Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper SeriesNDP Assessment Report (Archive) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 Real GDP contracts in Q3 as domestic demand falters Date Uploaded: Dec 6 2023 8:15AM Repeating a pattern seen in the data in recent quarters, SA real GDP contracted on a quarterly basis in Q3 following two quarters of growth. Real GDP declined by 0.2% q-o-q in Q3 after a downwardly revised increase of 0.5% in 2023Q2. The Q3 contraction was read moreRepeating a pattern seen in the data in recent quarters, SA real GDP contracted on a quarterly basis in Q3 following two quarters of growth. Real GDP declined by 0.2% q-o-q in Q3 after a downwardly revised increase of 0.5% in 2023Q2. The Q3 contraction was worse than the consensus forecast. While we warned that we should see a significant slowdown in GDP momentum growth, the print also disappointed relative to our expectations. MPC keeps repo rate restrictive, looks to anchor inflation expectations Date Uploaded: Nov 23 2023 9:00PM The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%. Following a tight 3-2 vote split in September, this decision was unanimous and reflects a dovish tilt within the MPC. read moreThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%. Following a tight 3-2 vote split in September, this decision was unanimous and reflects a dovish tilt within the MPC. Tough MTBPS outlines trade-offs needed as risks materialise Date Uploaded: Nov 1 2023 6:00PM The 2023 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) outlines the tough decisions needed to strike a balance between fiscal sustainability and supporting “deeper” economic reforms. Targeted spending reductions, a proposed reconfiguration of government, the read moreThe 2023 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) outlines the tough decisions needed to strike a balance between fiscal sustainability and supporting “deeper” economic reforms. Targeted spending reductions, a proposed reconfiguration of government, the introduction of additional tax measures and new fiscal anchors are on the table in order to narrow the deficit and stabilise the debt trajectory. MPC holds repo rate steady, stresses vigilance amid inflation risks Date Uploaded: Sep 21 2023 7:00PM The SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% in a split vote. We continue to expect an unchanged policy rate through 2024Q1, with the first cut of 25bps pencilled in for May 2024. Gangbuster green capex lifts growth in Q2 as imports remain firm Date Uploaded: Sep 5 2023 5:00PM At 0.6% q-o-q in 2023Q2, real GDP growth beat our above-consensus expectation of 0.5%. Mechanically adjusting the GDP outlook by keeping the same q-o-q momentum for the rest of the year as we had in July lifts the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, read moreAt 0.6% q-o-q in 2023Q2, real GDP growth beat our above-consensus expectation of 0.5%. Mechanically adjusting the GDP outlook by keeping the same q-o-q momentum for the rest of the year as we had in July lifts the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, from 0.4% projected in July. On-hold policy rate signals end of tightening cycle Date Uploaded: Jul 20 2023 5:45PM After increasing the policy interest (repo) rate at every monetary policy meeting since November 2021, with cumulative hikes of 475bps, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged following the latest meeting. We now expect an extended pause, followed by the read moreAfter increasing the policy interest (repo) rate at every monetary policy meeting since November 2021, with cumulative hikes of 475bps, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged following the latest meeting. We now expect an extended pause, followed by the start of a rate-cutting cycle in May 2024. Unpacking recent load-shedding and electricity trends Date Uploaded: Jul 11 2023 9:00AM Eskom’s winter outlook warned about the risk that South Africans could experience up to stage 8 load-shedding if cold temperatures caused demand to spike or if there were plant breakdowns equivalent to more than 15 GW of capacity. The risk of higher stages of read moreEskom’s winter outlook warned about the risk that South Africans could experience up to stage 8 load-shedding if cold temperatures caused demand to spike or if there were plant breakdowns equivalent to more than 15 GW of capacity. The risk of higher stages of load-shedding was heightened by the unavailability of key generation units at the Kusile, Medupi and Koeberg power stations during the winter months. However, in stark contrast to the dire warnings, there was a notably lower incidence of load-shedding in June relative to the preceding months. In this comment, we consider what drove this repriev SA skirts recession, but near-term outlook subdued amid downside risks Date Uploaded: Jun 6 2023 7:00PM The stop-start nature of SA real GDP outcomes since the 2020 crash continued in early-2023, with real GDP increasing by 0.4% q-o-q after an (upwardly) revised 1.1% quarterly decline in 2022Q4. A unanimous, hawkish 50bps hike Date Uploaded: May 25 2023 9:15PM In line with our (revised) forecast and the consensus view, the SARB MPC increased the repo policy interest rate by another 50bps, to 8.25%. Multiparty coalitions in SA: Friend or Foe? Date Uploaded: May 16 2023 3:00PM As part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus read moreAs part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus that although the ANC was likely to fall below 50% nationally, this was not inevitable. The second major takeaway was that the post-election political environment is likely to be even more volatile than in recent years. MPC delivers 50bps, with monetary policy no longer accommodative Date Uploaded: Mar 30 2023 6:45PM In a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the read moreIn a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the policy rate as the peak in the cycle. Real GDP largely reversed Q3 jump in 2022Q4 Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2023 4:45PM Real GDP performed notably worse than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, declining by 1.3% q-o-q. Special survey: Adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 3:45PM To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their read moreTo better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit to buy something expensive. This comment summarises the results in PowerPoint format and also includes a link to a recording of the presentation. Large Eskom support, some relief for households and firms Date Uploaded: Feb 22 2023 7:00PM As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt read moreAs widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt relief over the next three fiscal years, government’s borrowing requirement, overall debt and interest payments are now all projected to be higher than outlined in the October MTBPS. SARB mandate change should be roundly dismissed Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 11:00AM In this comment, we outline why it is important to push back firmly against any efforts to undermine the SARB and its contribution to domestic macroeconomic stability. In a close call, MPC pivots to a 25bps hike Date Uploaded: Jan 26 2023 6:30PM With a sharp deterioration in domestic real GDP growth forecasts and mixed prospects for inflation, the SARB MPC scaled down the pace of policy rate hikes to 25bps.
(Archive) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 Real GDP contracts in Q3 as domestic demand falters Date Uploaded: Dec 6 2023 8:15AM Repeating a pattern seen in the data in recent quarters, SA real GDP contracted on a quarterly basis in Q3 following two quarters of growth. Real GDP declined by 0.2% q-o-q in Q3 after a downwardly revised increase of 0.5% in 2023Q2. The Q3 contraction was read moreRepeating a pattern seen in the data in recent quarters, SA real GDP contracted on a quarterly basis in Q3 following two quarters of growth. Real GDP declined by 0.2% q-o-q in Q3 after a downwardly revised increase of 0.5% in 2023Q2. The Q3 contraction was worse than the consensus forecast. While we warned that we should see a significant slowdown in GDP momentum growth, the print also disappointed relative to our expectations. MPC keeps repo rate restrictive, looks to anchor inflation expectations Date Uploaded: Nov 23 2023 9:00PM The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%. Following a tight 3-2 vote split in September, this decision was unanimous and reflects a dovish tilt within the MPC. read moreThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 8.25%. Following a tight 3-2 vote split in September, this decision was unanimous and reflects a dovish tilt within the MPC. Tough MTBPS outlines trade-offs needed as risks materialise Date Uploaded: Nov 1 2023 6:00PM The 2023 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) outlines the tough decisions needed to strike a balance between fiscal sustainability and supporting “deeper” economic reforms. Targeted spending reductions, a proposed reconfiguration of government, the read moreThe 2023 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) outlines the tough decisions needed to strike a balance between fiscal sustainability and supporting “deeper” economic reforms. Targeted spending reductions, a proposed reconfiguration of government, the introduction of additional tax measures and new fiscal anchors are on the table in order to narrow the deficit and stabilise the debt trajectory. MPC holds repo rate steady, stresses vigilance amid inflation risks Date Uploaded: Sep 21 2023 7:00PM The SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% in a split vote. We continue to expect an unchanged policy rate through 2024Q1, with the first cut of 25bps pencilled in for May 2024. Gangbuster green capex lifts growth in Q2 as imports remain firm Date Uploaded: Sep 5 2023 5:00PM At 0.6% q-o-q in 2023Q2, real GDP growth beat our above-consensus expectation of 0.5%. Mechanically adjusting the GDP outlook by keeping the same q-o-q momentum for the rest of the year as we had in July lifts the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, read moreAt 0.6% q-o-q in 2023Q2, real GDP growth beat our above-consensus expectation of 0.5%. Mechanically adjusting the GDP outlook by keeping the same q-o-q momentum for the rest of the year as we had in July lifts the real GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, from 0.4% projected in July. On-hold policy rate signals end of tightening cycle Date Uploaded: Jul 20 2023 5:45PM After increasing the policy interest (repo) rate at every monetary policy meeting since November 2021, with cumulative hikes of 475bps, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged following the latest meeting. We now expect an extended pause, followed by the read moreAfter increasing the policy interest (repo) rate at every monetary policy meeting since November 2021, with cumulative hikes of 475bps, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged following the latest meeting. We now expect an extended pause, followed by the start of a rate-cutting cycle in May 2024. Unpacking recent load-shedding and electricity trends Date Uploaded: Jul 11 2023 9:00AM Eskom’s winter outlook warned about the risk that South Africans could experience up to stage 8 load-shedding if cold temperatures caused demand to spike or if there were plant breakdowns equivalent to more than 15 GW of capacity. The risk of higher stages of read moreEskom’s winter outlook warned about the risk that South Africans could experience up to stage 8 load-shedding if cold temperatures caused demand to spike or if there were plant breakdowns equivalent to more than 15 GW of capacity. The risk of higher stages of load-shedding was heightened by the unavailability of key generation units at the Kusile, Medupi and Koeberg power stations during the winter months. However, in stark contrast to the dire warnings, there was a notably lower incidence of load-shedding in June relative to the preceding months. In this comment, we consider what drove this repriev SA skirts recession, but near-term outlook subdued amid downside risks Date Uploaded: Jun 6 2023 7:00PM The stop-start nature of SA real GDP outcomes since the 2020 crash continued in early-2023, with real GDP increasing by 0.4% q-o-q after an (upwardly) revised 1.1% quarterly decline in 2022Q4. A unanimous, hawkish 50bps hike Date Uploaded: May 25 2023 9:15PM In line with our (revised) forecast and the consensus view, the SARB MPC increased the repo policy interest rate by another 50bps, to 8.25%. Multiparty coalitions in SA: Friend or Foe? Date Uploaded: May 16 2023 3:00PM As part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus read moreAs part of our annual client conference, we hosted an expert panel of political commentators. They exchanged views on 1) projections for the 2024 elections and 2) the implications of likely post-election coalition arrangements. There was general consensus that although the ANC was likely to fall below 50% nationally, this was not inevitable. The second major takeaway was that the post-election political environment is likely to be even more volatile than in recent years. MPC delivers 50bps, with monetary policy no longer accommodative Date Uploaded: Mar 30 2023 6:45PM In a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the read moreIn a 3-2 split decision, the SARB MPC surprised financial markets and the analyst community by increasing the policy interest rate by 50bps, taking the repo rate to 7.75% (pre-COVID at 6.5%). Although a moving target, for now, we see the current level of the policy rate as the peak in the cycle. Real GDP largely reversed Q3 jump in 2022Q4 Date Uploaded: Mar 7 2023 4:45PM Real GDP performed notably worse than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, declining by 1.3% q-o-q. Special survey: Adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit Date Uploaded: Mar 6 2023 3:45PM To better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their read moreTo better understand the financial pressures faced by South African consumers and their attitude towards accessing credit, the BER commissioned a special survey at the end of 2022. The survey covered adults’ assessments of the financial situation of their households and their attitude towards using credit to buy something expensive. This comment summarises the results in PowerPoint format and also includes a link to a recording of the presentation. Large Eskom support, some relief for households and firms Date Uploaded: Feb 22 2023 7:00PM As widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt read moreAs widely expected, the 2023 Budget was dominated by the electricity crisis. Another revenue windfall and savings on expenditure in 2022/23 provided some room for manoeuvre to respond to this. Even so, as a result of Eskom receiving more than R250bn in debt relief over the next three fiscal years, government’s borrowing requirement, overall debt and interest payments are now all projected to be higher than outlined in the October MTBPS. SARB mandate change should be roundly dismissed Date Uploaded: Feb 6 2023 11:00AM In this comment, we outline why it is important to push back firmly against any efforts to undermine the SARB and its contribution to domestic macroeconomic stability. In a close call, MPC pivots to a 25bps hike Date Uploaded: Jan 26 2023 6:30PM With a sharp deterioration in domestic real GDP growth forecasts and mixed prospects for inflation, the SARB MPC scaled down the pace of policy rate hikes to 25bps.