The Research notes are intended to inform readers on critical issues in the macro-economic environment, which may impact on their business
Title:
no11...BER scenario forecast: 2009-2025 (Excel)
This research note considers three alternative scenarios on the outlook for the South African macro economy over the period 2009 to 2025. Firstly, the Baseline Scenario, where it is assumed that global economic growth remains below trend (albeit positive) for a number of years. South African economic growth is expected to revert back to between 3.5% and 4.0% on a sustained basis; averaging 3.7% over the longer term (2009-2025). On the other hand, the Low Road Scenario assumes that international economic growth disappoints on the downside, and that this is coupled with a less favourable domestic political situation. Under these conditions the growth performance of the SA economy is decisively less optimistic and export performance is severely constrained. The average real economic growth rate over the 2009 to 2025 period declines to 2.8%. Finally, the High Road Scenario envisages a situation where the global economic recovery surprises on the upside and coincides with favourable domesti
Please note: Only registered BER MACRO clients / subscribers can download this document.
You need to login in order to download this document. Go to our HOME page to login.
Should you experience any difficulty to log in, please contact Celeste Booysen (tel: 021 - 887 2810).
