Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 2021Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Jun 11 2021 6:50AM The survey results support further upward adjustment to the GDP growth outlook in 2021, as illustrated in this presentation-style summary of the results. Resilience through the second wave Last updated: Jun 8 2021 4:16PM Following the better-than-expected 2021Q1 GDP data, and assuming a light government touch on COVID-19 regulations, real GDP growth in 2021 could be closer to 4.5% than the 3.9% projected in April. MPC unanimously holds policy rate at 3.5%, but flags upside price risks Last updated: May 20 2021 5:54PM While the MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate at 3.5% was in line with the previous (March) interest rate meeting, the tone of the statement was somewhat more hawkish. A (slight) hawkish tilt as MPC votes 5-0 for unchanged repo rate Last updated: Mar 25 2021 5:59PM For the fourth meeting in a row, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%. 2012Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 11 2021 4:29PM The survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data read moreThe survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data electronically (as part of the RMB/BER BCI data file available for download). Even as Q4 sustains the recovery, a depression-like GDP decline in 2020 Last updated: Mar 9 2021 3:15PM Real GDP moderated sharply to a better-than-expected 6.3% q-o-q (annualised) during 2020Q4, from the blockbuster 67.3% in 2020Q3. Treasury sticks to their guns as revenue windfall provides a welcome reprieve Last updated: Feb 25 2021 6:28AM Notwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for. read moreNotwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for. New report reflects on progress towards NDP objectives. Last updated: Feb 18 2021 12:13PM In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as read moreIn collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as short and concise a format as possible. This report shows progress in South Africa’s development in some areas, though outcomes have fallen short of the NDP’s aspirations in several key indicators. Strong corrective action is needed to achieve the targets of the NDP. Success will require a collective effort by all of society – government, the private sector, churches and NGOs – to realise these goals. With the Annual NDP Assessment Report, the BER and its network of collaborators hope to contribute to the accelerated, and ultimately successful, implementation of the NDP as we traverse the journey to 2030. Same again as policy rate on hold in a 3-2 vote split Last updated: Jan 21 2021 6:14PM For the third meeting in a row, the SARB MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.
BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 2021Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Jun 11 2021 6:50AM The survey results support further upward adjustment to the GDP growth outlook in 2021, as illustrated in this presentation-style summary of the results. Resilience through the second wave Last updated: Jun 8 2021 4:16PM Following the better-than-expected 2021Q1 GDP data, and assuming a light government touch on COVID-19 regulations, real GDP growth in 2021 could be closer to 4.5% than the 3.9% projected in April. MPC unanimously holds policy rate at 3.5%, but flags upside price risks Last updated: May 20 2021 5:54PM While the MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate at 3.5% was in line with the previous (March) interest rate meeting, the tone of the statement was somewhat more hawkish. A (slight) hawkish tilt as MPC votes 5-0 for unchanged repo rate Last updated: Mar 25 2021 5:59PM For the fourth meeting in a row, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%. 2012Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 11 2021 4:29PM The survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data read moreThe survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data electronically (as part of the RMB/BER BCI data file available for download). Even as Q4 sustains the recovery, a depression-like GDP decline in 2020 Last updated: Mar 9 2021 3:15PM Real GDP moderated sharply to a better-than-expected 6.3% q-o-q (annualised) during 2020Q4, from the blockbuster 67.3% in 2020Q3. Treasury sticks to their guns as revenue windfall provides a welcome reprieve Last updated: Feb 25 2021 6:28AM Notwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for. read moreNotwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for. New report reflects on progress towards NDP objectives. Last updated: Feb 18 2021 12:13PM In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as read moreIn collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as short and concise a format as possible. This report shows progress in South Africa’s development in some areas, though outcomes have fallen short of the NDP’s aspirations in several key indicators. Strong corrective action is needed to achieve the targets of the NDP. Success will require a collective effort by all of society – government, the private sector, churches and NGOs – to realise these goals. With the Annual NDP Assessment Report, the BER and its network of collaborators hope to contribute to the accelerated, and ultimately successful, implementation of the NDP as we traverse the journey to 2030. Same again as policy rate on hold in a 3-2 vote split Last updated: Jan 21 2021 6:14PM For the third meeting in a row, the SARB MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.