Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report (Archive) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 Back-to-back hikes of 75bps Date Uploaded: Sep 22 2022 6:15PM As widely expected, the SARB MPC announced a 75bps increase in the policy interest rate to 6.25%. The policy rate is now within striking distance of the 6.5% level at the end of 2019 before COVID-19 struck. At this stage, we expect a (final) 50bps increase in read moreAs widely expected, the SARB MPC announced a 75bps increase in the policy interest rate to 6.25%. The policy rate is now within striking distance of the 6.5% level at the end of 2019 before COVID-19 struck. At this stage, we expect a (final) 50bps increase in November. GDP contracts in line with expectations in 2022Q2 Date Uploaded: Sep 6 2022 4:45PM Real GDP contracted by 0.7% q-o-q in 2022Q2, from a downwardly revised but still robust 1.7% expansion in 2022Q1. Along with gathering global storm clouds, relative to our expectation, the somewhat softer growth in the first half of the year places downside read moreReal GDP contracted by 0.7% q-o-q in 2022Q2, from a downwardly revised but still robust 1.7% expansion in 2022Q1. Along with gathering global storm clouds, relative to our expectation, the somewhat softer growth in the first half of the year places downside risk to our July 2022 real GDP growth forecast of 2.3%. Despite this, we now expect the SARB to hike the repo rate by 75bps in September. An aggressive hike with a hawkish statement Date Uploaded: Jul 21 2022 6:15PM In a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle. read moreIn a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle. Upside surprise sees real GDP back to pre-pandemic level in Q1; shocks will hurt Q2 Date Uploaded: Jun 7 2022 9:15PM Real GDP growth handsomely outpaced expectations in 2022Q1. Despite a likely poor Q2 amid numerous shocks, this provides some comfort that growth could surpass 2% in 2022. SARB ups the ante with a 50bps hike Date Uploaded: May 19 2022 6:00PM The SARB’s MPC announced a 50bps increase in the repo rate, and again flagged upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook. A hawkish hike of 25bps that could easily have swung to 50bps Date Uploaded: Mar 25 2022 7:15AM The SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish. read moreThe SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish. Stress testing inflation Date Uploaded: Mar 10 2022 1:15PM In this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation. Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected. read moreIn this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation. Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected. Incomplete Q4 GDP recovery, Russia invasion clouds outlook Date Uploaded: Mar 8 2022 6:45PM After declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to read moreAfter declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to the outlook. Budget 2022: Short-term cheer but major fiscal hurdles remain Date Uploaded: Feb 24 2022 10:15PM At first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget read moreAt first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget statement to the next (this predates COVID-19), it is a challenge to be overly confident that the fiscal numbers will turn out as presented in the latest update. There are downside risks on both the revenue and expenditure side, in our view. For the most part, these are beyond 2022. Another 25bps repo rate increase, with more in the offing Date Uploaded: Jan 27 2022 5:30PM As widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and read moreAs widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and given the other upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook, we have adjusted the interest rate view for another 75bps (three hikes of 25bps each in March, July and September) in the rest of 2022. We have repo rate lift-off. Just Date Uploaded: Jan 6 2022 8:15AM After the repo policy interest rate was kept unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% since July 2020, the SARB kicked off a process of monetary policy normalisation with a 25bps increase.
(Archive) 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 Back-to-back hikes of 75bps Date Uploaded: Sep 22 2022 6:15PM As widely expected, the SARB MPC announced a 75bps increase in the policy interest rate to 6.25%. The policy rate is now within striking distance of the 6.5% level at the end of 2019 before COVID-19 struck. At this stage, we expect a (final) 50bps increase in read moreAs widely expected, the SARB MPC announced a 75bps increase in the policy interest rate to 6.25%. The policy rate is now within striking distance of the 6.5% level at the end of 2019 before COVID-19 struck. At this stage, we expect a (final) 50bps increase in November. GDP contracts in line with expectations in 2022Q2 Date Uploaded: Sep 6 2022 4:45PM Real GDP contracted by 0.7% q-o-q in 2022Q2, from a downwardly revised but still robust 1.7% expansion in 2022Q1. Along with gathering global storm clouds, relative to our expectation, the somewhat softer growth in the first half of the year places downside read moreReal GDP contracted by 0.7% q-o-q in 2022Q2, from a downwardly revised but still robust 1.7% expansion in 2022Q1. Along with gathering global storm clouds, relative to our expectation, the somewhat softer growth in the first half of the year places downside risk to our July 2022 real GDP growth forecast of 2.3%. Despite this, we now expect the SARB to hike the repo rate by 75bps in September. An aggressive hike with a hawkish statement Date Uploaded: Jul 21 2022 6:15PM In a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle. read moreIn a split decision, and against the general expectation, the SARB MPC hiked the policy interest rate by an aggressive 75bps at its July meeting. Additional hikes totalling 100bps are expected in the cycle. Upside surprise sees real GDP back to pre-pandemic level in Q1; shocks will hurt Q2 Date Uploaded: Jun 7 2022 9:15PM Real GDP growth handsomely outpaced expectations in 2022Q1. Despite a likely poor Q2 amid numerous shocks, this provides some comfort that growth could surpass 2% in 2022. SARB ups the ante with a 50bps hike Date Uploaded: May 19 2022 6:00PM The SARB’s MPC announced a 50bps increase in the repo rate, and again flagged upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook. A hawkish hike of 25bps that could easily have swung to 50bps Date Uploaded: Mar 25 2022 7:15AM The SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish. read moreThe SARB MPC announced a 25bps increase in the repo policy interest rate following the March monetary policy meeting. Although a hike of 25bps was widely expected, the voting behaviour of the MPC turned decidedly more hawkish. Stress testing inflation Date Uploaded: Mar 10 2022 1:15PM In this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation. Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected. read moreIn this note, we present the outcomes of a simplified exercise that considers the direct impact of different oil price scenarios on measured inflation. Please ignore the version of this note sent earlier today. It has been corrected. Incomplete Q4 GDP recovery, Russia invasion clouds outlook Date Uploaded: Mar 8 2022 6:45PM After declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to read moreAfter declining by a weaker-than-initially estimated 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, real GDP increased by 1.2% in 2021Q4. While incoming data indicates that local business activity picked up further in early 2022, the Russia-Ukraine crisis poses notable downside risks to the outlook. Budget 2022: Short-term cheer but major fiscal hurdles remain Date Uploaded: Feb 24 2022 10:15PM At first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget read moreAt first glance, the 2022 budget outlined an improved fiscal trajectory relative to the 2021 budget/MTBPS. This should be welcomed by the credit rating agencies. Still, given how significantly the fiscal numbers have tended to diverge from one budget statement to the next (this predates COVID-19), it is a challenge to be overly confident that the fiscal numbers will turn out as presented in the latest update. There are downside risks on both the revenue and expenditure side, in our view. For the most part, these are beyond 2022. Another 25bps repo rate increase, with more in the offing Date Uploaded: Jan 27 2022 5:30PM As widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and read moreAs widely expected, the SARB MPC kicked off the year with another 25bps repo rate hike. This takes the policy rate to 4% from 3.5% before the November increase. With global policy and long-term interest rates on the rise, and set to increase further, and given the other upside risks to the domestic inflation outlook, we have adjusted the interest rate view for another 75bps (three hikes of 25bps each in March, July and September) in the rest of 2022. We have repo rate lift-off. Just Date Uploaded: Jan 6 2022 8:15AM After the repo policy interest rate was kept unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5% since July 2020, the SARB kicked off a process of monetary policy normalisation with a 25bps increase.