The FNB/BER Civil Confidence Index fell to 28 in 2017Q2, from 40 in 2017Q1. This, along with 2016Q1, is the joint lowest confidence since the end of 2011. The current level of the index means that more than seventy per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with prevailing business conditions.

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 44 index points in August, after slumping to its lowest level since 2009 in the previous month (42.9 points). The improvement was broad based, with four of the five major subcomponents increasing in August. However, despite ticking higher, the key sub-indices remained below the neutral 50-point mark.

After plunging from 40 to 29 in the second quarter, the RMB/BER BCI rose by six points to a still low 35 in the third quarter. Following a collapse in the second quarter, at least business activity in general did not deteriorate further. Also, no major new unsettling political events occurred during the survey period. While the small increase in the third quarter RMB/BER BCI is encouraging, the improvement must be seen in the broader context of continued weak domestic demand, subdued business activity, low profitability (for most respondents) and heightened political uncertainty.

After increasing from -10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to -5 in the first quarter of 2017, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell back to -9 in the second quarter. Although consumer confidence levels remained depressed and not supportive of meaningful growth in household spending, levels remained above the recent low reached in 2015. The slump in retail sales growth and the decline in new car sales volumes can therefore mainly be attributed to a deterioration in consumers’ ability to spend.

Economic indicators

Key indicators

Sun Sep 24 2017 02:22:23

Rand-Dollar

13.2569

0.17%

Rand-Pound

17.8894

0.51%

Rand-Euro

15.8236

0.03%

Gold

1297.30

0.03%

Platinum

933.00

0.27%

Brent Crude EOD

56.35

0.00%

R186

8.45

0bps

R207

7.14

0bps

Share indices (Previous day's close)

Last updated: Fri Sep 22 2017 08:07:17

JSE all-share

55867

-0.00%

JSE Top 40

49549

-0.05%

US S&P 500

2501

-0.30%

German Dax

12600

0.25 %

Japan Nikkei

20347

0.18 %

Please note

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Recent releases

In the domestic section we unpack the latest decision by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Against expectations for a cut, the MPC decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. Additionally, we look at the latest consumer inflation numbers from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), which shows that August CPI inflation remained subdued. In the international section we discuss the latest interest rate decisions from the US and Japan....Get it here

Average CPI inflation expectations for 2018 remained unchanged at 5.8% in the third quarter. While analysts and business people lowered their forecasts, trade unions revised their projections upwards since the previous survey....Get it here

Average CPI inflation expectations for 2018 remained unchanged at 5.8% in the third quarter. While analysts and business people lowered their forecasts, trade unions revised their projections upwards since the previous survey....Get it here

The 2017Q3 BER Retail Survey indicates that business confidence among retailers ticked up marginally despite a deterioration in underlying business conditions. In all, low levels of consumer confidence, subdued growth in consumers’ real disposable income and tighter fiscal policy should continue to weigh on retail sales growth over coming months....Get it here

The 2017Q3 BER Retail Survey indicates that business confidence among retailers ticked up marginally despite a deterioration in underlying business conditions. In all, low levels of consumer confidence, subdued growth in consumers’ real disposable income and tighter fiscal policy should continue to weigh on retail sales growth over coming months....Get it here

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to 35 index points in 2017Q3, from 32 in 2017Q2. However, despite the slight increase in the overall confidence index, the underlying indicators (particularly activity) suggest that growth in the building sector likely continued to weaken in 2017Q3. ...Get it here

This report outline some of the key findings of the BER’s 2017Q3 Building survey, including the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index. The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to 35 index points in 2017Q3, from 32 in 2017Q2. However, despite the slight increase in the overall confidence index, the underlying indicators (particularly activity) suggest that growth in the building sector likely continued to weaken in 2017Q3. The data for 2017Q3 is also provided....Get it here

This report outline some of the key findings of the BER’s 2017Q3 Building survey, including the FNB/BER Building Confidence Index. The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to 35 index points in 2017Q3, from 32 in 2017Q2. However, despite the slight increase in the overall confidence index, the underlying indicators (particularly activity) suggest that growth in the building sector likely continued to weaken in 2017Q3. ...Get it here

The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to 35 index points in 2017Q3, from 32 in 2017Q2. However, despite the slight increase in the overall confidence index, the underlying indicators (particularly activity) suggest that growth in the building sector likely continued to weaken in 2017Q3. ...Get it here

Data reported on the domestic economy last week covered the current account balance for Q2, as well as retail and wholesale sales in July. Accordingly, SA registered its third consecutive trade surplus in the second quarter. Despite this improvement on the back of higher commodity prices, transfer payments to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) resulted in a wider gap on the current account. Meanwhile, the retail and wholesale data gave mixed signals at the start of the third quarter. Internationally, the Bank of England announced no change to its current accommodative monetary policy, though it indicated this stance could soon change. Markets interpreted these comments as hawkish, and as a result the pound gained some value in currency markets. Meanwhile, industrial production data for August was down in the US on the back of Hurricane Harvey, while in the Eurozone and China annual production growth remained on a strong footing....Get it here

Forecast publications

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects (2-year quarterly forecast) and Economic Outlook (6-year annual forecast). Where possible, the forecast sheets have been updated with the latest available information.

...Get it here

The weaker-than-expected start to the year and the constraints imposed on the economy by the rating agencies have resulted in yet another downgrade to our GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018....Get it here

The weaker-than-expected start to the year and the constraints imposed on the economy by the rating agencies have resulted in yet another downgrade to our GDP growth forecast for 2017 and 2018....Get it here

The repercussions of President Jacob Zuma’s cabinet reshuffle on March 31, and the subsequent credit rating downgrades, are likely to be felt through the medium-term forecast period (2017 to 2022). These developments will undoubtedly further constrain the medium-term prospects for the SA economy. Indeed, notable forecast adjustments include that we now expect almost no increase in SA per capita GDP over the next six years and slippage on fiscal debt metrics....Get it here

Our updated forecast is for average SA GDP growth of a modest 1.8% during 2016-21. The average is depressed by weak 2016 and 2017 numbers - growth of 2.4% is pencilled in for 2018-21. While still subdued, this is on par with the (modest) performance of 2010-15. ...Get it here

Snapshot

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Graphs of the latest monthly and quarterly South African economic and financial data. The focus is on the essential indicators to give the reader a quick overview of general economic conditions....Get it here

Weekly

In the domestic section we unpack the latest decision by Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Against expectations for a cut, the MPC decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged. Additionally, we look at the latest consumer inflation numbers from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), which shows that August CPI inflation remained subdued. In the international section we discuss the latest interest rate decisions from the US and Japan....Get it here

Data reported on the domestic economy last week covered the current account balance for Q2, as well as retail and wholesale sales in July. Accordingly, SA registered its third consecutive trade surplus in the second quarter. Despite this improvement on the back of higher commodity prices, transfer payments to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) resulted in a wider gap on the current account. Meanwhile, the retail and wholesale data gave mixed signals at the start of the third quarter. Internationally, the Bank of England announced no change to its current accommodative monetary policy, though it indicated this stance could soon change. Markets interpreted these comments as hawkish, and as a result the pound gained some value in currency markets. Meanwhile, industrial production data for August was down in the US on the back of Hurricane Harvey, while in the Eurozone and China annual production growth remained on a strong footing....Get it here

The quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) GDP growth rate in the second quarter turned out higher than most analysts expected. The implication is that SA exited the technical recession that lasted for half a year. Regarding the third quarter, the July figures for manufacturing output indicate a continuation of positive GDP growth. Meanwhile, growth in the world economy is also gaining momentum. The global composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up in August and was above the neutral-50 mark for nearly five years. Nonetheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious and decided to keep its policy interest rates at accommodative levels. In financial markets, the dollar lost some ground amid fears that hurricanes Irma and Harvey may dent US economic growth, while the oil price also increased on lower US production....Get it here

In the domestic section we unpack July’s trade balance figures as well as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and new vehicle sales data for August. The section also discusses the factory-gate inflation figures for July, which continued along its recent downward trend. In the international section we take a look at the latest US employment and (revised) GDP growth figures, as well as activity indicators out of China. While US job creation slowed in August, overall economic activity remains well supported. Similarly, Chinese activity indicators point to sustained growth in the world’s second largest economy....Get it here

On the domestic front, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released the latest consumer inflation data, as well as a report on poverty trends. The inflation data indicated a continued downward move in price pressures, which will be welcomed by consumers. The poverty report was significantly less positive, showing that poverty is on the rise in South Africa. In the international section, we unpack the latest preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the Eurozone, the US and Japan. The PMI data suggests that growth in the developed economies remained solid in August. The section also briefly refers to the speeches made by US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi at the Jackson Hole symposium....Get it here

Last week was rather quiet on the domestic data front. The main release was the June retail trade data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) which, along with the wholesale trade data, reinforced the view that the SA economy likely exited the technical recession in Q2. The improvement in the internal trade data is especially welcome given that the trade sector was the biggest drag on growth in Q1. Internationally, the focus was on monetary policy committee meeting minutes from the US and Eurozone. While both central banks were concerned about lower-than-target inflation, in the Eurozone it is largely due the fears that the euro currency will continue to strengthen against the US dollar. ...Get it here