Documents and/or reports issued to the news media and other targeted publications
Title:
Economic Prospects 2010Q1
Despite a weaker consumer spending and fixed investment forecast, the BER’s 2010 GDP growth projection (compared to October 2009) remains unchanged at 2.7%. This is mainly the result of an improved view on net exports (export view revised higher amid a faster than expected global growth recovery, while import growth is lower because of a weaker domestic demand view). Furthermore, we forecast a mild inventory rise for 2010. This is important because it is the change for inventories that impacts GDP – the sharp inventory decline in 2009 means that even a small rise during 2010 makes a big positive growth contribution. The growth recovery is expected to continue in 2011, but at a projected 3.5%, growth is expected to remain significantly below the 5% mark reached between 2004 and 2007.
