This report covers the key domestic and international data releases over the past week. The more comprehensive BER Weekly Review (Enhanced Version) includes a detailed discussion on the main economic events and developments over the past week, a summary of upcoming data (the week ahead) and the BER’s forecast for key economic indicators. The full Weekly is only available to BER Essential Insights subscribers (sign up here – it’s only R210/month and you get more benefits) and BER Premium Insights clients.

DOMESTIC DATA

Katrien Smuts

MINING OUTPUT DECLINES, BUT SALES LOOK A LITTLE BRIGHTER

On an annual basis, mining production declined by 0.2% in August 2025, while it contracted by 1.2% m-o-m. This followed relatively strong growth in July, when mining output rose by 5.1% y-o-y and 1.2% m-o-m. The most significant negative contributors to the weaker August outcome were platinum group metals (PGMs, -3% y-o-y, -1% m-o-m), gold (-3.6% y-o-y, -3.6% m-o-m), and manganese ore (-3.4% y-o-y, -2.1% m-o-m).

The story is somewhat more positive when considering total sales in current prices, reflecting the benefit of higher commodity prices during the month. While very volatile on a month-to-month basis, it was remarkable that gold sales rose by 471% y-o-y and PGMs by 44%.  Commodity prices have continued to rise in September and October, which should support robust nominal growth over these months. However, whether that translates into volume growth remains uncertain, as it is often difficult to ramp up production on such short notice.

RETAIL DOWN FROM JULY, BUT WHOLESALE AND VEHICLE TRADE UP

Retail sales moderated in August relative to July 2025, declining by 1.2%. On an annual basis, retail sales were still up by 2.3% y-o-y, although this was slower than the 5.7% y-o-y increase recorded in July. Among the retailer types, all other retailers and hardware, paint, and glass outlets performed relatively well, contributing positively to overall growth. In contrast, sales of food, beverages, and tobacco declined in August and detracted from total retail trade performance.

Meanwhile, real wholesale trade increased by 1% m-o-m and 1.7% y-o-y in August. Despite the monthly improvement, wholesale trade volumes have trended sideways (and even declined somewhat) over the past two years in real terms (i.e., inflation-adjusted).

Motor trade sales performed well in August, continuing to rise steadily throughout 2025. Motor trade sales were up by 0.5% m-o-m and 1.9% y-o-y in August 2025. On a seasonally adjusted basis, new vehicle sales, used vehicle sales and income from fuel sales all increased on a monthly basis. In contrast, workshop income and two other categories contracted in August, dampening the overall growth rate.

INTERNATIONAL DATA

Tshepiso Maroga

EUROZONE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION EDGES DOWN

According to Eurostat, industrial production in the Eurozone declined by 1.2% m-o-m in August, following a 0.5% increase in July. The decline was broad-based, primarily driven by capital goods (-2.2%) and consumer durables (-1.6%), while non-durable consumer goods (0.1%) showed a marginal increase. Among member states, Germany and Greece recorded the sharpest decreases of -5.3% and -4.5% m-o-m, respectively.

Still in Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment index increased marginally to 39.3 in October from 37.3 in September, falling short of expectations. The modest rise reflects cautious optimism as improvements in export-sensitive sectors are expected following recent weakness. However, uncertainty regarding the global economic environment and the implementation of the government’s investment programme continues to weigh on expectations. Meanwhile, the current situation index deteriorated further to -80 (from -76.4), indicating dissatisfaction with prevailing economic conditions.

CHINA’S INFLATION FALLS AT A SLOWER PACE

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s consumer prices fell by 0.3% y-o-y in September following a 0.4% fall in August. The headline figure was largely driven by a further drop in food prices to -4.4% from -4.3%. The decline in food costs was primarily due to significant decreases in the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, and meat. On the other hand, non-food prices continued to increase further (0.7% in September vs 0.5% in August), partially offsetting the decline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 1.0% y-o-y after a 0.9% gain in August.

UK GDP EDGES UP MARGINALLY

The UK economy grew by 0.1% m-o-m in August, reversing the downwardly revised 0.1% decline in July. Of the three sectors, only production saw an increase of 0.4%, driven by a rise in manufacturing output. The construction sector fell by 0.3% as the decline in repairs offset gains in new orders, while services showed no growth for the second consecutive month. The weaker growth thus far suggests subdued Q3 growth compared to Q2.