A quarterly report, containing a detailed quarter-by-quarter forecast of the SA economy for the coming 18-24 months.
Title:
Economic Prospects, 1st Quarter 2010
Despite a weaker consumer spending and fixed investment forecast, the BER’s 2010 GDP growth projection (compared to October 2009) remains unchanged at 2.7%. This is mainly the result of an improved view on net exports (export view revised higher amid a faster than expected global growth recovery, while import growth is lower because of a weaker domestic demand view). Furthermore, we forecast a mild inventory rise for 2010. This is important because it is the change for inventories that impacts GDP – the sharp inventory decline in 2009 means that even a small rise during 2010 makes a big positive growth contribution. The growth recovery is expected to continue in 2011, but at a projected 3.5%, growth is expected to remain significantly below the 5% mark reached between 2004 and 2007.
Size:
1,082 KB
Download:
(For the executive summary, click here) (For an excel sheet of the 2-year forecast, click here.)
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