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We recently hosted a full-day conference on 6 May 2025 in Johannesburg, exploring the broad sweep of South Africa’s economic landscape. The discussions included an update on the domestic economic outlook, an analysis of political-economy risks related to the Government of National Unity (GNU), and an examination of the Trump administration’s intentions toward South Africa. The second half of the programme, featured a deep dive into phase two of Operation Vulindlela. We examined the progress being made with municipal and water reforms and showcased some of the latest research in this field. An exciting lineup of speakers listed below addressed various topical issues. BER Clients can download the presentations available.
MARKETS AND BANKING IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY: The Bureau For Economic Research at Stellenbosch recently hosted a seminar on “Markets and banking in an era of global uncertainty” on February 28th, 2025 in Stellenbosch. The seminar is part of a series of events being hosted to mark the centenary of the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Participants of the event were Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, former Chief Economist of the UK Treasury and Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist, Rand Merchant Bank. The event was facilitated By Dr Roy Havemann, Head of the Impumelelo Economic Growth Lab at the BER.
RESEARCH NOTE: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recommended that South Africa adopt fiscal rules, and the National Treasury has committed to a process of consultations on fiscal rules, and to release a discussion by the end of March 2025. This research note explores what fiscal rules are and whether they could improve South Africa’s fiscal sustainability and fiscal credibility. It highlights guiding principles and considerations for fiscal rule design and outlines a possible fiscal rule to initially stabilise debt followed by a debt reduction phase.
22.09/litre
21.30/litre
2.7% y-o-y
0.5%
0.9% y-o-y
11.00 %
3.2% y-o-y
-3.2% y-o-y
BER Weekly | 9 May
The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased by 4 points to 44.7 in April 2025. The headline PMI remained in contractionary territory for a sixth consecutive month. The respondents' commentary was decidedly more negative in April.
The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index shed three points to register a level of 45 in 1Q2025. Weaker overall profitability and business conditions largely account for the deterioration in sentiment. Activity, however, improved while the rating of the lack of new demand as a constraint was moderately lower.
The South African economy underperformed in 2024, with economic growth slowing relative to the load-shedding-ridden year of 2023. While prospects for 2025 were significantly more upbeat, the outlook has deteriorated. We have made a downward revision to our GDP growth forecast.
Read our latest economic forecast.
The release calendar will be updated each quarter. Please note that these dates may change.
Wednesday
4 June 2025
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)
Monday
9 June 2025
FNB/BER Building Confidence Index
Tuesday
17 June 2025
Absa Manufacturing Survey
Thursday
26 June 2025
FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Monday
23 June 2025
Other Services Survey
Thursday
19 June 2025
Retail Survey
Monday
30 June 2025
FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index
Monday
30 June 2025
Inflation Expectations Survey
Thursday
3 July 2025
Building Cost Report (BCIS)
The first working day of each month
Absa PMI
The first working day of each month
Update
The first week of each month
Trends
Every Friday
BER Weekly
The BER Economist Internship Programme provides practical training to appropriately qualified previously disadvantaged individuals. The programme equips trainees to function as economists in the private and/or the public sector.
