Economic information that works for you ResearchWeeklyCommentsResearch NotesAd-Hoc researchS.E.EStellenbosch Working Paper Series BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Last updated: Nov 1 2019 11:16AM This comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note read moreThis comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note unpacks the PMI’s relationship with official manufacturing production data and how this has changed since the domestic recession triggered by the global financial crisis in 2008/09. The note also provides some possible reasons for this change. MTBPS is 2017 all over again, with a bigger hole Last updated: Oct 30 2019 7:39PM Significantly worse revenue projections, SOE bailouts, and less-than-expected non-Eskom expenditure cuts result in a debt trajectory that is materially worse than presented in February. MPC remains focused on risks, hesitant to signal a downward interest rate cycle Last updated: Sep 20 2019 8:25AM The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50%. Business Survey Results 2019Q3: Main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Sep 11 2019 4:28PM The survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed. read moreThe survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed. Q2 GDP bounces, risks cloud second half Last updated: Sep 3 2019 2:47PM Real GDP bounced back by more than expected in the second quarter, recovering all the ground lost in the shock contraction during 2019Q1. Prescribed assets not suited to drive development Last updated: Aug 30 2019 11:17AM The possibility of a policy of prescribed assets received renewed attention in January with the release of the ANC’s 2019 election manifesto. Global concerns, weak SA growth and low inflation justify repo rate cut Last updated: Jul 18 2019 5:00PM In a unanimous decision, the MPC decided to reduce the repo policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.50%. 2019Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Jun 13 2019 2:15PM The 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price read moreThe 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price and profitability indicators continue to indicate pressure on margins, implying that the probability of a cut in the repo rate at the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting in July has increased further. Another Q1 GDP shocker erases hope of 1% growth in 2019 Last updated: Jun 4 2019 4:01PM Real GDP declined by a much larger-than-expected 3.2% q-o-q (annualised) in 2019Q1. As a result, real GDP growth may turn out to be closer to 0.5% than 1% in 2019. How South African business can contribute to sustainable land reform Last updated: May 21 2019 10:34AM Land reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to read moreLand reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to urban and peri-urban land. This comment presents some guidelines and a framework to illustrate how the private sector and individuals can make a contribution to land reform. MPC welcomes moderation of inflation expectations as repo rate kept on hold Last updated: Mar 28 2019 5:29PM As widely expected, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75%. 2019Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 13 2019 1:10PM The pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019. read moreThe pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019. Space running out to counter unforeseen expenditure Last updated: Feb 21 2019 9:02AM In many ways, the 2019 Budget was a repeat of 2018 where a large, unexpected, expenditure item forced a reprioritisation of government spending, as well as tax increases. Repo rate unchanged on notable inflation improvement Last updated: Jan 17 2019 4:50PM The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate at 10.25%).
BER Comment (Archive) Brief note intended as a more regular interface with our clients. The emphasis is to provide our interpretation of important economic events, such as South African Reserve Bank interest rate statements, and key data releases, including GDP growth figures. In addition, each quarter the BER releases a comment highlighting the key results and broader macroeconomic implications of the BER’s business survey results. 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Last updated: Nov 1 2019 11:16AM This comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note read moreThis comment provides a background overview of the BER’s manufacturing PMI. It also explains a change in the methodology, or more specifically the calculation, of the monthly PMI figure that came into effect from the October 2019 release. Finally, the note unpacks the PMI’s relationship with official manufacturing production data and how this has changed since the domestic recession triggered by the global financial crisis in 2008/09. The note also provides some possible reasons for this change. MTBPS is 2017 all over again, with a bigger hole Last updated: Oct 30 2019 7:39PM Significantly worse revenue projections, SOE bailouts, and less-than-expected non-Eskom expenditure cuts result in a debt trajectory that is materially worse than presented in February. MPC remains focused on risks, hesitant to signal a downward interest rate cycle Last updated: Sep 20 2019 8:25AM The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.50%. Business Survey Results 2019Q3: Main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Sep 11 2019 4:28PM The survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed. read moreThe survey results reveal a survival-mode business environment. Activity declined to its weakest level in ten years and pressure on margins continued. Moreover, hopes for any notable improvement in conditions were dashed. Q2 GDP bounces, risks cloud second half Last updated: Sep 3 2019 2:47PM Real GDP bounced back by more than expected in the second quarter, recovering all the ground lost in the shock contraction during 2019Q1. Prescribed assets not suited to drive development Last updated: Aug 30 2019 11:17AM The possibility of a policy of prescribed assets received renewed attention in January with the release of the ANC’s 2019 election manifesto. Global concerns, weak SA growth and low inflation justify repo rate cut Last updated: Jul 18 2019 5:00PM In a unanimous decision, the MPC decided to reduce the repo policy interest rate by 25bps to 6.50%. 2019Q2 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Jun 13 2019 2:15PM The 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price read moreThe 2019Q2 business survey results have dashed hopes of a meaningful bounceback in GDP growth in 2019Q2, by showing a consistent picture of weaker domestic demand. These trends are worrying since global headwinds are also getting stronger. The survey price and profitability indicators continue to indicate pressure on margins, implying that the probability of a cut in the repo rate at the SARB’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting in July has increased further. Another Q1 GDP shocker erases hope of 1% growth in 2019 Last updated: Jun 4 2019 4:01PM Real GDP declined by a much larger-than-expected 3.2% q-o-q (annualised) in 2019Q1. As a result, real GDP growth may turn out to be closer to 0.5% than 1% in 2019. How South African business can contribute to sustainable land reform Last updated: May 21 2019 10:34AM Land reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to read moreLand reform is a broad social challenge that requires the commitment of every South African to ensure the sustainability and prosperity of an inclusive South African economy. The land question is not only an agricultural land problem, but it also relates to urban and peri-urban land. This comment presents some guidelines and a framework to illustrate how the private sector and individuals can make a contribution to land reform. MPC welcomes moderation of inflation expectations as repo rate kept on hold Last updated: Mar 28 2019 5:29PM As widely expected, the MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75%. 2019Q1 Business survey main results and implications at a glance Last updated: Mar 13 2019 1:10PM The pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019. read moreThe pervasive deterioration in survey indicators across sectors creates the impression of an economy in a holding operation (at best) and highlights the downside risks to the GDP growth outlook for 2019. Space running out to counter unforeseen expenditure Last updated: Feb 21 2019 9:02AM In many ways, the 2019 Budget was a repeat of 2018 where a large, unexpected, expenditure item forced a reprioritisation of government spending, as well as tax increases. Repo rate unchanged on notable inflation improvement Last updated: Jan 17 2019 4:50PM The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repo policy interest rate unchanged at 6.75% (prime rate at 10.25%).