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This report covers the key domestic and international data releases over the past week. The more comprehensive BER Weekly Review (Enhanced Version) includes a detailed discussion on the main economic events and developments over the past week, a summary of upcoming data (the week ahead) and the BER’s forecast for key economic indicators. The full Weekly is only available to BER Essential Insights subscribers (sign up here – it’s only R210/month and you get more benefits) and BER Premium Insights clients.
Producer Price Inflation (PPI) for final manufactured goods came in at 2.3% y-o-y in September 2025, below the consensus forecast of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, PPI declined by 0.1%. The largest positive contributor to the annual rate was food products, beverages and tobacco products, which rose by 3.8% and contributed 1.1 percentage points (% pts). The main negative contributor was coke, petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products, which fell by 0.6% and subtracted 0.1 %pts. Due to shrinking base effects, the deflationary impact of this category continues to diminish.
Private sector credit extension growth accelerated to 6.03% y-o-y in September, up from 5.86% in August, marking the fastest increase since June 2023.
The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps in October, following another cut in September. This was in line with expectations and takes the target rate to 3.75%-4.0%, the lowest level since 2022. The vote was not unanimous; 10 members voted for the 25 bps cut, one voted for holding steady, and one voted for a 50 bps point cut. Policy makers cited an increasing downside risk to employment in recent months. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the lack of data due to the government shutdown suggests that a slowdown might be warranted.
The ECB left interest rates unchanged for a third consecutive meeting. The main refinancing operations rates remain at 2.15%, the deposit facility at 2%, and the marginal lending facility at 2.4%. The act signals confidence in the Eurozone (EZ) economy's resilience despite trade strife and geopolitical tensions. The flash estimate of EZ GDP growth showed the economy rose by 0.2% in 2025Q3, faster than the projected 0.1%. On an annual basis, growth came in at 1.3%, slower than the previous release of 1.5% but beating estimates of 1.2%. However, the region’s economic outlook remains uncertain, and policymakers will continue to be data-dependent in every meeting when deciding whether to cut rates.
EZ consumer confidence rose to -14.2 in October, the highest in eight months, from -14.9 in September, aligning with preliminary estimates. This improvement was driven by more optimistic consumer expectations regarding the general economy and a more favourable outlook for future household finances. The EZ seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in September 2025, unchanged from August 2025 and September 2024. The number of unemployed increased by 65 000 to 11.003 million. Spain (10.5%) and France (7.6%) reported the highest jobless rates, while the Netherlands (4%) and Germany (3.9%) recorded comparatively lower rates.
The German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 88.4 in October, from 87.7 in September, and beat estimates of a slight improvement to 87.8. The IFO Current Economic Assessment Index declined to 85.3 in October, from 85.7 the previous month, and fell short of the estimate of 85.5. However, the IFO Expectations Index, which indicates firms’ projections for the next six months, increased to 91.6 in October from an upwardly revised 89.8 in September.
Editor: Tracey-Lee Solomon
Tel: +27 (0)21 808 5816
Email: tsolomon@sun.ac.za
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Please refer to the glossary on the BER website for explanations of technical terms.
Friday, 31 Oct 2025
