Surveys

Inflation Expectations Documents

The second quarter survey reflects a broad-based and significant decline in the inflation expectations of the survey respondents. Inflation expectations of all three social groups, (business people, trade union representatives and analysts) declined, with the downward adjustment extending across the forecast horizon. On average, the respondents expect that headline consumer inflation will be 3.9% during 2025, then rise gradually to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.

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The second quarter survey reflects a broad-based and significant decline in the inflation expectations of the survey respondents. Inflation expectations of all three social groups, (business people, trade union representatives and analysts) declined, with the downward adjustment extending across the forecast horizon. On average, the respondents expect that headline consumer inflation will be 3.9% during 2025, then rise gradually to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.

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In the first quarter of this year, the survey respondents, on average, downwardly revised their forecast of headline consumer inflation during 2025 to 4.3%, from 4.5%. They foresee it rising gradually to 4.7% in 2027. Over the next five years, they expect it to stabilise at 4.7%, slightly above the targeted midpoint. The one-year-ahead inflation expectations of households fell to 5.7%, from 6.6% previously. It is now the lowest it has been in three years.

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In the first quarter of this year, the survey respondents, on average, downwardly revised their forecast of headline consumer inflation during 2025 to 4.3%, from 4.5%. They foresee it rising gradually to 4.7% in 2027. Over the next five years, they expect it to stabilise at 4.7%, slightly above the targeted midpoint. The one-year-ahead inflation expectations of households fell to 5.7%, from 6.6% previously. It is now the lowest it has been in three years.

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