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Detailed quarterly forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 18-24 months
Detailed bi-annual forecast report of the South African economy for the coming 5-6 years.
Excel sheets summarising the forecasts published in the latest issues of Economic Prospects.
Monthly survey of leading South African economists who forecast key macroeconomic variables.
There have been some significant developments since our last forecast update. Politically, the peaceful local elections have resulted in a government of national unity (GNU). On the economic front, the potential positive effects of a sustained period of no load-shedding in Q2 have been offset by a much weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP outcome. Indeed, the downward surprise to Q1 GDP, especially the weakness in consumer spending and private investment, has contributed to a downward revision to our full-year GDP forecast for 2024. However, we have upwardly revised our forecast for 2025.
Read MoreThe SA economy managed to avoid a technical recession and registered a slight quarterly expansion in 2023Q4. For the full year, real GDP increased by 0.6% in 2023. This was in line with our expectations and a marked slowdown from the 1.9% recorded in 2022. While we still see growth accelerate in 2024 and 2025, we have downwardly revised our forecast. The lower real GDP outcome is largely a function of a more downbeat expectation for domestic demand.
Read MoreThe SA economy managed to avoid a technical recession and registered a slight quarterly expansion in 2023Q4. For the full year, real GDP increased by 0.6% in 2023. This was in line with our expectations and a marked slowdown from the 1.9% recorded in 2022. While we still see growth accelerate in 2024 and 2025, we have downwardly revised our forecast. The lower real GDP outcome is largely a function of a more downbeat expectation for domestic demand.
Read MoreLargely due to a weaker-than-expected Q3 outcome, we downwardly revised our full-year growth forecast for 2023 to 0.6%, which we have kept unchanged in this forecast update. Some improvement logistical challenges and less intense electricity supply disruptions should see SA's real GDP growth accelerate in 2024. A further underpin to better growth in 2024 is the green energy investment drive and less pressure on the consumer helping with spending later in the year.
Read MoreIn the January forecast update, we have left our GDP growth forecast for 2023 unchanged, but have revised our 2024 forecast slightly lower as persistent bottlenecks in the logistics sector, unreliable electricity supply and diminished sentiment will likely continue to weigh on growth prospects.
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