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Petrol price (Gauteng) = 17.32/litre  Petrol price (Coastal) = 16.61/litre  CPI February '21 = 2.9% y-o-y  PPI manufacturing February '21 = 4%  GDP growth Q4 = -4.2% y-o-y  Prime interest rate = 7%  Unemployment rate Q4 = 32.5%  Retail sales January '21 = -1.6% y-o-y  Manufacturing output February '21 = -2.1% y-o-y 
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BER Comment (Archive)

Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results.

A (slight) hawkish tilt as MPC votes 5-0 for unchanged repo rate

Last updated: Mar 25 2021 5:59PM

For the fourth meeting in a row, the SARB MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.


2012Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance

Last updated: Mar 11 2021 4:29PM

The survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data read more
The survey results are consistent with some loss of momentum in the recovery process during the first quarter. Newly calculated composite indicators are presented in this presentation-style summary of the results. Clients now have access to this data electronically (as part of the RMB/BER BCI data file available for download).


Even as Q4 sustains the recovery, a depression-like GDP decline in 2020

Last updated: Mar 9 2021 3:15PM

Real GDP moderated sharply to a better-than-expected 6.3% q-o-q (annualised) during 2020Q4, from the blockbuster 67.3% in 2020Q3.


Treasury sticks to their guns as revenue windfall provides a welcome reprieve

Last updated: Feb 25 2021 6:28AM

Notwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for. read more
Notwithstanding lingering execution risks, and the fact that the outlook for SA’s public finances remains precarious, under current conditions, the 2021 budget perhaps provided the best outcome one could have hoped for.


New report reflects on progress towards NDP objectives.

Last updated: Feb 18 2021 12:13PM

In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as read more
In collaboration with a network of partners, the BER has compiled a report to measure South Africa’s achievement of its development objectives set out in the National Development Plan. The BER’s NDP Assessment Report gives a data-driven view of progress in as short and concise a format as possible. This report shows progress in South Africa’s development in some areas, though outcomes have fallen short of the NDP’s aspirations in several key indicators. Strong corrective action is needed to achieve the targets of the NDP. Success will require a collective effort by all of society – government, the private sector, churches and NGOs – to realise these goals. With the Annual NDP Assessment Report, the BER and its network of collaborators hope to contribute to the accelerated, and ultimately successful, implementation of the NDP as we traverse the journey to 2030.


Same again as policy rate on hold in a 3-2 vote split

Last updated: Jan 21 2021 6:14PM

For the third meeting in a row, the SARB MPC decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at a multi-decade low of 3.5%.


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