo rate as inflation forecast improves significantly Last updated: Jan 16 2020 6:09PM In a unanimous decision and against expectations, the MPC reduced the repo policy rate by 25bps to 6.25%.
BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 MPC on hold for first time in 2020 Last updated: Sep 17 2020 5:43PM After reducing the repo policy rate at each of the previous five interest rate meetings during 2020, the MPC kept the rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% at the latest meeting. 2020Q3 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Sep 10 2020 12:22PM The survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller read moreThe survey indicators corroborate that the SA economy is likely to rebound noticeably in Q3 from the severe hit to activity in Q2 in the wake of the health-emergency-induced lockdown restrictions. The activity indicators are consistent with a smaller year-on-year contraction in GDP during Q3. Historic GDP decline in Q2 as lockdowns hurt Last updated: Sep 8 2020 4:16PM Real GDP plunged by a record 51% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q2. Compared with 2019Q2, real GDP declined by 17.2%, while the level of GDP was 8.7% lower in the first half of 2020 than in the corresponding period of 2019. read moreReal GDP plunged by a record 51% q-o-q (annualised) in 2020Q2. Compared with 2019Q2, real GDP declined by 17.2%, while the level of GDP was 8.7% lower in the first half of 2020 than in the corresponding period of 2019. MPC cuts by 25bps in a 3-2 vote split as the policy rate trough closes in Last updated: Jul 23 2020 5:49PM The MPC cut the repo rate by another 25bps to 3.50%, adding to the 275bps worth of easing already announced in 2020. Q1 contraction highlights pre-COVID weakness Last updated: Jun 30 2020 3:20PM Real GDP suffered a third consecutive quarter of decline in 2020Q1, prolonging the second half of 2019 recession. Prolonged fiscal slippage collides with COVID-19 crisis, causing severe damage to public finances Last updated: Jun 25 2020 8:13AM To a large extent, the supplementary COVID-19 budget was another exercise in kicking the fiscal can down the road. 2020Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Jun 10 2020 1:27PM The lockdown measures that were taken to address the health emergency posed by COVID-19 severely impacted on already-weak business conditions. Activity collapse across sectors would agree with a severe contraction in GDP in the second quarter. read moreThe lockdown measures that were taken to address the health emergency posed by COVID-19 severely impacted on already-weak business conditions. Activity collapse across sectors would agree with a severe contraction in GDP in the second quarter. MPC cuts again, but vote split suggests bottom of rate cycle close Last updated: May 21 2020 5:33PM For the fourth time in 2020, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate, this time by 50bps. Q&A on a phased approach to economic recovery Last updated: Apr 24 2020 7:48AM President Cyril Ramaphosa outlined the first steps towards slowly allowing selected (and risk-adjusted) economic activity to resume once the national lockdown ends on 30 April. A fiscal lifeline as survey reveals the virus cost Last updated: Apr 22 2020 7:40AM President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a desperately needed fiscal package to support the economy during the COVID-19 crisis. MPC cuts aggressively again after extraordinary meeting Last updated: Apr 14 2020 3:02PM In a much needed and unanimous move, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100 basis points to 4.25% after an emergency interest rate meeting this weekend. GDP locked up as historic decline looms Last updated: Mar 25 2020 3:22PM We currently see SA real GDP declining by a range of 2 to 4% in 2020, before recovering to post growth of 2.5 to 3% during 2021. MPC joins coordinated global push to lower policy rates with an aggressive (and much needed) cut Last updated: Mar 19 2020 7:48PM In a responsive move that recognises the dramatic recent deterioration in the global and SA GDP outlook, the MPC reduced the repo policy interest rate by 100bps to 5.25%. The Corona Crisis: A strong monetary policy response is required Last updated: Mar 18 2020 12:52PM While the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. read moreWhile the growth-enhancing impact of monetary policy stimulus may be limited until the supply shocks related to the Covid-19 outbreak fades, it is likely to be key in tempering the wave of bankruptcies that can ensue over the short term. 2020Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 13 2020 9:36AM The survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights read moreThe survey results are consistent with a further year-on-year contraction in GDP during the first half of 2020. The fact that the current survey only captured the initial impacts of global demand and supply disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak highlights the further downside risks the global pandemic hold for an already ailing economy. The hit to the global economy increases daily and local disruptions have yet to strike fully. GDP contracts again in Q4, making it three out of four for 2019 Last updated: Mar 3 2020 1:59PM Real GDP suffered a second consecutive quarter of decline in 2019Q4, pushing the SA economy into another technical recession. Credibility on the line as (non-negotiated) wage bill reductions fail to stabilise debt levels Last updated: Feb 26 2020 10:46PM The 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in read moreThe 2020 budget took some important steps to cap the rise in government debt. However, the stark reality is that even if these proposals are fully implemented, the debt profile outlined in the budget is even (slightly) worse than the dire outlook presented in the MTBPS. MPC belatedly reduces the repo rate as inflation forecast improves significantly Last updated: Jan 16 2020 6:09PM In a unanimous decision and against expectations, the MPC reduced the repo policy rate by 25bps to 6.25%.